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Nonfarm Payroll, RBA Interest rates – Week aheadBusy week ahead as September kicks in. As New Zealand and the United States elections slowly approach, the Coronavirus pandemic will most likely be the center focus for many parties and how they handle the post Coronavirus world. Here is your week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September – Germany’s Inflation and Unemployment rate Like most of Europe, Germany is experiencing an uptick in cases as a reopening of Europe too early takes its toll. However, this has not stopped protesters storming the German Government building in Berlin alongside Germany’s total cases ticked over 243,000. With prices of oil slowly increasing, analysts expect inflation to increase slightly by 0.1%. Furthermore, with Germany’s unemployment benefit allowing unemployed citizens to claim up to 67% of their previous wage, analysts predict no change in the unemployment rate at 6.4% in the week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September and Wednesday 2nd September – Reserve bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Australia’s Year over Year GDP. Australia continues to fight a hard battle with the Coronavirus, after their original strategy of having no lockdown has lead to massive spikes in Melbourne, Victoria. Australia recorded 123 new cases of the Coronavirus – all in the state of Victoria. Denita Wawn, Master Builders Australia’s Chief Executive, stated that “Our industry is facing a bath… Private sector investment is evaporating, and the government must step in to save businesses and jobs,” conveying how dire the situation is in Australia. However, the Reverse Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 0.25%. Any deviation from this consensus is most likely to move the Australian dollar significantly. Furthermore, Melbourne’s sustained lockdown has seen forecasts of GDP growth to drop to -5.3%, down 6.7% GDP growth of 1.4% in the previous quarter. Tuesday 1st September – Italy’s Markit PMI. One of the country’s worst-hit with the Coronavirus, Italy, has recorded over 268,000 cases with cases continue to spike, with newly registered cases yesterday just over 1,200. Italy is predicted to be one of the first to get a grant from the Bloc’s 750 Billion Euro grant as it suffers from worsening GDP growth pre-Coronavirus. Italy is set to release Manufacturing PMI’s to 52, slightly higher from 51.9 last month. Tuesday 1st September – Euro core inflation rate Year over Year Europe is currently experiencing a resurgence in Coronavirus cases as an early lifting of lockdowns just before Summer has forced a spike across Europe. However, many countries are against a second lockdown due to the Economic calamity it will bring. Analysts predict a drop in the inflation growth rate to 0.9%, down from 1.2% in July. Non-farm payroll – Friday, 4th September The United States continues to post daily double-digit Coronavirus cases as their total case count tops 6 Million. As elections approach in just over a month, President Donald Trump continues to let the economy open to win over voters. Non-farm payrolls are predicted to be just over 1.4 million, down from a previous 1.73 million print. As usual, we have many critical economic events that traders need to watch out for to avoid being whipsawed by the market in the week ahead. Trade Cautiously.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
EURGBP TRADE IDEA FOR THE WEEKI would like to share my trade idea for EURGBP for the rest of the week. This is just an analysis on what I am currently seeing, since NFP week is coming up we may see consolidated markets and then some explosive movements. For right now I am bearish on EURGBP along with being bearish on the dollar but I don't really trade NFP weeks I like to mostly practice. Like how I did last week for FOMC week just have an outlook of what can happen if I am correct then great if not great I will learn from my mistakes. My annotations should explain the trade idea I didn't really talk about it here because of that. I'll send another trade idea Tuesday before the London session. Till then enjoy this idea and happy trading.
