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Japan 225

Buy on dip at 50DMA in Nikkei Japanese index Nikkei 225 (NI225) is in a nice bull run since Uncle Warren loaded up on the cheap Japanese equities. The index made a top at 33770 and has been consolidating since then for the last few weeks. Recently the index made a triple bounce at the 50 day simple moving average with the last push happening on the day of the BoJ MPC meeting decision. The price action on the index is nicely bullish and seems to be heading toward previous highs of 33770.
TVC:NI225Long
by vipulmehta817
Nikkei in a bullish channelNIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 32535 (stop at 32295) We are trading at overbought extremes. Previous resistance level of 33068 broken. A lower correction is expected. Short term bias is mildly bullish. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 32770, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 33135 and 33285 Resistance: 34015 / 35000 / 36110 Support: 32030 / 30800 / 29810 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
NLong
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei- Break of Double top's necklineLike most of the global indices, Nikkei also had a good run this year. However, since mid-June, the index started to lose its power and has drawn a Doube Top pattern on our charts. The start of the week brought the break under the neck-line support of the pattern and Nikkei could continue to the downside. Levels to watch for bears are 31100 old congestion which also coincides with the measured target of the double top and the important 30k figure. I'm bearish as long as the price is under 33200
TVC:NI225Short
by Mihai_Iacob
4
Japan Inflation Ni225 | JPYUSD problematic situation unfolding Seeing major problems unfolding in Japan right now due to the QE of Japanese Government Bonds. This is almost like a repeat of 1980-1990s Japan's M3 has gone exponential to the point some of this Yen is causing local inflation to rise. When Japan was forced to raise rates due to the Ni225 creating unwanted inflation Japan's equity market imploded and the rush to Japanese YEN commenced. This caused the Japanese YEN strength against the US Dollar to to climb flooding purchasing power back into the US equity markets contributing to sending the Dow 478%. Talk about a problematic situation if Japan's Inflation bubble gets too big in Japan its going to send them back to the 80s. We are at the start of a few G7 countries losing control of their entire financial system that leads to Hyperinflation. 225% Government debt to gdp is never scary, well until inflation starts to rise and you now need to deal with it.
TVC:DJI
by FederalXBT
NI225 has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks !NI225 has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks ! Is it about to reverse? This chart shows the weekly candle chart of the Nikkei Stock Index from the end of 2019 to the present. The graph overlays the line between the low point in 2020 and the low point in March 2023, the line between the low point in 2023 and the sub low point, as well as the horizontal line of the short start position in September 2021 and the horizontal line of the long start position in April 2023. As shown in the figure, the Nikkei Index has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks and has exceeded its limit! In the next week, as the strongest Nikkei index in the near future, there is a high probability that it will lead the global stock index to retreat, probably by stepping back on the top diagonal line in the chart, and then choosing a direction!
TVC:NI225
by Think_More
1
Nikkei (NKD) Looking to Complete Wave 5 of Elliott Wave ImpulseShort term Elliott Wave in Nikkei (NKD) suggests that cycle from 1.3.2023 low is progressing as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse. Up from 1.3.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 28715 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 26285. Wave 3 rally ended at 31695 as 1 hour chart below shows. Dips in wave 4 unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 31180 and rally in wave (b) ended at 31405. Wave (c) lower ended at 31075 and this ended wave ((w)). Rally in wave ((x)) completed at 31450. Index resumed lower again in wave ((y)) with internal subdivision as a double three in lesser degree. Down from wave ((x)), wave (w) ended at 30940 and rally in wave (x) ended at 31155. Decline in wave (y) ended at 30634 which completed wave ((y)) of 4. Index has since turned higher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 31200 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 30945. Index rallies again in wave (iii) towards 31345 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 31185. Expect Index to extend higher to end wave (v) of ((i)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 5.31.2023 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 30634 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
