EURUSD Technical Forecast on NFP 07.02.2025Overall Trend & Context:
The EURUSD pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has recently been consolidating on the lower times.
Fundamental Considerations for the NFP:
Consensus Forecast (High Probability) - Most analysts forecast a gain in the 169K–170K range, which lines up with recent trends. A neutral result would suggest that the labor market is still solid.
Stronger-than-Expected Outcome (Medium Probability) - If the report comes in well above consensus (eg: above 190K jobs), it could reinforce expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve.
Weaker-than-Expected Outcome (Low Probability) - A result below expectations (eg: fewer than 135K jobs) might trigger a reassessment of the US economic outlook, we will need to watch the markets and prepare for dynamic shifts.
Technical Findings:
Weekly - Bearish and trading well below EMA's.
Daily - Bearish & showing signs of 25 EMA rejection. Previous distribution is holding price at bay.
4 Hour - Strong supply levels holding and trading below the 200 EMA.
1 Hour - Close to overbought levels and LTF distribution is holding.
Important Notes:
DXY is at a previous demand which proved to be a challenge to break through in the past.
GBPUSD & EURUSD can have variations in the short term correlation but the technicals both align, which reinforces our EURUSD narrative.
USDJPY technicals remain bullish on the long term however, the short term is in a downtrend and has reached a daily demand - we could potentially see a bullish reaction from here (based on DXY strength and the negative correlation with EURUSD)
Potential Scenarios & Probabilities:
If the lows at 1.03800 fail we may need to adjust our entry zones based on where liquidity and supply are found.
If price reaches the weaker supply level closer to the release of the NFP we can enter, however there is a chance we could get stuck in some drawdown if supply isn't strong enough to push through.
HIGH PROFILE NEWS RELEASES ARE DOUBLE EDGED IF YOU'RE NOT CAREFUL. YOU DO NOT NEED TO BASE YOUR ENTIRE TRADING CAREER ON IT. STAY OUT IF YOU'RE NOT COMFORTABLE TRADING NEWS.
AS TRADERS, YOUR PRIMARY JOB IS TO PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL - WITHOUT CAPITAL YOU CAN'T MAKE ANY MOVES.
Trade smart.
Hope you all make money if you're trading today!
Apex out!
OANDA:EURUSD FX:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD OANDA:USDJPY TVC:DXY OANDA:GBPUSD PEPPERSTONE:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY
Nfptrading
#NFP (SPOT) entry range ( 0.1620- 0.1760)T.(0.5340) SL(0.1561)BINANCE:NFPUSDT
entry range ( 0.1620- 0.1760)
Target1 (0.2400) - Target2 (0.3390)- Target3 (0.4400)- Target4 (0.5340)
3 Extra Targets(optional) in chart, if you like to continue in the trade with making stoploss very high.
SL .1D close below (0.1561)
Golden Advices.
**********************
* collect the coin slowly in the entry range.
* Please calculate your losses before the entry.
* Do not enter any trade you find it not suitable for you.
* No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey.
Useful Tags.
**********************
My total posts
( www.tradingview.com)
1Million Journey
( www.tradingview.com )
( www.tradingview.com )
********************************************************************************************************************** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA #SC #JOE #RDNT #IQ #CFX #BICO #CTSI #KMD #FXS #DEGO #FORTH # AST #PORTAL #CYBER #RIF #ENJ #ZIL #APT #GALA #STEEM #ONE #LINK #NTRN #COTI #RENDER #ICX #IMX #ALICE #PYR #PORTAL #GRT #GMT # IDEX #NEAR #ICP #ETH #QTUM #VET #QNT #API3 #BURGER .
NFP Possible opportunity and trading setupsToday's NFP print is coming in 2h and 30m, trading plan following.
In the last couple of days we got higher Labor data with Jobless claims, Jolts data printing way better than market expectations, and these 2 components fit into the NFP this might mean that on the aggregate the 185K US NFP estimation might be slightly higher than that. Anyways, let's move into the NFP now.
The bulk of market participants are between 150-200K and for exaggerated movements, we should look for anything below 150K for US$ shorting or 200K for US$ long. As a second layer of risk, we can use 125K to the downside and 225K to the upside which will give us the ultimate trading conviction.
US NFP printing higher than 200K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing higher than 225K (Risk x2)
EURUSD - GBPUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔽 USDJPY 🔼
US NFP printing lower than 150K (Risk x1)
US NFP printing lower than 125K (Risk x2)
NZDUSD - AUDUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔼
-Extra notes-
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) and Unemployment rate need to be considered as a second layer of conviction into this trade setup...
They are similarly essential and if they give a very different picture than NFP then we should be considering this in our analysis and either deduct any risk from our positions or even close our positions after all.
Average hourly earnings YoY have a previous Result of 4.6% and an estimation of 4.3% above 4.4% or below 4.2%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised by a result of 4.2% and below or 4.4% and above.
The US Unemployment rate has a previous result of 3.5% and an estimation forecast of 3.6%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised with a result of 3.4% and below and 3.7% or above.
Consider the above as possible conflicting factors or boosting factors to the NFP result, also don't forget that the Unemployment rate lower is US$ hawkish, and the Unemployment rate higher is US$ dovish.
Good Chance to Long After NFPWe had a breakout to the upside from the ranging market but NFP made it come back to the mid-range zone.
Here the candle confirmation is very vital, there are 2 possibilities, price completing the inefficiency caused due to NFP and continue rising or even drop for common demand zone (bottom green line) and make it way back up for the supply.
Anyway, we go long on the best confirmation we get.
Apply strict risk management.
We aim for another great week.