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Ng1!f

Natural Gas is in Season 8/3/2020Natural Gas at the daily view. Natural gas spiked up today which shouldn't be a surprise. It's about time if I may add. Natural gas had an inverse head and shoulders pattern in the last 3 months and it would skyrocket above $1.89. And that's what happened. Natural gas was in a volatility box for 3 months. It was building up energy for a breakout. That breakout is seasonal. Where did this demand come from? Air conditioning and energy usage. How so? Hot summers demand more air conditioning. A/C requires more energy usage. The increased energy usage causes more demand in gas. We are at the hottest part of the summer now. Gas is in season. Despite popular myth, vehicle usage makes up less than 1% of natural gas usage. It's buildings, factories, and homes that have the most usage. Usually, this is the summer spike at the monthly view. It tends to pullback during September then ramp up again in October to January. It's very obvious why gas would be used more in those months. This is why I suggest traders to widen their horizons. Traders who pay attention to equity only just missed out on a potential 30-60% profit today with natural gas. There should be one more day of continuation. However, the high probability, high rewards bounce was back at $1.70 or below. Personally I would not short natural gas unless you know the seasonality like the back of your hand. That takes months to get it to a science. In addition, we are at near historic lows. There is a lot more upside potential in natural gas at this level than the downside. Why? I don't see natural gas getting replaced anytime soon. I don't see SBSP or fusion technology being developed anytime soon. The only alternative that I see for natural gas with the same or greater output is nuclear energy. Side note, nuclear power plants came a very long way in safety and containment over the last 30 years. I'm actually impressed and it broke down my own assumptions. That's from personal experience. Here is a Ted Talk video to fully express what I mean. www.ted.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Itsallsotiresome
Natural Gas - Winter ContractsWinter contracts for Natural Gas are already trading near the pivotal $3.00 level. If Winter this year turns out to be average prices will likely sell off towards $2.50 (the 200 Day EMA). However, if production continues to fall and Winter is cold enough, prices can break above $3.00 and complete the parabolic move that is forming. If the latter happens, I see prices for December(Z) contracts topping out around $3.10 - $3.30 February(F) I see topping out around $3.40 - $3.60 I'm looking for a buying opportunity on the December contract and praying for a cold November to sell it in.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ryan-snk
Gas in a Box 7/31/2020Natural gas at the 4 hour view. It turns out that natural gas has been in a downward channel since 2018. Furthermore, in the last 3 months, gas has been in a trading box. You know what this means? Gas has become predictable. It may look choppy at first, but it's trading in a general range between 1.58 to 1.93. There were spikes above and below that range. However, those spikes do not last long at all. Furthermore, it seems the upward and downward movements last in a weekly cycle. Since equities seems to be going no where, I think I found my favorite commodity to trade. Personally, I would mainly long gas at the bottom. Why? We are at historic lows for natural gas. Gas is also seasonal. Usage has increased due to the need for more air conditioning in the summer heat. I would still use UGAZF since the liquidity is still there. I would not short gas unless seasonality, lower usage, and a cyclical correction are all on your side. Shorting takes a lot more skill than longing. Once we start recovering economically, natural gas may skyrocket due to increased usage. How much usage would increase if California and New York actually open for business?
NYMEX:NG1!
by Itsallsotiresome
Natural Gas August TargetsBulls are still hanging on with a chance of changing the weekly trend. Price does look exhausted and a seasonal cycle low in August is very possible. Green line is based on brief consolidation and continuation. Price target is $2.15 Orange candles is the June price action. Red is a steady grind lower over the next 3-4 weeks. Both the orange and red have price target of $1.50 down to $1.30 as discussed back in June. Would be possible that price doesn't get this low before September expires and with current spread may never.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Natural_Gas_Trader
Natgas on the Range by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the chart: a) The price is on a weekly support zone and since MARCH 2020 has been ranging between 2USD and 1.50USD b) If we analyze the range we can see that the price is moving towards the higher level of it, after the breakout of the zig-zag pattern (corrective structure) c) The breakout of the range will give us reliable information about what to expect. Currently, we are in a historical reversion zone d) If a breakout happens (bullish), we will wait for a daily corrective structure, and we will take the beginning of a new weekly motive wave IF all the filers happen. e) FILTERS: Breakout of the range + 3 weeks correction
NYMEX:NG1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Natural Gas - Winter 2020-21 UpdateOn June 3rd I posted my strategy for trading Natural Gas this coming Winter (linked below). As prices slowly drift lower, it looks like traders are beginning to accumulate long positions. I've opened a long position on the December(Z) E-mini contract and might add 1 or 2 more over the next couple months with the sell target up around $3.30ish. Will see how it plays out. I chose the December contract because the volume on the E-mini is extremely thin on the January and February contracts. +1 @ $2.76
NYMEX:NGZ2020Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas - Bought the DipNatural Gas prices got hammered this past week. There's too much supply and not enough demand however, prices are near the bottom of the trading range and Summer heat should give prices a boost soon. It's also worth mentioning that the Dollar DXY is trending lower and which is bullish for all commodities. Prices are breaking out of a downtrend so I've opened a long position on the September(U) contract. It's nearing the end of the month and the August(Q) contract will expire soon. +1 @ $1.725 ($QGU20)
NYMEX:NGU2020Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas Daily Cycle UpdateJune 26 is well confirmed as the daily cycle low. The bulls were strong early in the cycle but now appears to have been a strong counter trend rallied fueled by weather changing short term fundamentals. Bulls do still have a chance but with the weak bounce that failed this past week price action favors the bears. Depending on the bear strength price targets would be $1.50 or $1.30, there is a chance for substantially lower due to current market conditions If fundamentals don't change much from now $1.50 will offer substantial support.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Natural_Gas_Trader
Natural Gas - Buy the HeatHot weather will likely boost Natural Gas prices in the near term so I opened a long position after price broke above $1.80 again. $QG - E-mini Natural Gas Futures +1 @ $1.815 Sell Limit -1 @ $1.94 Additionally, the MACD is showing bullish momentum on the 4hr chart and prices are being supported by the 50 and 200 EMA. If price clears $1.83 I see the momentum taking it up to $1.94 at the very least and $2.04 at the most. Should prices fall I might buy more and average down my cost basis since I don't think prices will stay down for very long under these conditions. weather.com
NYMEX_MINI:QG1!Long
by ryan-snk
Natural Gas Daily Cycle Bullish ScenarioThis bullish scenario is only for reference, I do not consider it the most likely outcome. For the bulls to turn this into a recovery likely need to see only brief consolidation before continuation. As much as this is a case for the bulls it is a cautionary message for the bears. Trade with a open mind and remain protected at all time if the bulls got momentum it may happen quickly once shorts start covering and fomo from those left behind sets in.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Natural_Gas_Trader