CME:NKD1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Gone Too Far…As the world remains engrossed in the unfolding drama of the debt ceiling, we believe another event of significance deserves our attention. Let's take a brief detour into the annals of economic history, looking at the era of Abenomics. This term refers to the monetary policy instituted during Shinzo Abe's second term as Prime Minister of Japan. Abenomics rested on the foundation of "Three Arrows" - aggressive monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and a robust growth strategy. The outcome? The Nikkei embarked on an impressive bull run, seemingly unstoppable in its upward trajectory. This performance becomes all the more remarkable when compared to the S&P500, which managed a modest gain of only 12% over the same period. This comparison sparked an intriguing question: How do these two indices compare now, especially with the Nikkei shattering two-decade highs? When we chart the spread, the ratio of Nikkei 225 to S&P 500 stands on the brink of upper resistance, a boundary that has proven significant for nearly a decade. A more granular exploration of each index reveals some compelling details. For the S&P 500, we observe a break of the upper resistance as well as a break from an ascending triangle, both of which signify a bullish continuation. While RSI has not yet reached the overbought territory. On the other hand, the recent surge in the Nikkei 225 index has been robust and swift, surpassing the 2021 highs, with the RSI indicating an extreme overbought scenario. Thus, we suspect that the Nikkei's meteoric ascent may have overshot its mark. This situation presents an intriguing trading opportunity: shorting the Nikkei 225 / S&P 500 spread. This can be executed by shorting the Nikkei 225 Futures and going long on the S&P 500 Futures. To match the Nikkei 225 USD contract size at the current price of 31,300 with a contract value of 31,300 x 5 = 156,500 USD, we could utilize the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures at the current price of 4,215 with a contract value of 4,125 x 5 = 21,075 USD. Hence, to balance the position size, we could employ 1 Nikkei 225 contract and 7 Micro S&P 500 contracts. The Nikkei 225 USD Futures represents 5 USD x Nikkei Stock Average. Prices are quoted in US dollars and cents per index point, each 5 point move is equal to 25 USD. The Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures represents 5 USD x S&P 500 index. Prices are quoted in US dollars and cents per index point, each 0.25 index point move is equal to 1.25 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.adb.org www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:NI225Short
by inspirante
Cheap Yen & Low P/E To Deliver Immense Bargains in NikkeiBuying financial assets in dips provides an inbuilt margin of safety. Enriching that trade is a currency that is hovering at its near lowest in a decade. Expected equity gains compounded with Yen that is anticipated to strengthen will strongly propel alpha from the proposed trade setup in Japanese equities. The P/E ratio based on next 12-months earnings in Japan is 13x and cheaper relative to 18x for the S&P500 and 27x for the Nasdaq. The Yen is near its lowest on average based on real-effective exchange rate. It is 2.3x standard deviations below the average over the last decade. For investors looking to hedge their yen exposure, its term structure delivers a positive basis (forward value minus spot price) that can be harvested through hedging. A long position in CME Nikkei/Yen Futures combined with a full currency hedge delivers a 1.9x reward to risk ratio with entry at 29065 and target of 31295 hedged by a stop at 27900. DEMYSTIFYING THE NIKKEI 225 INDEX (“NIKKEI”) The Nikkei index lists 225 largest Japanese firms. Given Japan’s heft, the index is an indicator of Asian market sentiments. The Japanese stock index was previously called Nikkei Dow Jones Stock Average from 1975 to 1985. The name was later changed to Nihon Keizai Shimbun or Japan Economic Newspaper which is commonly referred to as Nikkei. The Nikkei is a price-weighted index with an adjustment factor for each stock. The summation of the adjusted prices is divided by a divisor (29.508) to maintain index continuity. The 225 firms are spread across thirty-five industries. Top fifteen industries form 93% of the index. Top ten firms represent 38% of the Nikkei. Technology, Consumer Goods, Materials, and Capital Goods represent 95% of the index. JAPANESE EQUITIES HAVE BEEN RESILIENT THIS YEAR Japanese equities have delivered 13% gains so far this year with resilience across all sectors. Thanks to Apple and Microsoft, Nasdaq has returned 22% this year as investors seek shelter from ongoing crisis in US banking sector. “Stealth” QE partly explains the outsized gains in Nasdaq. In sharp contrast, S&P500 is up 9%, Dow is up 3%, Russell 2000 is up merely 1% while Chinese equities are down 3%. Positive performance in Nikkei is evident across all sectors and names. Broad based recovery in Japan makes Nikkei far more resilient relative to US equities where superior performance is restricted to no more than a dozen quality names. JAPANESE EQUITIES ARE PRIMED FOR GROWTH Japanese shares continue to inch higher with the Nikkei trading near its highest level in eight months led by earnings optimism and expanded government subsidies for chip production. The prospect of chip makers looks bright after Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said Japan plans to provide additional subsidies to chipmakers. The P/E based on next 12-months earnings in Japan is around ~13x and cheaper relative to ~18x in the US. For every dollar of earnings, only USD 13 is required to be invested in Nikkei compared to USD 18 in the S&P500 & USD 27 in Nasdaq. Japanese stocks not only trade on low P/E but pay healthy dividends. Nikkei has a yield of 2.13% compared to Dow Jones at 2.09%, S&P 500 at 1.67% and Nasdaq-100 at merely 0.86%. THE YEN IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN ITS HAVEN STATUS The yen is expected to regain its status as a haven currency after years of dollar dominance with the BOJ expected to normalise its monetary policy. The BOJ is anticipated to discard its yield-curve control policy in coming months and that should help strengthen the Yen. Barclays analysts expect the yen to appreciate to 123 per dollar by this time next year. The yen has faced headwinds from higher energy prices and a worsening rate differential as global central banks hiked rates to contain inflation. As energy prices ease and the rate hiking cycles pause, selling pressure on the Yen will soften. If the Fed stops raising rates after a final increase this week, that might lead to inflation-adjusted yield differentials to stop widening in favour of USD. Majority of forecasts have the yen strengthening to levels beyond that implied by the forward market. Analysts are one way on the direction of the dollar-yen. Japanese yen forecast for end-2023 was 125 as of last week, compared to FX forward rate at 129. Analysts at RBC fear that these crowded expectations underplay the impact of recession. US recession spreading to global markets could send the Yen plunging to 150 to the dollar as per RBC. COT REPORTS POINT TO BULLISH SENTIMENTS FOR JAPANESE EQUITIES The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report (COT) shows positioning by professional investors in Nikkei futures. The report shows open interest segmented into four buckets, namely, (a) Asset Managers (pension funds, mutual funds, & institutional asset managers), (b) Leveraged Funds (hedge funds & money managers), (c) Other Reportables (traders using derivatives to hedge business risk), and (d) Non-Reportables (small speculators). Asset Managers have increased their net long positioning by 278% in Yen denominated futures. Leverage funds have reduced net shorts on Dollar-denominated futures. TRADE SET UP Low P/E ratios, Cheap Yen, Resurgence as a Haven, are among the drivers favouring the Nikkei. A long position in CME Nikkei/Yen Futures with currency fully hedged will deliver a 1.9x reward to risk ratio with entry at 29250 and target of 31295 hedged by a stop at 27900. Every tick represents five index points corresponding to a change of JPY 2,500 per lot. ● Entry: 29065 ● Target: 31295 ● Stop: 27900 ● Profit at target: JPY 1,115,000 ● Loss at stop: JPY 582,500 ● FX hedging gains with CME Micro USD/JPY Futures (Dec 23 contract): JPY 37,200 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.9x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:NIYM2023Long
by mintdotfinance
1
Nikkei to stem dip?NIK225 - 24h expiry - Selling pressure from 28805 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 28330 level. We look to Buy at 28331 (stop at 28175) Our profit targets will be 28725 and 28785 Resistance: 29295 / 29710 / 30300 Support: 28505 / 27880 / 27395 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225YJPYLong
by OANDA
Nikkei to find support at previous high?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 28250 (stop at 28075) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 28695 and 28745 Resistance: 29295 / 29710 / 30300 Support: 27880 / 27395 / 27050 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NLong
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei rallies to be limited by a swing high?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 28330 (stop at 28530) We are trading at overbought extremes. Prices spiked higher and stalled at resistance in early trade. Further selling pressure led to a reversal in price action. The current move lower is expected to continue. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27760 and 27395 Resistance: 28505 / 29295 / 29710 Support: 27880 / 27395 / 27050 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NShort
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei to stall at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 28135 (stop at 28340) Buying pressure from 27458 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. We are trading at overbought extremes. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 27550 and 27395 Resistance: 27880 / 28505 / 29295 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NShort
by VantageMarkets
Nikkei remains a long.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 28098 (stop at 27940) Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (25535 - 28653) and we expect this to continue. Short term bias is bullish. Bespoke support is located at 28098. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 28469 and 28509 Resistance: 28276 / 28588 / 28731 Support: 28098 / 27864 / 27629 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225YJPYLong
by OANDA
Selling Nikkei into a rally.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 28280 (stop at 28505) Buying pressure from 27629 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27705 and 27605 Resistance: 28505 / 29295 / 29710 Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NShort
by VantageMarkets