#NatGas UpdateThis week, natural gas performed nearly perfectly. The wave count remains unchanged. Although I am still unsure about the ultimate shape of wave b, the scenario allows me to open cautious shorts. Of course, this is not advice. I look forward to the structure shaping the bottom and entering long positions into the winter.
Ng1!f
E-cutieAll year EQT, an unloved natural gas producer has been a swing trader's paradise. I've harvested so many gains from these E-cutie trees I thought I'd make a thread just for it and post trading updates.
The macro technical picture is clear. Years of being battered by shorts ended with capitulation in 2020, followed by a swift rebound. Fundamentals are tightening. According to analysts, $25 is fair price for $2.50 NG price. Goldman Sachs has a $23ish target. Price action is showing signs of bottoming. It's lining up but this is much more profitable short term swings.
Currently, price is building a base at previous long term support around $18. More downside is certainly a possibility given that NG prices look overvalued. But, EQT is in a channel and fundamentally undervalued. Investors might front run this sector as demand picks up in later in the year, in which EQT will likely be closer to $25.
s3.tradingview.com
Long EQT
+200 @ 18.10
NatGas: Take-off 🛫The price of NatGas has gained significantly again since Friday and could thereby move further away from the support at $2.48. Thus, we assume that it has already left the white wave (2) and is ready for high flights. For the white wave (3), it must rise significantly above the resistance at $2.75. After the completion of this wave, we expect a small correction and then another significant rise in the form of the white wave 5. Hence, we see a lot of movement on the upside at the moment. However, it should be noted that there is still an alternative scenario with a probability of 28%, which occurs if the price now falls contrary to our expectations. Then it would first have to fall below the support at $2.48.
#NatGas Update #OOTTThe chart is non-tradable (though I did enter some cheeky shorts). Natgas is tracing out something really intricate, as is its typical behaviour.
I suspect (and this is only specualation at this point) that the market is undergoing a compex [ w] [ x] [ y] correction as wave b where [ x] is a flat with an expanding diagonal in wave (C).
Then there has to be either another flat or a triangle in wave [ Y] to complete wave b and proceed to a simple impulse c.
That is extremely speculative at this moment, and hence not tradable from an ElliottWave perspective.
The key points are
- I believe the correction within the correction has not yet been completed.
- Once wave b is completed, there may be a nice quick short setup followed by medium-term long opportunity
This is not advise.
NG1! Is Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for NG1!.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 2.667.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 2.574 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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NATURAL GAS Buy lower, sell the break-outLast time we looked into Natural Gas (NG) we called for a buy entry (see chart below) right after the contact at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone:
The 2.550 target has been hit but the rise didn't stop there, breaking even above the former 2.690 Resistance and making a Higher High in the process. The price is right now above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but in terms of Risk/ Reward neither a favorable buy or a sell. We are willing to buy at 2.400 with a tight stop just below the Megaphone's Higher Lows trend-line and target 2.800 (below Resistance 1). If a 1D candle closes below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern, we will sell and target the 1.950 Support.
The 1D RSI is trading inside a Channel Up pattern. If broken, it will be a first confirmation of a bearish break-out signal.
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NG1! Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers ,
This is my opinion on the NG1! next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2.674
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Target - 2.568
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NG1! BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the NG1! pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 2.437 level.
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#NatGas UpdateIf I elaborate on my earlier scenario with unfinished correction, Natgas might perform a spectacular drop over the next few days before resuming the uptrend.
Before this, I expected a triangle, then a flat with an ending diagonal and now a classic expanded flat in wave b. Since wave a was a contracting diagonal, there is an 80% chance that wave c is a quick impulse down and a 20% chance of expanding diagonal.
NatGas Update Natural gas appears to be nearing the end of its correction before continuing its ascent into the end of the summer/earluy autumn.
Since wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3 because the third wave cannot be the shortest.
Wave 4 can be done as an expanded flat (notice the rule with variation with wave 2). Also, we can expect a running triangle.
The bigger picture remains unchanged from the prior update.
NG1! BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
Hello,Friends!
We are going long on the NG1! with the target of 2.631 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band.However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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NatGas: Come on! 👏NatGas needs to show a bit more motivation to complete wave 3 in green, as we expect the corresponding top near the upper end of the white zone between $1.88 and $3.43. After the price has also dealt with the short counter movement of wave 4 in green, it should finish the green five part upwards movement, rising from the white zone toward the top of wave iv in pink. As soon as this is placed, we reckon with a significant downwards movement, which should lead to the low of wave 2 in green before the ascent can start anew. However, there is a 40% chance that NatGas could leave the white zone on the lower side prematurely, thus developing wave alt.2 in green earlier already.