by JohnnWick
USD CAD short only if NFP provides a direction of shortHello traders and analysts, we have an opportunity here for a short with Dollar strength amid risk off - only if NFP shows the right direction. As figures could be manipulated and also once the market has made it's move, we will also make ours. Technical direction: - Holding an indecision structure. - weekly is an uptrend however there is a nice reversal from 1.40 - break of the trendline and now retracing. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct. - we have made higher lows on the 2 hour - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks forming to show anticipation for the next move. COT data CAD Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 47,439 19,696 67,135 71% 29% USD index Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 21,244 10,212 31,456 67% 33% Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. We will most likely enter where we have positioned on the chart - but only if our criteria is met. Good luck and enjoy Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.07.02📌 The affinity between 'resistance' and 'overextension' Light and summery flows continue with GBP in purely technical moves. Very little to update on the fundamental here; a weak macro and political picture persists as activity remains incredibly low in the absence of confidence. There’s a lot of support stacked on the 0.90 🔑 pivot in EURGBP and 1.252x in GBPUSD. Reassessment only required with a weekly closing below/above. => Restraint in the technical sense can be conceived with the presence of resistance; but real total defence which reigns over the whole G10 board and which gives FX markets breathing difficulties, is only possible when risk is in the air. Parking in USD will remain attractive as long as the VIX remains elevated. => From a risk perspective, to what extent, we may now ask, does one need to give their stop breathing room? It is not enough to state the highs will hold as NFP can easily capture the stops and will be highly unpleasant to defend. This means we need to give some room up towards 1.258x as we will have the 1.25 quarters and halves to protect. ⚡️ US DATA PREVIEW: Primary Dealer Nonfarm Payroll estimates - RBC 8.0mn - Natwest 7.2mn - Citi 5.5mn - Morgan Stanley 5.285mn - BNP Paribas 4.5mn - Goldman Sachs 4.25mn - HSBC 4.0mn - Scotiabank 4.0mn - TD 4.0mn - SocGen 3.9mn - BMO 3.5mn - Wells Fargo 3.3mn - Credit Suisse 3.0mn - JPMorgan 3.0mn - BAML 2.8mn - Daiwa 2.5mn - Deutsche 2.5mn - Mizuho 2.5mn - Barclays 2.0mn - Jefferies 1.95mn - Nomura 1.5mn - UBS 1.5mn - Dealer Median: 3.4mn With this in mind, 3m is the headline to track.... undershoots will be positive for USD via risk whereas inline or overshoots will trigger profit taking from the recent squeeze. The ST flows in a technical sense are no less imaginative than the MT and LT swing we traded earlier in the year. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
16
United States Non-Farm Payroll posts 4.8 Million jobs in JuneUnited States Non-Farm Payroll posts 4.8 Million jobs in June, beating analysts’ expectations of a 3 million gain. The unemployment rate also fell to 11.1% in June, forecasted at 12.5%. However, permanent job losses spike 2.1 million of the 4.8 million new jobs were created in the leisure and hospitality sector. However, permanent job losses jumped to 588,000 to 2.8 Million permanent job losses. This is the second-worst month in 20 years for permanent job losses, losing to January 2009 during the Global Financial Crisis. This is on the back of the United States, topping 2.74 million total Coronavirus cases. Daily new cases increased to 52,600 from 47,000 yesterday. However, President Donald Trump stated that the employment numbers prove that the economy is “roaring back.” Donald Trump predicts a resurgence before the November election, with no reference to the state of the Coronavirus in the United States. The NASDAQ reached a record high, ending at 10,367, a 0.54% gain for the day. Other major indices edge higher, with the SP500 and the Dow Jones posting 0.12% and 0.41% gains, respectively. Interestingly to note, Gold also ended higher with futures ending at $1,788. This may be attributable to investors and traders understanding that the Coronavirus risks, especially in the United States, are still a big threat to the recovery of the economy. This is alongside major fiscal and monetary policies that have helped provide liquidity and elevating equity prices. Equity markets post record highs and macro-environment tenses Equity markets, specifically in the United States, have been resilient during an extreme macro environment. Inequality protests dividing the nation, political tensions rising domestically and internationally with the election approaching amongst China’s power grab all amidst a pandemic which caused the greatest jobs lost in United States history. With non-farm payroll posting better than expected results over the past two months, a sense of progression in the road of recovery may cloud investors and trader’s judgment. Furthermore, with the FED providing virtually unlimited support, it would be reasonable to assume that participation in this market would be met with accommodative conditions. However, the Coronavirus is still preventing many states from opening. New York is still now allowing in-person dining –from a state that has flattened the Coronavirus curve through the relatively strict lock down. Texas just imposed a mandatory face mask requirement. Florida records its highest death rate. Permanent jobs lost in the United States are still increasing. Investors and traders need to tread carefully before investing their hard-earned dollars into these propped-up markets. Trade safe.
