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Natural Gas

Ultra Short Term and Mid Term view of NATURAL GAS NG UNGTickers: NG1!, UNG Short term view: We are finding weak support at $4.90 level on NG, or $17.50 on UNG. We are in overall BEAR BIAS MARKET (even with the short term uptrend in the larger equities and bond market) so we will retain the retracement from the SELLERS perspective. We find a strong case to take profit at $5.20 (NG1!) or $18.15 (UNG) TP1: $5.20 (NG1!) / $18.15 (UNG) TP2: $5.35 (NG1!) / $18.80 (UNG) There is a possibility if the market exuberance continues, we can consider a mid-term view of NG MIDTERM VIEW : SHORT TERM VIEW:
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by rook2pawn
3
NATURAL GAS Futures (NG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 600.5 Pivot: 516.5 Support: 327.8 Preferred Case: On H4, as the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending channel, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 516.5. which is in line with the overlap resistance to the 1st support at 327.8, where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 600.5, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Short
by Genesiv
Natural Gas: The supply-demand dynamic is at a critical stageDeutsche Bank reported that in a particularly critical phase is the supply-demand dynamics regarding natural gas towards the winter season, which the behavior of households will be decisive in the coming months, as their consumption represents a large percentage of total consumption. A supply failure is likely to be avoided at least as the scenarios confirm that a 20% YoY reduction in consumption this winter (and flat annual demand thereafter) is likely to lead to some shortages either early in 2023 or the winter of 2023/24. The reduction in Germany remains at 40%, while if demand falls by only 10% YoY stocks will not be exhausted even in such a scenario. For certain, fill levels would fall below 10% in late winter 2022/23, but this would not put energy security in doubt until 2024. The European Commission is working on proposals to limit prices. While negotiating with reliable suppliers, for instance, Norway, and strengthening common markets seem to be the Commission’s preferred options, the idea of ​​a (temporary) price cap on imported natural gas is gaining ground. The greater the potential for the implementation of a cap the lower the success of the implementation of the first two measures. Such an implementation could lead to increase supply risks, depending on the design of such an import price cap which would accompany the mandatory demand reduction. From an Elliot wave perspective, we will examine the Natural Gas chart to see its potential move in the short to mid-term. Looking at the weekly chart, natural gas made an impulsive five-wave rally from the lows, which suggests that low is in place and we can expect a bigger recovery. However, in Elliott waves, after every five-wave rise we can expect a slow down in three waves, so we are tracking now an (A)-(B)-(C) correction before the uptrend resumes. First support is around 5.3 level, while second support would be around 3.5 level. All the best! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
NYMEX:NG1!
by ew-forecast
1
NG rally imminent creating BOIL rally - call strategyI expect NG to rally off the lower trend line of the pennant and go to at least the $8.47 liquidity zone. This is not purely a technical play as it is the season to expect increases in gas consumption/demand. Technically all the signs of a rally are present. The Weis waves for supply are decreasing and demand is increasing. The accumulation/distribution line has turned up. There is an increase in volume associated with the buys sufficient to build momentum to cross the creek/ break through the upper trend line. My target for NG is based on the liquidity left there from the last swings. My first target for Natural Gas is $7.50. Second is $7.72. The trade will be invalidated south of the lower pennant trend line so a 'stop' placed there. I am playing this long with October call options in BOIL While I am purchasing BOIL and not NG, my stop will be triggered by NG quote trigger - crossing 5 cents under the low of 9/26 at $6.72. It is possible there will be a shakeout/spring/liquidity grab before the real move so cannot set stop too tight. This is what I see in NG1!: And this is my chart for BOIL: My play is options. Aiming for a home run on this. It is possible that both NG and BOIL will bounce off the targets the first time, so if you copy the naked option play the perfect play sells the calls on the pullback and buys back lower. But be careful being greedy! :)
NLong
by offrover
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Confirmed Breakout 💨 Last week, I shared with you a head and shoulders pattern formation that I spotted on Natural Gas on a daily time frame. The price has successfully closed below its neckline. The price is currently heading towards 6.175. Bias remains very bearish. If you missed the entry, consider an occasional retest of a broken neckline. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
NShort
by VasilyTrader
4
