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EURUSD - 📈 => 📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), EURUSD rejected our blue circle zone and traded higher. What's next? 📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish long-term , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red. Currently, EURUSD is approaching the upper bound of the wedge pattern. Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
AUD/USD hits one-month high, RBA decision nextThe Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, a 12-year high. The central bank has maintained rates three straight times and there is a strong likelihood that the rate statement will be hawkish, as inflation in the first quarter dropped from 4.1% to 3.6% but was above the market estimate of 3.4%. Inflation has come down significantly but remains sticky as the RBA tries to bring it back down to the 2%-3% target range. The RBA is making its rate decisions based on the data and that has the markets guessing as to what the rate path will look like. A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range before 2025. If inflation resumes its downward path in the next few months we could see a rate cut in November but at the same time, the risk of a rate hike has increased since the Q1 inflation report. As well, the job market has been tighter than anticipated, which makes it more difficult to lower rates. The RBA was very late in starting its rate-tightening cycle and policy makers will be very hesitant to lower rates until they are confident that inflation won’t rebound. US nonfarm payrolls eased to 175,000 in April, well below the market estimate of 240,000. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, above the forecast of 3.8%. Wage growth rose 0.2% m/m, lower than the 0.3% gain in March and shy of the market estimate of 0.2%. We haven’t seen all three components of the employment report miss their estimates for quite some time, which could point to cracks in the US labor market. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6606 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6564 0.6651 and 0.6693 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GOLD BUY WEAK NFP It's essential to understand that gold prices are influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic data and central bank policies. Recently, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key indicator of economic health in the United States, came in weaker than expected. This unexpected weakness in job creation has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may be inclined to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth. The correlation between weak economic data, such as a lackluster NFP report, and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can significantly impact gold prices. Here's how: Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the employment landscape of the United States. A weaker-than-expected report suggests sluggish job growth, which can dampen confidence in the economy and raise concerns about future economic performance. Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. In times of economic instability or anticipation of looser monetary policy, investors may flock to gold as a safe haven asset. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Now, let's integrate this understanding into our analysis of gold's current trajectory: Given the recent weak NFP report, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may opt for interest rate cuts to support the economy. This has injected a sense of uncertainty into the market and bolstered demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Consequently, we've seen an upward pressure on gold prices as investors seek refuge from economic volatility. In light of these developments, it's crucial to consider the potential implications for gold's future movements. Any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions will be closely monitored by market participants, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. CONCLUSION: Thats why we have put the buy order right on 2300 levels and a potential take profit on 2330, this is because there is a big resistance level there. Furtermore you can use the TradingView tools horizontal line that mark the support and resistance level which is very convenient. As we navigate these dynamics, it's important to exercise caution and remain vigilant in assessing the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. Market participants should stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of NFP. Rise to 2328 or fall to 2250?FX:XAUUSD decreases volatility, smoothly moving into a consolidation phase before the publication of NFP. The market structure is bearish and the overall fundamentals are negative. What should we wait for? Today is quite a busy news day, but all attention is focused on NFP. The gold market is locally bearish and set for further decline. Breakout of 2295 and price consolidation below this area will form a bearish potential. But on the news background anything can happen, like a shakeout to 2328 before a further fall to 2250, or an attempt to break the trend resistance.... Resistance levels: 2305, 2328, 2346 Support levels: 2295, 2280, 2267 Technically and fundamentally the market is weak and ready to conquer the lower liquidity zones, but there is news ahead. It is impossible to determine the movement in advance, but based on the general data, there is a probability to see the continuation of the decline. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
3
⭐️ XAU/USD : NFP's effects on $GOLD (IMPORTANT ANALYSIS)Upon reviewing gold in the weekly timeframe, we observe that the price is trading around $2298. If the NFP data is announced to be higher than the forecasted rate, it will strengthen the dollar index and consequently cause a significant drop in gold prices! Should this occur and gold stabilizes below $2300, we can expect a fall in gold prices to lower levels such as (in order) $2268, $2243, $2229, and $2222. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
Strifor || GBPUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The fact of recovery is also visible on the pound chart. Here we also have both scenarios activated that we published at the beginning of the week. Before the NFP , the bullish mood remains, and an approach to the level of 1.26000 is expected. You can also consider level 1.26500 as an additional target. In the short term, the pound is most likely to strengthen, but in the medium term, we will have to look at the facts. Growth towards the level of 1.28000 depends on many factors, the formation of which must take time. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Before the NFP , we adhere to the buy priority and scenarios that we've outlined at the beginning of the week. The likelihood of the US dollar's main competitors strengthening is high. However, we are talking more about short-term strengthening today. Over the longer term, the US dollar is likely to resume its global growth. For the euro , both scenarios have been activated, and today we do not consider growth above 1.08000 . Those who are not yet in the trade can consider entering through pending orders before the publication of labor market data. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || AUDUSD-30/04/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Before the Fed meeting on major currency pairs, a rather uncertain situation has developed, and the best option will most likely be to refrain from trades and make a decision on entry after the interest rate decision. However, the most likely scenario is in favor of buyers. At the moment, the best option would be to look for an entry point near the support level of 0.64906 . We consider two scenarios near this level, where scenario №1 is about a rebound trade, and scenario №2 - a false breakout. The growth target in both cases is the level of 0.66000 . If, after the Fed , the price falls below the support level of 0.64906 and cannot recover, then you should not count on growth in the medium term. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
3
Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British currency continues to struggle at the level of 1.25000 , and despite everything, so far everything is working out more in favor of the buyer. The week is filled with events and here, just like in the euro, you need to be ready to change your original plan. The most likely scenario is a breakout of the level of 1.25346 and further growth to the level of 1.26000 (scenario №1). Today, the goals are modest against the backdrop of the upcoming Fed meeting, after this event, in the event of a positive outcome for the main competitors of the US dollar , it will be possible to count on growth to 1.28000 . Scenario №2 will become more active if the US dollar strengthens against the backdrop of upcoming events, but medium-term purchases in this case will be relevant. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: At the beginning of the new week, the euro remains on the buy list, especially if we are talking about the prospect of 1-3 days (before the Fed meeting on Wednesday). This event, as well as the NFP , forces one to be as flexible as possible and be prepared for changes in trading plans at the beginning of this week. Nevertheless, growth is still more likely, but unfortunately, the targets are not as promising as last week. This week, as part of the growth, targets above 1.08000 are not yet being considered. If the dollar's weakness is demonstrated, one can count on growth towards 1.09000 , where there is a large liquidity zone. Two scenarios are considered, where the more likely scenario №1 says about growth near the level of 1.07225 (breakout trade). A less likely scenario №2 is about the strengthening of the US dollar on Wednesday, within which we can expect a fall to the level of 1.06500 . But since technically there is still a possibility of growth to 1.08000 , then in the event of this fall, we can consider going long again according to scenario №2 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
USD/CAD analysis before NFP(5/3/2024)After a short correction USD/CAD FX:USDCAD has made a sharp break out and pulled back on the discount zone. it's likely the price telling us that USD/CAD is going to reach higher prices. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.
