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AUDUSD based on no QE See annotations, and linked idea below. The QE announcement will have an effect on the longer term value of the pair; we will outline the possible effect on both scenarios. We believe QE will not go ahead any time soon, if it does it will be announced mid next year (June) – even though very unlikely. However, we can expect a gradual decline in interest rates (continued trend since 2011) with the attempt to boost economic growth. Even with low interest at 0.75% GDP targets have not been met. Therefore, we can expect interest rates to be reduced to 0.50% then potentially 0.25% - a bearish effect on the AUD. We however predict that interest rates will remain the same on the upcoming Tuesday announcement and can expect a reduction of interest later next year. As bullish structure is presented around 0.67500 we can potentially anticipate price accelerating to the upside of 0.6900-0.7000 before continuation to the downside. This could also be a great correlation with the assumptions and timeline we have established above. Furthermore, adding to our assumptions, further confluence for upside can be due to the Chinese official November PMI announced over the weekend which beat the market estimates; having an effect on the USD do the the trade wars. Later in the week we have the US ISM Non-manufacturing data being announced which will have an effect on the smaller time frames (hopefully in time for the shorter term correction). We then finish off the week with non-farm payrolls which we believe will be a surprise as the job market according the US reports and data is said to be positive. This also should have an effect on the chart from the H4 and below. In a brief outline and conclusion, we have briefly discussed our assumptions and attempted to put a timeline together in conjunction with price; we therefore believe price will reach 0.6900-0.7000 before further downside acceleration continues. As outlined we will now demonstrate how price will be effected if QE goes ahead and if QE does not go ahead. Once we have demonstrated these scenarios we will provide a forecast for the potential upside move to 0.6900-0.7000.
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
USDJPY SELL LIMIT PENDING AROUND 110.000 (WEEKLY TIMEFRAME)Good morning traders from the UK. Time to look at the the higher timeframes on this one. We are stepping out and looking at the bigger picture that could impact this pair sooner rather than later. With 2020 looming it's good to see what the end the of this year COULD look like and how that may affect the pair moving into the first half of the year. -Weekly timeframe downtrend. We are looking for a third touch of the top descending trend line, This being my first level of resistance. In and around the 110.00 I have FIVE resistance levels across the weekly and monthly timeframe. Secondly a weekly key level (turquoise horizontal line), which we could see a false breakout upwards to suck in retail traders. The daily has to dojis just underneath this resistance level. Again this shows indecisiveness in the market NOT a change in direction. Which makes me feel we could still pop up 50 pips to the 110.000 physiological level and stop out a few early sellers. The weekly candle closure sits perfectly underneath my weekly resistance at 109.500. Coincidence? Thirdly, the pink trend line is from my monthly timeframe where the first point is from June 2016, the start of and uptrend. price did break the uptrend and is looking like it will retest this longterm trend line in and around the 110.00 mark. We also have a Simple moving average at 110.00 which acts as a level of resistance on the higher timeframe where the MA's are in a downtrend movement. The SMA is my fourth high timeframe resistance The fifth level of resistance is the 61.80% fibonacci retracement level. Again we have floated in and around this level for weeks. currently we have had to touched of the 61.80, price could be exhausted and tumble back towards the downside. This leads us nicely into mentioning that we are in counter uptrend within a yearly downtrend shown on my weekly timeframe by the highlighted grey box. Our weekly candle on 04 November is acting as a inside bar formation. I would not say that we have created a higher high this week due to the candle closure being in line with the top of the inside bar. This could show that over the past few weeks with have been moving sideways at the end of a uptrend. could this be the start of the downtrend? As we lead into December and the festive period the first 2 weeks of this month we may see a lot of movement before the holidays begin. One to look out for. Next week check put you economic calendar as it is jam packed with upcoming news that could push this pair in a direction. My personal opinion the DXY will begin to lose strength. This will also assist with my longterm bias of UJ short. Trade safe good risk management but all importantly go get those pips!!! Travis Duncan Instagram - Travis_duncz www.rebirthholdings.co.uk
Short
by Travis_duncz
Trade Ideas Position: USDSGD BatBullish Bat setup for a trading opportunity and this can attribute to the US NFP to give a final push to the entry price, the PRZ and PEZ. I don't usually trade USDSGD, but the stats on my end shows well when it works on Bat Pattern on the daily chart. I will be watching closely for this setup and decide if to engage the trade. Business owners who like to pay off in USD with a weaker USD and stronger SGD, you may like to make a decision today or by Monday. You see Forex can be used for trading, business decision and investment purposes. End of the day is still currency and it has its value.
Long
by RaynLim
Unrealized potential and plans for the futureJapan, Canada and the USA central banks' decisions, U.S. and Eurozone GDP latest statistics, as well as data on the US labour market 7 days latest news. In principle, each event from this list would be enough to fill the average week. As for the political aspect: a signal about possible problems in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the next parliamentary elections in the UK and ongoing impeachment process against Trump. The absence of significant movements in the foreign exchange market last week surprised us. The change of more than 100 points +/- was observed in most pairs. However, we consider this rather as an opportunity for trading, since unrealized potential has accumulated in prices. Accordingly, we plan to take up its implementation in the current week. Perhaps the greatest potential has accumulated in the US dollar. The Fed rate cut (the third in 2019) was unnoticed by the markets. Statistics on the US, which came out last week, although was better than forecasts (GDP and NFP), still made it clear that the general state of the US economy is deteriorating. The USA non-farm payroll (NFP) for instance. + 128K was 50% higher than analysts' forecasts, who expected growth at 85K. It would seem that the dollar should have just soared based on such data. But on the other hand, + 128K is 20-30% worse than the average value for the last couple of years. Also, the ISM index in the US manufacturing sector in October, published on Friday, was 48.3 points only (a value below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity). In our opinion, the dollar fell following the results of the week should have been much stronger. And since it did not happen last week, it will happen on this one. Therefore, we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. The Canadian dollar is a nice candidate for that. The Bank of Canada left the rate unchanged, that is, the percentage differential between the US dollars and Canada declined. The main Canadian dollar issue was news that the Chinese do not believe in the possibility of a long-term trade deal with the United States, while Trump stays in power. That is concerns about the ongoing trade war. Accordingly, commodity currencies were under pressure. But the value of the safe-haven assets grew: gold and the Japanese yen. We recommended buying them last week and will continue to do so in the current week. Note that under the current conditions, the formation of a trading portfolio, that is, when buying a Canadian dollar, it is advisable to have yen and gold in the list of positions. On Friday The Russian ruble paired with the dollar strengthened quite well and as a result, even closed below 63.50. Formally, it opens the way to further decline to 62.50 area. Despite this, we continue to recommend the USDRUB purchases. Everything goes according to the plan announced by us earlier: the first time of purchases from 63.60, the second one we start at about 62.60. So if someone has not bought a pair, you can do it now purchase at 63.60, and who is already in position should wait for an attempt to hit the 62.50.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Get ready for NFP: our expectations and recommendationsThe Japanese yen steadily strengthened yesterday because of the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan and news from China. When the Bank of Japan expectedly left the rate unchanged, the Chinese quite unexpectedly announced that they doubted the possibility of a long-term trade deal with President Donald Trump. That is, it is too early to stop worrying about the trade war. Therefore, safe-haven assets, the Japanese yen and gold yesterday were in high demand. Recall that in our review yesterday we recommended buying gold. So congratulations to those readers who follow our recommendations. It is worth noting data on the Eurozone GDP that came out on Thursday. On the one hand, it came out better than expected (+ 0.2% q / q for the forecast + 0.1% q / q), and on the other hand, the growth rate is still extremely close to zero. So there’s nothing much to rejoice about. Moreover, the unemployment rate was higher than expected, and inflation in the Eurozone continues to be rather weak. Not surprisingly, the euro travelled towards the 1.1160 resistance and hit that. The dollar was quoted quite mixed yesterday: against the yen, it fell, but against the euro and the pound - it strengthened. However, the most interesting movement will be today. Recall that data on the US labour market will be published today. Data on unemployment and average hourly wages this Friday will be much less significant. Our expectations for NFP are generally negative. If we compare the situation on the labour market now and a year ago, we can state its serious deterioration. One year ago, we were talking about the average value of the NFP 200K +, but recently it has been in the region of 150K, and the saddest thing for the US economy in all of this is that the indicator shows a clear downward trend. In general, expert forecasts confirm our expectations - the average forecast is 85K. This is more than half the average NFP over the past couple of years. However, the actual data may come out even worse. Over the past 5 months, 3 times the data on the NFP came out worse than forecasts, 1 time the analysts correctly predicted and only 1 time the actual data came out better than the forecast. So the chances are that the data will come out better than forecasts 1 to 5. We see two trading options: riskier and more profitable and less risky, but less profitable. The first option is about to start selling the dollar now in anticipation of weak data we have reasons for this. The US economy is slowing down. Which cannot but affect