Get started

Nfp

Strifor || GOLD-NFPPreferred direction: SELL Comment: A difficult situation has developed for gold . Here, in view of technical factors, two scenarios are considered, both buy and sell. The most likely scenario №1 still assumes a fall towards the levels of 2200 and 2150 . Scenario № 2 is less likely, but it may turn out that first this particular maneuver will happen on the market, and only then will the price start to fall towards the level of 2200 . In both cases, entry points are carried out through pending orders, which are presented on the chart. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || USDCAD-02/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Yesterday's trading idea for the Canadian worked perfectly. Today, the likelihood of continued decline remains. The price is trading close to yesterday's target, namely the level of 1.37020 , at this level, the next short (breakdown downward) is being considered. We highlight two scenarios for ourselves with a common goal at the level of 1.36557. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
NAS100 Upbeat after Fed Volatility & Ahead of AppleThe tech-heavy index exhibited two-way action on Wednesday as markets reacted to the Fed outcome. The central bank acknowledged the lack of progress towards the 2% inflation target and Chair Powell added that recent hot reports have not given officials greater confidence towards this goal. Along with resilient labor market and strong economy, the bar for a pivot is high and markets have pared down their expectations, now pricing in just one cut this year, likely in the last quarter. These factors weigh on NAS100, which has moved below the EMA200 and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. It is vulnerable to the 38.2% Fibonacci of the October-March advance, but strong catalyst would be required for deeper correction. On the other hand, NAS100 is upbeat today and has already defended the aforementioned crucial level. It has the opportunity to return above the EMA200, reestablish the bullish momentum and pursue new record highs (18,495). Creeping fears of potential backtrack to rate hikes were assuaged, as Chair dismissed them, along with concerns of stagflation, following some weak economic data. Markets now turn to Friday’s employment data and another strong print would reinforce the higher-for-longer prospects. Investors also await Apple’s earning on the Thursday, which come at challenging period and the stock is close to bear territory. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:NAS100
by FXCM
Strifor || GOLD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: After a quiet week in the metals market, the coming week is likely to be very volatile. In addition to the technical accumulation in the triangle format, we have a lot of economic data and events that will happen this week. The most likely scenario №1 will involve a breakout trade at the level of 2340 . Scenario №2 assumes a preliminary fall to 2300 , but you need to be careful here, since a close below 2300 will most likely generate a downward movement to 2200 and 2150 . In the case of a positive outcome, a closure can be expected above the level of 2340 , and then enter a long position with a target of 2400 , then 2440 and higher. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Gold: Lower high confirming? Today's focus: Gold Pattern – Lower High swing point Support – 2290.50 to 2315 Resistance – 2338.40 Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Gold on its daily chart. Do we have a new swing lower in play after sellers formed a lower high? This could be the case, but we still need some confirmation. In today's video, we have run over our thoughts on the price and possibilities we are looking at. Currently, the USD does not influence Gold too much, but we have the FOMC and NFP this week. Keep an on these releases. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by Eightcap
$NFP Breakout Double Bottom Trading the double bottom pattern involves identifying a bullish reversal pattern on a price chart and making trading decisions based on the pattern's confirmation. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to trade the double bottom pattern: 1. **Identify the Double Bottom Pattern**: A double bottom pattern appears on a price chart after a downtrend and consists of two consecutive troughs (lows) with a peak (high) between them. The lows are approximately equal and signify a possible reversal in the downward trend. 2. **Confirm the Pattern**: Before initiating a trade based on the double bottom pattern, it's essential to confirm its validity. Look for several signs to confirm the pattern: - Volume: Ideally, the volume should decline as the pattern forms and increase when the price breaks above the confirmation level. - Symmetry: The two troughs should be roughly equal in depth and width, forming a "W" shape. - Price Breakout: Wait for the price to break above the peak (high) between the two troughs, confirming the pattern. 3. **Entry Point**: Enter a long position (buy) once the price breaks above the peak (high) that separates the two bottoms. Some traders prefer to wait for a slight pullback after the breakout for a better entry point. 4. **Stop Loss Placement**: Place a stop-loss order below the lowest point of the double bottom pattern or slightly below the breakout level. This helps to limit potential losses if the pattern fails to hold, and the price resumes its downtrend. 5. **Take Profit Target**: Calculate the distance between the lowest point of the pattern (the bottom of the "W") and the peak (high) that separates the two bottoms. Then, project this distance upwards from the breakout point. This distance can serve as a potential target for taking profits.
Long
by Crypto-Adda_Official
1
Gold | News Review and Its Impact on Gold MarketUS Labor Market Data Preview - Friday, April 5, 2024 To analyze the market's reaction to today's NFP data, it's crucial to review past market events. The Federal Reserve needs two conditions to ease interest rates: 1) Continued downtrend in inflation 2) Weakening labor market. Therefore, today's NFP data is the most critical news release. Previous NFP Data: Non-farm payroll: 275K new jobs Average hourly earnings: 0.1% (4.3% y/y) Unemployment rate: 3.9% Based on these figures, 60% of economists and investors believe the Fed will start cutting rates from June. NFP Forecasts: Various forecasting models, considering ISM Services Index, Manufacturing, ADP, and 4-week moving average of jobless claims, predict NFP to be between 200K and 250K jobs. Crucial Data Point: Contrary to popular belief, today's key data is not the total NFP figure but rather the change in the number of employed persons (Employed) last month and the number of people who wanted to be in the labor force but could not find a job (Unemployed). Last month, the number of employed persons decreased by 184K from January, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 334K, leading to a 0.2% rise in the unemployment rate. Technical Analysis for Gold: Personal Opinion: I am bullish on gold, and today's news is likely to support gold prices. Expected Price Movement: I anticipate a move to the 2285 support level followed by a strong upward move towards 2305 and 2330. Key Resistance: 2305 - 2310 and 2325 - 2330 Key Support: 2282 - 2285 and 2272 - 2277 Please note: This trend could change based on today's news. Additional Considerations: Inflation: If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could pressure the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting gold's upside potential. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions could boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Real Interest Rates: Rising real interest rates could make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. Overall, today's NFP data and other economic indicators will play a significant role in shaping gold's short-term direction. Traders should carefully monitor market news and data releases to make informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by uPaSKaL
29
Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pauseThe euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 4% for a fifth straight time on Thursday, as expected. Interest rates remain at record levels but Lagarde & Co. provided fresh hints that policy makers are looking to lower rates at the June meeting. The economic background appears favorable for a rate cut. Eurozone inflation has dropped to 2.4%, close to the 2% target and the economy is barely growing. ECB members, including those with more hawkish views, have been hinting at a June rate cut. The ECB statement echoed this view, saying if its confidence increases that inflation is moving towards the target “in a sustained manner”, then a rate cut would be appropriate. At her press conference, ECB President Lagarde noted that several members had voted in favor of a rate cut on Thursday. Lagarde added that the ECB could make a cut even if inflation remained above 2%, if the ECB was confident that inflation was moving in the right direction. It’s a very different story in the US, where the Federal Reserve is dealing with a surprisingly strong US economy. March nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations and US inflation climbed to 3.5%, up from 3.2% and above the forecast of 3.4%. Fed members are sounding hawkish and the markets have slashed rate cut expectations. After the hot US inflation report, Boston Fed President Collins said that the Fed may need to cut rates less than previously expected and New York Fed President Williams said there was “no clear need to adjust policy in the very near term”. The markets have lowered the odds of a June cut to just 24%, compared to 54% a week ago. A September cut was priced in at 91% a week ago but that has dropped to 72%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0651. Below, there is support at 1.0597 1.0749 and 1.0813 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Brent Crude Oil Demand Spike(WTICOUSD, too)Looking forward to entering Long on BCOUSD after NFP today. Am not too eager to enter, if it happens, its good. If it doesn't happen, I am fine too, since today is Friday, and I have to hold my positions over the weekends. I am used to holding trades over the weekends, however I prefer the weekdays. Therefore, when Mondays roll around, I thank God its Monday! Anyway, our discounted price zone is the 10EMA based on previous Black Friday Sale discounts offered. Price made a kink in the 10EMA discount by offering 20EMA discount yesterday or so, however, I do not believe it would continue giving 20EMA discounts which is bigger discounts, because, the Flag Pole is very big and long, while the flag is minute. As usual, I am very aggressive at cutting losses, and moving my stop loss towards Breakeven and into profits. Once the trade is in, I will immediately shift my stoploss upwards by one tenth of the SL size, because my intention is never to price hit my full R loss. I am wrong many a times, by being too aggressive at cutting losses, moving my stop loss forward, etc and price continues to go in my favour after I am out of the trade, however, the results does show that I am profitable, and so, I will continue with my new ways. I began doing such aggressive SL shifting earlier this year at around February, and it has been profits for me ever since, week on week. 2002SGT 05042024
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
XAUUSD 300 PIPS NFP MOVE TODAYOANDA:XAUUSD Gold price’s (XAU/USD) rally pauses after refreshing all-time highs near $2,305 amid uncertainty ahead of the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March. The labor market data is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which financial markets are currently anticipating for June. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders are pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will trim interest rates in June, an inch higher from 60% a week ago. Traders bets for Fed rate cuts remain broadly unchanged as surprisingly weak US Services PMI for March offset the negative impact of hawkish commentary from a slew of Fed policymakers. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields are up at 4.34%.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Senorita71