Long
by fortunamarkets
Pound edges higher as UK Services PMI beats estimateThe British is in positive territory on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2555, up 0.16% at the time of writing. The service sector accelerated in April, as the Services PMI rose to 55.0, up from 53.1 in April. This was the strongest level since May 2023 and services has shown growth for six straight months, with readings above the 50 level. The PMI survey noted that business and consumer spending were higher in April and reflective of an improving UK economy. The positive report has given the British pound a slight boost on Friday. The US labour market has remained surprisingly strong and has weathered the Federal Reserve’s steep rate hikes. The March nonfarm payrolls report sizzled at 303,000, well above expectations. The April data is unlikely to be as strong, but the market forecast of 243,000 would indicate that the labour market remains tight. The markets will be keeping a close eye on wage growth, which contributes to inflation. Wages rose 0.3% m/m in April and are expected to remain unchanged in the April release. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%. The Federal Reserve reiterated at this week’s meeting that inflation remained too high to lower rates. Still, the markets were relieved that Fed Chair Powell appeared to rule out the next rate move being a rate hike and that sent the US dollar lower against the major currencies. Just one month ago, the markets had fully priced in a rate cut in September but the probability has fallen to 61%, with a 73% probability of a cut in November. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2563 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.2590 1.2517 and 1.2490 and providing support
by OANDA
THE KOG REPORT - NFPThe KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Quick on for this event, not really looking to trade it after the week we've had and it's probably wise others who have followed us this week don't either. Keep your money in your account! We're sharing the levels instead that we feel they will want to target, and if they reject where traders may get the opportunity to long or short the market. Upside levels - 2330-35 above that in extension of the move 2340-44, price needs to stay below otherwise we go higher. Downside levels - 2250-55, price attempts this level an opportunity to long may be available. Breaking the level will give us the extension of the move 2230-35 before any RIPs. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Strifor || GOLD-NFPPreferred direction: SELL Comment: A difficult situation has developed for gold . Here, in view of technical factors, two scenarios are considered, both buy and sell. The most likely scenario №1 still assumes a fall towards the levels of 2200 and 2150 . Scenario № 2 is less likely, but it may turn out that first this particular maneuver will happen on the market, and only then will the price start to fall towards the level of 2200 . In both cases, entry points are carried out through pending orders, which are presented on the chart. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
1
Strifor || USDCAD-02/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Yesterday's trading idea for the Canadian worked perfectly. Today, the likelihood of continued decline remains. The price is trading close to yesterday's target, namely the level of 1.37020 , at this level, the next short (breakdown downward) is being considered. We highlight two scenarios for ourselves with a common goal at the level of 1.36557. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
NAS100 Upbeat after Fed Volatility & Ahead of AppleThe tech-heavy index exhibited two-way action on Wednesday as markets reacted to the Fed outcome. The central bank acknowledged the lack of progress towards the 2% inflation target and Chair Powell added that recent hot reports have not given officials greater confidence towards this goal. Along with resilient labor market and strong economy, the bar for a pivot is high and markets have pared down their expectations, now pricing in just one cut this year, likely in the last quarter. These factors weigh on NAS100, which has moved below the EMA200 and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. It is vulnerable to the 38.2% Fibonacci of the October-March advance, but strong catalyst would be required for deeper correction. On the other hand, NAS100 is upbeat today and has already defended the aforementioned crucial level. It has the opportunity to return above the EMA200, reestablish the bullish momentum and pursue new record highs (18,495). Creeping fears of potential backtrack to rate hikes were assuaged, as Chair dismissed them, along with concerns of stagflation, following some weak economic data. Markets now turn to Friday’s employment data and another strong print would reinforce the higher-for-longer prospects. Investors also await Apple’s earning on the Thursday, which come at challenging period and the stock is close to bear territory. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:NAS100
by FXCM
Strifor || GOLD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: After a quiet week in the metals market, the coming week is likely to be very volatile. In addition to the technical accumulation in the triangle format, we have a lot of economic data and events that will happen this week. The most likely scenario №1 will involve a breakout trade at the level of 2340 . Scenario №2 assumes a preliminary fall to 2300 , but you need to be careful here, since a close below 2300 will most likely generate a downward movement to 2200 and 2150 . In the case of a positive outcome, a closure can be expected above the level of 2340 , and then enter a long position with a target of 2400 , then 2440 and higher. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1
Gold: Lower high confirming? Today's focus: Gold Pattern – Lower High swing point Support – 2290.50 to 2315 Resistance – 2338.40 Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Gold on its daily chart. Do we have a new swing lower in play after sellers formed a lower high? This could be the case, but we still need some confirmation. In today's video, we have run over our thoughts on the price and possibilities we are looking at. Currently, the USD does not influence Gold too much, but we have the FOMC and NFP this week. Keep an on these releases. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by Eightcap
$NFP Breakout Double Bottom Trading the double bottom pattern involves identifying a bullish reversal pattern on a price chart and making trading decisions based on the pattern's confirmation. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to trade the double bottom pattern: 1. **Identify the Double Bottom Pattern**: A double bottom pattern appears on a price chart after a downtrend and consists of two consecutive troughs (lows) with a peak (high) between them. The lows are approximately equal and signify a possible reversal in the downward trend. 2. **Confirm the Pattern**: Before initiating a trade based on the double bottom pattern, it's essential to confirm its validity. Look for several signs to confirm the pattern: - Volume: Ideally, the volume should decline as the pattern forms and increase when the price breaks above the confirmation level. - Symmetry: The two troughs should be roughly equal in depth and width, forming a "W" shape. - Price Breakout: Wait for the price to break above the peak (high) between the two troughs, confirming the pattern. 3. **Entry Point**: Enter a long position (buy) once the price breaks above the peak (high) that separates the two bottoms. Some traders prefer to wait for a slight pullback after the breakout for a better entry point. 4. **Stop Loss Placement**: Place a stop-loss order below the lowest point of the double bottom pattern or slightly below the breakout level. This helps to limit potential losses if the pattern fails to hold, and the price resumes its downtrend. 5. **Take Profit Target**: Calculate the distance between the lowest point of the pattern (the bottom of the "W") and the peak (high) that separates the two bottoms. Then, project this distance upwards from the breakout point. This distance can serve as a potential target for taking profits.
Long
by Crypto-Adda_Official
1
Gold | News Review and Its Impact on Gold MarketUS Labor Market Data Preview - Friday, April 5, 2024 To analyze the market's reaction to today's NFP data, it's crucial to review past market events. The Federal Reserve needs two conditions to ease interest rates: 1) Continued downtrend in inflation 2) Weakening labor market. Therefore, today's NFP data is the most critical news release. Previous NFP Data: Non-farm payroll: 275K new jobs Average hourly earnings: 0.1% (4.3% y/y) Unemployment rate: 3.9% Based on these figures, 60% of economists and investors believe the Fed will start cutting rates from June. NFP Forecasts: Various forecasting models, considering ISM Services Index, Manufacturing, ADP, and 4-week moving average of jobless claims, predict NFP to be between 200K and 250K jobs. Crucial Data Point: Contrary to popular belief, today's key data is not the total NFP figure but rather the change in the number of employed persons (Employed) last month and the number of people who wanted to be in the labor force but could not find a job (Unemployed). Last month, the number of employed persons decreased by 184K from January, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 334K, leading to a 0.2% rise in the unemployment rate. Technical Analysis for Gold: Personal Opinion: I am bullish on gold, and today's news is likely to support gold prices. Expected Price Movement: I anticipate a move to the 2285 support level followed by a strong upward move towards 2305 and 2330. Key Resistance: 2305 - 2310 and 2325 - 2330 Key Support: 2282 - 2285 and 2272 - 2277 Please note: This trend could change based on today's news. Additional Considerations: Inflation: If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could pressure the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting gold's upside potential. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions could boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Real Interest Rates: Rising real interest rates could make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. Overall, today's NFP data and other economic indicators will play a significant role in shaping gold's short-term direction. Traders should carefully monitor market news and data releases to make informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by uPaSKaL
29
Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pauseThe euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 4% for a fifth straight time on Thursday, as expected. Interest rates remain at record levels but Lagarde & Co. provided fresh hints that policy makers are looking to lower rates at the June meeting. The economic background appears favorable for a rate cut. Eurozone inflation has dropped to 2.4%, close to the 2% target and the economy is barely growing. ECB members, including those with more hawkish views, have been hinting at a June rate cut. The ECB statement echoed this view, saying if its confidence increases that inflation is moving towards the target “in a sustained manner”, then a rate cut would be appropriate. At her press conference, ECB President Lagarde noted that several members had voted in favor of a rate cut on Thursday. Lagarde added that the ECB could make a cut even if inflation remained above 2%, if the ECB was confident that inflation was moving in the right direction. It’s a very different story in the US, where the Federal Reserve is dealing with a surprisingly strong US economy. March nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations and US inflation climbed to 3.5%, up from 3.2% and above the forecast of 3.4%. Fed members are sounding hawkish and the markets have slashed rate cut expectations. After the hot US inflation report, Boston Fed President Collins said that the Fed may need to cut rates less than previously expected and New York Fed President Williams said there was “no clear need to adjust policy in the very near term”. The markets have lowered the odds of a June cut to just 24%, compared to 54% a week ago. A September cut was priced in at 91% a week ago but that has dropped to 72%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0651. Below, there is support at 1.0597 1.0749 and 1.0813 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA