Nonfarm Payroll, RBA Interest rates – Week aheadBusy week ahead as September kicks in. As New Zealand and the United States elections slowly approach, the Coronavirus pandemic will most likely be the center focus for many parties and how they handle the post Coronavirus world. Here is your week ahead.
Tuesday, 1st September – Germany’s Inflation and Unemployment rate
Like most of Europe, Germany is experiencing an uptick in cases as a reopening of Europe too early takes its toll. However, this has not stopped protesters storming the German Government building in Berlin alongside Germany’s total cases ticked over 243,000. With prices of oil slowly increasing, analysts expect inflation to increase slightly by 0.1%. Furthermore, with Germany’s unemployment benefit allowing unemployed citizens to claim up to 67% of their previous wage, analysts predict no change in the unemployment rate at 6.4% in the week ahead.
Tuesday, 1st September and Wednesday 2nd September – Reserve bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Australia’s Year over Year GDP.
Australia continues to fight a hard battle with the Coronavirus, after their original strategy of having no lockdown has lead to massive spikes in Melbourne, Victoria. Australia recorded 123 new cases of the Coronavirus – all in the state of Victoria. Denita Wawn, Master Builders Australia’s Chief Executive, stated that “Our industry is facing a bath… Private sector investment is evaporating, and the government must step in to save businesses and jobs,” conveying how dire the situation is in Australia. However, the Reverse Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 0.25%. Any deviation from this consensus is most likely to move the Australian dollar significantly. Furthermore, Melbourne’s sustained lockdown has seen forecasts of GDP growth to drop to -5.3%, down 6.7% GDP growth of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
Tuesday 1st September – Italy’s Markit PMI.
One of the country’s worst-hit with the Coronavirus, Italy, has recorded over 268,000 cases with cases continue to spike, with newly registered cases yesterday just over 1,200. Italy is predicted to be one of the first to get a grant from the Bloc’s 750 Billion Euro grant as it suffers from worsening GDP growth pre-Coronavirus. Italy is set to release Manufacturing PMI’s to 52, slightly higher from 51.9 last month.
Tuesday 1st September – Euro core inflation rate Year over Year
Europe is currently experiencing a resurgence in Coronavirus cases as an early lifting of lockdowns just before Summer has forced a spike across Europe. However, many countries are against a second lockdown due to the Economic calamity it will bring. Analysts predict a drop in the inflation growth rate to 0.9%, down from 1.2% in July.
Non-farm payroll – Friday, 4th September
The United States continues to post daily double-digit Coronavirus cases as their total case count tops 6 Million. As elections approach in just over a month, President Donald Trump continues to let the economy open to win over voters. Non-farm payrolls are predicted to be just over 1.4 million, down from a previous 1.73 million print.
As usual, we have many critical economic events that traders need to watch out for to avoid being whipsawed by the market in the week ahead.
Trade Cautiously.
Nfpday
US30 ConsolidationUS30 seems to be consolidating near the daily resistance level. Next week I will be watching for a break of this consolidation area to the upside or downside to determine which bias I'd be taking.
NFP and unemployment rates were favorable so I am curious to see if this will cause a break of the resistance zone or a bounce back down to the downside.
NASDAQ - ON NFP- THOUGHTSThis view is more of a confirmation of my analysis for the week, I am waiting for the end of day to be able to tell where price will be going next but as a day trader, there often something to trade. Price tested a new high and could be looking at forming a new high low before a higher high.
USD/JPY SHORT NFPHello everybody !
Today is NFP day !!!
This Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the first monthly labor market number to show the COVID-19 impact.
Economists are looking for only a 100,000 decline in payrolls because NFPs are measured as of March 12. The first state-wide stay-at-home order was not issued by California until March 20 and quickly spread across the nation in the days that followed.
By the end of March millions of U.S. businesses were shuttered but may not have laid off their employees until the end of the month.
As a result, we will not see the full extent of the damage until revisions are released next month and the April numbers will be ugly.
Numbers like this puts the U.S. economy at serious risk of recession especially as lockdown measures are extended to April 30, and will most likely extend well into May.
In addition to a forecasted 100,000 drop in NFP, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 3.8% from 3.5%, while average hourly earnings growth should slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. USD/JPY will be the most sensitive to these numbers but there could be other opportunities as well.
If non-farm payrolls fall by 100,000 or less and the unemployment rate declines to 3.7% or better, the U.S. dollar will rally but the gains should be short-lived as investors eye any good numbers with skepticism.
Selling USD/JPY on a bounce should be the right move.
Personally I'm aiming around 20-25 pips on that news.
It's important to keep the risk management in mind so we are here to make money not to lose money so, if you aren't sure about news, it best for you to stay away. PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL !!!
Have a good day and a wonderful weekend !
Please hit the like and follow button !
EURUSD NFP MOVEToday is NFP .NFP forecast is green. If NFP goes bulish as expected then EURUSD will go down to 1.09574 .But this down move is temporary . After finishing the NFP day EURUSD will move upside to 1.11324 as per our analysis .
Stay with FOREX_CENTER_BD
Md Mostofa FX(retd. Army)
Please comment your view about EURUSD on comment box .
You have some minutes, probably. I mean, it's clear. Check the charts, AU it's really too much oversold, 5 weekly red candle, and this is not usual. We are near a weekly support zone, and i don't want to spent lot of words to justify my ideas: AUDUSD is up to go up for some days, we are in reversal zone and there is a divergence on h1 charts that confirm that. And news. Remember the news, ready to push up the price. So, it's just question of minutes, probably.
Watch how Gold drops on NFP!NFP trade ⚡️
Guys I guess you are ready to trade NFP today. Moreover you could have already notice that I’m a big fan of Gold and today’s trade is no different. I’m going to trade NFP on Gold.
First observation - Gold swaying near 1550 looks quite balanced and prepared for the event. Something tells me there should be some good reaction we have to be ready to catch it!
So basically my forecast of today’s NFP figure is positive surprise (above consensus of 164K) and hence negative reaction of Gold. In the very primitive but still working reasoning, strong NFP is a sign of economic expansion => hawkish Federal Reserve = > stronger Dollar 💪. The Fed made it clear it's done with rate cuts so basically fundamental bias is now to the upside.
Why I think that December NFP is going to be strong:
- Initial Jobless Claims: Very good December downside trend which means less and less people claim unemployment benefits in the US.
- Non-Manufacturing ISM: 55.5 points vs 54 points expected. Recall also that 80% of labor force work in the services industry in the US.
- Positive expectations from the signing of the trade deal between US and China. For firms it is a strong signal to increase hiring, Capex.
- Unusually mild weather in December - more hiring in construction sector.
The trade setup 💰
Sell XAUUSD from current levels ($1550)
Take Profit - 1540.50
Stop loss: 1553.50
Risk reward ratio: 1 : 3
Please support my sh*t with likes!!! :D
USDCADNFP & CAD news at the same time today, this pair is lookign very intereting to look at as the news hits. As we know, institutions use news as an excuse to move price to it's intended targets where they can mitigate out of or get closer to mitigation.
We have an open order just below 31975 and also imbalance we could target for entry to the upside before we see a potential long term sell off. DXY also looking like a simialr set up which I have been anticipating for some weeks now.
PATIENCE - CONFIRMATION - ENTRY - PROFIT
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCHF - Another Fed Cut?, BoJo's Plan Falls FlatIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #USDCHF
#GBPUSD moves on:
- BoJo plan optimism on Commons
- BoJo plan falling flat on Good Friday agreement threat
- BoJo plan creates new borders, still seen as backstop
#USDCHF looking bearish on:
- Weak ISM NMI
- Increased chances of rate cuts
- HIgher fears of recession
All eyes on NFP today! Can watch live here: www.orbex.com
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Expecting a Rally SoonLooking at NZDUSD H1 time frame, we can see that price is currently trading in a correction. This is a bullish correction formation at this point in time which indicates that we should see a break to the upside. I am looking to trade wave 4 to the top of the structure and will then wait for confirmation of a break to the upside or a reversal to complete wave 5 first.
Happy trading!
Linton White
JP Markets
South Africa