FRED Are Done Raising Rates -- Raise Rates? Japan Collapses.
Japanese Currency Strength is back to 1987 levels
Japan is the main source of YCC for the USA buying down bond Yields
If USA raises rates any more Japan will be in free fall collapse (hyperinflation)
They need to pause at worst start reducing rates.
My guess?
Money printer is coming back and will come back fast to save the Yen, this is not just a "Asian currency" this is the single weak point for the entire US bond system if the Yen goes the US bond yields go ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Japan cannot tap out and raise rates, Japan cannot ditch the Yen and adopt the US Dollar, Japan is in some serious trouble here.
All Japan can do is continue to issue "Stimulus Packs" that is making the M3 go parabolic that leads to serious inflation. Now what happens when a country issues unlimited Stimulus Packs and cannot raise interest rates?
Japan 225
NIKKEI: Bull Flag broken upwards. Target 34,000Nikkei crossed over its late three month Channel Down pattern which according to the almost +30% rise that preceded it, may be the Bull Flag that technically follows and transitions into the next rally. The 1D technical outlook already turned bullish (RSI = 58.030, MACD = 173.400, ADX = 33.840) and as the 2021 fractal, targets the R1, or at least a little under it (TP = 34,000).
See how the 1D MA100 supported the downtrend on the August 17th bottom and shortly after a Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD followed.
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NI225 Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NI225 broke out of the
Opening wedge pattern and
Went up but the path above
Is now blocked by the resistance
Level of 33,757 and I doubt that
It will be broken with the fist
Attempt so a local correction
From the level is to be expected
Sell!
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NIKKEI INDEX, Holding Important Levels, This Is Possible Now!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this important analysis about the NIKKEI 4-hour timeframe perspective, recent events occurred, the current formation-structure, what is possible within this environment, what we can expect when the proper scenario has confirmed rightly. In the last weeks almost all major world indices seem to recover from the heavy corona-breakdowns marked this year but the big question now will be if these recoveries are sustainable or if there are coming bigger pull-backs when not a continuation of the bear-action established this year ahead. In the NIKKEI I found some interesting and meaningful signs how further development will proceed which will have an impact on the outcome.
As you can examine when looking at my chart is that the NIKKEI is building up this triangular-formation marked with the orange triangle in my chart which is building coherently up by the falling resistance line you can watch marked in light-blue and the lower boundary of the rising channel the NIKKEI is forming here. Not only these levels building the symmetrical triangular formation which can break either to the up or downside here but also the confirmed touches of the lower and upper boundary and the several touched of the 60-EMA marked in red which is a significant factor in this range holding the overall trend to the upside, when this EMA is broken to the downside it will cause great bearish pressure, therefore, it is highly necessary to hold this EMA.
Taking all these factors into consideration and the fact that NIKKEI has not yet confirmed below the 60-EMA and therefore holding above it and the lower boundary a bullish breakout is more possible than a bearish breakout which will confirm with a 65 % possibility better as the bearish with a 35 % possibility, to make this breakout sustainable it is from high importance that the NIKKEI closes above the upper boundary with a protracted and stable move to confirm it in the right manner. When the breakout happens it can be traded conservatively after a pull-back, although the immediate entry in the triangle is also possible here it should not be kept as the best option as the triangle has still not confirmed so far the conservative trade should be smarter.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, have a great day, and all the best to you!
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Nikkei 225 Reaches Psychological Level at 33,000In 2023, Japan's stock market is in a bullish trend (shown by the blue channel) as the country has an ultra-loose monetary policy (unlike other G7 countries that are fighting inflation). As a result, the cheap yen helps Japanese companies, which are largely export-oriented, to develop. According to the Cabinet of Japan, GDP in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
The growth of the Japanese stock market from the beginning of the year to today is about 28%. And on Sept. 5, the Nikkei 225 closed above the psychological 33,000 level. Yahoo Finance reports that Kenji Abe, Daiwa Securities equity strategist, predicts the Nikkei could gradually rise to 35,000 after a strong reporting season this summer.
Bearish arguments:
→ the level of 33,000 points can serve as psychological resistance. After the Doji candle on September 6 (which can be interpreted as the uncertainty of market participants in the continuation of growth), the price dropped on the morning of September 7, which confirms the weakening of demand.
→ line (1), built on the highs of summer, can provide resistance.
However, the bullish argument is that the line (1) is an element of the flag technical analysis pattern. If the pattern works, then we should expect its breakdown and the continuation of the trend in 2023. How likely this scenario is can be judged by the depth of the rollback from the line (1), which is already looming on the chart.
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Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go!
Chinese real-estate has collapsed
China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth)
China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2)
China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral
Japan Real estate is also dead
Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy
Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong?
I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on.
This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets.
The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!.
Japan? their currency is done.
Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return.
Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return.
People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically.
All of this capital will flow back into the USA.
The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market.
"Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
USDJPY | FRED RATE CUT / BOJ / QE to Infinity Emergency Is here.
Japanese Yen running the risk of entering Hyperinflation like the Argentine Peso thanks to the USA.
JPY Used to purchase US Debt while USA has Inflation problem has caused them to purchase more than expected including the FRED running (System Open Market Account (SOMA) (soft YCC)
China cannot get growth due to US higher rates slowing business growth meaning > Bank Of China has to start rate cutting and essentially do extreme QE or China will collapse.
Japan will be FORCED to not raise interest rates due to them owning the most US Debt (bonds) on low interest rates. Japan is experiencing spike in inflation and currency devaluation as people are figuring this out.
China forced to QE to counter deflation Yuan will collapse.
Japan forced to QE to counter inflation Yen will collapse.
If Japan raises rates the BOJ & institutions have to offload US bonds collapsing the US Bond market as the interest rates will destroy the carry trade.
FRED cannot pause they have no choice to start rate cuts within the next months.
If the FRED does not do this Japan's demise will send the US bond market under forcing QE / YCC by the FRED sending the FRED balance sheet to all time highs.
If the FRED does not do this China could experience a complete society breakdown.
There's a log term H&S on the JPY/USD that was going to eventually be tested leading to a -47% of the JPY currency (they will be forced to QE to locals to deal with currency collapse like Argentina leading to even more devaluation.
NIKKEI225 Adjusted for Japan M3 supply showing more and more strength since the 1980s alerting local people are starting to lose faith in the Japanese Yen.
This is no longer a "get Inflation lower story" it has started a sovereign debt and sovereign currency crisis. If people are unaware how much power and the FRED has in this situation, this could provoke the start of a new Cold War. What happens when the biggest holders of US debt Japan / China implode? the entire US bond system implodes.
Suddenly the countries like El Salvador getting their credit upgraded while the US credit gets downgraded are looking very smart right now.
End Game.
Stock Index Review...Key Levels you need to watch!!We take a look at the Daily charts and price action on our Key Indexes.
It is important to have a longer term view of the price action and risk levels on the key markets so we will discuss our major markets and what we are looking for in the video.
We take a look at the following Key Indexes:-
Nasdaq, DOW, DAX, FTSE, ASX200, Hang Seng and the Nikkei.
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Buy on dip at 50DMA in Nikkei Japanese index Nikkei 225 (NI225) is in a nice bull run since Uncle Warren loaded up on the cheap Japanese equities.
The index made a top at 33770 and has been consolidating since then for the last few weeks. Recently the index made a triple bounce at the 50 day simple moving average with the last push happening on the day of the BoJ MPC meeting decision.
The price action on the index is nicely bullish and seems to be heading toward previous highs of 33770.
Nikkei in a bullish channelNIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 32535 (stop at 32295)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Previous resistance level of 33068 broken.
A lower correction is expected.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 32770, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 33135 and 33285
Resistance: 34015 / 35000 / 36110
Support: 32030 / 30800 / 29810
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Nikkei- Break of Double top's necklineLike most of the global indices, Nikkei also had a good run this year.
However, since mid-June, the index started to lose its power and has drawn a Doube Top pattern on our charts.
The start of the week brought the break under the neck-line support of the pattern and Nikkei could continue to the downside.
Levels to watch for bears are 31100 old congestion which also coincides with the measured target of the double top and the important 30k figure.
I'm bearish as long as the price is under 33200
USDJPY-07/07/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The deal on the Japanese yen is in the active phase. The entry point that we gave in previous ideas for the breakdown of the level of 143.8 gives its plus. Nevertheless, the decline will most likely not stop there, our goals are much lower. The real obstacle for the buyer is at the level of 141.327. There as it is possible to partially fix the profit.
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Nikkei 225: Bearish Divergence at Bearish Butterfly PCZThere is Bearish Divergence on both the RSI and MACD at the PCZ of a Bearish Butterfly, and there will hardly be any support until we reach the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension down at 18627JPY, but from the looks of it, it will likely be a very fast drop followed by an even faster recovery, but in the meantime the JPY could gain some strength.
Japan Inflation Ni225 | JPYUSD problematic situation unfolding
Seeing major problems unfolding in Japan right now due to the QE of Japanese Government Bonds.
This is almost like a repeat of 1980-1990s Japan's M3 has gone exponential to the point some of this Yen is causing local inflation to rise.
When Japan was forced to raise rates due to the Ni225 creating unwanted inflation Japan's equity market imploded and the rush to Japanese YEN commenced.
This caused the Japanese YEN strength against the US Dollar to to climb flooding purchasing power back into the US equity markets contributing to sending the Dow 478%.
Talk about a problematic situation if Japan's Inflation bubble gets too big in Japan its going to send them back to the 80s.
We are at the start of a few G7 countries losing control of their entire financial system that leads to Hyperinflation.
225% Government debt to gdp is never scary, well until inflation starts to rise and you now need to deal with it.
NI225 has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks !NI225 has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks !
Is it about to reverse?
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of the Nikkei Stock Index from the end of 2019 to the present. The graph overlays the line between the low point in 2020 and the low point in March 2023, the line between the low point in 2023 and the sub low point, as well as the horizontal line of the short start position in September 2021 and the horizontal line of the long start position in April 2023. As shown in the figure, the Nikkei Index has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks and has exceeded its limit! In the next week, as the strongest Nikkei index in the near future, there is a high probability that it will lead the global stock index to retreat, probably by stepping back on the top diagonal line in the chart, and then choosing a direction!
UPDATE Nikkei reached first target at 32,652W Formation formed on the Nikkei.
We then had a strong breakout with high inclination.
The price has since rocketed to our first target.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target 32,652
It's still extremely bullish, but we can expect the price to come down consolidate in a range before we get the next buy signal.
I'll let you know.