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Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP It's US jobs week. Which gives us at least three trading opportunities, scattered out nicely over the whole week. First is the JOLTs Job Openings report. Second is the ADP Employment Change report. Finally, we have the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Let's look at what happened last month: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs. Economists forecast by TradingEconomics had estimated 240,000 jobs. Another huge miss in the NFP report this month could weaken the dollar. The market seems poised to interpret any indication as a signal that the Federal Reserve might cut rates sooner than anticipated. And even with a weaker-than-expected NFP, the market might just be looking at the headline. JPMorgan Chase highlighted during last month's report that "other employment indicators suggest there is no imminent weakening in the labor market." Additionally, these figures are preliminary and often revised in subsequent weeks. For instance, March’s nonfarm payroll gains were revised up to 315,000 from 300,000.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
June 03, DXY & GBPUSD: Trading Insights for the Week Ahead!Greetings, Traders! Brief Description🖊️: We are in the first week of June, a period marked by high-impact news, including the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. In this video, I will provide an in-depth analysis of the DXY and GBPUSD pairs, offering valuable insights for the upcoming week in trading. Things We Will Cover👀: Lecture on Draw On Liquidity🧠: Understanding how to analyze the market objectively. Studying key concepts such as Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), order blocks, mitigation blocks, breakers, and more. Market Analysis📉📈: DXY and GBPUSD: Detailed analysis of these pairs to uncover potential trading opportunities for the week ahead. Draw On Liquidity: Understanding what the draw on liquidity is for this week and how it impacts our trading strategies. What's Important Now❗ Stay tuned to gain a comprehensive understanding of market analysis and to identify profitable trading opportunities in the upcoming week. Best Regards, The_Architect
by The_Archi-tect
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials. Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations. Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs. Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
by BlackBull_Markets
NFP/USDT READY FOR AN ATH!!Hey everyone! If you enjoy this content, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis. NFP looks good here. NFP recently broke out of a falling wedge pattern. This could be a sign of a trend reversal and potential bullish momentum. Buy some here and add more in the dip. Entry range:- $0.46-$0.50 Targets:- $0.62/$0.84/$0.98/$1.16 SL:- $0.40 Let's Discuss! What are your thoughts on NFP's current price action? Do you see a bullish pattern? Share your analysis in the comments below!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
Trade Idea for NFPrompt (NFP) - Accumulation StrategyNFPrompt (NFP) is currently trading around $0.4901, showing an increase of 4.32% in the last 24 hours and a 10.78% rise over the past 7 days. The market cap stands at approximately $120.75 million, with a circulating supply of 250 million NFP out of a total supply of 1 billion​. Begin building a position at the current price of around $0.4901. This entry point provides a strategic basis given the recent positive price movement and market interest. Plan to accumulate more NFP tokens if the price drops to $0.42 and further to $0.38. This phased buying approach allows for averaging down the entry price and maximizing holdings during market corrections. Set take-profit targets at $0.63, $1.05, and $1.60. These levels are chosen based on potential resistance points and historical price movements, aiming to capture substantial gains as the market appreciates. NFPrompt is an AI-driven User Generated Content (UGC) platform designed for Web3 creators. It offers various AI tools for creating NFTs, including images, videos, and music. The platform also features a community hub and an AI-powered NFT marketplace, enhancing its utility and adoption potential in the creative and blockchain sectors​​. The recent price performance and volume suggest increasing investor interest and trading activity. Monitoring ongoing developments, such as new features or partnerships, will be crucial for adjusting the investment strategy. Accumulating NFP at strategic price points leverages market volatility and the project’s innovative approach to combining AI with blockchain technology. The phased profit-taking strategy aims to optimize returns while managing risk. This trade idea is based on current market data and NFPrompt’s strategic positioning as of May 2024. Cryptocurrency investments carry inherent risks, including the loss of principal. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances and risk appetite before engaging in cryptocurrency trading. This analysis is not financial advice.