THE KOG REPORT - NFP (Are we going higher?)The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve done well on Gold so this NFP we’re really not looking for get involved in the play unless we see price approach extreme levels! We’ve managed a long, we’ve managed a short but with this move, it’s likely we’re going to see some stop loss hunt activations and swings in both directions, so please play defence. We have the immediate resistance levels above 2305-8 which if targeted and held would be the first reaction point we can see on the chart, that’s if the support level 2270-65 manages to hold up the price on the release. Ideally, we want to see that level above break higher and tap into that extreme level above 2230-37 which is where, if we see a decent set up and clean reversal, we feel the opportunity to short the market will come from. On the flip, looking below, again the support level 2270-65 could be the swoop, and if broken, we will be looking to hold any runners from above down into the 2230-35 region and below that 2220-25 as per the KOG Report on Sunday where, if price is held, supported and we see a clean set up, we feel an opportunity to long the market again is on the cards. It’s a simple one this time, not going to risk getting into the market for cheap pips with the way they have been behaving lately. Look for the extreme levels or stay away and come back on Monday. Remember, the trade comes after the event! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
NFP Ahead! Planning for potential setupsApril 5th DXY: Could see higher NFP, but DXY might weaken, break 104 support, trade down to 103.70 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6035 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6605 SL 20 TP 45 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 151.80 SL 25 TP 90 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2605 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Buy 1.0885 SL 25 TP 55 (DXY weakness) USDCHF: Sell 0.8990 SL 30 TP 90 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3535 SL 20 TP 45 (CAD weakness, DXY strength) Gold: Look for reaction at 2305
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Strifor || GOLD-NFPPreferred direction: SELL Comment: For gold , we previously gave two setups for sell, and one of them is already in work (scenario №2) . However, against the background of the upcoming potential volatility (NFP) , as well as the short-term weakening of the US dollar , most likely, it is at the very moment of the release of data on the US labor market that we will see a new maximum for gold in the region of 2350 . It is in this area that we are considering an additional level for entry into short (scenario №1) . This scenario is the most likely in the near future. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
5
Strifor || GBPUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British pound also remains on the buy list. Here, the expected movement for the current NFP is the same as for the euro . Growth is expected towards the level of 1.27000 , where local resistance will occur. The target is not set above this area (quite an aggressive option). But one can consider potential sales when generating a signal. We do not exclude the possibility that a potential downward reversal will already occur at the beginning of next week. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || EURUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The setup for today's NFP remains in favor of the buyer. Most likely, the euro will update yesterday's high around the level of 1.09000 . At this level, there is an area of resistance, and most likely it is from here that we can expect a deeper correction than the one we are currently observing. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: At the beginning of the coming week, the buy-priority for the euro remains. The previous week showed nothing in terms of volatility. The coming week is expected to be hot, and reasons for volatility can be found in the economic calendar. As before, the main target for medium-term growth is the level of 1.09000 . Scenario №1 assumes maximum growth from current prices, but we do not exclude scenario №2 with a short-term fall towards the level of 1.07500 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || AUDUSD-Mid-term viewPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The aggressive behavior of buyers of the American currency forced the prices of the main competitors of the USD to decline at the beginning of the week. This affected the euro and pound to a greater extent, but the currencies of the Pacific region also sank. Nevertheless, we continue to adhere to the buy priority in the medium term, especially since we previously did not exclude another potential drawdown. AUDUSD long is considered according to two main scenarios. Less likely, scenario №2 assumes growth from current prices, while scenario №1 assumes growth after a slight downward drawdown. It should be noted that purchases according to scenario №2 are already active, and continuing to accumulate a long position is a good step for today. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD? NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD? US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated on multiple occasions that a tight labor market acts as a deterrent to lowering interest rates. Which is why this month's NFP data release should be interesting. This Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show an addition of 200,000 new jobs. Since Feb 2023, data has consistently hovered between 300K and 150K. Many of these initial readings were subsequently revised downwards. Nevertheless, at the time, they significantly reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and, most recently, bolstered the dollar. Traders anticipated ~6 rate cuts at the beginning of the year, but now will be content if the Fed reduces rates three times. However, even three rate cuts are dubious, given that most recent US data has exceeded expectations. This Monday, the ISM manufacturing index turned positive for the first time since October 2022. If the NFP data surpasses expectations, GBP/USD could become an attractive trade. In the event of a soft NFP reading, attention could shift to the S&P, which would have a window to rebound before major banks commence reporting their latest earnings. GBP/USD has remained trapped within a rectangular pattern for almost 100 days now, potentially indicating some strong boundaries to take note of for a range trade. The pair currently sits in the lower half of the range. The jobs data on Friday could heavily influence Wall Street's sentiment, potentially determining whether the market remains overall bullish or requires even more of a corrective move. The 5200 level could be pivotal. It has previously acted as resistance and now functions as support. Even if a breakdown occurs below this level, support could be anticipated at the 5100 level or the 50-day SMA.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets