Get started

Japan 225

Yen Appreciates for Third DayDespite a drop in the Nikkei 225, Japan’s stock index, the Japanese Yen has seen 3 straight days of gains now against the US Dollar. In contrast, the Nikkei dropped back below 18,000 points, a one week low. Traditionally a very stable currency pair due to both currencies being strong safe havens, USD/JPY was steadily rising in the months leading up to March. However just like every other market, it was not safe from the extreme volatility brought on by the global coronavirus outbreak in March. After dropping all the way below 103, the Dollar eventually rebounded against the Yen to trade at ¥111 to the Dollar, influenced by the rise in strength of the greenback following a pullout from investors from assets back to liquid cash in order to minimise risk. It is currently trading at ¥107 against the greenback. Investors are also looking towards the Yen once again as a safe haven, as it remains a strong currency in times of economic uncertainty, and this is certainly one of them. However, the Yen’s current status may be short-lived, amid growing sentiment that Tokyo may soon come under lockdown due to the sharp increase in coronavirus cases in the city. This new rise comes shortly after the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games were announced to be postponed until Summer 2021, leading some to question whether or not the Japanese government had been suppressing figures in order to keep the Olympics going ahead. The governor of Tokyo has urged citizens to avoid karaoke- the popular Japanese pastime- in order to maintain social distancing, despite warnings from senior health officials to put the city under lockdown before it is too late. Japan’s economy minister has warned that a lockdown of the country’s biggest cities would have disastrous effects on the Japanese economy. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also stated that a state of emergency is not yet needed, but that Japan could enter a situation like Europe very soon. The Dollar also weakened once again following White House officials projecting that around 100,000 to 240,000 more deaths would occur in the United States due to the coronavirus. US President Donald Trump also gave warnings that the coronavirus would continue to worsen, backtracking on his statements from the previous week that he had expected to see the States reopen by Easter. However, he is still resisting calls to issue a nationwide warning to tell Americans to stay home. The Trump Administration’s lack of action has led to State governors to take action of their own. California and New York are continuing to be under lockdown, and an increasing number of states are also extending or adding their own stay at home orders.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
The Mother of All Bubbles - Bitcoin vs StocksHe everyone, Been a long time since I posted a chart/comparison. All major stocks are represented here and compared with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in its own merits an index for the whole cryptocurrency market, and every crypto-trader/enthusiast knows that when Bitcoin moves up or down, the whole market usually moves with it. The whole economy, including the crypto-economy, had been going up since 2008, and the rise was steeper and higher than anything seen before. Everything built on leveraged trading and loans. The clock was ticking on the bomb, but it also required a button to be pushed to initiate the detonation sequence... enter COVID-19. A quarter of the world population is in lockdown right now. This essentially means only the work which is essential, is being carried out. Forget about ambitions or new ideas to be brought to life, this is now about survival. As per Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the basic need of health and security is being threatened. The ones of the top do not take priority at this time. And this need is going to be under threat for months, and may be challenged in waves. (www.thoughtco.com) There is no demand and will be no demand for anything else for months now. I don't need to point out that the supply of products is usually done prior to the demand in anticipation, hence there are stocks load of products which may go past their expiry date and may not be of use. That will lead to other waste of resources. Economy is going to face the biggest challenge yet, and will rival the great depression of the 1920s. Stay safe and make decisions which you can stand by and do not regret later. All the best!
