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EURUSD NFP & My Crazy Eye 1HR - #HOKCAPITALFor the Japanese Yen Household spending rose by 2.6%, month-on-month, following on from an 11.5% slide in October. Economists had forecast a 9.8% decline. Year-on-year, spending fell by 2%, however, which was worse than a forecasted 2.5% rise. In October, spending had fallen by 5.1%. According to the Statistic Bureau, There were heavy falls in spending on education (-17.1%), furniture & household utensils (-13.1%), clothing & footwear (-6.8%), and housing (-4.1%). Spending on fuel, light & water charges (-1.5%) and on transportation & communication (-0.1%) also declined. There were increases in spending on medical care (6.0%), culture & recreation (3.4%), and food (0.2%), however. The fall in spending, year-on-year, came in spite of disposable income rising by 2.7%, supported by a 1.9% rise in income. The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.52 to ¥109.517 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥109.56 against the greenback.
by jdroyalty
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.09.01I demonstrated the flows earlier in the move before it played out, there was a winning move in December and the main line comes after: It comes down to the pursuit of seller stops; they have been forced to flee, but the flight itself has been riddled with challenges as more and varied geopolitical risk is conjured up. As I pointed out in the first week of the new swing, the lows led to the pursuit: EUR starting to look interesting again and I started to buy 1.1100/25 as the safe-haven bid into USD starting to fade. With a pinch of luck it will be the low of the week into NFP. Not assigning much room for further downside here, for the sake of practice, let us take another look at the position in the European macro diagram: The technical flows which follow make clear the connection between the base and the breakout. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Buying here makes sense to me heading into NFP with 1.128x targets. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
Pre-NFP Analysis (Geo Polisci)NFP meets expectations: Dollar’s (DXY) had a nice rebound, clearing the short-term range-high up to it’s current descending trend; channel-top. Also, confluences in 97.5 is a huge key level and also support for the Euro at similar prices respectively. There are a lot of USD based pairs at support and I think today will result in a continued trend to the upside. The ADP figure earlier this week (govt figures) was stronger, and thus leading expectations of a 100 DXY. NFP can lift the dollar here, but by how much is unknown. I don’t think so. Alternatively : If NFP misses, Dollar is at resistance (growth and monetary policy) I think the path of least resistance with negative numbers is a DXY tanking towards lower support levels. Risk: The FED signaled it will continue to fund short term lending towards April, which is a problem, meaning that the lending market is seized up. The FED needs to by dynamic and stay ready to address negative rates (a growing question) if a new financial problem arises this year. Looking at U.S. equities, it’s worth repeating that the SPX out performs on short term basis and has done so for over 10 years. U.S. equities are also the benchmark for other developed economies. The backdrop of risk-on sentiment vs risk-off right now isn’t normal. The risk-on isn’t sought now for the yield. Make sure you know that. As investors in an economy are more willing to take risk, with less return to be had, what does this sort of market do? It chances momentum. Capital gains (buy high, sell higher) is what is sought, not the rates of return (the book value). This leads to a very anxious and unsteady sentiment across equity, FX, and commodity markets. An underlying tale that I’m watching is emerging markets not reflecting the new all-time highs seen by U.S. equities. I think the decline in fear and the high level of exposure the markets have NOT in cash, is a troubling sign that market sentiment is hanging over the edge of an ever-falling cliffs edge. I think the take away is this: it’s easier to knock a market off pace if it’s based significantly on passed conviction. The risk-on right now isn’t robust--it’s simply opportunism at its finest. If the NFP numbers today suggest some sort of a decline in growth, we can see a lower DXY. How comfortable are you from accepting the fact that this market is building with record exposure with no concern that it will fall against fundamental winds? It’s complicated without question. Risk trends and the pricing of risk through something like the VIX, you can see suppression even taking into account what’s happened in Iran over the last 7 days. The volatility of emerging markets is low as well, with high speculative exposure across the board. This is the perfection of pricing in no worries; however, I think we can all agree to a few things. Iran vs U.S. is a hot topic. Crude is going to suffer from any fundamental events, regardless of the fact that Iran doesn’t produce a lot of oil, they do have a history of manipulating supply chains. The U.S. hasn’t “reacted” to the air base being mortared—combining the economic sanctions (the reversal of Iran backing out of the nuclear treaty) and new protests, the markets assume that it’s all behind us. This is pretty crazy to me and I think it’s important to watch oil for short, medium, and long-term opportunities regarding this theme.
