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AUD/USD eyes RBA rate decisionThe Australian dollar is slightly lower on Monday, after sliding 0.90% on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6499, down 0.21%. Earlier, AUD/USD traded as low as 0.6486, its lowest level since mid-November. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 4.35% at Tuesday's meeting, the first of 2024. The RBA raised rates in November but has been reluctant to start trimming rates, even though inflation has been falling and retail sales fell sharply in December. There is still some distance to go in the inflation battle, with inflation running at 3.4% y/y. This is close to the upper band of the RBA's target range of 1-3%, but as the Fed has experienced in its battle to tame inflation, the last mile of the race has proven to be the toughest. What can we expect from the RBA on Tuesday? With inflation still elevated and sticky, we could see the central bank remain cautious and push back against rate cut expectations. Last week's inflation and retail sales reports were weaker than expected, prompting traders to bring forward bets on rate cuts. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 50-50 and an 80% probability in June. If Governor Bullock maintains its hawkish stance, the struggling Australian dollar could get a boost. The US nonfarm payroll report sizzled in January with a gain of 353,000, crushing the market estimate of 180,000. The December release was revised upwards to 333,000, up from 216,000. As well, wage growth rose 0.6% m/m, up from 0.4% in December and double the market estimate of 0.3%. This points to a robust labor market. The markets lowered expectations of a March rate cut to 20% after the employment release and that has fallen to 15% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 4% after the employment report. 0.6473 and 0.6433 are providing support There is resistance at 0.6541 and 0.6581
by OANDA
🔥 XAU/USD - What are the BEST zones for BUY & SELL ? (READ)Considering that after the announcement of the news, there is a high probability of price movements to collect liquidity and Stop Hunts, it is better to consider the important supply and demand ranges for possible BUY and SELL positions! From the important Supply Zones , we can mention $2072 to $2078, and also from the important demand zones , keep an eye on $2032 and $2020, respectively! In this way, the probability that you will fall into the trap of bears and bulls will be much less and the efficiency will be maximized! Some Folks Asked me about NFP news and its effect on the Forex market and Gold Price , Let's get into it : • Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are monthly measurements of how many workers there are in the US, excluding farm workers and a few other job types. The data is collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and released on the first Friday of every month. The NFP report is a key economic indicator that affects the forex market and the gold price. • The NFP report shows the health of the US economy and its potential for growth and inflation. A higher than expected NFP number means that more jobs were added to the economy, which could signal a strong demand for goods and services, a higher consumer spending, and a higher interest rate. This could boost the US dollar against other currencies, as it becomes more attractive for investors. A lower than expected NFP number means that fewer jobs were added to the economy, which could signal a weak demand, a lower consumer spending, and a lower interest rate. This could weaken the US dollar against other currencies, as it becomes less attractive for investors. • The gold price is also influenced by the NFP report, as gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset that protects against inflation and currency fluctuations. A higher than expected NFP number could lower the demand for gold, as investors may prefer to hold the US dollar or other riskier assets that offer higher returns. A lower than expected NFP number could increase the demand for gold, as investors may seek to hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. Therefore, the gold price tends to have an inverse relationship with the NFP report and the US dollar. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
112
Non-Pay Form | Gold Expected to be drop Non-Pay Form | Gold Expected to be drop Hey Traders .. Welcome back ! Todays after 2 hours Big news going to happen We Structured data from past history gold expected to move 50 pips above then probably hit the targets and touched our trend line which were seen in charts we are waiting for break out of support 2051-2050.00 then next point at 2042-2041-2040.00 if you guys knew how to trades you will catch up our idea tight target sets dropping 100+ pips cheers for the next update..
