Japan 225
MARKET INSIGHT on SpotFX & Equity IndicesIn the recent development corporate America's tone is now changing towards the brighter side. With that said, analyst are looking into the corporate taxes on Wall street which was a concern then. Analyst are connecting the dots where equities would best be seen with the SP500 & DOW's recent rally can be attributed to. With US Statutory tax (ST) at current levels of 39%,while corporate taxes average at 28%; studies shows if ST can be lowered to or near the average then equities would certainly be higher with profits going in the same direction. Thus better benefits directly for most American workers moving forward.
"The Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) at 18,804.42 remained up 5.1 percent for the week closing at 18847.66. While the SP500 posted 36 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 314 new highs & 33 new lows. Nasdaq Composite added 0.22 percent to 5,220.37 resource based on Thomson - Reuters Data."
That is why our price page indicator tracking the Highs & Lows of the currency market including the major indices is part of the trading process that MegaTrade101 describes in its CIPHER3 Beyond Charting & Price Action Analysis. (Key Reference) Note, that there are instances that new highs & lows are made in the same month especially when an increase in price swing volatility moves in both directions.
The Chart above is a Comparison between the DOW,SP500, DXY, NASD, NIK225 CORRELATION. And the summary performance for the week including the Highs & Lows of the listed instruments.
FX & Equity Summary: TRADING RANGE / OHLC / VIEW / NEAR TERM TREND for the week ending Nov 11, 2016. Based on MegaTrade101 Price Page Indicator
INST T. RANGE OPEN HIGH LOW LAST REASON - NEAR TERM TREND
DXY 3.23 TR 97.45 99.13 95.89 99.00 US ELEC UP UP
GBPUSD 323 TR 1.2450 1.2673 1.2350 1.2595 UKCRT PREC PREC
EURUSD 470 TR 1.1057 1.1300 1.0830 1.0853 N LOW DWN DWN
USDJPY 5.76 TR 104.10 106.96 101.20 106.60 N HIGH USD UP
USDCHF 346 TR 0.9773 0.9896 0.9550 0.9870 USD PREC PREC
AUDUSD 253 TR 0.7677 0.7778 0.7525 0.7540 CORR CSLD MCORR
EURGBP 458 TR 0.8877 0.9024 0.8566 0.8610 N LOW DWN DWN
XAUUSD 118.33TR 1305.10 1337.20 1218.87 1226.20 N LOW PR MCORR
DOWI 879 TR 17994.65 18873.66 17994.60 18847.66 N HIGH UP UP
SP500 81.71 TR 2100.60 2182.30 2100.59 2164.50 N HIGH UP UP
NI225 1510 TR 17126 17621 16111 17374 N HIGH UP UP
Legend: US Election, UK CRT - UK Court, PREC - Price Recovery, PR - Price Reversal, CSLD - Consolidation, N High - New High, N Low - New Low, MCORR - Major Correction, INST - Instrument
Nikkei - Fake Breakout or a usual shakeout after breakout?The above is the weekly comparison chart of the Nikkei (candles) and USD/JPY (bars). We can clearly observe that the benchmark index closely follows the movement in the Yen.
Fake Breakout - The index had seen a bullish break above the descending trendline. However, the follow through has been weak. In fact, the current weekly closing is back below the descending trend line.
Shakeout after Breakout - However, this could also be a usual shakeout after the breakout. Such moves are often seen on larger time frames like - weekly and monthly. Furthermore, the Dollar-Yen pair has formed a nice rounding bottom formation over the last few months. This increases the likelihood the Nikkei index gaining strength once again in the near future.
JPN225, Nikkei may be preparing a nice dropJPN225 arrives to a downtrend line valid since more than One year ago and now will decide where to go. A secure breakout would mean a road to the new multi-year maximums.
Nevertheless, in my opinion, we will see one more leg down, which can long several months from now, and after that a run to these maximums will continue.
I´m ready to short 17,500 zone, targeting 12,000 on a mid-long term, SL: 18,100
Comparative Analysis: Correlation DX with #USDJPY #ETF #Ni225A Classic example applied in today's market condition between the USDJPY ccy pair, an ETF tracking the Nikkei 225 equity index. Where liquidity, a passive income ETF asset allocation are rolled into an effective strategy. Don not discount that there will always be bumps along the way.
On the other hand, much of our selective ETFs on equities including our DX futures contracts carry over towards the coming 2017 year have performed well above our expectations. One particular ETF (HEWJ) and the NK225 turn around prior to the USDJPY continuing market signal that registered a remarkable comeback to the 105.50 level prior to today's closing for the month was a welcome treat.
Comparative Analysis prominent DXY:
Nikkei: Bullish breakout in the dailyWe have a huge level below, and price has formed a daily 'Time at mode' signal.
You can enter longs here, risking a new daily low, and aiming for at least 17405 to be hit rapidly.
This is a technical setup, and it has good enough odds as to risk 1-2% in the position.
Good luck if you take it,
Ivan Labrie.
Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPIIn the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials:
If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below:
1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index.
2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225.
Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI (inflation) in a divergence/opposite movement.
3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500 (on this moment a consolidating market)
Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING Technical Analyses
NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
USDJPYdownward correction. the price so far has remained upward so if we see the daily chart the price seems to continue this trend which could confirm that on the daily chart the trend continued upward to reach the next resistance which is the 104.91 if you break that resistance will likely see the pair in 105 or even level off as 105.60 but if we see the price bouncing back to 103.00 levels or 102
Nikkei: Appears to have bottomed for nowWe can enter longs here (or in AUDJPY, like I reccomended to my clients), risking a small drop below low volume support). Risking 0.5% potential upside makes this trade worth it.
The weight of evidence suggests the BOJ will help us make some decent progress on this position soon.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.