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Nfpday

Watch how Gold drops on NFP!NFP trade ⚡️ Guys I guess you are ready to trade NFP today. Moreover you could have already notice that I’m a big fan of Gold and today’s trade is no different. I’m going to trade NFP on Gold. First observation - Gold swaying near 1550 looks quite balanced and prepared for the event. Something tells me there should be some good reaction we have to be ready to catch it! So basically my forecast of today’s NFP figure is positive surprise (above consensus of 164K) and hence negative reaction of Gold. In the very primitive but still working reasoning, strong NFP is a sign of economic expansion => hawkish Federal Reserve = > stronger Dollar 💪. The Fed made it clear it's done with rate cuts so basically fundamental bias is now to the upside. Why I think that December NFP is going to be strong: - Initial Jobless Claims: Very good December downside trend which means less and less people claim unemployment benefits in the US. - Non-Manufacturing ISM: 55.5 points vs 54 points expected. Recall also that 80% of labor force work in the services industry in the US. - Positive expectations from the signing of the trade deal between US and China. For firms it is a strong signal to increase hiring, Capex. - Unusually mild weather in December - more hiring in construction sector. The trade setup 💰 Sell XAUUSD from current levels ($1550) Take Profit - 1540.50 Stop loss: 1553.50 Risk reward ratio: 1 : 3 Please support my sh*t with likes!!! :D
FX:XAUUSDShort
by PipVision
USDCADNFP & CAD news at the same time today, this pair is lookign very intereting to look at as the news hits. As we know, institutions use news as an excuse to move price to it's intended targets where they can mitigate out of or get closer to mitigation. We have an open order just below 31975 and also imbalance we could target for entry to the upside before we see a potential long term sell off. DXY also looking like a simialr set up which I have been anticipating for some weeks now. PATIENCE - CONFIRMATION - ENTRY - PROFIT
by jedahs
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCHF - Another Fed Cut?, BoJo's Plan Falls FlatIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #USDCHF #GBPUSD moves on: - BoJo plan optimism on Commons - BoJo plan falling flat on Good Friday agreement threat - BoJo plan creates new borders, still seen as backstop #USDCHF looking bearish on: - Weak ISM NMI - Increased chances of rate cuts - HIgher fears of recession All eyes on NFP today! Can watch live here: www.orbex.com Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
EURUSD could make a crucial correction today as NFP is comingEURUSD's resistance held perfectly and we could see a huge sell off on all EUR pairs as yesterdays Interest rate decision held 0% as expected. We could see today and nice pullback, which could continue to the next week and next week is gonna be huge for EURUSD as i will be aiming and sniping targets for longterm shorts! Let's wait for crucial areas here (Red zone and daily key level on 1.13000). I will upload as soon as i get into shorts!
by ForexThief
Excellent figures on NFP as a reason to buy the dollarAlright, so today will be published statistics on the US labor market. In this review we will remind its content, talk about how to respond to a particular indicator, as well as tell our expectations. The block of statistical data on the US labor market includes a number of other significant indicators besides an NFP (non-farm payrolls) - the number of new jobs created outside agriculture. For previous data and forecasts, see table below. The block of statistical data Pre Forecast 15:30 USA 3 Number of new jobs created outside of agriculture 134K 190K 15:30 USA 3 Average hourly wage (m/m) 0.3% 0.3% 15:30 USA 3 Unemployment rate 3.7% 3.7% How to respond to a particular indicator and why? Growth in employment generation created outside the agricultural sector above forecasts - is a relevant reason for buying the dollar because it is a strong signal that the economy is in good shape. The average hourly wage growth is also a reason for buying the dollar. But the logic here is slightly different. The fact is that wage growth is a signal to the Fed that inflationary pressure in the economy is growing, which means that the Central Bank must respond to this, for instance, by raising interest rates. The interest rate hike is the cause for the growth of the dollar, which is becoming more attractive against other currencies. The decline in unemployment is a positive signal for the dollar since it indicates an improvement of the economic performance of the country. But it is worth warning about the existence of the so-called natural level of unemployment, to fall below which is undesirable. So, unemployment in the United States is already somewhat below this mark, so a further decline is no longer desirable. In total, the increase of the NFP with the average wage growth - a clear signal in favor of buying the dollar. If the data is mixed (for example, the NFP is better than expected, and the wage growth is worse than in forecasts), the reaction may be unpredictable. Let’s remind that we await the NFP to be much higher than outlooks - somewhere around 250K. Motivation - a great shape of the US economy and the labor market, Trump's tax reform, the end of the hurricane season and consequently the sharp increase in labor demand linked with the end of the pause due to hurricanes, as well as simply excellent data from ADP, published on Wednesday. Accordingly, with such expectations, the most probable scenario is the dollar growth in the foreign exchange market. Taking into account that yesterday the dollar was heavily sold out, there is a good opportunity to buy it cheaper, which we recommend using.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade24Fx
How should we interpret yesterday's ADP data?We continue to prepare our followers to the most important event of the week or probably even of a month - labor market statistics of the USA. Yesterday, traditionally, a couple of days before official statistics, data from the ADP Research Institute on the level of employment in the private sector were published. Recall, analysts had expected growth rate at 187K. We noted that considering the current form of the US economy, we should expect the fact to exceed the forecast. Actually, the way it turned out - the data came out much better than analysts' expectations and amounted to +227K. This is a great indicator that confirms the fact that the US labor market is in the best form over the last 10 years. Is it worth it to extrapolate these figures on Friday data on NFP? In yesterday's review, we noted that the level of correlation between data on ADP and NFP is about 25%. So the chances that the coincidence will be intense are not so high (about ¼). We provide some statistical data (see table below). Date ADP NFP delta 7.2017 158 222 64 8.2017 178 209 31 9.2017 237 156 -81 10.202 135 -33 -168 11.202 235 261 26 12.202 190 228 38 1.2018 250 148 -102 2.2018 234 200 -34 3.2018 235 313 78 4.2018 241 103 -138 5.2018 204 164 -40 6.2018 178 223 45 7.2018 177 213 36 8.2018 219 157 -62 9.2018 163 201 38 10.202 230 134 -96 As we can see, data on ADP and NFP usually differ significantly. On average, ADP comes out 30K better than NFP data. Tellingly, periods of the excess of ADP over NFP are replaced by an excess of NFP over ADP. That is, it is a high probability that this time (this Friday), the ADP numbers will be worse than the NFP (last month they were much better). This means that we may fully expect the NFP growth not at 190K, as analysts expect, but at 250-260K. And although the forecast seems quite optimistic, we consider it is realistic, especially given that after the end of the hurricane season, the demand for labor usually increases sharply. Our recommendations on the dollar are unchanged in this light - looking the points for the dollar purchases.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade24Fx
What to Expect from Today's NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! What to Expect from Tonight NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! Above shown three different set of arrows (Three Different scenarios ) Scenario 1 (Green Arrows) >WAY better than expected NFP report (Bullish) Trend line continuation. USDJPY may have a spike and retest before a rejection from the major psychological level of 114.5 before going back down to trend line before retesting again.Breakout will likely to occur. Scenario 2 (Blue Arrows)> Neutral NFP report REMEMBER!! MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT. THEREFORE a not so "Neutral" report may be responded with a dovish spike before potentially forming a Head & Shoulder. Neckline is perfectly formed at 50.0 fib retracement. Scenario 3 (Red Arrows)> Bad NFP report This will be a perfect disasters for bears. Since MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT, A Bad report will likely tank this pair to the 61.8 Fib Support at 113.3 or even lower. A support turned resistance will either form at the 50.0 fib or 61.8 fib. Goodluck Fellas! For my live trades. You could mirror me at cm.pepperstone.com
by dmcjk95
EURUSD NFP Strategy: Into the DipTrade tension between the US and China are contributing to the recent USD strength at the time of this writing. New tariffs on China may lead to a retaliation, causing some nervousness in global markets. As a result the focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may be limited, however, some reaction is often seen when the US employment figures are released. Initiating a trade at market price prior to the NFP may require a larger protective stop due to the volatile market conditions that are often seen upon the release of the figures. Our strategy is fairly straightforward, a buy limit order may be more appropriate. I highlighted on the chart the key levels in EURUSD. Do note that this setup is for experienced technical traders only. An appropriate entry price may be at 1.1547, protective stop layered at 1.1500, targeting 1.1620. The estimated duration for the strategy is no longer than 30 - 45 minutes. The risk ratio is poor but it is a short-term strategy. I must also highlight the risk of exercising the strategy as significant volatility may be seen. Over-leveraging is not encouraged. The aim of the protective stop is to contain losses rather than prevent losses. I will rarely post trade ideas with an entry, stop and take profit in tradingview, this is an exception. In an event EURUSD will continue trading lower prior to the NFP where it is only 40 pips from the entry price I suggest to cancel the order. In an event EURUSD does not trigger the entry within 15 minutes after the release I suggest to cancel the buy limit order.
Long
by DDMARKETS