TVC:IXIC
by BlackBull_Markets
The Best Way to Trade Nonfarm Payrolls!The unprecedented world wide Coronavirus pandemic has put the markets on edge and set expectations really low for virtually all financial data points. Considering this, Non Farm Payrolls came in very strong, or at least not as bad as expected. Stocks reacted accordingly, and this tutorial is about how stocks react to strong numbers. This occurs in three phases: Phase 1: Initial reaction - In the event of a number that the markets perceive as 'strong', stocks will rally accordingly. This usually continues until they hit a Fibonacci level or other technical level, or traders take profits. Phase 2: Retracement/Squeeze - The rally discussed above usually will continue to around 9:00am or so. Don't forget that NFP comes out at 8:30am which is before the North American open. At this point, futures traders have taken profit, and stock traders are gearing up for the open. Watch the Kovach OBV to make sure that this retracement is not a reversal! Phase 3: Continuation at open - At 9:30am, the US markets open, and stock traders clamour into trades pushing the markets up again. Stocks could retrace later on in the day, or set the stage for strong growth in the subsequent week. Hopefully this tutorial can help you set up for some good trades if you see this behavior! If you want to learn more, check us out at Ghostsquawk!
FX:SPX500Education
by quantguy
Gold NFP forecastIn the previous analysis, It was an excellent trade and reached the target zone (Please click the arrow on the chart to see the analysis). Yesterday in the US session, we tried to BUY at 1775 but got stopped out at 1774 when US PMI data released. Then the chart showed a nice rejection candle after FOMC at 1759. My clients bought at 1762-65, and it reached some of our targets already. Currently, it's still in consolidation inside 1765-1775, we all waiting for NFP, earnings, Jobless rate, and Jobless claims data. Based on the price action, I reckon if it can break out and close above 1775, XAU will keep climbing to 1783, and the final target will be at 1795. But if it breakout 1765 and can breakout and close below the trendline, I reckon XAU will fall to 1740. I rarely post an analysis that calls both sides of the possibilities, but right now, I'm neutral, it will depend on the US data, and we will react accordingly. NFP is going to be wild, please trade safely!
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by GoldCartel
7
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.07.02📍 NZDUSD : NFP Positional Play This is an example of an erroneous defence. In similar style to that of the GBPUSD position, the highs 0.652x can be defended, since it unlocks an impulsive position which is somewhat cramped via RBNZ adding more free money to the pot. Buyers attempt at breaching the highs should be opposed, we have risk in play via Covid and Brexit, not to mention bankruptcies around the globe skyrocketing. Dark clouds on the horizon despite how the politicians attempt to sell re-openings as 'independence'. NZD and High beta FX will struggle to rally as long as the market is still concerned about further lockdowns in Australia as NZ will follow their lead. Tracking the same “lines in the sand” with 0.677x AUDUSD and 0.637x NZDUSD. ⚡️ US DATA PREVIEW: Primary Dealer Nonfarm Payroll estimates - RBC 8.0mn - Natwest 7.2mn - Citi 5.5mn - Morgan Stanley 5.285mn - BNP Paribas 4.5mn - Goldman Sachs 4.25mn - HSBC 4.0mn - Scotiabank 4.0mn - TD 4.0mn - SocGen 3.9mn - BMO 3.5mn - Wells Fargo 3.3mn - Credit Suisse 3.0mn - JPMorgan 3.0mn - BAML 2.8mn - Daiwa 2.5mn - Deutsche 2.5mn - Mizuho 2.5mn - Barclays 2.0mn - Jefferies 1.95mn - Nomura 1.5mn - UBS 1.5mn - Dealer Median: 3.4mn => So if we can sum up by saying, RBNZ is preventing NZD of moving higher and is of greatest important when considering a macro positional flow. On the other hand, USD seems more appropriate as a place to park until the storm passes. What we are talking about is outguessing extreme risk for the long weekend with the NFP knee-jerk flow. A very advanced and extremely bold call. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
9
Dax daily: 02 Jul 2020Yesterday's session started with the gap closure but then buyers were short of breath. Following European PMI reports, Dax sold-off below 12 151. The price reversed back as it seems there is no volume of orders on lower levels and the area around 12 151 serves as the significant S/R boundary of the current range. Dax closed the day at break-even. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 14:30 CEST - US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Wages Today's session hypothesis Today's session started with a faster tempo, dominated by bullish traders who head up to retest yesterday's high. After yesterday's bounce off 12 151 and today's morning momentum, it seems buyers might find their strength and momentum and attempt to get away from the consolidation range, heading towards 12 494 which is now the area of our focus. Be careful as we have the NFP news release from the US as the Independence day is celebrated tomorrow and the release shifted to Thursday this time. Volatility expected.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO