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Natural Gas: Over storage due to recency bias?So far we’ve covered Natural Gas twice, once in October 2022 , followed by another in May 2023 . As highlighted in both pieces we are generally longer-term bullish on natural gas but we do see some opportunities for a short-term tactical position now. As winter approaches, the harrowing memories of natural gas price movements during the previous winter seasons keep us vigilant. Some key points we find interesting now include the natural gas storage levels in the EU and US, unseasonal weather, price seasonality, and natural gas price action. Natural gas storage Natural Gas storage typically follows two clear seasonal trends: the winter withdrawal season and the summer injection season, with the summer months being April to October and winter from November to March. The chart below shows the storage level across time in the US. Current US Storage levels are close to the previous high in 2020. While in the EU, current gas storage levels are the highest they've been over the last five years. These high storage levels come off the back of a massive rally in natural gas prices in the 2021-2022 period. Which leads us to question, could this be attributed to recency bias? Have markets become over-prepared, with storage levels so high? Unseasonal weather One rationale for high storage levels is preparation for a harsh winter. The build-up of gas storage in the EU, particularly, was spurred by a warmer-than-expected start to the winter, resulting in less gas usage for heating. Forecasts also predict the 2023 winter in the EU & US to be warmer than average. A recent Bloomberg article on Natural Gas states: “Data generated by the Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 50% probability that most of Europe will experience well-above average temperatures between December and February. The Balkans, Italy and the Iberian peninsula have a 60% to 70% chance of exceeding median historical temperatures over the past three decades.” The EIA adds: “We estimate that U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 3,835 billion cubic (Bcf) feet at the end of October, 6% more than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the winter heating season (November–March) 21% above the five-year average with almost 2,000 Bcf in storage. Inventories are full because of high natural gas production and warmer-than-average winter weather, which reduces demand for space heating in the commercial and residential sectors.” High storage levels, coupled with lower-than-expected demand due to warm weather, could signal further weakness for Natural Gas… Price Seasonality Adding to this is the general price seasonality of Natural Gas. Over the past six years, the August to end-of-October period generally sees a gradual rise, followed by a decline from December to January. With this year’s price behavior aligning with past trends, we could very likely see a downturn in prices heading towards the end of the year and into January. Price Action On a longer-term time frame, the 3.610 level has repeatedly served as both support and resistance. On a shorter timeframe, natural gas has been trading in a defined broadening formation, likely indicating increased price volatility. To express our short-term bearish view, we can take a short position on the CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures at the current level of 3.089, setting the stop at the resistance above at 3.26 and take profit of 2.62. Each 0.001 point move in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures is for 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.eia.gov www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by inspirante
2
NATURAL GAS: Rebound expected near the 1D MA50.Natural Gas is on a six day bearish streak, turning neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.415, MACD = 0.105, ADX = 27.914). The pattern since April is a Bullish Megaphone and every pullback like this, has been a buy opportunity. The last one reversed just before it hit the 1D MA50, and as the 1D RSI is also near the S1 level, we turn bullish, targeting the R1 level (TP = 3.645). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by InvestingScope
2
Natural Gas - Keylevels - DailyNatural Gas remains in a downward trend, we are getting closer to winter, and demand will increase. Why doesn't the price increase more? Or...why doesn't the price increase according to your expectations? Simple.. The story of the war has calmed down and the FUD on prices has decreased and in addition to that, the main factor is that in several countries in EUROPE, the price of gas is capped, so that regardless of demand and supply, the price on the bill remains the same . My opinion is that if this winter we see Natural Gas between 4-6 dollars, it would be advisable to mark our profits and wait for next year.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by sfc95
