NGAS:Bearish Bat PatternThe potential bearish Bat pattern is completing at 2.83 and the 1.618EXT of AB is at 2.85.
Meanwhile the previous strcuture also works at this zone.
So it is good to sell short at 2.80-2.85 levels when price atcion is good at the PRZ.
SL:above 2.88
TP1:2.72
TP2:2.63 and further more
NGAS
Natural Gas Short: Only for 1 dayI will be sorting Natural Gas for only 1 day (12/14/2016) I don't think Natural Gas has a clear direction right now, but I do think it is still in limbo, just at a lower level than expected. Thus I do forecast a drop back from the 10DMA levels of 2.737 to erase today's (11/14/2016) gains, but no movement lower, at least not this week.
NGAS:Buy at 2618 PatternThe market has borken through the point of last drop and the double bottom has formed.
Meanwhile the market is pulling back the neck line which is also the 0.618 retracement of the previous rise.
So it is good to buy at 2.60-2.63 levels when bullish candles appear.
SL:below 2.55
TP1:2.73
TP2:2.78 and further more
NGAS:A Good Opportunity to SellThe NGAS has pulled back the 0.618 retracement of the previous decline and the market will be likely to continue the down trend.
Meanwhile a pinbar appeared after the market hit the 0.618.
So it is good to sell short at 3.06-3.08 levels.
SL:above 3.20
Target:2.66 and further more
NGAS in LimboAfter the contract rollover, NGAS lost it's downwards momentum. No special news were published during the intentories and thus I expect NGAS to just "hang out" between the BB (1H) until the BB closes on 4H and D. From there I expect opportunities to short below the current HCL. Expect this sideways state for at least 3-4 more days and then go hunting.
UPDATE: NGAS ShortWARNING: Tomorrow is a massively important day for short holders. Firstly it is important to note that there is very big spread between December ($3.066) and current contracts. Furthermore, tomorrow invontory data is released. If you see December contracts gapping down tomorrow that is a very bearish sign and could indicate that there is a short opportunity regarding the data. If we don't see a spread close, then we should all be extremely careful and exit immediately if data is positive as it will mean that NGAS will ride back to first resistance and trend higher for the days to come. At which point a short could be a possible trade to ride it back down.
NGAS SHORTNatgas currently looks very bearish on the chart. Yet, the price needs to confirm a break of the current upward trend by breaking the diagonal support with relatively high volume and snappy movement. Based on data epectations we should see NGAS reach its first support 2.88 during next week and if further favourable (the data) 2.645. If you don't currently have an open short NGAS position I would highly reccomend you wait for the break of the support and then enter.
Every rebound is a chance to build a positionIn the previous days a pattern has been observed where in the beginning of the day, NG tend upwards but around 10-11 a.m (BST) when volume starts picking up there is a reversal and the downside begins for the day. Thus, I think that every move before this time is just an opportunity to build a position. For those unable to trade futures - even more since DGAZ opened pre-market with an unsymmetrical drop to its increase in the previous days thus making it relatively cheaper to options with more promising returns.
Natural Gas may be setting up for a longer term correctionWeekly ngas looks like it has transitioned into an uptrend. Its not clear if this is a major change in trend or a correction. As of now, the weekly chart from the Feb 16 low looks more like an impulse wave instead of a corrective wave. However, I'm still going to look at points of resistance as if its corrective and a retrace of the 2014-02-24 high to 2016-02-29 low. I've only started looking at ngas again recently and I believe the week of 2016-08-08 would have been ideal entry with:
ADX above 20 and a convergence of +/-DMI as price pulled back
TSI and RSI pulled back before weekly price continued up
Now, the question is if weekly price will continue up or begin to hit resistance. The first area I'm watching is 3.460 so a pullback now could be a place to enter a short term long position.
Another interesting aspect of the weekly chart is that the line (orange) put in by the -DMI of the Feb 16 low has been hit once and is now set to be broken by both the +DMI and the ADX. If this happens and holds, my interpretation will be that a major trend shift is in play and will need to set plan accordingly.
Daily chart looks strong but may be pulling back. Things I'll be watching for this week is for +/-DMI to converge along with a pullback of price into the averages and a pullback of TSI and RSI into 50-60 range.
8H/4H charts watching to see if there is a repeat pattern of a pullback including price and indicators. If this pattern occurs, may be the place to buy dec NG call.
1H looks like pullback has begun and may carry through to 8H/4H charts.