Natural Gas
Natural Gas - Bought the DipNatural Gas prices got hammered this past week. There's too much supply and not enough demand however, prices are near the bottom of the trading range and Summer heat should give prices a boost soon.
It's also worth mentioning that the Dollar DXY is trending lower and which is bullish for all commodities.
Prices are breaking out of a downtrend so I've opened a long position on the September(U) contract.
It's nearing the end of the month and the August(Q) contract will expire soon.
+1 @ $1.725 ($QGU20)
Is this year any different?5 years running July has seen a downtrend. Is this year any different or is it even worse than average?
Natural Gas Daily Cycle UpdateJune 26 is well confirmed as the daily cycle low.
The bulls were strong early in the cycle but now appears to have been a strong counter trend rallied fueled by weather changing short term fundamentals.
Bulls do still have a chance but with the weak bounce that failed this past week price action favors the bears.
Depending on the bear strength price targets would be $1.50 or $1.30, there is a chance for substantially lower due to current market conditions
If fundamentals don't change much from now $1.50 will offer substantial support.
Natural Gas: Channel Down on 1D.NG is trading on a Channel Down on the 1D chart (RSI = 48.535, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 20.341) since the May 5th Top. The MACD is currently making a sell cross, so if the Former Higher Low trend-line breaks (dashed line), we will sell up to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
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Natural Gas - Buy the HeatHot weather will likely boost Natural Gas prices in the near term so I opened a long position after price broke above $1.80 again.
$QG - E-mini Natural Gas Futures
+1 @ $1.815
Sell Limit -1 @ $1.94
Additionally, the MACD is showing bullish momentum on the 4hr chart and prices are being supported by the 50 and 200 EMA. If price clears $1.83 I see the momentum taking it up to $1.94 at the very least and $2.04 at the most. Should prices fall I might buy more and average down my cost basis since I don't think prices will stay down for very long under these conditions.
weather.com
Natural Gas Price Levels July 10Natural gas continued higher after brief consolidation before running into resistance.
Two ways of looking at natural gas price action. The first is the major low is in and bulls have proven that. The other is price was oversold and is only a strong counter trend rally due to hot temperatures and shorts taking profit.
I've shown possible price action for the coming week based on support and resistance levels.
Natural GasNG has piqued my interest these last few weeks.
From a new quarter century low, to the Oracle of Omaha purchasing all of Dominion Energy's NG assets, somethings happening in this space..
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Catching a Pullback
Natural gas is approaching a rising trend line on a daily.
on 1H the price has formed a double top with a lower high breaking and closing below 1.62 minor support.
now the price may go lower.
target levels:
1.576
1.550
Natural Gas Daily Cycle Bullish ScenarioThis bullish scenario is only for reference, I do not consider it the most likely outcome.
For the bulls to turn this into a recovery likely need to see only brief consolidation before continuation.
As much as this is a case for the bulls it is a cautionary message for the bears. Trade with a open mind and remain protected at all time if the bulls got momentum it may happen quickly once shorts start covering and fomo from those left behind sets in.
Natural Gas Daily Cycle Neutral and Bearish TargetsSince natural gas has made new lows and continued the downtrend it is likely price actual is down or possibly sideways for the remainder of summer.
Will be watching price action structure over the next few days.
Due to current fundamentals $1.30 may be on the high side for bearish price action. It would be very possible for price to declined substantially if fundamentals deteriorate further.
Natural Gas Daily Cycle Low June 26Unless there is a substantial decline in price daily cycle low was on June 26.
Bullish price action from April and May did not continue into June with substantial fundamental changes the past months.
Natural Gas: Excellent Buy Opportunity for Long-term Investors.Natural Gas is trading within a Channel Down (on the log scale) on the 1W chart (RSI = 45.584, MACD = -0.111, ADX = 31.401) since 2009. This pattern provides very accurate Cycles, bullish when a Lower Low is made (green arrows) and bearish when a Lower High is made (red arrows).
At the moment the price has just made contact with the Lower Low trend-line, making Natural Gas an automatic long-term buy opportunity for the next 2-3 years. Keep a few reserves for the lower slope dotted Lower Low trend-line for one last buy if needed. Depending on your risk tolerance book the profit just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and re-buy on the test of the 1W MA50 as support. This pattern took place on the previous two Cycles.
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Natural Gas Weekly Cycle UpdateWeekly trend did not change, new lows made.
Cycle low target date in August or September.
With the continued fundamental uncertainty the natural gas down trend has continued.
Price will likely continue to be extremely volatile.
LONG COGExpecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
Natural Gas - Summer 2020As of now, expecting lots of chop within a range between $1.50 and $1.83 all Summer.
Supply is abundant and demand is slow however, bankruptcies from 25-year low prices will soon take chunks out of production and demand may have bottomed already. Hot weather forecasts in high demand states (the South and Northeast) should also pop prices. Risk to the downside is if New York starts locking down again, signalling more demand loss on the way.
Trade strategy:
Buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top and/or on bounces from the 200 (4hr) EMA
If there is a daily close below $1.50 or some kind of big push below that level I'll close all positions.
Active trades ($QG Natural Gas E-Micro Futures):
+1 @ $1.53
Natural Gas Bounce Important Price Levels Natural gas has started bouncing after significant declines. The strength of this bounce will likely determine price action for the summer.
See previous charts for reference.
Trading plan for Natural Gas- Short Strategy – NG1The market goes back down but two resistance could limit the fall
And don ‘t forget to take your profits…