the state of the labour market. Accordingly, weak data will lead to sales of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. An excellent candidate for the sale is USDCAD. Also, gold purchases look very promising. As for the second option, which is less risky, we are talking about news trading. The bottom line is to work upon the release of the news. Obviously, the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That is, you do not have to guess whether the dollar goes up or down but just get into a position in the direction of movement after the data is released. To do this, we place orders like buy stop and sell stop at 2-3 minutes from the current price at that time 2-3 minutes before the news release. And we are waiting for the news to be published and one of the orders will work out. After that, you just need to be patient and wait. Risks are minimal, and earnings are limited only by your patience and the extent of the reaction of the foreign exchange market to data.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Uncle Sam wanna dip further tonight on employment update.Beware!The FOMC statement of yesterday quickly brought the pair down to the bottom from the top of the range. With expectations that we will see some job sector softening based on rising job cuts data and some weakness in yesterday's ADP Private Payrolls report (September's total for jobs added was revised down from an initial 135,000 to 93,000), it is possible to continue its intraweek trend lower if government data confirm the weakness. The momentum is in your favor, and if we see a poor update of U.S. employment and a currency reaction, it may be time for action. A warm number of U.S. jobs will probably attract buyers, not just fresh ones, but will probably result in profits from yesterday's fall so be careful with that. Cheers and have last week trade ahead ;)
Short
by jessi061
EURUSD potential long Okay, On my Higher timeframe the Daily we have an uptreand , so i was looking for a pullback(Discount) so i can try and join the uptrend, on my trading timeframe the 240 i was looking for a temporary downtrend. Price started to range between 1.11212 and 1.10742(Marked by green broken lines) this was a sign of sellers struggling to go lower low, but the buy ran away from my anticipated entry. So i waited to see if the sellers can come in again, currently price is pulling back to broken Resistance looking to turn support. If the test is weak ill buy but if the test comes in big candles ill have to go back and wait on the sidelines. feel free to share your views on this pair, and feel free to critic my analysis. With pip love.
Long
by Jajani_20
Results of Central Banks, US GDP and ADPLet’s analyze the key events of yesterday. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is rather depressed, as indeed the entire economy of the Eurozone. But at the same time, the euro did not show any specific movements. The dollar, on the contrary, despite the relatively good statistics, was losing its way. Preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter came out much better than analysts' forecasts (+ 1.9% y / y with a forecast + 1.6% y / y), consumer spending also showed growth. Employment data from ADP (especially important in anticipation of tomorrow's data on NFP) also higher than expected (+ 125K with a forecast +110 K). Although we note that fact that USD paired with the Canadian dollar strengthened due to the decision of the Bank of Canada to leave the rate unchanged. Therefore the USDCAD provided an excellent opportunity for its sales, as we recommended in yesterday. It means that you can sell it today. The main event of yesterday, of course, was the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee. The rate was cut by 0.25%. As a result, the dollar continued to suffer losses in the foreign exchange market. Our recommendation on the dollar remains unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Tomorrow we are waiting for the official statistics on the US labour market, which is likely to lead to the formation of a full downtrend. But we will talk about this tomorrow. The Bank of Japan: the rate is unchanged. The press conference of the Central Bank will take place after the publication of this review, so we’ll talk about its results tomorrow. In the meantime, we tend to buy the yen primarily against the dollar. Today we are waiting for the statistics on GDP growth in the Eurozone, data on personal income and expenditure in the United State to come out. Our recommendations for today: sale USDCAD, as well as the dollar as a whole in the foreign exchange market; buy gold and sale the Russian ruble.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Last week outcome and current market statement ISM Manufacturing Index report announced on Tuesday was the main event last week. Recall, the Index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 - 47.8 points (below 50 means decrease inactivity). As a result, the dollar has undergone the most massive one-day sales over the last month. However, the sale did not receive further development. The markets were waiting for the statistics on the NFP (unemployment fell to 3.5%, which is a record low for the past few decades. NFP figures are close enough to the forecasts and market expectations. Nevertheless, the dynamics can be traced more clearly (downward trend). So after Friday’s data to come out, the Fed has untied its hands to reduce rates in October (currently the markets estimate the probability at 76%). We also note that lower wage growth is also another enable signal to lower the interest rate. So, our position as for the dollar has not changed, but rather strengthened. We will continue to look for points for its sales across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Moreover, the US has not only economic but also political problems. The beginning of the impeachment procedure, regardless of its outcomes, is a negative signal for the US dollar. As for the upcoming week, it will be relatively calm on Wednesday, the markets will look through the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, on Thursday data on the UK economy (GDP, industrial production), as well as inflation in the USA, on Friday, attention will be focused on statistics on the Canadian labour market, as well as consumer sentiment in the USA. Of our other preferences, we note the purchase of gold, as well as the Japanese yen. According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, the 4th quarter in the last 10 years is the most unfortunate period for the Japanese yen. So do not forget about the stops and control the volume of entry. In the oil market last week, everything was following our forecasts. Goal 51.20 has been achieved. After that, the bears recorded profits on Friday. It is still difficult to say whether this fixation will turn into a full-fledged correction. So we will spend the beginning of the week neutral regarding oil - we will observe how events will develop and we will monitor the news background.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD post NFPHello traders, Today's jobs reports in the US was not bad at all, adding 136K in September, flat wages and unemployment rate at a record low. This week's up move by the pair was in anticipation of a bad jobs report following dismal readings from manufacturing and services PMIs. However, it was not as bad as expected so this was a good sign for the bears. On the technical side, I already talked about 1.0990 resistance level and that the bulls need to overcome it to assure further gains. They tested this level which is the 20 day-SMA (Has been a strong resistance in the recent past) but failed to close above it. We are still in the down channel shown on my daily chart, but on the hourly charts it broke the channel (also shown on my 4hr chart). So technically, we are now in a sideways market and trying to find a top before resuming the bear trend. Next important resistance for the bulls to beat is around 1.10220 ( 200 4h SMA, upper boundary of the channel). Next week doesn't bring important economic figures, so traders must pay attention to technicals. Good luck
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR/USD prior NFPI am expecting a bigger temporary bottom in the EUR/USD to play out, but because a new marginal lower low took place it is better to wait with this setup until a certain price level has been taken out on the upside. This pricelevel has now been taken out to the upside so I am prefering a nice Long opportunity in the EUR/USD during the NFPs with a good chance to risk ratio. However Entry should only be taken when there is confirming price action in the smaller time frames.
Long
by JonasBenjaminFriedrich
The dollar is in jeopard: getting ready for the NFPIf you look at the dynamics of the Dollar Index yield at the beginning of the month, you might note that the maximum number of sales were on January, March, April, May, June, August, September and October. In general, it’s time to form a trading strategy: we are waiting for the beginning of the month and at around 3rd of October we are selling the dollar. With a probability of 80%, you can count on. The dollar has confidence in its power. This is what we have been expecting for a long time. In yesterday’s review, we noted the anomalous value of the dollar ( too high). And its decline finally happened. But for the further development of the downward movement, at least today, one more factor is needed. We are talking about statistics on the US labour market. If the NFP figures turn out to be worse than forecasts, the dollar will receive a powerful impetus for the development of the correction and will be sold out. We consider this scenario as basic. Data within the forecasts to come out +/- is rather against the dollar, than “for”. The figure +145 +/- is much lower than the average NFP number over the past couple of years, which fluctuates around 170-180K, which confirms that the US economy is slowing down. This will give markets a signal that the Fed will be forced to cut the rate at least 1 more time in 2019. And this is more than a serious reason for the sale of the dollar. In general, the dollar can be saved with the NFP figures in the region above the average, that is, above 180K, and preferably 200K. In this case, the US dollar may well stop its fall. Since the probability is small, today we will sell the dollar. Gold purchases, as we can see, are again relevant. So today, in the light of dollar weakness and deterioration in the general state of the US economy, we will continue to look for points for gold purchases. By the way, weak data on NFPs may well trigger sales in the oil market. The key point is concerned about the growth rate of non-oil demand, which in turn is directly related to the state of the world economy. Weak data will confirm fears that global growth will continue to slow, which in turn will make us think about a slowdown in oil demand. So this will be a bearish signal for the oil market. So today we are also inclined to look for points for the sale of oil since the current goal of the downward movement of oil was achieved yesterday. At the same time, we cannot fail to note that our recommendation on the oil market was given on Monday: to sell oil at current prices at that time of about 56.30 with targets at the bottom of 51 yesterday worked out well. So those of our readers who trust and listen to our opinion should meet Friday in a very good mood. + 10% excluding leverage in less than a week - this is very good.
Short
by Trade24Fx