Long
by icordkaz
#NFP/USDT#NFP We have a bearish channel pattern on a 12-hour frame, the price moves within it, adheres to its limits well, and is expected to break it upwards strongly. We have a support area at the lower border of the channel at $0.400 from which the price rebounded We have a tendency to stabilize above moving average 100 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break higher, supporting the price higher Entry price is 0.4848 The first target is 0.5800 The second goal is 0.6840. The third goal is 0.7824
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
⭐️ XAU/USD : CPI is coming , Bull or Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart in the 2-hour timeframe, we observe that after the price drop to $2332, there was a demand surge, allowing the price to rise to higher levels as expected. After the price entered the Bearish BB zone at $2372, we saw a price drop to $2368. Currently, the price is trading around $2370, and in a few hours, we will have the important US CPI data. If the actual rate is higher than the forecasted rate, it could lead to a further drop in gold prices. Conversely, if the rate is lower than the forecasted rate, we might see a rebound in gold prices to levels above $2400. The supply zones are $2372 to $2378, $2389 to $2399, and $2409 to $2418. The demand levels are $2356 to $2361, $2332 to $2337, and $2306 to $2315. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
10
Factors Driving Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Up Analysis: Factors Driving Gold Prices Up Here is why we think it will go up (FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS) Weak NFP Report and Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The recent Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish job growth in the United States. This unexpected weakness has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Impact of Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the health of the US economy, and a weaker-than-expected report suggests economic challenges. Which helps the fight against inflation. Potential Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often viewed as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and inflation. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Here is what to watch out for that might stop it from going up: Market Response and Federal Reserve Policy Decisions Market participants should closely monitor any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. If it becomes more likely for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates, well expect gold prices to plummet. Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Developments: It's important to stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments that could impact gold markets. Any shifts in these factors could alter the trajectory of gold prices. (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS) Trade setup explained: Take-Profit is set at 2344 due to a strong resistance line there (see white horizontal line) Stop-Loss is set at 2311 which is right under 2315, 2315 has been showing stronger support. Conclusion: The weak NFP report and the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to upward pressure on gold prices. However, market participants should remain vigilant and assess the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. By monitoring economic indicators and central bank policies, investors can make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading. Like always use proper risk-management. Greetings, Zila
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OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
32
EURUSD - 📈 => 📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), EURUSD rejected our blue circle zone and traded higher. What's next? 📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish long-term , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red. Currently, EURUSD is approaching the upper bound of the wedge pattern. Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
AUD/USD hits one-month high, RBA decision nextThe Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, a 12-year high. The central bank has maintained rates three straight times and there is a strong likelihood that the rate statement will be hawkish, as inflation in the first quarter dropped from 4.1% to 3.6% but was above the market estimate of 3.4%. Inflation has come down significantly but remains sticky as the RBA tries to bring it back down to the 2%-3% target range. The RBA is making its rate decisions based on the data and that has the markets guessing as to what the rate path will look like. A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range before 2025. If inflation resumes its downward path in the next few months we could see a rate cut in November but at the same time, the risk of a rate hike has increased since the Q1 inflation report. As well, the job market has been tighter than anticipated, which makes it more difficult to lower rates. The RBA was very late in starting its rate-tightening cycle and policy makers will be very hesitant to lower rates until they are confident that inflation won’t rebound. US nonfarm payrolls eased to 175,000 in April, well below the market estimate of 240,000. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, above the forecast of 3.8%. Wage growth rose 0.2% m/m, lower than the 0.3% gain in March and shy of the market estimate of 0.2%. We haven’t seen all three components of the employment report miss their estimates for quite some time, which could point to cracks in the US labor market. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6606 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6564 0.6651 and 0.6693 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GOLD BUY WEAK NFP It's essential to understand that gold prices are influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic data and central bank policies. Recently, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key indicator of economic health in the United States, came in weaker than expected. This unexpected weakness in job creation has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may be inclined to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth. The correlation between weak economic data, such as a lackluster NFP report, and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can significantly impact gold prices. Here's how: Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the employment landscape of the United States. A weaker-than-expected report suggests sluggish job growth, which can dampen confidence in the economy and raise concerns about future economic performance. Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. In times of economic instability or anticipation of looser monetary policy, investors may flock to gold as a safe haven asset. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Now, let's integrate this understanding into our analysis of gold's current trajectory: Given the recent weak NFP report, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may opt for interest rate cuts to support the economy. This has injected a sense of uncertainty into the market and bolstered demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Consequently, we've seen an upward pressure on gold prices as investors seek refuge from economic volatility. In light of these developments, it's crucial to consider the potential implications for gold's future movements. Any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions will be closely monitored by market participants, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. CONCLUSION: Thats why we have put the buy order right on 2300 levels and a potential take profit on 2330, this is because there is a big resistance level there. Furtermore you can use the TradingView tools horizontal line that mark the support and resistance level which is very convenient. As we navigate these dynamics, it's important to exercise caution and remain vigilant in assessing the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. Market participants should stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of NFP. Rise to 2328 or fall to 2250?FX:XAUUSD decreases volatility, smoothly moving into a consolidation phase before the publication of NFP. The market structure is bearish and the overall fundamentals are negative. What should we wait for? Today is quite a busy news day, but all attention is focused on NFP. The gold market is locally bearish and set for further decline. Breakout of 2295 and price consolidation below this area will form a bearish potential. But on the news background anything can happen, like a shakeout to 2328 before a further fall to 2250, or an attempt to break the trend resistance.... Resistance levels: 2305, 2328, 2346 Support levels: 2295, 2280, 2267 Technically and fundamentally the market is weak and ready to conquer the lower liquidity zones, but there is news ahead. It is impossible to determine the movement in advance, but based on the general data, there is a probability to see the continuation of the decline. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
3
⭐️ XAU/USD : NFP's effects on $GOLD (IMPORTANT ANALYSIS)Upon reviewing gold in the weekly timeframe, we observe that the price is trading around $2298. If the NFP data is announced to be higher than the forecasted rate, it will strengthen the dollar index and consequently cause a significant drop in gold prices! Should this occur and gold stabilizes below $2300, we can expect a fall in gold prices to lower levels such as (in order) $2268, $2243, $2229, and $2222. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
Strifor || GBPUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The fact of recovery is also visible on the pound chart. Here we also have both scenarios activated that we published at the beginning of the week. Before the NFP , the bullish mood remains, and an approach to the level of 1.26000 is expected. You can also consider level 1.26500 as an additional target. In the short term, the pound is most likely to strengthen, but in the medium term, we will have to look at the facts. Growth towards the level of 1.28000 depends on many factors, the formation of which must take time. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || EURUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Before the NFP , we adhere to the buy priority and scenarios that we've outlined at the beginning of the week. The likelihood of the US dollar's main competitors strengthening is high. However, we are talking more about short-term strengthening today. Over the longer term, the US dollar is likely to resume its global growth. For the euro , both scenarios have been activated, and today we do not consider growth above 1.08000 . Those who are not yet in the trade can consider entering through pending orders before the publication of labor market data. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || AUDUSD-30/04/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Before the Fed meeting on major currency pairs, a rather uncertain situation has developed, and the best option will most likely be to refrain from trades and make a decision on entry after the interest rate decision. However, the most likely scenario is in favor of buyers. At the moment, the best option would be to look for an entry point near the support level of 0.64906 . We consider two scenarios near this level, where scenario №1 is about a rebound trade, and scenario №2 - a false breakout. The growth target in both cases is the level of 0.66000 . If, after the Fed , the price falls below the support level of 0.64906 and cannot recover, then you should not count on growth in the medium term. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
3
Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British currency continues to struggle at the level of 1.25000 , and despite everything, so far everything is working out more in favor of the buyer. The week is filled with events and here, just like in the euro, you need to be ready to change your original plan. The most likely scenario is a breakout of the level of 1.25346 and further growth to the level of 1.26000 (scenario №1). Today, the goals are modest against the backdrop of the upcoming Fed meeting, after this event, in the event of a positive outcome for the main competitors of the US dollar , it will be possible to count on growth to 1.28000 . Scenario №2 will become more active if the US dollar strengthens against the backdrop of upcoming events, but medium-term purchases in this case will be relevant. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: At the beginning of the new week, the euro remains on the buy list, especially if we are talking about the prospect of 1-3 days (before the Fed meeting on Wednesday). This event, as well as the NFP , forces one to be as flexible as possible and be prepared for changes in trading plans at the beginning of this week. Nevertheless, growth is still more likely, but unfortunately, the targets are not as promising as last week. This week, as part of the growth, targets above 1.08000 are not yet being considered. If the dollar's weakness is demonstrated, one can count on growth towards 1.09000 , where there is a large liquidity zone. Two scenarios are considered, where the more likely scenario №1 says about growth near the level of 1.07225 (breakout trade). A less likely scenario №2 is about the strengthening of the US dollar on Wednesday, within which we can expect a fall to the level of 1.06500 . But since technically there is still a possibility of growth to 1.08000 , then in the event of this fall, we can consider going long again according to scenario №2 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
USD/CAD analysis before NFP(5/3/2024)After a short correction USD/CAD FX:USDCAD has made a sharp break out and pulled back on the discount zone. it's likely the price telling us that USD/CAD is going to reach higher prices. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.
Long
by fortunamarkets
Pound edges higher as UK Services PMI beats estimateThe British is in positive territory on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2555, up 0.16% at the time of writing. The service sector accelerated in April, as the Services PMI rose to 55.0, up from 53.1 in April. This was the strongest level since May 2023 and services has shown growth for six straight months, with readings above the 50 level. The PMI survey noted that business and consumer spending were higher in April and reflective of an improving UK economy. The positive report has given the British pound a slight boost on Friday. The US labour market has remained surprisingly strong and has weathered the Federal Reserve’s steep rate hikes. The March nonfarm payrolls report sizzled at 303,000, well above expectations. The April data is unlikely to be as strong, but the market forecast of 243,000 would indicate that the labour market remains tight. The markets will be keeping a close eye on wage growth, which contributes to inflation. Wages rose 0.3% m/m in April and are expected to remain unchanged in the April release. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%. The Federal Reserve reiterated at this week’s meeting that inflation remained too high to lower rates. Still, the markets were relieved that Fed Chair Powell appeared to rule out the next rate move being a rate hike and that sent the US dollar lower against the major currencies. Just one month ago, the markets had fully priced in a rate cut in September but the probability has fallen to 61%, with a 73% probability of a cut in November. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2563 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.2590 1.2517 and 1.2490 and providing support
by OANDA