TVC:DXY
by TayFx
6
NFP - waiting for the devastating data and sell the dollarToday will be published a block of statistics on the US labor market. Traditionally, statistics on the US labor market arouse increased interest among traders and often lead to volatility emissions in financial markets, since these data are some kind of leading indicators of the state of the economy as a whole, and are also used by the Fed as a guideline when the Central Bank takes decisions on monetary policy parameters. After three days of a steady growth of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, traders and investors should just scratch their hands in order to fix profits on long positions. It’s just an occasion. And it seems to us that they will get a reason. But first things first. The main focus will be on two indicators: NFP figures, as well as the average hourly wage. For the first time, everything is clear with the NFP: forecast or better than forecast readings are an excuse for buying a dollar. But this is at first glance. The fact is that the data on ADP, published on Wednesday, greatly exceeded the market expectations: they will now have little 160K or even 180K. A figure less than 200K will be perceived as a failure since dollar growth on Wednesday and Thursday is largely an attempt by markets to discount under excellent Friday data based on figures from ADP. That is, the data from ADP to play against the dollar, when it is very likely to fall even against the background of better than predicted data. Well, if the data comes out worse than forecasts, then imagine the price of the dollar before Wednesday evening and you can estimate the minimum extent of its decline. As for the average hourly wage, many economic experts see wage growth as one of the main threats to the US economy and name it among the key factors that could cause a recession in the US economy. Salary growth leads to higher costs for corporations. This in turn negatively affects their profits. The deterioration in profit growth, and especially its decline, may lead to a massive exodus of investors from the US stock market, which in turn will trigger a chain reaction of the economic crisis. Note that investors start 2020 in an extremely nervous state. The likelihood of a recession is quite high, and no one denies the fact of a slowdown in the world economy. Any confirmation of these fears will provoke a sharp round of concern, that is, the reaction to the data will be double: not only the data will be processed, but also the expectations that are the consequence of these data. What are our expectations? We have long been supporters of the impending crisis, so in this regard, our position is quite predictable. But today we have one more argument from the field of statistics. In the past 2 months, NFPs have come out on average 50% better than expected. So over the previous 3 years, the NFPs have never come out better than forecasts more than twice in a row. That is, purely statistically one should expect the release of data worse than forecasts. Again, according to statistics, the data can come out much worse than forecasts. The last time, after two consecutive positive deviations from the forecast for the third time, the NFPs came out 59%. Worse than experts expected. The penultimate time, when a similar situation happened, after two positive deviations, the NFPs was 89%. Worse than expected. That is, we are not at all surprised if the data comes out, say, 50% worse than expected. And this is a figure below 100K. 100K is a psychological barrier, below which panic begins. That is why today we will sell the dollar. Ideal candidates for this are the pair with the Japanese yen and the British pound, as well as gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
About optimism, faith, and facts, as well as trading on the newsOptimism and belief in a bright future are generally quite positive things, but you should not abuse them, because this is fraught with a separation from reality. What we observed in the last couple of days in the financial markets, in our opinion, was that separation from reality. Asset prices are as if there were no killing of Suleimani, mutual threats from the United States and Iran, Iran’s missile attacks on US military bases. All at once forgot about the billionth injection of the Fed in the Fed market, the trade wars and the slowdown of the global economy. By the way, the World Bank just a few days ago lowered its forecast for world economic growth in 2020 from 2.7% to 2.5%. But this is part of reality, from which there is no escape. Failure to think about these things does not mean that they cease to exist. That’s why we will continue to sail today against this stream of optimism and will buy gold and the Japanese yen, as well as sell the dollar. In general, the dollar today can be a very defining day. The release of statistics on the US labor market is always an occasion for a sharp increase in volatility. Given the importance of the data, our position on the NFP and the reaction of the dollar will be presented in a separate review. In general, the best option for trading today, in our opinion, is trading on the news. That is, do not try to guess what data will be released and how the dollar will react to it, but act on the fact. And there is just a great candidate for the deal - we are talking about a pair of USD/CAD. The fact is that today not only statistics on the US labor market but also on the Canadian labor market will be released. That is, a couple can undergo either a double positive (as it was a month ago) or a double negative. In any of these cases, the movement will be quite strong and unidirectional. So we offer the next trading plan for today. 1-2 minutes before the release of data in the USD/CAD pair, we place orders like BUY STOP and SELL STOP at 20 points from the current price at that time. And then we just wait for the news. If the option “bad data for the USA/good for Canada” is triggered, pick up SELL STOP. If the game has the option “good US data/bad Canada data”, BUY STOP will work. In both of these cases, it is recommended to hold the position until the end of the day. If the data come out less clear and the situation is unclear - remove orders.
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX:CHF Firm Despite Haven Flows,Pound "Stimulated" by CarneyBOE's Gov Carney hinted to stimulus yesterday, indicating that the pound could come under severe pressure if incoming data show no improvement. Coincidently, the same day there were suggestions that the EU-UK talks could be dragged past the tight deadline BoJo has set. The passenger plane crash in Tehran didn’t reflect into the markets as uncertainty about the crash remains high without access to the plane's "black box". As a result, #safehaven outflows continued to weaken the #yen. However, #franc seems undeterred by the sentiment, making a strong case for more firmness. Timestamps USDCHF 4H 01:25 GBPUSD 2H 03:35 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.09A good time to update the Cable chart as we approach the first macro driven event risk of the year with NFP. As mentioned a few times the range we are trading is crystal clear with 1.33xx highs and 1.31xx lows. While the market is holding the key support at the lows, I maintain a view that a correction back towards the highs is both corrective and necessary to allow positioning for Brexit impact leg while the risk to the thesis comes from a break below the lows in the range and reassessment is only required should we break below. I therefore look to sell the strength back towards 1.33 - 1.35 which will be enough to cap the highs for 2020. Should we see any strength extend in the short-term it will be a superb selling opportunity for those interested in adding weight to the in-house macro view. For those wanting to track the large swing we have been trading since the UK elections I would recommend the following diagrams: GBPUSD GBPAUD EURGBP UK markets pricing a Conservative majority as a "positive resolution" to Brexit is complacent and allows us an opportunity to capture those out of position and mis-pricing UK market access beyond 2020. To date we have traded a tremendous amount of conjecture around the Brexit chapter, yet many are quickly to forget we are yet to trade the "fact" leg. ...Best of luck to all those looking to trade NFP, a clean and simple spike back to the top of the short-term range in play for Cable. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments !!!
Long
by ridethepig
3
USD/JPY Stays Neutral and Waiting NFPNon-farm payrolls report will be released later today. At the same time next week Fed will meet regarding their monetary policy. A weak NFP report may raise the chances of a Fed rate cut in March, but we don’t think it’s going to influence the Fed at its next meeting on December 11. Risk appetite is also wobbly, which means that a softer report could have a bigger impact on USD/JPY pair, one of the most sensitive pair to the market sentiment. If this is the case, the USD should keeps declining. The pair will meet supports at 108.00, 106.80, and 104.45. Short-term pullback should continue to show opportunities for buying, as the 50-day SMA is now starting to cross above the 200-day SMA. We're looking for Buy position around 108.00 with the nearest TP target at 109.50. As long as 108.27/00 support area holds, rise from 104.45 remains mildly in favor to resume. The appreciating USD will push the pair to highs at 109.51 (upper line of daily BBs), 110.89, and 112. And, of course, don't forget that the focus for USD/JPY traders will continue to be on the progress of U.S.-China trade talks. So, each Trump's tweet could bring volatility. What do you think?
Long
by ForexTrendline
Decision Time for Kiwi BullsThe NZD/USD has been bullish since Monday’s strong rally was fueled by talk of fiscal stimulus to boost the New Zealand economy. The Kiwi was also boosted after an unexpected rebound in Chinese manufacturing raised hopes of a brighter outlook for the world economy. And now NZD is the strongest major of the week. Technically, NZD/USD’s 4-hour chart is reporting a bearish divergence of RSI. In addition the price is testing 61.8% Fibo retracement on the fall from 0.6790 to 0.6204 at 0.6566. The direction of the pair is likely to be determined by trader reaction to that level. In case of upside break we can see a test of the August top at 0.6588. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the first target coming in at 0.6666 (78,6% Fibo level). Take in mind that later today is US NFP figure. And a weaker U.S. Dollar (softer report) could also underpinning the Kiwi as well as steady demand for higher-yielding currencies. On opposite direction, a return again inside of the bullish channel and bellow 200-day SMA will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is at 0.6541.
by ForexTrendline
GOLD vs SILVER vs GOLD/SILVER RATIOHi Guys, just some infos. Following surprising NFP datas today, silver has fallen below B whilst Gold/Silver ratio has run above. Gold instead remains above B. Does it mean that Gold will soon follow Silver? I don't know...I am asking. Lol Here a link to the explanation provided by Investopedia in respect of the Gold/Silver Ratio: www.investopedia.com And here an idea posted some time ago with some snapshots: For additional infos about Gold please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
TVC:SILVER
by cozzamara
1
Getting ready for the NFP, OPEC & trading on the newsIt is worth noting statistics from the Eurozone that was published on Thursday. On the one hand, as we predicted, Eurozone GDP came out better than expected (+ 0.2% q / q with a forecast + 0.1% q / q). On the other hand, retail sales failed (-0.6% m / m with a forecast -0.5% m / m), and industrial orders in Germany unexpectedly declined (-0.4% m / m with a forecast + 0.4% m / m). However, this did not prevent the euro from strengthening yesterday. Friday promises to be an exceptionally busy day for financial markets. First, official statistics on the US labour market will be published. Secondly, the results of an expanded OPEC meeting will be summarized. Also, we are waiting for data on the labour market of Canada. Let's start with an indicator that could potentially trigger volatility in the financial markets. We are talking about NFP. The forecasts, in our opinion, are too optimistic. Although + 180K jobs - almost the average figure of the indicator for 2019, current trends in the US economy show that + 180K is a bit overstated. The fact is that the non-farm payrolls: 180K+ is obliged to the start of the year when in January and February the indicator exceeded + 300K. But such figures have not been shown for a long time so without these two periods, the average in 2019 is less than 150K. 150K seems to us much closer to current realities, and in light of the weak employment rate from ADP published on Wednesday (+67 thousand jobs with a forecast +135 thousand), a figure below + 100K will not surprise us. So our recommendation for the dollar (in the light of our expectations from the NFP) is to sell the dollar. Note that the indicator's output between + 120K - + 180K may be completely ignored by the markets. Concerns about the demarche of Saudi Arabia at the OPEC meeting become irrelevant. On the contrary, there is increasing talk throughout the markets about a possible increase in the volume of reduction in oil production under OPEC + from the current 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd. However, even if such a decision is made in the oil market, nothing will change - OPEC countries are now extracting less than is stipulated by the agreements. Our position on oil is unchanged so far - oil growth is a great opportunity for asset sales. Today promises to be over-volatile for the USDCAD due to the simultaneous publication of labour market data from both the United States and Canada. Given the uncertainty related to the data, our recommendation for working with a pair today is to trade pending orders. Before the data is released, we place pending orders of the buy stop and sell stop type at 20-30 pips from the current price at that time. And then we just wait. That will almost certainly provoke the formation of a strong unidirectional movement, you can earn on.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
NFP Prewiew and EUR/USDUS Non-Farm Payrolls report will be the major focus today. Most of the economists are expecting US NFP to post reading in between 183-200K in November. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain between 3.5-3.6% for the month. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to pick up to 0.3% mom. Still, there are signs that the jobs report could disappoint. Firstly, the ADP jobs data released on Wednesday showed that only 67K private payrolls were added. Secondly, the four-week average claims increased to 217K from 215K. Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board declined for 4th straight months while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing data continued to decline. If job growth falls short of expectations and wage growth fails to improve like economists anticipated, USD/JPY could fall toward 108 and EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.1150/80. You can looking also for bullish trades in NZD/USD, which recently saw a major breakout to 4-month highs and may have further to run from here. In the event the jobs and the wage data beat expectations, then we would favor looking for short-term bullish trades in USD/JPY, which remains in a near-term uptrend. Technically, EUR/USD is along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart. The RSI indicator is slightly below the overbought level of 70. We’re looking for the market to get a little overbought on a short-term time frame and to start shorting again for a very small trade. Until 1.1066 minor support is intact, further rise is still in favor. Corrective decline form 1.1179 could have completed at 1.0981. Rise from there would target a test on 1.1179 first. Break above that level will resume whole rally form 1.0879. However, a clear break of 1.1066 (daily 100 SMA) will turn bias back to the downside for testing 1.0981 instead. You can share in the comments bellow what's your trading strategy for today.
by ForexTrendline