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Japan 225

EURJPY: Potential position trade setting upWe have an interesting scenario here, with the possibility of Nikkei topping, and the Euro on the verge of being devaluated by the ECB's monetary policy. The setup offers a great risk/reward ratio, so I wouldn't hesitate to take it. Target is the AB=CD completion from the top to the current sideways range, but it will probably offer plenty of shorter term opportunities to scale in and book partial profits along the way. Good luck!
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
USDJPY and Nikkei: Potential reversalWe have a nice short opportunity in these charts. It's more evident in the case of USDJPY which offers a clear target and invalidation level. In the case of the Nikkei, it's at the level of a long term resistance, and showing a painful advance, not something I'd consider bullish in my view, and to make things worse, the highest low has been taken out by a down bar. We can enter short positions with confidence, keeping a reasonable stop, based on 3 ATR(11) in the case of the Nikkei, and slightly above my purple invalidation level in the case of USDJPY. Target would be the horizontal line below initially, where I'd suggest covering half of the position and moving the stop loss to break even in case it continues to fall.
Short
by IvanLabrie
32
Nikkei: UpdateCorrection started, as expected. We now have a bearish target in sight: 19184 by April 27th. This level and date will be a potential retracement area, or reversal, depending on how price action evolves. Considering the scale of the uptrend, I don't think this correction will end there, but we'll see. Better expand as we move forward. I am short GBPJPY, and monitoring SPX, EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY for important clues about this large development. Will post updates here.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
14
FXY: How long can the Yen carry trade last?There's a monthly time at mode expiration in this instrument coming next month. It's possible to see a reaction as carry trades get unwound, but it's not clear at what price yet. The extreme target is not reached, but the time at mode one has been exceeded, and heading for 2x the projected range soon. I think the dollar rally is about to hit its expiration date, regarding the Euro and the Yen at least, but it can last at least one more month. Looking at usdjpy closely, and also monitoring the S&P500, TLT, Dax, Nikkei and gold. These are very interesting times to be a trader! Will update with more insights and potential trade setups as they come. Good luck, Ivan.
AMEX:FXY
by IvanLabrie
5
Nikkei: Tight stop long tradeThe Nikkei is offering a nice tight entry on the long side. Risk 1/2 position on this one, entry is market now, stop at 20462, tp at 26720. Will trail the stop on a daily basis. The quarterly chart shows a valid uptrend in place, with time left until July 2016. We are also above the biggest time spent at price level in the whole chart's history, with the next significant resistance at 21244 and the next at 26720. If we manage to survive in this long and cross the first level, it might continue up and hit the second one, making this a very attractive entry. The horizontal ray on the daily chart is a vixfix 75% retrace level, caused by smart money buying into a strong decline, one of the key levels demonstrated by Tim West in his publications. (he uses Vix though, for S&P500) It's possible that we see a crash this year though, since this is so overextended, specially if S&P500 crashes like I expect. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
1
NIKKEI is approaching the reversal point in a couple of daysS&P reversed in May, and re-confirmed its reversal this week. Nikkei is approaching the reversal point just now. There is just one tiny subwave 5 left, in which the market may try to set a new high or match the previous one. After that we are going to observe a quick (1-2 months) retracement of the ending diagonal, travelling to 16500-17000. I think the first trading day of the month, 1st July, as usual will be a good starting point for a sell-off.
FX:JPN225Short
by AndyM
Nikkei: Short term short setupThe Nikkei is correcting the last upward leg in the daily chart after signaling a 3 bar daily uptrend, time expires today, and the 4h chart paints a clearly bearish picture. The minimal target is on chart, and to enter the trade I'd look into selling a range expansion down bar out of the mode at 20785. You would have to use my indicator and wait for a bar to turn red to market sell, or sell now if your strategy allows it. Mine doesn't, as price sits in a triangle right now, with conflicting shorter term trends colliding, I'd advice against jumping the gun. The linear regression is another cue, a breakout and 1 bar close without touching the mode is the go signal. Good luck! Ivan. PS: you can also use this chart as the opposite, a cue to go long Nikkei and/or USDJPY after confirming the selloff (which would take price into my buy area in the case of the Yen)
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
21
USDJPY: Longer term perspective is still bullishI've been watching this chart closely, and I think we might see a great buy setup in the near short term. Eyeing the area between 121.43 and 122.34, with invalidation for this signal below 118.968, potential upside is 137.94 in 6 months or less. We don't get significant trends in FX very often, and this is one of them. I'll be monitoring the Yen to enter a longer term position in it, since I consider the risk/reward and probabilities to be on the bullish side here. The fundamental odds favor this position as well, I included The Working Trader's idea in the related ideas field since I consider his input valuable. It's good when both technicals and fundamentals agree, just have to be patient for the right setup to pop. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
USDJPY: Top spottedSimple setup, initiate a short when the support is breached. We have a very strong decline after completing what looks like an expanding ending diagonal triangle in the 4h/daily charts. If price moves below the support level outlined in the chart, it will accelerate down, probably moving 430+ pips to the downside. As a bonus, crude oil seems to be moving up, while Nikkei falls, effectively boosting this trade, correlation wise. Will update with my entry and scale ins. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
16
USDJPY Head & ShoulderFundamentals: - BOJ has not express additional stimulus despite pressure from other central banks - A weaker USD due to economic data Technically: - Yen and Nikkei at 2015 high so pullback is healthy - 4 hour is showing potential H&S formation - RSI has rooms to fall - From the breakout level, Fib of 38.2% is a healthy and viable target If Head & Shoulder play out this is the target which coincide with the minor support and 38.2% retracement at 122.45 - 122.70 levels. Entry@ 123.70 Stop@ 124.20 (-50) Target@ 122.70 (100) RR of 1:2 After the pullback-usdyen is still a bullish market-consider switch to long
Short
by sugardaddyFED
NIKKEI 225 SHORT TERM ELLIOTTWAVE UPDATE 5/28/2015 Decline to 19033 completed wave ((X)), and the Index has since resumed the rally in the form of a double correction (W)-(X)-(Y)-)-(X)-(Z) where wave (W) ended at 19843, wave (X) ended at 19468, wave (Y) ended at 20563, second wave (X) ended at 20318, and wave (Z) is currently in progress towards 20900. Wave (Z) rally from 20318 ended the first leg at 20658 as wave ((w)). The Index is currently in wave ((x)) pullback deally towards 20402 - 20491 before the rally resumes. We do not like selling the proposed wave ((x)) pullback. As far as 20318 pivot holds in wave ((x)) pullback, expect buyers to come for 3 waves higher at minimum to correct the decline from 20658 per Elliott Wave hedging idea. --------------------------------- Twitter: cmellon1976 Website: elliottwave-forecast.com Free 14 days trial: elliottwave-forecast.com
FX:JPN225Long
by EWForecast
Potential Cypher in Nikkei 225Just looking at this stock index, you can see it is a one way street at the moment. However, one way streets are often dangerous and taking the opposing way can be rewarding sometimes. Here is a potential Cypher pattern. At the moment the price appears to be at a double top and I think many traders will chose this spot as a potential place to short. However, because the market is so strong I feel it will push up towards the upper trendline, testing the strength of these shorts. Many will stop out no doubt, then the market could fall back off this trendline to around 20231 completing the Cypher to give a potential long opportunity. Could short around 20650 and reverse position at 20231 at the line of resistance and Cypher completion point, then target the potential 20650 highs again. Remember markets do what they do, not what traders predict. This is just an idea. Please like this if you would like more posts like this.
FX:JPN225
by TomP
CADJPY: Neutral, probably pending upside to be seenCADJPY has been in a consolidation for some time, before launching a fierce uptrend, in what I consider to be a wave C impulse in a larger flat. I considered the move complete, but looking at how it behaved after topping, I suspect that the uptrend isn't complete yet. We can observe a series of smaller timeframe trends briefly putting the bears and the bulls in command, typical triangle behavior. Also, the daily and weekly rgmov remain signaling an uptrend, while price stopped falling when meeting with the lowest high trendline I drew from the lows, and we have a series of highs and lows where we don't observe a move past them, effectively suggesting coiling price action, yet to explode. The explosion will most likely be up if this is indeed a wave 4 triangle, but we'll see. For the time being, I refrain to trade this pair until it shows directional commitment on either side. Tread carefully! Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
7
Nikkei 225 Short Term Elliottwave Update 5/22/2015 Decline to 19033 completed wave ((X)), and the Index has since resumed the rally in wave W in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 19843 and wave ((x)) ended at 19468. In our previous Nikkei 225 update (see related ideas below), we said wave ((y)) is in progress towards 20276 – 20472, and some profit taking should be seen from this area and the Index to pullback 3 waves lower in wave X to correct the rally from 19054. Since our last update, current preferred Elliottwave view suggests wave ((y)) of W has ended at 20323, and wave X pullback is in progress towards the ideal target of 19514 – 19663 (50 – 61.8 back). Wave X pullback is unfolding in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) is expected to complete at 19996 – 20107, then it should bounce in wave ((x)) before turning lower to resume wave X pullback towards 19514 – 197663. We do not like selling the proposed wave X pullback. As far as 19033 pivot holds in wave X pullback, expect buyers to come for 3 waves higher at minimum to correct the decline from 20350 per Elliott Wave hedging technique. --------------------------------- Follow this index & others at Twitter: cmellon1976 Website: elliottwave-forecast.com
FX:JPN225
by EWForecast
EURJPY: BOJ fueled short pt. 2We have interesting news releases coming out tonight, and thoughout tomorrow's session. The technical chart shows an uptrend that is showing signs of exhaustion after correcting the strong decline from the December high from March 16 onwards. The advance was halted when price reached an area of weekly low volume resistance, where the market was extremely one sided. These areas can reject price and stop the bulls' advance very reliably. Now the market remains motionless after a strong selloff, which confirmed an hourly downtrend signal, while the 4h chart shows a volume buildup on the lows, increasing selling pressure after the sharp leg down completion started a sideways correction. I expect to see a strong move coming out of this juncture, fueled by the news releases. 23:00 US USD FOMC Member Williams speech 1 FRIDAY, MAY 22 02:00 CN CNY CB Leading Economic Index (Apr) 1 0.2 n/a JP JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3 03:00 JP JPY BoJ Press Conference 3 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1% 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q1) 3 0.3% 0.3% 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1% 06:45 FR EUR Business Climate (May) 1 101 101 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Expectations (May) 2 103.1 103.5 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Current Assessment (May) 2 113.6 113.9 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Business Climate (May) 2 108.3 108.6 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.4% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.8% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (Mar) 1 -0.9% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 2% 08:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3 09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 0.1% 09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.2% -0.2% n/a GR EUR Current Account (YoY) (Mar) 1 €-0.929B 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Apr) 1 240.79 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.1% 0.2% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Apr) 1 236.71 236.12 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.2% 0.2% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 3 -0.1% -0.1% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr) 3 1.7% 1.8% 13:30 JP JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech 3 13:30 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3 19:00 AR ARS Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr) 1 Previous ideas:
Short
by IvanLabrie
26