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by professionaltradersfx
EUR/USD gains ground as eurozone CPI dipsEUR/USD has edged higher in the European session and trading at 1.0890, up 0.18% on the day. The euro had a strong day on Thursday, gaining 0.50%. Inflation continues to fall in the eurozone, although the drop was very modest. CPI eased to 2.8% y/y in January, down from 2.9% in December and in line with the market estimate. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.4% in January, after a 0.2% gain in December, matching the market estimate. Food and energy prices decelerated in January and were the drivers behind the modest dip in inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is a better gauge of inflation trends, dropped from 3.4% to 3.3% y/y but was above the market estimate of 3.2%. This could be a source of concern for policy makers at the European Central Bank, as the core rate remains well above the ECB's 2% target. There are concerns about inflation risks to the upside, with higher transport prices due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war. The ECB remains cautious and ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the Middle East crisis was an "upside risk" to inflation. Lagarde said this week that the eurozone was "on a disinflationary trend" and that the ECB would be cutting rates. So in which direction is the ECB headed? Lagarde may be signalling that although she is on board for rate cuts, she remains concerned about inflation risks to the upside and may take her time before starting to chop rates. The ECB has kept rates unchanged at 4.0% for four straight months, and the markets are eyeing April or June as the dates for an initial rate cut. All eyes are on the US nonfarm payroll report later today. Earlier this week, the ADP employment report showed a drop in January, from a downwardly revised 158,000 to 107,000. The ADP report isn't considered a reliable guide for nonfarm payrolls, but the markets are expecting NFP to decline as well. The consensus estimate stands at 180,000, compared to 180,000 in December. If the release is wide of the estimate, we could see a strong reaction from the US dollar. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0905. Above, there is resistance at 1.0938 There is support at 1.0810 and 1.0748
by OANDA
🔥 EUR/USD - More Fall Ahead or ... ?! (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the Euro/Dollar chart, we can see that the price, based on the previous analysis, was able to fall exactly to the desired range and hit the final target! After the price reached the specified demand range on the chart, it increased again and grew to the supply range of 1.0887, which was accompanied by a heavy fall again with Mr. Powell's speech and is trading in the range of 1.08127. ! To make a better decision, we have to wait for the stabilization of the price! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
by ArmanShabanTrading
6
🧭💡 Dollar Dynamics: Sideways Awaits Feds/ I wait for the NFP !Hey traders, the FX Professor here, addressing the buzz: Why the silence on the dollar? Let's dive into the dollar index's sideways dance, a chart that speaks volumes! Our journey has been stellar, riding the long wave from the year 2020, then nailing the short with the iconic 'I scream, you scream, and Joe Biden short' in October 2022. Currently, we're in a holding pattern, eyes fixed on the Federal Reserve. Will they begin to ease? My take: quite likely, with elections on the horizon. Yet, they need compelling data to pivot, and that's where our focus shifts to Forex pairs, gold, and silver. It all kickstarts with the NFP this Friday. While some eyes are on the Fed's Wednesday address, I suspect they'll play it close to the vest, holding off on major reveals. Friday's NFP could be the catalyst for change if it delivers the data the Fed needs to start slashing interest rates. With inflation talk taking a backseat, the spotlight turns to jobs and GDP. It's time to tune into the dollar index, prime our Forex accounts, because we're on the cusp of an exciting year teeming with volatility. The stage is set, and the anticipation is high. Join me this Friday on TradingView for live trading action as we embrace the volatility head-on. Let the games begin! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Get ready for a volatile year and join the live trading action on TradingView: 🎢📈 NFP Trading Extravaganza: Ride the Volatility Wave with FX Professor! 🚀 Prepare for an exhilarating adventure into the heart of the financial markets! NFP day is my playground, and I absolutely revel in the twists and turns of volatility it brings. Link: www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by FX_Professor
#NFP/USDT 2h (ByBit) Falling broadening wedge breakoutNFPrompt looks good for bullish continuation after regaining 200MA support, it also has formed a morning star on 4h TF. ⚡️⚡️ #NFP/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (2.0X) Amount: 5.4% Current Price: 0.6873 Entry Targets: 1) 0.6853 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.9377 Stop Targets: 1) 0.5588 Published By: @Zblaba NEWCONNECT:NFP BYBIT:NFPUSDT.P #AI #NFT nfprompt.io Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +73.7% Possible Loss= -36.9% Estimated Gaintime= 3-6 days
Long
by TradingOn
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-05/01/2024 (NFP)Preferred direction: BUY Comment: As we know today, the first NFP this year. However, we also expect data on the US labor market from Canada. If for other instruments we expect a short-term fall in the American currency based on the technical picture, then in the case of this currency pair, not everything is so clear. The main reason, of course, is the same economic data on strength that we are waiting for from Canada today. Before all these important events (which will likely serve as a trigger for movement), a good breakout setup has been formed. Therefore, it is preferable to consider long-deals. As in most cases, we are considering two scenarios now. And given such a rich news background, it is better to use two at once with a common stop loss (we carefully consider and do not forget about risk management). The target for this trade is no higher than 1.34500. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