NATURAL GAS Ready to buy at the bottom of the Channel Up?Natural Gas (NG1!) is trading within a logarithmic Channel Up pattern since the April 14 Low. The current bearish leg is one step before testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but the bottom is located just below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). That trend-line has priced the last three Higher Lows (September 26, September 06, August 24), so we are ready to buy there and target the 0.786 Fibonacci at 3.250, which has been a standard rebound target since July. The most optimal buy signal though since April 13 is when the 1D RSI enters its Support Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by TradingShot
Natural Gas - Elliott Wave Count UpdateNatural Gas - Elliott Wave Count this is an update to the previous view. Today, the market reached a new low after a few consecutive days of decline. The current reversal appears to be the start of wave C of 4. However, it is best not to rush into buying at this moment. We can anticipate another low after the completion of wave 4, which will be an excellent opportunity to buy for a significant gain. Please note that this information is solely for educational purposes, and it is essential to exercise caution when trading. CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS MCX:NATURALGAS1! FOREXCOM:NATURALGASCFD PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS CITYINDEX:NATURALGASCFD MOEX:NG1! NYMEX:NG1! VANTAGE:NG
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by Treda_pro
Nat Gas (UNG, NG) Retracement LongConsidering a trend continuation long in NG here. Per the attached charts (also using futures for zoning), we've had a decent pullback and are nearing intermediate-term (daily) demand. Using the futures chart, there are multiple 15-minute demand zones stacked 3.058-3.006. So, if we penetrate that zone (flirting with it now), look for micro timeframe reversal cues. Looking for a solid swing from this one, so we'll see what happens! Quick take, but want to get this posted as the trade is setting up as I type. Godspeed! Jon @ LionHart Trading
AMEX:UNGLong
by TraderJHart
Natural Gas Trend Continuation LONGNot a market we trade super often, but there has obviously been a LOT of opportunity in natural gas as of late. After a long period of accumulation, NG has finally broken out to the upside. We are looking for potential trend continuation longs. Ideally, we would like to enter this trade around the ~3.00 level (roughly coincides with Anchored VWAP + support/resistance “flip zone”), but it may be a bit before NG trades back to those prices (if it does). However, shorter-term/more aggressive entries exist via demand zones circa 3.2. We’ve formed new/”fresh” 60-minute supply @ 3.346-3.380, so that is an upside target. One should drill down via smaller timeframes (30/20/15-minute), though, to see what additional supply zones form between ~3.2 and 3.346 – it’s likely other sell levels will exist within expanded range candlesticks formed earlier this morning (EST). Smaller timeframe supply zones + any resistance levels should serve as profit targets for longs; if you enter a trade with multiple contracts, you can always hold a runner and look for new highs if upside momentum is strong. Finally, keep in mind seasonality. We are doing a more thorough analysis here, but NG tends to catch a tailwind during colder months (vs. summer)... We’ll keep an eye on this market and will provide updates accordingly. As is always the case with trading, our approach/thesis could change as price action unfolds, so use your discretion when evaluating this idea. Questions/comments welcome! Jon @ LionHart Trading
RUS:NG1!Long
by TraderJHart
NATURAL GAS Sell signal on overbought Channel Up despite the GolNatural Gas is trading inside a Channel Up since the April 14th Low. Despite forming a Golden Cross on the (1d) time frame last Thursday, we have a short term sell signal as the price reached the top of the Channel Up. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 2.950 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is highly overbought, the highest since May 4th 2022, making the sell signal stronger. Please like, follow and comment!!
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingBrokersView
2
Natural Gas - Elliott Wave CountNatural Gas - Elliott Wave Count Natural Gas - On the 1hr chart, NG displays a clear impulse Wave formation, indicating that the market is likely to continue the bull run to the 300 range after the minor correction(may drop to the 260 range for the short term) and then we can expect significant correction toward the 180 range. Please note that this information is for educational purposes only, and it is crucial to trade with caution. CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS FOREXCOM:NATURALGASCFD MCX:NATURALGAS1! PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS NYMEX:NG1! MOEX:NG1! VANTAGE:NG
MCX:NATURALGASV2023Long
by Treda_pro
7
Natural Gas - Elliott Wave CountNatural Gas - Elliott Wave Count Natural Gas - On the Daily charts, NG displays a clear impulse Wave formation, indicating that the market is likely to continue the bull run to the 300 range after the minor correction(may drop to the 250 range for the short term) and then we can expect significant correction toward the 162 range. Please note that this information is for educational purposes only, and it is crucial to trade with caution. CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS MCX:NATURALGAS1! PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS NYMEX:NG1! MOEX:NG1!
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by Treda_pro