ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.07.02📍 NZDUSD : NFP Positional Play
This is an example of an erroneous defence. In similar style to that of the GBPUSD position, the highs 0.652x can be defended, since it unlocks an impulsive position which is somewhat cramped via RBNZ adding more free money to the pot.
Buyers attempt at breaching the highs should be opposed, we have risk in play via Covid and Brexit, not to mention bankruptcies around the globe skyrocketing. Dark clouds on the horizon despite how the politicians attempt to sell re-openings as 'independence'. NZD and High beta FX will struggle to rally as long as the market is still concerned about further lockdowns in Australia as NZ will follow their lead. Tracking the same “lines in the sand” with 0.677x AUDUSD and 0.637x NZDUSD.
⚡️ US DATA PREVIEW: Primary Dealer Nonfarm Payroll estimates
- RBC 8.0mn - Natwest 7.2mn
- Citi 5.5mn - Morgan Stanley 5.285mn
- BNP Paribas 4.5mn - Goldman Sachs 4.25mn
- HSBC 4.0mn - Scotiabank 4.0mn
- TD 4.0mn - SocGen 3.9mn
- BMO 3.5mn - Wells Fargo 3.3mn
- Credit Suisse 3.0mn - JPMorgan 3.0mn
- BAML 2.8mn - Daiwa 2.5mn
- Deutsche 2.5mn - Mizuho 2.5mn
- Barclays 2.0mn - Jefferies 1.95mn
- Nomura 1.5mn - UBS 1.5mn
- Dealer Median: 3.4mn
=> So if we can sum up by saying, RBNZ is preventing NZD of moving higher and is of greatest important when considering a macro positional flow. On the other hand, USD seems more appropriate as a place to park until the storm passes. What we are talking about is outguessing extreme risk for the long weekend with the NFP knee-jerk flow. A very advanced and extremely bold call.
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