The head and shoulder pattern means only one thingNatural Gas behave erratically and its extremely chaotic. It likes to give you the assurance that you are in control while sneaking and stealing your money away. It shows a head and shoulder patter, an even double top pattern. All the technical markings are showing one thing, NG! is ready to reverse it's price action. But when it's clear, too clear should you believe NG! I wouldn't. Technical analysis says NG should reach $5 but my gut feeling says it will try to rip you off one last time. I would expect the great crash around next January. Not now. But if it happens now, make sure to stock up some for really good long positions during the winter.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by titus22045
Natural gas: head and shoulders top pattern; $5 in sight?US natural gas prices have formed a head and shoulders top pattern, which may signal a weakening of the current major bullish trend and a subsequent reversal into a bearish one. The left shoulder coincided with the relative highs at the end of July at $9.30/MMbtu, a level that was then followed by a pullback to $7.53 (August 8) prior to the beginning of a new rally toward the head at nearly $10. The right shoulder was formed by the decline from $9.97 to $7.80, followed by a brief rebound at $9.22 and another decline to the current $7.86. Although a brief breakdown was seen in the September 19 session, natural gas is now testing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If confirmed, we could see a return to the level of $5.30, which were hit in early July 2022. Additional bearish technical signals for the price of US natural gas include the MACD oscillator dipping below the zero line and the RSI slightly pointing south. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Capitalcom
1
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Technical Outlook 💨 Natural Gas formed a huge head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame. 7.33 - 7.88 is its wide horizontal neckline. If the price breaks and closes below the neckline, it will be a very strong bearish signal. I believe that then the market can easily drop to 6.17 level. Remember, that for now, a neckline represents a strong demand area. Consider shorting only after its breakout. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
NShort
by VasilyTrader
6
💶 EUR; Lowest Rate in 19 Years ( Risk of Energy Crisis )🆖As the risks of an energy crisis increase, the euro is nearing its lowest level in 19 years Today, the price of natural gas has increased by 9%, and the price of electricity for one year in Germany is 14 times higher than the level of one year ago. The numbers are crippling for heavy industries, with Germany's DAX down 2.3 percent today, the steepest drop in the global index. The euro has strengthened over the past six weeks as the US dollar weakened against a less accommodative Federal Reserve, but that rally appears to have come to an end. Meanwhile, Europe's economic outlook is rapidly deteriorating. The EUR/USD low was at0.9952 in July and is now about 20 pips away. If this rate breaks, the euro will hit its lowest level since late 2002.What is surprising is that the people of Europe have not yet realized how bad the economic situation will be. There is a lag in energy price increases that has not yet been felt and depends on different countries and contract structures, but there is a lot of difficulty ahead. ✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research. 💚 if you're fan of my analyses please follow me , give a big thumbs 👍 OR drop a comment 🗯
by PRO_SMART_Trader
5
EUR/USD analysis: US-EU natural gas gap narrowsRecent moves in the EUR/USD exchange rate have been driven primarily by the price differential between natural gas in the United States and Europe, rather than by the ECB's historic rate hike last week. Over the last 90 days, the correlation coefficient between EUR/USD and US-EU gas price differentials is 0.88, indicating a very strong relationship between the two variables. The price of gas in Europe has decreased drastically over the course of the past week, with the Dutch TTF benchmark falling by nearly 40% from its highs of €330/Mwh to its current level of €190/Mwh. This was aided by higher-than-expected EU gas storage levels at this time of year, as well as speculation in Europe about a natural gas price cap. When measured in dollars per million British thermal units ($/MMbtu), the European Dutch TTF is around $61/MMbtu right now, or about $53 more expensive than the US Henry Hub gas price, but significantly lower than the previous price-gap peak of $92/MMbtu. The narrowing Henry Hub-TTF price spread from $92/MMbtu to $53/MMbtu has helped the EUR/USD rally from 0.987 to 1.011. What next can we expect? This week, European nations are expected to announce long-awaited energy emergency measures aimed at lowering skyrocketing gas prices and alleviating the pressures associated with a complete Russian gas shutdown. If the market sees the announcements about energy policy as bad news for European gas prices (Dutch TTF), the spread between European and US gas prices may continue to narrow, which would sustain the euro in the short term. However, despite the fact that the price difference between European Dutch TTF and US Henry Hub gas has narrowed, European gas is still nearly eight times more expensive than US gas. This continues to be a significant drag on the European growth outlook, thus capping the euro's upside potential in the medium term. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
2