BNC:BLXShort
by UnknownUnicorn995432
8
Nikkei 225 the First to Recover, Gold Facing Historical Shortage The Nikkei 225, or Japanese Stock Index had an 8% gain for the day, following on from its 7% gain from the previous day. Less than a week ago the Nikkei had just hit lows not seen since 2017, falling below 20,000 points. However in just 2 days it has made back its losses and is now rapidly on the rebound back to the 20,000 mark. As well as this, other Asian stocks are on the recovery as well, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Korean KOSPI, and Shanghai Composite all on the upside. In Europe, the UK FTSE 100 is following suit, with a 2.5% increase for the day. Following on from this, it is reasonable to expect the US stock indices to produce a similar pattern in the upcoming days. US stocks have already started to recover, with the Dow Jones posting its best single day session since 1933, rising 11.4%. This market optimism comes after the US Senate finally agreed on passing the $2 trillion coronavirus bill. The bill, which had been in dispute over the last 2 days due to being blocked by the Democrats, has now been settled with a deal being reached, although the final vote still needs to be made. Although details still need to be agreed upon as well, the gist of the bill is that $250 billion is to go towards directly paying individuals and families, $350 billion on small business loans, and $500 for other companies, amongst others. This is expected to be the largest ever economic stimulus package ever passed. The 2020 Tokyo Olympics have also been officially postponed, after several weeks of discussions. While Japan was originally adamant about the Olympics going ahead despite the alarming growth of the coronavirus pandemic, today they were finally forced to postpone the games until 2021. Japan was initially extremely reluctant to make this move, as it would’ve been the first time in the 124 year history of the modern games that they had to be postponed. Olympic officials said that the games would be postponed to a date before Summer 2021, but no later than that, and that the flame would continue to stay in Japan for the time being. In other news, gold is facing a historic short squeeze, as New York is currently under lockdown. The movement of gold has been severely impeded by the coronavirus, as metal refineries have been forced to close, and all travel has been severely restricted. Normally, in the case of such a shortage in New York, suppliers would ship from overseas locations. But the travel restrictions mean that there is the possibility that the supplies could become trapped, making banks and traders reluctant to do so. Even in other times of economic hardship such as war, gold refineries have not had to close. The price of gold, which had been on the recovery as well this week, has now fallen again, down 1.8% back towards the $1,600 mark after looking like it would reach $1,650. This move could also be attributed to investors discarding the safe haven asset after the announcement of the $2 trillion stimulus package, as risk appetite improved.
INDEX:NKY
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Equity Markets showing Reversal on the 4 Hour?First off is the Nikkei 225. We had a break out earlier today which also confirmed a head and shoulders bottoming pattern. The lower high and lower lows began to exhaust. We are now awaiting for our first higher low swing here to confirm this uptrend. Second is the German Dax. We had our breakout, and are now approaching the major 10,000 level. From here, would like to see 10,000 tested before a pullback and then a breakout creating a head and shoulders pattern and giving us a higher low to confirm an uptrend. The Russell 2000 is close to the Dax set up. We are watching for this breakout. Similar to the Dax in a way that we would like to see a move higher before a pullback and then a head and shoulders confirmation breakout. The Russell may also be a leading indicator on what we will see with the larger US equities.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by Uncharted-FX
March 15 Market Update | Technicals, Fundamentals, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 200 weekly moving average; Friday’s low; trend line projected from 2009 and 2011 lows; the 2018 low, as well as 2015 and 2016 distribution area; 2720 balance area for retracement; cycle analysis. Technical: Broke out of a week long balance Thursday (i.e., cluster that included a 100.00% projection, 161.80% and 127.20% extension). Friday’s rally failed to take value with it and so now Friday value is overlapping Thursday’s value. /NQ cleared out some poor structure below 8070 to 7550 (i.e., untested POCs or the levels at which the most amount of volume was traded) created by the market getting too long, beneath /ES February high. Sunday’s open and Monday trading to help us determine if there is a break out of the two day balance area, accepting Friday’s spike and moving lower towards new targets. If we continue the trend, immediate downside /ES targets include 2300, 2140 and 1900. Cycle low at 3/20. Cycle high 3/16-3/17 and 3/24-4/3. Index Analysis: $SPX: TVC:SPX $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA $UKX: TVC:UKX $NI225: TVC:NI225 Futures Analysis: /GC: /CL: /NG: /ZB: Fundamental: ‘Help! I’ve Fallen, And I Can’t Get Up!’: According to ARK Investment Management, prior to COVID-19 entering the U.S., consumer confidence, spending and business were improving. "The US Purchasing Managers Index had plummeted to a four year low. Consumers have been responding to record low unemployment rates