🔥 XAU/USD - new ATH recorded , What's NEXT ? (READ THE CAPTION)Important Caption : By examining the gold chart, we can see that the price faced selling pressure after entering the supply range of $2212 to $2222 and was able to fall to $2202. After the price reached this level, it faced demand pressure and was able to It grew up to $2236 and recorded a new ATH and finally closed at $2233 on the last trading day of last week! Today, due to the fact that the majority of the market was closed, but the price increased again to $2265! Now the price is trading in the range of $2248 and we have to see when we can finally see more correction of gold! Gold is breaking records these days! In addition, this week we will have the NFP statistics, which can have an important impact on the gold trend!
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Nfp
GBP/USD edges lower, UK employment nextThe British pound has started the trading week in negative territory. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2807, down 0.39%. The pound has posted six straight winning days and climbed 1.56% last week against the US dollar.
The UK releases the employment report on Tuesday. The labor market has remained resilient even with the steep rise in interest rates, and the new measure for employment data has indicated that the labour market is stronger than previously thought. For instance, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 stood at 3.8%, compared to 4.2% under the old measure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.8% in the first quarter.
We could see a large drop in job growth, with an estimate of 10,000 for Q4, compared to 72,000 in Q3. Wage growth has been dropping steadily and is expected to tick lower to 5.7% y/y including bonuses, down from 5.8% in the third quarter.
The Bank of England will be keeping a close eye on the employment release. The BoE meets on March 21 and Governor Bailey has eased up on his pushback against rate cut expectations. If Tuesday’s employment numbers are stronger than expected, it will likely raise the odds of a rate cut later this year.
In the US, Friday’s employment release was a mix. Job growth remained strong as nonfarm payrolls rose 275,000, easily beating the market estimate of 200,000 and the downwardly revised 229,000 in January.
However, the unemployment rate surprised by climbing to 3.9% after holding at 3.7% for three consecutive months, which was also the market estimate. This was the highest unemployment rate in two years and points to softer labor market conditions. The rise in the unemployment rate has raised the odds of a rate cut in June by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the likelihood of a cut is 71%, compared to 64% just one week ago, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
There is resistance at 1.2902 and 1.2945
GBP/USD pushed below support at 1.2852 and is testing support at 1.2809
XAUUSD NFP ANALYSISThat being said, the dovish commentary from central bank policymakers creates a tailwind for the yellow metal. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank is "not far" from gaining enough confidence that inflation will reach its 2% target to begin lowering interest rates. Investors will take more cues from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday for fresh impetus, which is expected to see 200,000 jobs added to the US economy. However, the stronger-than-expected data might lift the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the gold price.
Special Guest Intro / March NFP Top-Down Analysis 🎨Hello Traders! Today we were fortunate enough to have the ShrewdCatFx Illustrator make an appearance on the Air. Yes, it is that time of the month for NFP data!
0:0 Special Guest & Monthly Timeframe/NFP Expectations
2:32 Weekly Timeframe
3:43 Daily Timeframe
6:20 4Hr timeframe
8:27 1Hr Timeframe
Numbers are expected to decrease over the prior period but growth is expected overall as 198K jobs are forecasted to have been created in February. The figure from ADP on Wednesday missed expectations slightly as 149K was expected and 140K was the actual figure. If the data tomorrow is better/more than 198K, then I'm anticipating a partial retracement of the increase we've observed so far this week. (Up 120 Pips this week)
If the Data is close to what is forecasted (198K) or falls short of that number, then I anticpate a strong continuation move to the upside towards 1.09729 Daily Level and 1.09828 4Hr Zone. We may even moon towards the Monthly level 1.105. Otherwise, favorable numbers will cause a retracement (as previously mentioned) back towards 1.09039 4Hr Zone and 1.08834 Daily Level.
THE KOG REPORT - NFP 08/03/24
The KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
For today’s NFP we’re going to keep the chart and idea clean and only look for extreme levels. Our daily bias and weekly bias targets are complete, yesterday we posted a higher level for our team and that was also completed this morning.
So now, we have the following levels in mind:
Resistance levels:
2173-5 and above that 2180-85. These levels we feel if price attacks could give us a reaction in price if rejected and not broken. For that reason, a test on the level is potentially available but we wouldn’t really want to long up into these levels unless we get a very deep pullback!
Support levels:
2150-47 unless broken can take us up into those levels before a reaction, however, with the volume that enters the markets, it can make this a difficult trade. Hence, the levels below 2140-44 can then bring us back into the order region to then start a small range. Below that have 2130, which if attacked is our ideal level for a tap and bounce, but only for the scalp.
Price breaks above the higher resistance, we're not interested and will come back next week.
We’re very likely not going to be trading this event, rather watching and letting the price settle before we decide on our move. It can be volatile and extreme and we need you to understand, if they break above that 2085 level they’re going to complete the structure without any pullbacks. New traders and those less experienced, please stay out of the markets, money in your account is a position in the markets!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Pre-NFP AnalysisMarch 8th Non Farm Employment Change Scenarios
DXY: Look for reaction at 103 resistance level.
Strong NFP (>250k) : DXY break through and climb to 103.70
Weak NFP (<140k): DXY reject and drop to 201.10
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6155 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6655 SL 25 TP 70 (DXY weakness)
USDJPY: Sell 147.50 SL 40 TP 145 (DXY weakness)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2765 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0905 SL 30 TP 75 or Buy 1.10 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY weakness)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8765 SL 20 TP 40 (DXY weakness)
USDCAD: Buy 1.3455 SL 25 TP 85 (DXY strength)
Gold: Could retrace down to 2126, bounce higher to 2175
Strifor || USDJPY-NFP SetupPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: Despite the local strengthening of the Japanese yen , this currency pair is still considered more favorable to the buyer, especially in the long term. All events within the specified prospects will develop around level 150 and above. As for shorter-term prospects, it is also unlikely that the instrument will go down towards level 144 , where the next significant support is located.
On the eve of the NFP , we are considering a strengthening of the US dollar , and a return of the price to the level of 150 . It should be noted that the deal is not for one day, so today on the NFP , buyers will most likely only lay down this growth, and we will see its continuation next week.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || AUDUSD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL
Comment: The Australian dollar is also expected to undergo a downward correction, as we suppose. Against the background of today's NFP , the instrument may even grow towards the level of 0.66659 , but in the medium term, it is unlikely that the buyer will be able to gain a foothold. Perhaps not today, then at the beginning of next week, against the backdrop of depleted purchasing power, the price will tend to the level of 0.65500.
There are assumptions about a fall to support 0.65010 , where a very large accumulation of long positions is located, and a re-test of this area very much suggests itself. However, this is another story, for now, we limit ourselves to the target at the level of 0.65500 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || GBPUSD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL
Comment: As part of the upcoming strengthening of the American currency , as well as the upcoming NFP , we expect a fall in the GBPUSD currency pair. At the moment, the process of eliminating sellers is being completed, and in the very near future, the market will begin to actively buy at market prices. Thus, this will provide an opportunity for the limit buyer to fix long positions and drop the price. In addition, the area near the level of 1.28000 is a serious obstacle for the buyer, and within the framework of a long-term retest of the indicated resistance, it is most likely that the instrument will go for a correction.
Scenario №2 assumes more medium-term parameters of the trade, if the preliminary upward movement turns out to be significantly greater than what we expect.
We place the downside target at the level of 1.27100 , slightly above the liquid area at the level of 1.27000.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || EURUSD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL
Comment: Our previous setups for currency pairs worked out perfectly, especially EURUSD . On the eve of the NFP , as well as for gold, we expect a fall in the euro. At the time of publication, the instrument may strengthen towards the level of 1.10000 ( scenario №2 ), so one should count on this in any case. At the moment, scenario №1 is being considered more, but it must be said that both scenarios will be at work. That is, we are working in the format of "step-by-step" accumulating positions.
We place the target for this trade at the level of 1.08500 , there is a potential for a fall to 1.08000 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || GOLD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL
Comment: By the end of the week, all long trades on metals have been fixed, and on the eve of the NFP , we expect a fall in gold . It should be noted that a slight increase is still possible even without the NFP data, where, against the background of volatility, the price may rise above the current new historical maximum. However, this growth is nothing. Therefore, we're coming to NFP with two scenarios that differ in the range of potential false upward movement. Most likely, we won’t see the price above $2200 .
Both scenarios are on the chart, where the overall target for the fall is located at the level of $2120.
