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Japan 225

Stocks - Nikkei on Last LegsIdea for Nikkei: I'm waiting for Asia markets to drag down US markets, but why not just short Asia itself first? - The sugar rush of QE is over, and Japan is rolling over. Expecting its bear market since Feb to resolve in a capitulation at least down to a monthly support. - Nikkei under 100D and 9M and at critical support. (50W) - Expect to quickly capitulate to 24k~ support levels when this floor breaks. This is not US markets, which rises based solely on gamma, and the slowing global economy is weighing down on it. IMO, any rips here should be sold. 50W: 20M: GLHF - DPT
TVC:NI225Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
6
Death cross is here.After a major bull run, we can see a death cross forming. What is a death cross? The death cross is a chart pattern that indicates the transition from a bull market to a bear market. This technical indicator occurs when a security’s short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses from above to below a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day). The indicator gets its name from the alleged strength of the pattern as a bearish indication. In short, traders who believe in the pattern’s reliability say that a security is “dead” once this bearish moving average crossover occurs. Three Phases of Forming the Death Cross: There are three primary phases in the formation of the cross of death pattern. The first phase involves the existing uptrend of a security, when it begins to reach its peak as buying momentum tapers off. Then the price begins to fall as sellers gain the upper hand in the market. The second phase is the decline in the security’s price to a point where the actual death cross occurs, with the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day moving average. This downside shift of the 50-day average signals a new, bearish long-term trend in the market. The final phase occurs with the continuation of the downward movement in the market. The new downtrend needs to be sustained in order for a genuine death cross to be deemed to have occurred. If the period of downward momentum is merely short-lived, and the stock turns back to the upside, then the cross of death is considered a false signal.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by georgio777
money rotations (theory)let's talk about money rotation for a minute. someone brought up this nikkei chart to me last night, and told me it is close to seeing a strong reversal, after taking a deeper look into it, i will have to strongly agree with their statement. --- notice how the es chart has been going up for the last 189 days, while nikkei has been slumping for this same duration of time. the indicator i use on all my trades is flashing a weekly buy signal right now for the first time since the covid crash on nikkei - see below the reaction it saw after this buy signal was triggered the last time around. Hang Seng (Honk Kong Index) has the same weekly buy indicator, and it's also sitting at the 0.618 wave (2) target. the theory is, since market maker doesn't want the market to just crash randomly - instead what they're going to do is rotate money into the next profitable area (slowly) - which in turn will create prolonged sideways chop \ a weak downward trend similar to what nikkei has been seeing over the last 6 months or so. not sure how long this is going to last, but i favor this scenario over a market crash any day - for the sake of the people, and for the sake of selling iron condors on spx 3 times a week 💸 curious to see how this will play out, but that's the primary scenario as of right now. if we happen to see a sharp correction as mentioned in my previous post, then i suppose we can invalidate the theory stated here. also, a flat correction would greatly benefit the longer term bullish trend, as we would be able to build a very strong base up here, before the last push to 5000~6000 in the years ahead. ps. if you wanted to try and catch some gains from the nikkei play, you could try picking up some december\january calls on $EWJ - they've some very low iv right now, and it could work out very nicely as a hedge against our flat corrective phase.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
4
Stocks - What Next?Idea for indices: - As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts). - China continuing to lead down. - Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere. - ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index performance is a critical tell for deflationary forces vs. QE. - Watch China Tech ETFs to lead US indices down. Managers will need to also liquidate US positions as their portfolio % exposure becomes overweight. I've been enjoying watching Nikkei lately - it just broke a critical support and 200 DMA (6m low), officially a bear market if it consolidates losses. However, it is still holding 50 WMA and 200 DMA in real performance... waiting for US markets for confirmation. Bearish bias here, turning point is due. Aug 2 debt limit will be in focus. Early August is my trigger for reversal confirmation. If it holds, we can back off and try again later, but rugpull is definitely due. Already short US indices (long vol). Nikkei real performance (relative to currency): Here is what I think will happen to Nikkei next: GLHF - DPT
TVC:NI225Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei (NKD) Rally Likely to FailElliott Wave structure of Nikkei (NKD) shows incomplete sequence from February 16, 2021 high as well as from June 15, 2021 high suggesting further downside is likely. From June 15 peak, the Index shows a 5 swing sequence which is an incomplete sequence that needs further downside. The decline from June 15 is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from June 15, wave W ended at 27510 and rally in wave X ended at 28860. Internal subdivision of wave X unfolded as an Expanded Flat where wave ((a)) ended at 27875, wave ((b)) ended at 27415, and wave ((c)) ended at 28860. The Index has resumed lower in wave Y as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave X, wave (i) ended at 28495, and rally in wave (ii) ended at 28700. The Index resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 27850 and bounce in wave (iv) ended at 28200. Final leg lower wave (v) ended at 27080 which should complete wave ((a)) in higher degree. Bounce in wave ((b)) is in progress to correct cycle from July 13 peak before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as July 13 pivot high at 28854 stays intact in the first degree, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
FX Morning Meeting & Top Trade Ideas for July 08🌐 MORNING MEETING - MARKET PREVIEW - JULY 08 🔴 USD INDEX The US dollar retreated from highs after the FOMC minutes release with the UST 2y-10y curve continuing its bull flattening. The falling yields suggest that the US dollar could see some selling pressure, at least against low-yielding currencies. However, with risk aversion present in the markets ahead of the weekend, downsides in the USD may be limited. USD bulls could continue to flex their muscles against risk currencies. Today's US Unemployment Claims are expected slightly lower than in the previous month (345k vs 364k expected). 🔴 GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS Morning traders, global markets entered a broad risk-off mode after the FOMC minutes showed that the Fed is not as hawkish as previously expected. Asian markets closed lower (Hang Seng is down 2.90%), and European markets followed their Asian peers with losses that exceed 1%. US futures are also down ahead of the NY open. 🔴 CURRENCY STRENGTH Surprise surprise, the risk-off scissors are here! JPY and CHF are the strongest, while AUD, NZD and CAD are racing who will print the biggest loss. 🔴 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Early in the morning London time, RBA's Lowe held a webinar speech about monetary policy, but didn't deliver anything the markets don't already know. The remaining calendar is light with key reports being the US unemployment claims and crude oil inventories. Inventories have fallen more than anticipated for six previous periods, which is helpful to have on mind. 🔴 TOP TRADE IDEAS FOR JULY 08 - Long USD against high-yielders - While falling UST yields could pose a bearish risk for USD, risk-off may still support the currency. - Long low-yielders - If technicals allow
TVC:DXY
by MujkanovicFX