USD/JPY edges lower ahead of Tokyo Core CPIThe Japanese yen has started the week with slight gains and is trading at 144.39 in the European session, up 0.16%. It was a rough week for the yen, which declined 2.5% against the US dollar, which has looked sharp against most of the majors since New Year's. US nonfarm payrolls ended 2023 on a strong note. The economy added 216,000 jobs in December, compared to November's downwardly revised 173,000 and above the estimate of 170,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, below the estimate of 3.8%. As well, wage growth rose 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y, higher than the estimates of 0.3% and 3.9%. The employment report was stronger than expected, which could lead the Fed to delay plans to lower rates. Job growth remains resilient and the wage growth data indicates that inflation remains strong in the labour market and is still too high for the Fed. The Fed fund futures markets reacted to the employment report by lowering the odds of a March rate cut to 64%, compared to 68% just prior to the employment report. The Fed has acknowledged that it plans to trim rates but failed to provide any details of timing in the minutes of the December meeting. The Fed may decide to prolong the pause in rates until the second half of the year unless there is a significant drop in inflation or unforeseen weakness in the US economy. The Fed does not seem in any rush to cut rates and the markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing an initial rate cut in March. Japan's Tokyo Core CPI, which will be released on Tuesday, is expected to ease in December to 2.1% y/y, compared to 2.3% in November. Core inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 18 straight months, but the central bank has insisted that it will not tighten monetary policy until wage growth rises. 144.80 and 145.80 are the next resistance lines There is support at 143.60 and 142.63
by OANDA
Gold Puzzles: ISM Downturn, NFP Beats, and Thurday's CPI.In today's trading session, our attention is directed towards XAUUSD, where we're eyeing a buying opportunity around the 2008 zone. Gold, emblematic of a broader uptrend, currently finds itself in a correction phase, steadily approaching the key trend at the 2008 support and resistance area. This technical perspective serves as our initial guide. Diving into the specifics, the recent ISM figures revealed a notable downturn, falling from the forecasted 52.5 to the actual 50.6, signaling a slower expansion in the manufacturing sector than anticipated. This unexpected contraction has cast a shadow on the US economic outlook. Coupled with the recently released NFP data, where the actual job gains surpassed both the forecast (184k) and the previous (150k), a nuanced economic landscape is emerging. This intricate scenario, where manufacturing lags while employment gains outpace expectations, introduces a level of uncertainty. The mixed signals within the labor market further underline the potential for a dovish Fed. Adding to this equation, the CPI data becomes a pivotal factor. In this intricate dance of numbers, the potential for a softer CPI reading aligns with the narrative of a cautious Federal Reserve. Now, weaving these numbers into the fabric of our analysis, the combination of weak ISM figures, strong NFP job gains, and the prospect of a softer CPI contributes to the argument for USD shorts. As we traverse the complex economic landscape, gold emerges as a candidate for potential upside movements amid the increasing likelihood of USD weakness. Stay vigilant, Joe, and trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
4
⚡️Strifor || USDCHF-05/01/2024 (NFP)Preferred direction: SELL Comment: This currency pair most likely also forms a setup that is not in favor of the dollar. Here, we also expect a short-term fall in the American currency. As we see, before the NFP , the price began to accumulate before reaching the resistance level of 0.85696. In general, pushing the price to the level is a sign of a breakout, but here we have not reached the level, so we have the possibility of a false breakout or simply a rebound, which is less likely. Therefore, the priority scenario is precisely a false breakdown of the level of 0.85696 , and then a short-term fall towards 0.84500. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-05/01/2024 (NFP)Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The US dollar's main competitors are likely preparing to strengthen in the short term. The news background can contribute to this. The focus is, of course, on NFP . The market may not yet have recovered sufficiently after the holidays, and it is the NFP that can finally do this. Technically, the AUDUSD currency pair is looking long, probably even the best at the moment. The price has entered the limit buyer area, and the likelihood that he will defend this area is high. We are considering two scenarios, and, given today’s NFP , it is best to use it immediately with a general stop loss below support 0.66659 . It is necessary to take into account that scenario 2 is the formation of a false breakout, so stop loss should be taken with a margin. We place the growth target at 0.68399. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
🔥 XAU/USD - NFP's effect on the GOLD price (READ THE CAPTION)Well, as you can see, yesterday, gold was able to grow up to $2051, and after that, the price dropped again, and it is currently trading in the range of $2038! We have to see whether the NFP statistics will be announced today more than expected or less! If the actual rate is announced higher than the forecast, we will see a heavy fall in gold, and otherwise, gold will move to higher targets again! My first scenario is that gold will see lower targets like $2031 and $2020 in the short term! Be careful of extreme market movements and minimize your risk! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
34
THE KOG REPORT - NFP:KOG REPORT – NFP: This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. For todays report we’re going to use the same levels as the KOG Report published on Sunday but we’re going to use the hourly chart for our projections and illustrations of the potential movement to come. We can see so far this year, although only a few days in, we’re seeing quite a move to the downside on the metals so this NFP entails caution. We have our key level support here at 2030-35 order region as shown on the KOG Report which has given a temporary bounce. Below that we have 2025-7 which, if we see an extension of the move and is held, we feel will lead the price to target the higher order region 2050-55 and above that 2062-5 where we will then need to assess the price action and potentially look for a short back down to break the 2035 level. On the flip, if they take the price upside, which we’re thinking will happen, then 2050-55 and above that 2060-62 are possible targets for the longs with extension into the 2075-80 region where we may see a reaction in price. Going to keep is short this time, we’re too early in the year to even think about long term positions and would rather wait for next week to resume normal business. Please take this report as a guide only. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8