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NFP Day, Coronavirus Chronicles, Pound WeaknessThe main event of today will be the publication of official statistics on the US labor market. On average, experts expect a gain of 162K. This is more than it was in the previous month, but less than the average value for the last couple of years. In general, it is worth noting that the trend towards a decrease in the number of newly created jobs with each new publication of data is becoming increasingly apparent. After the peak values of 2014 (then about 3 million new jobs were created during the year), the indicator was constantly decreasing, with the exception of 2018, when Trump's tax reform affected, but already in 2019, the effect had exhausted itself. So the US labor market in 2020 looks rather vulnerable. Especially in light of the coronavirus epidemic, which continues to gain momentum: the number of deaths is close to 600, and the number of deaths is close to 30,000. Quarantine continues, and more and more countries completely or partially interrupt a transport connection with China. In this light, data on the US labor market may well be unpleasantly surprising. The only thing that holds us back from frankly negative forecasts is the excellent employment figures from ADP (+ 291K). Although they can play a trick on the dollar because against the background of such numbers, almost any statistics on the NFP will seem weak. In total, we will not be surprised at the weak NFP figures, but we would not dare to put on this forecast. Instead, we offer traditional news trading in a pair of USDCAD. Recall that in parallel with the data from the United States will be published statistics on the labor market of Canada. That is, the USDCAD pair has a chance of a double impulse with no obvious direction. So a minute before the publication of data, we place pending orders such as stop orders for purchases and sales at 20-25 points from the current price at that time. And just waiting for the data. If there is a situation with data overlay (positive for the Canadian dollar and negative for the American or vice versa), then we remain in position until the end of the day. To other news and events of yesterday. In the foreign exchange market, the pound was under pressure amid growing investor concern over the outcome of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. We believe that the parties will agree. In the end, the United States and China were able to enter the first phase, let alone Britain and the EU. So pound purchases remain one of our favorite forex positions. For other assets and markets, buying gold and the Japanese yen is still a priority. But with oil we, perhaps, will wait a while. The asset can not decide who it is - buyers and sellers - so we'll wait for more clarity. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been agreeing on something for three days. The outcome of the negotiations could potentially blow up the oil market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
Institutional Weekly and Daily SUpply for USD/CADDear Traders, Based on NFP later today, this swing trade can be interesting this afternoon of next week! If we see a slight push up today based on news or being a fake breakout to the upside, I am expecting a strong pullback down. Monthly: The monthly chart is sitting at a long-term bearish trendline, which almost always results into a nice daily pullback. The Weekly: The Weekly chart is in a bearish run and in need of a pullback, based on our weekly strategy, it is very likely to see a push down from here based on the clean fresh supply area. (Even though the zone is not 100% valid) The Daily: This time frame is used for timing, price is sitting in fresh daily supply and has been decelerating for a while now, based on the news incoming it is recommended to take it as a swing trade with an entry on top of the daily wicks. This way you're triggered in when it looks like a bull trap. Let's see how this one goes. Our community is currently positioned in EUR/USD Shorts since monday, which are running very nicely.
Short
by newcapitalfx
Week results - between Brexit the NFPThe main event of the previous week was not a meeting of the Bank of England or even a decision of the Fed (both the Central Banks left monetary policy parameters unchanged). This is not data on US GDP (annual growth rates have been the weakest since 2016: 2.3% in 2019 compared to 2.9% in 2018), but the coronavirus epidemic in China. Yes, so far the epidemic has been localized in China. But this is not easier. The magnitude of the coronavirus epidemic has already exceeded the 2003 SARS. And the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of coronavirus a global emergency. So last week, the markets were busy on the one hand counting the victims of the epidemic (more than 300 deaths and more than 15,000 cases), and on the other hand, counting the economic damage. China extended the New Year weekend for another week. That is, another week 2/3 of the Chinese economy will be closed. The magnitude of the losses is not yet clear, as the epidemic continues, but it is already clear that we are talking about tens of billions of dollars. The chances of China's GDP growth rate dropping below 6% now seem almost 100%. So the fears and concerns of the global recession have intensified. The Chinese stock market today is trading in a deep minus (about -8%) despite all the efforts of the Government and the Central Bank. Despite such a regrettable situation, trading is an opportunity that can and should be taken advantage of. For the long-term, it is worth selling in super bought stock markets, but in the medium-term and locally, the purchase of safe-haven assets (gold and the Japanese yen) and the sale of risky assets such as the Russian ruble look great. Actually, we voiced this plan last week, but as the epidemic grows, the relevance of our positions only grows. Another significant event of the past week was Brexit. On January 31, Great Britain officially left the EU. We already wrote that buying pounds remains one of the best trading opportunities at FOREX in terms of potential in 2020. Whether it is implemented or not will show the progress of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. But if successful, a pound above 1.40 could very well become a reality. The upcoming week will be saturated with various kinds of macroeconomic statistics. But the main attention will still be focused on Friday statistics on the US labor market and NFP figures. Our thoughts and forecasts on this subject will be described closer to Friday. In the meantime, we continue to monitor the development of the epidemic and investor sentiment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2
It's a long time i am not posting analysis.. but i am back.BUYEUI don't remember last time i posted one of my analysis. It's passed so much time... but i think it's time to get back and share my ideas. So, here you are a fresh signal before the NFP. EURUSD has made a consecutively 4 bear bars on weekly charts. History is clear, usually when EU is too much oversold... pullback is coming hard. Next, we are on important pullback zone. 1.100 is an important price, and looking on H1 tf i can clearly see a MACD divergence, that can anticipate a rally up. I suggest you to wait eu to come back to 1.10100 again before buying, or enter now with small size and buy again later. The target are marked with red lines, also the possible retracement. What do you think guys? Hope you appreciate :) I'm back :) Simo
Long
by SaliJournal
1
Ambiguous NFP and a busy week aheadLast week ended for the dollar is not the best way. Statistics on the US labor market came out slightly worse than expected: +145K new jobs outside agriculture instead of the expected +160K. On the one hand, it’s okay, but on the other hand, after +200K of employment from ADP, it seems to be not enough. On the whole, our predictions for NFPs based on statistical laws can be justified: two excesses by the fact of the forecast must be followed by lag from expectations. Perhaps the most annoying thing for us happened in the USD/CAD pair. Recall, we recommended news trading. And the news came out almost ideal for reducing the pair: relatively weak data on the USA against the background of strong data on Canada (employment +35K with a forecast of +25K). But the decline in USD/CAD was very limited and earnings of 15-20 points cannot be considered as such. Total, the week is clearly an asset to the dollar, but so far we see the growth of the dollar exclusively as an opportunity for its sales to be more expensive. And the numbers on the NFP have more likely confirmed our position than disproved. So this week we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales. The main candidates for this are the pair with the Japanese yen and the British pound. The first is interesting to us as an asset-refuge and just the entry points themselves are magnificent. As for the British pound, Brexit is confidently moving in the right direction, but the pound has lingered. Accordingly, we expect that already this week he will rush to catch up. In our opinion, another interesting asset for trading this week is gold. The inability of sellers to sell 1550 is the best confirmation of the appropriateness of buying gold. In any case, the deal is worthwhile: with relatively small stops (placed below 1440), goals can be set very ambitiously. Recall, we believe that gold should test 1800 this year. The new week promises to be quite saturated with macroeconomic statistics, especially in the USA and Great Britain. Which, again, will almost certainly be accompanied by the appearance of points for entering positions.
Short
by Trade24Fx
4
Understanding NFP. Was it bullish or bearish for Gold?So, we got December NFP on Friday and here are takeaways: New Jobs – 145K vs. 165K expected. BIG MISS! Wage growth – 0.1% vs. 0.3 expected. BIG MISS! Unemployment: 3.5%, unchanged from November. I managed to close my Gold position in small profit despite betting on the opposite NFP guess (ready my previous post). Subsequent price action indicated that the bullish spike had to be short-lived. There was also a hint from data about that but what was the key inference? With unemployment at record low of 3.5%, lower-than-expected new jobs count could be affected by WORKERS SHORTAGE, which is a sign of OVERHEATING rather than cooling. Counterintuitive, eh? Yeah we have to read the fine print and in the run up to 4 or 5 previous NFP reports I read many anecdotal stories that firms are struggling to hire. If you want even less evident point about that here it is: At this low unemployment rate, the candidates being hired were likely to be out of labor for a longer time => more time and costs involved for their training what acts as a constraint for hiring and wage growth. While stagnant wage growth just strengthens the case ( that we already know ) that Fed won't make policy shifts at least until the end of 2020. No change in expectations - little reaction from the assets side. That’s why separate reports like December one with no confirmation from the unemploymen t figure may be discounted by the markets. Today, Gold is down by 0.40% as the focus shifts to signing ceremony of the US-Sino trade deal. Expect further cooling and price searching for support test on generally calm and positive market sentiments. Price targets: 1540 and 1535 per troy ounce.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by PipVision
1
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Jan20,Wk2A pretty bullish run towards Point D completion does create some restrain in shorting this pair. When a likelihood of another war breaks out in the middle-east region, often not USD is viewed as the safe-haven currency. Many has changed over the years, people start to take JPY, CHF, Gold and even Bitcoin as the safe haven. Well, is always better to be safe than sorry, I'm waiting for a retest on the resistance before engage for a shorting opportunity. If a retest didn't occur then I'll engage this trade for a short-term short on the new sell-zone.
Short
by RaynLim
EURUSD NFP & My Crazy Eye 1HR - #HOKCAPITALFor the Japanese Yen Household spending rose by 2.6%, month-on-month, following on from an 11.5% slide in October. Economists had forecast a 9.8% decline. Year-on-year, spending fell by 2%, however, which was worse than a forecasted 2.5% rise. In October, spending had fallen by 5.1%. According to the Statistic Bureau, There were heavy falls in spending on education (-17.1%), furniture & household utensils (-13.1%), clothing & footwear (-6.8%), and housing (-4.1%). Spending on fuel, light & water charges (-1.5%) and on transportation & communication (-0.1%) also declined. There were increases in spending on medical care (6.0%), culture & recreation (3.4%), and food (0.2%), however. The fall in spending, year-on-year, came in spite of disposable income rising by 2.7%, supported by a 1.9% rise in income. The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.52 to ¥109.517 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥109.56 against the greenback.
by jdroyalty
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.09.01I demonstrated the flows earlier in the move before it played out, there was a winning move in December and the main line comes after: It comes down to the pursuit of seller stops; they have been forced to flee, but the flight itself has been riddled with challenges as more and varied geopolitical risk is conjured up. As I pointed out in the first week of the new swing, the lows led to the pursuit: EUR starting to look interesting again and I started to buy 1.1100/25 as the safe-haven bid into USD starting to fade. With a pinch of luck it will be the low of the week into NFP. Not assigning much room for further downside here, for the sake of practice, let us take another look at the position in the European macro diagram: The technical flows which follow make clear the connection between the base and the breakout. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Buying here makes sense to me heading into NFP with 1.128x targets. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
Pre-NFP Analysis (Geo Polisci)NFP meets expectations: Dollar’s (DXY) had a nice rebound, clearing the short-term range-high up to it’s current descending trend; channel-top. Also, confluences in 97.5 is a huge key level and also support for the Euro at similar prices respectively. There are a lot of USD based pairs at support and I think today will result in a continued trend to the upside. The ADP figure earlier this week (govt figures) was stronger, and thus leading expectations of a 100 DXY. NFP can lift the dollar here, but by how much is unknown. I don’t think so. Alternatively : If NFP misses, Dollar is at resistance (growth and monetary policy) I think the path of least resistance with negative numbers is a DXY tanking towards lower support levels. Risk: The FED signaled it will continue to fund short term lending towards April, which is a problem, meaning that the lending market is seized up. The FED needs to by dynamic and stay ready to address negative rates (a growing question) if a new financial problem arises this year. Looking at U.S. equities, it’s worth repeating that the SPX out performs on short term basis and has done so for over 10 years. U.S. equities are also the benchmark for other developed economies. The backdrop of risk-on sentiment vs risk-off right now isn’t normal. The risk-on isn’t sought now for the yield. Make sure you know that. As investors in an economy are more willing to take risk, with less return to be had, what does this sort of market do? It chances momentum. Capital gains (buy high, sell higher) is what is sought, not the rates of return (the book value). This leads to a very anxious and unsteady sentiment across equity, FX, and commodity markets. An underlying tale that I’m watching is emerging markets not reflecting the new all-time highs seen by U.S. equities. I think the decline in fear and the high level of exposure the markets have NOT in cash, is a troubling sign that market sentiment is hanging over the edge of an ever-falling cliffs edge. I think the take away is this: it’s easier to knock a market off pace if it’s based significantly on passed conviction. The risk-on right now isn’t robust--it’s simply opportunism at its finest. If the NFP numbers today suggest some sort of a decline in growth, we can see a lower DXY. How comfortable are you from accepting the fact that this market is building with record exposure with no concern that it will fall against fundamental winds? It’s complicated without question. Risk trends and the pricing of risk through something like the VIX, you can see suppression even taking into account what’s happened in Iran over the last 7 days. The volatility of emerging markets is low as well, with high speculative exposure across the board. This is the perfection of pricing in no worries; however, I think we can all agree to a few things. Iran vs U.S. is a hot topic. Crude is going to suffer from any fundamental events, regardless of the fact that Iran doesn’t produce a lot of oil, they do have a history of manipulating supply chains. The U.S. hasn’t “reacted” to the air base being mortared—combining the economic sanctions (the reversal of Iran backing out of the nuclear treaty) and new protests, the markets assume that it’s all behind us. This is pretty crazy to me and I think it’s important to watch oil for short, medium, and long-term opportunities regarding this theme.
TVC:DXY
by TayFx
6