and accelerating wage gains while businesses have been unsettled by various #trade conflicts and flattening to inverted yield curves." Ark suggests that inverted yield curves (which usually precede recessions) were a commonplace during periods of disruptive innovation, leading up to the 1920s. That said, what does all this information mean for a subsequent recovery? Well, Ark suggests that lags in inventory and capital spending are worrisome; "While real GDP could be hit through mid-year by cancelled flights and conferences and other business disruptions causing another round of inventory and capital spending cuts, the rubber band associated with a global rebound has been stretching for more than a year now." In other words, Ark thinks we may experience a V-shaped recovery. (bit.ly) U.S. Expansion: “Economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate rate over the past several weeks, according to the majority of Federal Reserve Districts” (bit.ly). Adding -- "Outlooks for the near-term were mostly for modest growth with the coronavirus and the upcoming presidential election cited as potential risks." BlackRock came out with some statements: "We don't see this as an expansion-ending event — provided that preemptive and coordinated policy response is delivered” (bit.ly). Also, the OECD lowered it’s GDP growth projections, viewable at (bit.ly), alongside Goldman Sachs’ Q2-Q4 earnings recession projection (bit.ly). View the article at (bloom.bg). Noting -- inflation was uptrending prior to the virus debacle, but shortly after 10-year expectations took a massive poo-poo (bit.ly). Inflation stimulates production; more green = more buying = more demand = more production. ‘99 Problems’ And Liquidity Is One: Investors have observed disruptions in the U.S. Treasury market as shown by wide spreads and difficult transaction completion. In a Reuters article syndicated by NYT, "Market participants attributed some of the liquidity gaps to banks and computer-driven trading programs paring back their trading or limiting the size of their trades due to the volatility in markets” (nyti.ms). If you want to see how markets traded around the numerous trade halts this week, visit bit.ly Additionally, the NYSE put out a bulletin basically saying they will stay open and that electronic trading capabilities are sufficient in case any closures are necessary (bit.ly). Adding, the FRA/OIS spread (a money-market benchmark that measures differences between forward-rate agreements and index swaps) -- a key gauge of banking risks -- rose alongside the widening of dollar swap spreads; “The cost to protect against default on investment-grade credit jumped to the highest in more than a year” (yhoo.it). Not indicative of impending doom, but interesting nonetheless. Talk Of Credit Crisis: According to Bloomberg, the fear that a coronavirus-panic and slowdown may cause a credit crisis was ignited this week after financial conditions tightened despite the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut (bloom.bg). Now, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 100% chance that rates will be cut at the next Fed meeting (bit.ly). Adding, Bloomberg suggests that signs of stress in the credit market are apparent through multiple channels; credit card and loan delinquencies are appearing on the consumer lending front, while across the world, “Non-bank companies have drastically upped their leverage since the last crisis, as treasurers have taken advantage of historically low interest rates” (bloom.bg). The same article alleges that this increase in debt and leverage is a problem, even in a low rate environment, due to the “profitability drought that is making it harder for companies to service debts.” Fear Prevails: Some speculation around last week’s sell-off after the emergency rate cut was fed-induced fear -- “A quick response might exacerbate the market sell-off because it could suggest panic on the part of policymakers. It may also be ineffective because monetary policy moves such as rate cuts typically take a while to feed through to the broader economy,” according to Reuters (reut.rs). Since then, the Fed has introduced $1.5 trillion in repo injections, helping buoy the US30Y and DXY (bit.ly). ‘Hello, goodbye’: Oil took a dump as Saudi Arabia escalated tensions with Russia. The intent of a heavy supply increase is to get the Russian’s negotiating. Read more about this chicken fight at reut.rs What happens to the United States? Well, according to Reuters, "'U.S. production is likely less well hedged than the market realizes,' said Michael Tran, managing director of energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York” (reut.rs). Basically, producers bought protective put spreads and collars which only hedged from normal (expected) declines. What happened wasn’t quite expected, and so, some firms, like $APA and $CLR are facing severe trouble. Here are break-even prices for oil producing countries (tmsnrt.rs). On a side note, lower oil prices will be good for consumers and growth (bit.ly). Supply Risks: Joe Brusuelas of RSM expects supply shocks to roll from Asia, to Europe and then North America, "with the worst impact for businesses to come in April and May” (bit.ly). Additionally, an ISM survey indicates that the virus caused supply disruptions for 75% of U.S. companies, leading to a hit in revenues (bit.ly). Delinquency rates move higher (bit.ly); I detailed subprime auto-loan issues in a Benzinga.com article I wrote late last year (bit.ly). Sentiment: 29.7% Bullish, 19.0% Neutral, 51.3% Bearish as of 3/14/2020. (bit.ly) In The News: ‘V-Shaped’ Recovery: Despite the rapid increase in coronavirus cases (bit.ly) across the rest of the world, China seems to be recovering. According to Bloomberg, “Reservations for domestic flights and hotels in China are recovering from a coronavirus-induced slump as people return to work across the nation” (bloom.bg). Additionally, Chinese cargo flows at ports are recovering, according to Freight Waves (bit.ly). Slowdown Hits Hard: Countries like Italy have seen a rapid rise in deaths (nbcnews.to) and international travel is getting beat hard; “Travel analytics company ForwardKeys found that flight bookings to Italy fell by nearly 139% in the final week of February, compared with a year ago, the Washington Post reported,” according to Axios (bit.ly). The slowdown in travel is expected to cause almost $113 billion in losses for airlines, according to Guardian (bit.ly). “Bruno Braizinha at Bank of America had this perspective, earlier this week: When we abstract from the near-term noise and volatility and refocus on year-end scenarios we find two limiting cases: (1) a U.S. recession scenario with the pricing of the Fed to the Zero Lower Bound, which implies 20 basis points for two-year Treasuries and 50-80 basis points for 10-year Treasuries; or (2) an upswing back to trend growth as the coronavirus outbreak dissipates, which likely implies a Fed on hold after a 50 basis-point cut (two-year Treasuries around 1.1%) and 10-year Treasuries in the 1.5-1.7% range. A 50/50 weighting of these scenarios implies a 1-1.25% range for 10-year Treasuries at year-end. With forwards currently around 1.1%, the market seems to be assigning a marginally higher probability to the bullish rates scenario (bearish risky assets) for end-2020.” (bloom.bg) “There is also reason to worry about international debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements, some $17 trillion is owed by non-U.S. corporations without what CrossBorder Capital describes as “obvious U.S. dollar access.” It is hard to see how this will be refinanced without resort to further quantitative easing, just as some of the worst pain for individuals and small businesses to emerge from the virus may require helicopter money drops. None of this makes a credit crisis inevitable, and it should certainly be possible to avoid a crisis on the scale of 2008. The scale of the fear should increase the scale of the subsequent recovery if credit issues can be eased. But the fear that the coronavirus will be the trigger to spark the next generalized credit crunch is widespread, and is rational.” (bloom.bg) “High yield and investment grade CDX spreads are at their highest levels in over a year, and have widened materially this week. In the case of the junk, an optimist's explanation might be “well, that’s down to energy – an increasingly small part of the S&P 500, so it shouldn't ring alarm bells.” High-yield CDX had its biggest daily widening since 2015 on Thursday. But it’s fairly rare for the S&P 500 to be up 0.8% or more in a week with investment-grade CDX at least five basis points wider. The last time that happened was in September 2018. In other words, the top of the 2018 markets before that year's fourth-quarter rout in risk assets.” (bloom.bg) An energy price slump may hurt: “While many drillers in Texas and other shale regions look vulnerable, as they’re overly indebted and already battered by rock-bottom natural gas prices, significant declines in U.S. production may take time. The largest American oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., now control many shale wells and have the balance sheets to withstand lower prices. Some smaller drillers may go out of business, but many will have bought financial hedges against the drop in crude.In the short run, Russia is in a good position to withstand an oil price slump. The budget breaks even at a price of $42 a barrel and the finance ministry has squirreled away billions in a rainy-day fund. Nonetheless, the coronavirus’s impact on the global economy is still unclear and with millions more barrels poised to flood the market, Wall Street analysts are warning oil could test recent lows of $26 a barrel.” (yhoo.it) With unwinds come reductions in leverage; brokers, including IBKR, suspended intraday margin discounts and made changes to liquidation deferrals. Read more at bit.ly Information I'm Carrying Forward: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (reut.rs) "The healthy reserves of many states and cities are why we think municipalities are well positioned to weather some economic dislocation,” according to Cumberland Advisors (bit.ly). Exploration and production “firms hold the majority of the $86 billion of debt coming due in 2020-24, implying a higher default risk for the industry.” (bit.ly) “Oil prices expected to remain anchored around $65 per barrel through 2024.” (tmsnrt.rs) Visit (tmsnrt.rs) to view strategic choices for Saudi Arabia and Russia to protect prices and/or defend market share; one option includes forcing U.S. shale to slowdown. "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash … Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (bit.ly) Adding, firm’s have reduced spending (bit.ly) which may weaken the economy; The BLS released a report which turned negative for the first time in a while (bit.ly). "Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (reut.rs) "The shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%." (reut.rs) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months … While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (bloom.bg) "While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (reut.rs) Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei (NKD_F) Reaching Support AreaShort term Elliott wave view in Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests the Index is doing a larger degree pullback to correct the cycle up from August 26, 2019 low in wave IV, which is unfolding as a flat. Wave ((A)) of IV ended at 22630 low and wave ((B)) ended at 24030 high. From there, it has extended lower in wave ((C)), which is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((B)) high, wave (1) ended at 23090 low. The bounce in wave (2) ended at 23803 high. After that, the index extended lower in wave (3) which subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Wave 1 of (3) ended at 23415 low and wave 2 ended at 23635 high. The index continued lower in wave 3, which ended at 22165 low. Then, the bounce in wave 4 ended at 22365 high. The push lower in wave 5 of (3) ended at 22075 low. From there, the index then bounced in wave (4), which ended at 22735 high. Near term, the index has reached the 100% extension area from December 17, 2019 high between 21483-22489. However, expect another leg lower before the cycle from December 17 high ends in wave IV as long as 23803 pivot stays intact. Afterwards, the index should see a larger 3 waves bounce at least from the blue box area.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Japanese Stock Index "Nikkei 225" Can Lose 30% in the CorrectionNikkei 225 (JP225), commonly known as Nikkei, is a stock index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the world’s third-largest stock exchange with a market capitalization of US$5.6 trillion. As the leading index of Japanese stocks, Nikkei 225 (JP225) is a price-weighted stock index, equivalent to the American Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, comprising Japan’s most powerful 225 blue-chip companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Let’s take a look at Nikkei's structure via the Elliott Wave principle. The monthly chart above reveals that the 2009-2018 rally had formed a textbook five-wave impulse pattern. It is labeled 1-2-3-4-5 where the five sub-waves of wave 3 is visible. Unfolding Correction Makes Nikkei 225 Bulls Vulnerable The Elliott Wave theory states that a three-wave correction in the opposite direction follows every impulse. And indeed, the decline from 24595 to 18951 in 2018 can be seen as a simple a-b-c zigzag in wave A. The Nikkei 225 spent the entire 2019 trying to recover from that low and top at 24412 in December 2019 as a three-wave zigzag in B. This three-wave down and three-wave up pattern make JP225 vulnerable to further decline as it only a part of larger A-B-C flat or W-X-Y double zigzag Elliot Wave correction. Bearish targets near the support area of wave 4 or lower are plausible. If this assumption is correct, we can expect another selloff in wave C to approximately 15000 from the current level. That's a ~33% drop, I think now is not the time for bravery when it comes to the Nikkei 225 or investing in Japan's stock blue chip. Observing from a safe distance makes more sense. Do you think a 30% decline is plausible on Nikkei?
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by Veejahbee
Nikkei Struggling At Key Resistance as Revised Coronavirus Data Optimism crept back into the market earlier this week, with market participants speculating that cases of 2019-nCoV may peak by the end of February. However, a revision of the counting methods used to identify infections led to a 15,000 case jump in the Hubei province; with the WHO stating many of these cases date back up to three weeks. This has seen doubt creep back into the market with the Nikkei FOREXCOM:JPXJPY pegging back most of its gains from earlier in the week, after failing to break key resistance at the 24000 handle. Early formation of a shooting star candle, a potential triple-top reversal pattern and RSI divergence highlights exhaustion in the recent uptrend from late August 2019, and could see price begin to pull back to retest the 2020-low (22637) and 38.2% Fibonacci (22525). Break of support & sustained momentum to the downside could see price push towards significant uptrend support ,extending back to June 2016, and confluence with the 61.8% Fibonacci (21509). FOREXCOM:JPXJPY
FOREXCOM:JP225
by dmoss94
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Has Resumed HigherShort term Elliott wave view in Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests the Index ended the correction from December 17, 2019 high in wave ((4)) at 22628. The Index has resumed higher in wave ((5)) although it still needs to break above wave ((3)) on December 17, 2019 high at 24140 to avoid a double correction. However, the rally from February 1, 2010 low (22628) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure, favoring the upside. Furthermore, other world indices such as $YM_F (Dow Jones Futures) and $NQ_F (Nasdaq) have already broken to new high, supporting the view the next leg higher has started. Up from February 1, 2020 low (22628), wave 1 ended at 23015 and wave 2 pullback ended at 22800. The Index has resumed higher in wave 3 which subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Dips is expected to find support while above 22628 for further upside. We don’t like selling the Index. Near term, expect a few more highs before cycle from February 1 low ends as 5 waves in wave (1). Afterwards, it should correct cycle from February 1 low in wave (2) before the next leg higher. As far as pivot at 22628 low stays intact, expect dips to continue finding support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast