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Japan 225

VDJP Weekly - Starting to accumulate againFollowing the successful break of the bull flag and the quick follow through, there is no surprise that we are seeing a pullback on this ETF. I am starting to average back in after slowly taking profits from 27.50 (prior high) and above. There is no sign of a bottom here, but I am happy with the current price and will buy more if we move lower. The long term weekly picture is still positive as long as we stay above 24.50. I would still like to see 31/32 as a full target here.
LSE:VDJPLong
by gillyblore
Nikkei's Weekly rising expanding wedge and a probable outcomeHere I'm showing Nikkei's Weekly rising expanding wedge with a throw over top. As such, the decline this year could be a partial decline followed by a quick rise. Throw over could be due to the unprecedented balance sheet expansion of combined BOJ, Fed and ECB. European DAX also shows a throw over top in its megaphone (broadening wedge) pattern. In another words, markets globally have responded to the extreme policy measures and have created throw over chart patterns. And thus, there may not be a deep decline beyond 2020 lows in this chart pattern according to my thinking. If this works out along with possible market cycle dates and some luck (!), October can show SnP 500 near 2,550 with the trailing PE near 18 this year. Which will obviously be very cheap in compare to the current trailing PE of near 30 for the price hovering around 4,200 right now. This chart pattern shows there may not be another higher high than the 4,238 printed for the SnP this year. Also to add, we might be facing a very scary straight line decline in SnP 500 in September and October to the tune of -38% which will be a little greater than the straight line big decline in 2020. That means more volatility this year than the previous year. In the end it will present a very nice opportunity to grab cheap assets at deep discounts all around us. Good luck and may God speed!
TVC:NI225
by tfinavia
Stocks - Nikkei on Last LegsIdea for Nikkei: I'm waiting for Asia markets to drag down US markets, but why not just short Asia itself first? - The sugar rush of QE is over, and Japan is rolling over. Expecting its bear market since Feb to resolve in a capitulation at least down to a monthly support. - Nikkei under 100D and 9M and at critical support. (50W) - Expect to quickly capitulate to 24k~ support levels when this floor breaks. This is not US markets, which rises based solely on gamma, and the slowing global economy is weighing down on it. IMO, any rips here should be sold. 50W: 20M: GLHF - DPT
TVC:NI225Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
6
Death cross is here.After a major bull run, we can see a death cross forming. What is a death cross? The death cross is a chart pattern that indicates the transition from a bull market to a bear market. This technical indicator occurs when a security’s short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses from above to below a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day). The indicator gets its name from the alleged strength of the pattern as a bearish indication. In short, traders who believe in the pattern’s reliability say that a security is “dead” once this bearish moving average crossover occurs. Three Phases of Forming the Death Cross: There are three primary phases in the formation of the cross of death pattern. The first phase involves the existing uptrend of a security, when it begins to reach its peak as buying momentum tapers off. Then the price begins to fall as sellers gain the upper hand in the market. The second phase is the decline in the security’s price to a point where the actual death cross occurs, with the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day moving average. This downside shift of the 50-day average signals a new, bearish long-term trend in the market. The final phase occurs with the continuation of the downward movement in the market. The new downtrend needs to be sustained in order for a genuine death cross to be deemed to have occurred. If the period of downward momentum is merely short-lived, and the stock turns back to the upside, then the cross of death is considered a false signal.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by georgio777
money rotations (theory)let's talk about money rotation for a minute. someone brought up this nikkei chart to me last night, and told me it is close to seeing a strong reversal, after taking a deeper look into it, i will have to strongly agree with their statement. --- notice how the es chart has been going up for the last 189 days, while nikkei has been slumping for this same duration of time. the indicator i use on all my trades is flashing a weekly buy signal right now for the first time since the covid crash on nikkei - see below the reaction it saw after this buy signal was triggered the last time around. Hang Seng (Honk Kong Index) has the same weekly buy indicator, and it's also sitting at the 0.618 wave (2) target. the theory is, since market maker doesn't want the market to just crash randomly - instead what they're going to do is rotate money into the next profitable area (slowly) - which in turn will create prolonged sideways chop \ a weak downward trend similar to what nikkei has been seeing over the last 6 months or so. not sure how long this is going to last, but i favor this scenario over a market crash any day - for the sake of the people, and for the sake of selling iron condors on spx 3 times a week 💸 curious to see how this will play out, but that's the primary scenario as of right now. if we happen to see a sharp correction as mentioned in my previous post, then i suppose we can invalidate the theory stated here. also, a flat correction would greatly benefit the longer term bullish trend, as we would be able to build a very strong base up here, before the last push to 5000~6000 in the years ahead. ps. if you wanted to try and catch some gains from the nikkei play, you could try picking up some december\january calls on $EWJ - they've some very low iv right now, and it could work out very nicely as a hedge against our flat corrective phase.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
4
Stocks - What Next?Idea for indices: - As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts). - China continuing to lead down. - Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere. - ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index performance is a critical tell for deflationary forces vs. QE. - Watch China Tech ETFs to lead US indices down. Managers will need to also liquidate US positions as their portfolio % exposure becomes overweight. I've been enjoying watching Nikkei lately - it just broke a critical support and 200 DMA (6m low), officially a bear market if it consolidates losses. However, it is still holding 50 WMA and 200 DMA in real performance... waiting for US markets for confirmation. Bearish bias here, turning point is due. Aug 2 debt limit will be in focus. Early August is my trigger for reversal confirmation. If it holds, we can back off and try again later, but rugpull is definitely due. Already short US indices (long vol). Nikkei real performance (relative to currency): Here is what I think will happen to Nikkei next: GLHF - DPT
TVC:NI225Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei (NKD) Rally Likely to FailElliott Wave structure of Nikkei (NKD) shows incomplete sequence from February 16, 2021 high as well as from June 15, 2021 high suggesting further downside is likely. From June 15 peak, the Index shows a 5 swing sequence which is an incomplete sequence that needs further downside. The decline from June 15 is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from June 15, wave W ended at 27510 and rally in wave X ended at 28860. Internal subdivision of wave X unfolded as an Expanded Flat where wave ((a)) ended at 27875, wave ((b)) ended at 27415, and wave ((c)) ended at 28860. The Index has resumed lower in wave Y as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave X, wave (i) ended at 28495, and rally in wave (ii) ended at 28700. The Index resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 27850 and bounce in wave (iv) ended at 28200. Final leg lower wave (v) ended at 27080 which should complete wave ((a)) in higher degree. Bounce in wave ((b)) is in progress to correct cycle from July 13 peak before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as July 13 pivot high at 28854 stays intact in the first degree, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1