It should also be said that there is no point in delaying sales, since the medium-term buyer is strong.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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GOLD MAY RETEST $2080 NEXT WITH NFP AND UNEMPLOYEMENTGold has experienced remarkable growth lately following a breakout in the supply zone. The impulses have completed the 5th wave, signaling a potential downward shift, especially with the anticipation of positive NFP data. We foresee a retracement towards the highlighted supply zone, notably around the $2080 mark, a significant price level. Testing both the upper boundary of the channel and the 1.68% Fibonacci retracement, we have reasonable expectations for a forthcoming bearish movement.
AU projected target of 0.6600With China economic news, US election news, and NFP this upcoming Friday, we have a lot of fundamental events moving the markets. We just recently broke a LH on AU. I'm looking for a projected target of 0.6600
We will plan accordingly with whatever the market shows us and stick to our trading plans
#NFP/USDT#NFP
The price is moving in a descending channel on a 4-hour frame
We are about to hack that channel
We also have a higher stability moving average of 100
We have a major support that the price has rebounded from more than once: 0.5000
Entry price is 0.5877
The first target is 0.6262
The second target is 0.7000
The third goal is 0.7805
USDJPY: Thoughts and Analysis (Pattern discussion)Today's focus: USDJPY
Pattern – Consolidation (Bullish?)
Support – 149.84
Resistance – 150.81, 151.745
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDJPY on the daily chart.
Simple story today: will the current price consolidation break higher (with trend) or break lower, setting off distribution? We find it's important to break down patterns in the process and not just after they confirm or start to confirm so you can map out an action plan depending on what happens next with price.
Due to the situation with the BOJ, moves higher could set off intervention worries, and we also have Fed testimony and NFP this week for the USD.
Good trading.
NFP/USDT - New Frontier Presents: BBand Breakout◳◱ On the $NFP/ CRYPTOCAP:USDT chart, the Bband Breakout pattern suggests an upcoming trend shift. Traders might observe resistance around 0.58147 | 0.66395 | 0.78956 and support near 0.45586 | 0.41273 | 0.28712. Entering trades at 0.59082 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: New Frontier Presents
▣ Rank: None
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Bybit, Huobipro, Gateio, Mexc
▣ Category/Sector: N/A
▣ Overview: New Frontier Presents project overview is currently unavailable. I'll try to update this in the upcoming analysis.
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 0.59082 ₮
▣ 24HVol: 10,421,685.717 ₮
▣ 24H Chng: 6.381%
▣ 7-Days Chng: N/A
▣ 1-Month Chng: N/A
▣ 3-Months Chng: N/A
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 0.58147 | 0.66395 | 0.78956
◢ Support: 0.45586 | 0.41273 | 0.28712
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: -9.79
▣ Last 90D: -2.54
▣ Last 1-Y: 2.23
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.11
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 0.88
▣ Last 90D: 0.72
▣ Last 1-Y: 0.65
▣ Last 3-Y: 24.98
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is N/A
▣ Reddit sentiment score is N/A
▣ In-depth NFPUSDT technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
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Are you bullish on NFPrompt (NFP)NFP/USDT Daily Chart. Are you Bullish? It's time to make a decision.
................................................................................................................
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and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations.
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⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-NFP❗️Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: We also consider possible sales by pound. Here previous long-positions are completely closed. Before the NFP , we have two main scenarios, similar in nature to the movement as in the EURUSD situation before the NFP . The main idea in both cases is to update the maximum at the level of 1.28000 , and then fall towards the level of 1.26000. One can also consider the level of 1.25000 as a second target.
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⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-NFP❗️Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The long scenario worked out quite quickly, and now before the NFP , most likely you need to count on selling. The market quite sharply rushed into sales due to which it was possible to recover to local highs. For NFP , I will highlight two scenarios, the difference between the first and the second is that in the second it is assumed that the movement will first move down, and then grow with the aim of updating the maximum just above the level of 1.09000 . The target for selling can be located near the level of 1.08000 .
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🔥 XAU/USD - Ready for LONG ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the TVC:GOLD chart, we can see that on Friday, with the announcement of the NFP statistics, gold started a heavy fall and was able to correct even up to $2028! After that, it was again accompanied by demand and started to grow, which was as expected because we had observed the important range of $2032 for possible demand! Gold finally managed to grow to 2039.750 and close at this price! Now, for the coming week, I expect that gold will continue to grow by maintaining the support of $2032! If this growth continues, its possible targets will be $2042, $2044, $2047, and $2052, respectively! (After this growth, I expect gold to fall again)
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban