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Japan 225

Nikkei Futures ( NKD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish continuationTitle: Nikkei Futures ( NKD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish continuation Type: Bearish continuation Resistance: 26555 Pivot: 25960 Support: 25610 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NKD1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 25610, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 25960, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CME:NKD1!Short
by Genesiv
The BoJ meeting playbook - navigating big moves in the JPYIt’s been many years since Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings posed significant risks for traders, but this Wednesday’s BoJ meeting holds the potential for significant volatility in USDJPY, as well as the JPY crosses, and JPN225. The risk manager The job of the trader is to manage risk, as well as achieving correct position sizing for every trade. So, when I look at the explosion in USDJPY 1-week (options) implied volatility – essentially the markets' expectation of movement in USDJPY through the week – we see this at 23%, and the highest levels since March 2020. For context, this equates to expectations of around 350 pips, or a near 3% move this week in USDJPY (higher or lower). Much of this move could be realised on the day from headlines from the BoJ meeting and what the market hears relative to positioning and expectations. When we see such high expectations of movement, the question traders need to ask is whether they should reduce or even exit exposures before the event. In some cases when there is a strong skew in the potential outcomes and a high enough conviction, whether to even take a position over the event – in special situations these events can offer high/risk reward outcomes. We assess that here. Key times to be aware of – Headlines and the outcome from the meeting will come out on Wednesday, likely in the Asia session afternoon. Unlike most data points there is no set time, but we should hear the outcome between 13:00 and 15:00 AEDT. What is expected from the BoJ? Last week we saw an article in the Japanese publication Yomiuri Shimbun that the BoJ was reviewing the negative effects of its current monetary policy regime – despite only changing its policy setting on 20 December, where they lifted the ceiling (or cap) by which the 10yr JGB yield (Japanese govt bond) can trade to 0.50%, the market swiftly took this to mean another key change was incoming. The fact the BoJ had to ramp up its daily bond buying to a record amount to defend the 0.50% cap, suggests their policy setting is still highly dysfunctional, and with inflation pushing 4% its current yield curve control (YCC) program is on borrowed time. While we can look at the possible outcomes, and assign a probability and potential market reaction, I think in all cases the BoJ will try its utmost to say the action is designed to address an increasingly dysfunctional market and should not be seen as a tightening of policy. The market will likely look through this and ignore their pleas. Given 10yr JGBs currently trade above 0.5% (or 50bp), 10yr swap rates trade above 90bp and the JPY has had a one-way move of late, one assumes the market is skewed and part positioned to an outcome that the BoJ abolish its YCC program. This plays into my back-of-the-envelope playbook. Possible actions: • The BoJ again widens the yield band to -/+0.75% while continuing to buy incredible amounts of JGBs in its daily operations to support the 0.75% yield cap - an action that doesn’t make a huge amount of sense as it would not resolve the dysfunctional market and would need to be altered again – likely promotes a 2%+ rally on the day in USDJPY • The BoJ widens the yield band out to -/+1% while continuing to buy JGBs to support the cap – tactically this makes more sense, but an action that could cause a 1%+ rally in USDJPY • The BoJ leave policy unchanged but signals a change is coming – this would surprise and cause a 2.5%+ rally on the day in USDJPY • Completely terminates its YCC program – the market is leaning this way but would still likely cause a 3%+ sell-off on the day in USDJPY • Shifts the YCC target which is currently capping 10yr JGBs at 0.50% and move to target the 5yr JGB instead – it's hard to create a clear framework on this policy change, but an action that likely leads to the most subdued reaction seen in USDJPY For those new to BoJ policy and bond markets this event risk does require some research. As always, moves in markets come from current market positioning, expectations, and the actual outcome. For me, simplistically, given expectations are now elevated for an end to YCC and its yield cap – hence, a lack of action would be a big surprise and cause a significant move higher in USDJPY. If the BoJ decides to remove its YCC cap, then despite positioning I think there is further to go, and it could have huge implications for the JPY and see USDJPY smashed as traders front-run the idea of massive capital repatriation from Japanese pension funds eyeing more compelling returns in their domestic bond markets. The BoJ meeting holds the potential for bug moves not just in the JPY and JPN225 but could influence the USD across other G10 pairs too – be aware of the event and manage the risks accordingly.
by Pepperstone
2
JAPAN225 12th JANUARY 2023The trendline is the most common part of technical analysis in forex trading. But when compared to support and resistance, trendlines are less commonly used. The trendline should be more significant due to the number of touches. Trendlines are very suitable in combination with several technical indicators, one of which is the Money Flow Index (MFI). MFI is an indicator used to measure money inflows and outflows, both from local and foreign investors in the stock. Since MFI measures money inflows and outflows, it also involves volume in its indicator. In other words, MFI also measures market interest in a stock (inflows and outflows are closely related to market interest). That's why MFI also includes volume in its indicator. How to read the MFI indicator is very easy, almost the same as how to read other indicators, such as the relative strength index, stochastic, and others. MFI has 2 main boundary lines, the overbought and oversold lines. The overbought line is at 80 and above. The oversold line is at 20 and below (note the arrow above). This means that if the MFI indicator is at 80 and above, there has been too much money inflow from investors, which causes the stock price to rise, thus causing overbought. Meanwhile, if the MFI indicator is at 20 and below, there is too much money outflow from investors, which causes the stock price to fall, causing oversold.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by DNP-FX
6
Buying Nikkei at current lows.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 25620 (stop at 25400) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at oversold extremes. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. Previous support located at 25616. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 26245 and 26430 Resistance: 25795 / 26430 / 26830 Support: 25060 / 24500 / 24120 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NLong
by VantageMarkets
Selling Nikkei into current swing highs.K225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 26635 (stop at 26855) Buying pressure from 25931 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 26015 and 25795 Resistance: 26435 / 26830 / 27150 Support: 25795 / 25060 / 24120 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NShort
by VantageMarkets
$JPN225: Nikkei setting up for a rallyAs China reopening looms, maybe we get a boost too Japanese equities from here onwards...There's some interesting names, like Casio, whose line of luxury and more fashionable watches has been successful as of late. Definitely worth looking into it more. The index futures chart has a potential bottom signal in the short term at least, and with news of COVID zero being phased out, we might get the pop that is needed to kick start a Santa Rally here. Entries and stops and take profit levels on chart. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Buying Nikkei at previous support.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 27510 (stop at 27290) Selling pressure from 28166 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. The medium term bias remains bullish. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 28030 and 28460 Resistance: 28460 / 29235 / 30220 Support: 27425 / 26700 / 26470 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by OANDA
Selling Nikkei into a rally.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Sell at 28080 (stop at 28260) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27565 and 27110 Resistance: 27925 / 28425 / 29240 Support: 27520 / 27110 / 26610 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by OANDA
NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up 2.05% from last week according to DVOL data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 38th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.82% movement Bearish: 1.74% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 22.4% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 28309 BOT: 27170 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 73% probability we are going to touch previous high 27955 27% probability we are going to touch previous low 27419 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 64% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 21% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates 7% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
TVC:NI225
by exlux
Selling Nikkei at swing high.NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 27925 (stop at 28140) Buying pressure from 27410 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27415 and 27110 Resistance: 27925 / 28425 / 29240 Support: 27515 / 27110 / 26610 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:JAPAN225CFDShort
by Saxo
Nikkei to fakeout?NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 28455 (stop at 28650) We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. Previous resistance located at 28339. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 27895 and 27515 Resistance: 28425 / 29240 / 30175 Support: 27925 / 27515 / 27110 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:JAPAN225CFDShort
by Saxo
Buying Nikkei in a bullish channel.NIK225 - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 27675 (stop at 27360) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Trading within a Bullish Channel formation. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 28580 and 29240 Resistance: 28360 / 29240 / 30175 Support: 27370 / 26930 / 26385 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
CITYINDEX:JAPAN225CFDLong
by Saxo
NIKKEI 225 CFD BEARISH PATTERNJapan is currently facing an inflation high not seen in 40 years. The weak yen and the increased cost of foreign supply for industrial commodities and manufacturing parts are slowing down the economy of the country. On the technical front the index has broken the support of the triangle pattern and a bearish move might be expected. RSI indicator is heading below 50 neutral line and MACD histogram is below 0. If the pattern continues the price might test the support levels of 27831. In the opposite scenario, the price might try to reach its previous resistance at 27929.50 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
TVC:NI225Short
by legacyFXofficial
NIKKEI 225 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 NIKKEI 225 Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 4.56%, rising 3.68% of last month. This is currently placing us in the 25th percentile according to ATR and 83th according to JNIV Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is: BEARISH Candle : 4.7% BULLISH Candle : 3.1% With this in mind we can expect with a close to 23.4% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel: BOT: 26600 TOP: 28630 Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a : 80% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 27600 (already happened yesterday) 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 25600
TVC:NI225
by exlux
📖USDJPY-09/30/2022-Squeeze as much as possible out of growth📈📅 Date: 09/30/2022 ➡️ Trading instrument: USDJPY 📊 Priority direction: BUY 💬 Comment: The current balance of the USDJPY currency pair in the price area of ​​144 - 144.70 indicates the further strength of buyers, and there is probably no point in hoping for a reversal now. Also, despite the fact that the dollar index (DXY) is now in a logical correction, JPY is more likely to continue to fall despite some "momentary weakness" of the US currency. The upper border of the balance at the level of 144.70 is now in the focus, break upside is expected. This scenario is the most conservative. Target is at the level of 145 (145.20 and 145.40 can be considered). The second variant of entering is the level 144.430, where the support line is located (acting as a price pressure to the level 144.70). At the time of writing this idea, the price is just at this level. The third entry option is the bottom of the balance at the level of 144. There, one can expect a bounce up or a false breakout. All three scenarios assume the growth of the USDJPY currency pair with a high degree of probability. Despite this, limit the risks according to the entry system. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍 👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
Long
by TradePlus-Fx
10
The Nikkei considers a bounce ahead of the FOMC meetingThe Nikkei 225 has fallen sharpy towards (yet held above) the September low. A small bullish hammer formed on Thursday to show a loss of bearish momentum, alongside a false break of trend support. A bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday and closed above the 100 and 200-day EMA's. Its low also respected a 50% retracement level and closed back above trend support for a second consecutive day. We therefore suspect a bounce is on the cards, although as markets are wary of the upcoming FOMC meeting we are also aware that any such bounce may limited, so traders would be wise to keep a close eye on price action and not expect oversized moves, unless a new catalyst arrives. Low volatility retracements within Friday's candle could help to improve the potential reward to risk ratio for bulls. A potential bullish outcome for equities in general is if the Fed surprise with a less-hawkish-than expected hike. We know 75bp is mostly priced in, so if they hint at a slower rate of hikes going forward, equities might be able to cobble together a relief rally. Whilst a hawkish hike would likely present indices with swing highs and another leg lower.
CITYINDEX:JAPAN225CFDLong
by CityIndex