XLE IS THE PLACE FOR MEBuy cheap. Sell expensive. Buy fear. Sell/short greed. I don't have an established trend here but I like energy long term. Now let's hope that ETF's don't collapse.
Natural Gas
Natural Gas Daily Downtrend ContinuesWith the break of $1.75 natural gas continues the daily down trend. Bulls still have a chance to put in a higher low above $1.61 to start changing the weekly trend.
Expected cycle low is only 3-4 weeks away, price targets remain the same.
See previous charts for reference.
Natural Gas Daily Cycyle, UpdateMid cycle strength is notable but did not break structure.
Continuation above $1.998 & $2.025 invalidates previous expectations.
Continuation below $1.75 confirms previous price targets.
Continuation below $1.61 significantly increase odds of $1.30 target being met.
See previous charts for reference.
NATURAL GAS FUTURES (NG1!) DailyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
Natural Gas Short PlanWith the loss of the 1 hour and 4 hour trends and natural gas still in a daily down trend a short at this point is a good risk/reward trade.
Entry will be on a clear lower high.
If there is not a clear lower high will wait until the lower low breaks.
Stop loss will be if the 15 minute enters a upward trend.
Hard stop will be $1.972
See previous charts for reference.
Weekly analysis on NG by ThinkinAntsOkToday we will focus on the Weekly chart on Natural Gas. Use this as a guide to develop your view of the chart:
Main items we can see:
a)Currently, the price is on a massive support zone
b)In 2012 and 2016 we observed massive reversal movements on the area between 1.90 and 1.60
c)If we are thinking about developing long setups, we have a good filter that has worked on previous situations
d)First, we need a clear breakout of the descending trendline / Second, we need a corrective movement / If that happens, the setup will be ready to trade.
e)This is a Swing view, which means that it requires patience to wait for the expected formation.
f) We will not develop short trades unless there are clear signs that the support zone is broken.
Natural Gas (up or down) Pick your poisonIn my own opinion, since Natural Gas first landed on the market in 2004, it has 1 all time low at 1.574, which is lower than 2004 and since then we have never tested this bottom again. I think with news of coronavirus, it is the perfect opportunity for this level to be tested and i think it will go much further down creating a new low for natural gas.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
Just an observation
By no means a pro, just an observation I found. Will NG repeat this pattern? If so, suggest bottom will be $1.30-1.50
Natural Gas Daily Cycle UpdateNatural gas had a countertrend rally inline with the size and timeframe expected. The severity of this pull back is yet to be determined and all price targets are still in play. There is the possibility bulls could show up, there is sufficient space for a higher low to be created and negate the bearish case. See the related ideas below for the charts this one continues to build on.
Will the Natgas Bulls Show Up?Natural gas is at a critical price this morning, if the bulls show up they have a chance to change the daily trend. If the price continues down bears remain in full control.
Natural Gas Countertrend Rally Position PlanningThis chart is position planning based on the Daily Cycles Target and Countertrend Rally charts published last week.
Patiently waiting for this rally to fail.
UNG puts take advantage of the expected decay.
Enter on confirmed bearish hourly trend change.
Exits:
extreme bullish reversal, exit if hourly down trend fails
bullish daily higher low, exit on hourly uptrend confirmed
bearish continuation, assess situation at each price target
Natural Gas Will Go upNatural Gas Will Go up
*Disclaimer** the content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
Natural Gas Countertrend Rally Expected Next WeekNatural gas has regular countertrend rallies.
The pink arrows are when the daily cycle turned bearish, a counter trend rally started soon after.
Countertrend rallys typical have gone up to the previous consolidation level, this would be approximately $1.80.
Trading sideways is also a possibility if the bulls can not get any momentum, similar to what was seen in mid to late January.
Natural Gas Futures Daily Cycle TargetsDaily cycle low is expected around April 10.
Price target is $1.60 to about $1.30
$1.60 price target - 2016 low providing support.
$1.50 price target - 25% from cycle high, 2 previous daily cycles were about 25% from cycle high to cycle low
$1.30 price target - this is more an area and very difficult to estimate. This would be based mainly on the long term trend line from the lows in 2012 and 2016. 2 other trend lines point to this area also, the trend line from 2019 from the bull run crash and the trend line since the late 2019 high.
Once the price is below $1.60 it could become very volatile.
NATGAS - price bounce from monthly supportThe US Natural Gas is now trading at a monthly low. From a technical perspective, price is now trading in the accumulation zone, MA's about to cross we expect the next push to the upside.
Price is growing with increasing volume, now retraced to the previous resistance now acting as support. Therefore we will long the commodity at the price of $1.89 per cubic feet.
The first target is the downwards trendline, at price $2.10. From there a retest of the low might happen. Our longer-term view on NATGAS is still bullish.
The past 5 weeks of Natural Gas Storage showed less than forecast, an increase in demand is signaled.
Traders if you follow this idea, we recommend entering with prudence and proper risk management according to your strategy.
Know your trading conditions for this asset. Spreads and lot sizes are high, do the research first.
