Nikkei Japan Stock Index (2003 Q1/Q2 shall be a bullish one!)View On Nikkei Stock Index (31 Jan 2023)
We had a quick dive and rebound.
Now 27,000 & 25,200 region will be acting as decent supports.
We shall see 28K region will be strong resistant but it will be broken UP sooner or later.
2023 Q1/Q2 shall be a bullish one.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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Thank You!
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Japan 225
Making Hay in the Land of the Rising SunLong Japan; Short US. Market conditions exist for Nikkei-225 index (“Nikkei”) to remain resilient over the next quarter relative to S&P 500
(“S&P”).
BoJ's unflinching commitment to negative rates benefits Japanese firms with a weak Yen. Meanwhile, worsening economic conditions in the US with feeble growth outlook and likely recession could send S&P lower.
This case study illustrates a spread trade between Nikkei and S&P to extract positive yield with compelling upside and limited downside. Entry at 7.011 with target at 7.402 and stop-loss at 6.787.
TAILWINDS SUPPORTING NIKKEI
In a year of crumbling global markets, Nikkei has shown remarkable resilience. YTD Nikkei is down 6% relative to 18% decline in the S&P. Three reasons why:
1. Consistent low interest rates in Japan: Loose monetary policies inflate asset prices. Thanks to a benign monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Nikkei has been and continues to benefit. The BoJ has set its short-term rates at -0.1% and long-term rates at 0%.
2. Weak and weakening Yen: YTD 2022, the Yen is down 20% relative to USD. This helps boost profits for Japanese firms. While most central banks have gone hawkish, the BoJ is resolute in keeping its monetary policy loose. A weak yen makes Japanese assets cheaper. Rising demand for real estate, and a policy framework that incentivises foreign investment boost capital inflow into Japan (e.g.: TSMC new plant in Japan).
3. Pent-up tourism demand boosting travel industry and local spending: Easing pandemic restrictions and opening of borders unlocking pent-up tourism demand is turning the outlook of tourism industry bright.
NIKKEI TECHNICALS
Since October, Nikkei has rallied 11% to its peak on November 25th and 6.5% to its current levels post correction.
The index sits gently above its 200-day moving average which perhaps serves as a support. The stochastic indicator is at 7.4 suggesting that Nikkei may be oversold and positioning for an upward correction.
HEADWINDS FACING S&P 500
While Nikkei sets to soar, S&P appears feeble. US outlook is bleak with structural shifts pointing to slowing demand and job losses. Hawkish Fed with its stance on raising rates to fend off still hot inflation is likely to tip US economy into recession.
a. Growing Recession Fears
Recession looks likely after FOMC rate hike last week. As Chair Powell remarked, while a soft landing was still possible (skirting a recession), the runway for that was becoming shorter.
Fed's stance remains firm and rightfully so. In the last eight (8) rate hike cycles, not once has the Fed eased until inflation print came lower to Fed funds rate. Expecting more rate hikes in 2023 creates downward pressure on the broader economy and the S&P.
US growth outlook for the next year is a mere 0.5%. About 1.6m more could go jobless. In a sign of growing weakness, last Friday, Goldman announced 8,000 staff retrenchment comprising 8% of its workforce.
b. Shrinking Consumer Spending
Uncertain outlook makes consumers wary. Wary consumers spend less. Forecast by Walmart point to structural weaknesses. Weak retail sales are starting to show with no relief signs in sight.
c. While King Dollar has lost some shine, it remains strong
The US Dollar is enjoying a solid performance in decades. Flight to safety amid a world faced with poly-crisis and compounded by a hawkish fed committed to controlling inflation, the dollar remains king.
A strong dollar is not necessarily good news. Rapid dollar ascent has made US goods & services less attractive hurting offshore earnings for the US firms.
TECHNICALS FAVOR NIKKEI OVER S&P
Notwithstanding the above, S&P is up since October rising nearly 20% to its peak on December 13th and 11% to current levels. However, unlike the Nikkei, the S&P is trading below its 200-day moving average which seemingly is impeding as resistance. S&P fell below its ascending channel suggesting that the rally might have lost steam.
INSIGHTS FROM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT
As seen in the CME Commitment of Traders Report, Hedge Fund positions vindicates our outlook for Nikkei and S&P. Over the last 12 weeks, hedge funds have increased their net short positions by 34% in the CME's E-mini Futures and Micro E-mini futures .
In sharp contrast, during the same period, these participants have increased their net long positions by 18% in CME Nikkei USD and Yen Futures combined.
TRADE CONSTRUCTION
Spread trades using futures require equal notional exposures across both legs.
With S&P at $3,852, one lot of CME's Micro E-Mini contract provides $19,260 in notional exposure while each CME's Nikkei USD futures contract gives $136,160 exposure.
At current levels, equalising notional value requires 7 lots of Micro E-Mini S&P futures for each lot of CME Nikkei Dollar Index Futures .
One (1) lot of long Nikkei 225 futures is required to offset against Seven (7) lots of short Micro E-Mini S&P500 futures .
Entry: 7.013
Target: 7.402, Potential Profit: $7,783
Stop Loss: 6.776, Potential Loss: $4,177
Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.86
When Nikkei outperforms S&P500, the spread trade delivers positive returns.
Outperformance could manifest in one of three ways: (a) Nikkei rises while S&P falls, or (b) Both Nikkei and S&P rise but Nikkei rises more than S&P, or (c) Both Nikkei and S&P fall but Nikkei falls lesser than S&P. If the reverse of these three scenarios occurs, then the spread trade loses money.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
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Buying Nikkei at previous resistance.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 26840 (stop at 26560)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 27630 and 27820
Resistance: 27400 / 27820 / 28505
Support: 27060 / 26720 / 26235
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Nikkei to find support at previous support?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 26030 (stop at 25770)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 26780 and 27060
Resistance: 26720 / 27060 / 27400
Support: 26235 / 25615 / 24830
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nikkei 225 Index (NI225): Classic Bullish Reversal
It looks like Nikkei is finally ready to start a correctional movement.
After a text of a key daily structure support, the price formed a double bottom and head & shoulders pattern.
Their neckline was broken with a high momentum bullish candle yesterday.
Bullish pressure will continue.
Goals: 27270 / 28050
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NIKKEI 225 CFD BULLISH PATTERNNIKKEI has broken the resistance e of the triangle pattern on the daily graph, signaling a possible bullish movement with possible targets of 26380 and 26530. If this pattern does not get confirmed, a possible support might form at 25956.
MACD histogram is above 0 and RSI is above its 50 neutral line, both confirming the possibility of bullish trend.
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Nikkei Futures ( NKD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish continuationTitle: Nikkei Futures ( NKD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish continuation
Type: Bearish continuation
Resistance: 26555
Pivot: 25960
Support: 25610
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for NKD1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 25610, where the previous swing low is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 25960, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
The BoJ meeting playbook - navigating big moves in the JPYIt’s been many years since Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings posed significant risks for traders, but this Wednesday’s BoJ meeting holds the potential for significant volatility in USDJPY, as well as the JPY crosses, and JPN225.
The risk manager
The job of the trader is to manage risk, as well as achieving correct position sizing for every trade.
So, when I look at the explosion in USDJPY 1-week (options) implied volatility – essentially the markets' expectation of movement in USDJPY through the week – we see this at 23%, and the highest levels since March 2020. For context, this equates to expectations of around 350 pips, or a near 3% move this week in USDJPY (higher or lower). Much of this move could be realised on the day from headlines from the BoJ meeting and what the market hears relative to positioning and expectations.
When we see such high expectations of movement, the question traders need to ask is whether they should reduce or even exit exposures before the event. In some cases when there is a strong skew in the potential outcomes and a high enough conviction, whether to even take a position over the event – in special situations these events can offer high/risk reward outcomes.
We assess that here.
Key times to be aware of – Headlines and the outcome from the meeting will come out on Wednesday, likely in the Asia session afternoon. Unlike most data points there is no set time, but we should hear the outcome between 13:00 and 15:00 AEDT.
What is expected from the BoJ?
Last week we saw an article in the Japanese publication Yomiuri Shimbun that the BoJ was reviewing the negative effects of its current monetary policy regime – despite only changing its policy setting on 20 December, where they lifted the ceiling (or cap) by which the 10yr JGB yield (Japanese govt bond) can trade to 0.50%, the market swiftly took this to mean another key change was incoming.
The fact the BoJ had to ramp up its daily bond buying to a record amount to defend the 0.50% cap, suggests their policy setting is still highly dysfunctional, and with inflation pushing 4% its current yield curve control (YCC) program is on borrowed time.
While we can look at the possible outcomes, and assign a probability and potential market reaction, I think in all cases the BoJ will try its utmost to say the action is designed to address an increasingly dysfunctional market and should not be seen as a tightening of policy. The market will likely look through this and ignore their pleas.
Given 10yr JGBs currently trade above 0.5% (or 50bp), 10yr swap rates trade above 90bp and the JPY has had a one-way move of late, one assumes the market is skewed and part positioned to an outcome that the BoJ abolish its YCC program. This plays into my back-of-the-envelope playbook.
Possible actions:
• The BoJ again widens the yield band to -/+0.75% while continuing to buy incredible amounts of JGBs in its daily operations to support the 0.75% yield cap - an action that doesn’t make a huge amount of sense as it would not resolve the dysfunctional market and would need to be altered again – likely promotes a 2%+ rally on the day in USDJPY
• The BoJ widens the yield band out to -/+1% while continuing to buy JGBs to support the cap – tactically this makes more sense, but an action that could cause a 1%+ rally in USDJPY
• The BoJ leave policy unchanged but signals a change is coming – this would surprise and cause a 2.5%+ rally on the day in USDJPY
• Completely terminates its YCC program – the market is leaning this way but would still likely cause a 3%+ sell-off on the day in USDJPY
• Shifts the YCC target which is currently capping 10yr JGBs at 0.50% and move to target the 5yr JGB instead – it's hard to create a clear framework on this policy change, but an action that likely leads to the most subdued reaction seen in USDJPY
For those new to BoJ policy and bond markets this event risk does require some research. As always, moves in markets come from current market positioning, expectations, and the actual outcome.
For me, simplistically, given expectations are now elevated for an end to YCC and its yield cap – hence, a lack of action would be a big surprise and cause a significant move higher in USDJPY. If the BoJ decides to remove its YCC cap, then despite positioning I think there is further to go, and it could have huge implications for the JPY and see USDJPY smashed as traders front-run the idea of massive capital repatriation from Japanese pension funds eyeing more compelling returns in their domestic bond markets.
The BoJ meeting holds the potential for bug moves not just in the JPY and JPN225 but could influence the USD across other G10 pairs too – be aware of the event and manage the risks accordingly.
JAPAN225 12th JANUARY 2023The trendline is the most common part of technical analysis in forex trading. But when compared to support and resistance, trendlines are less commonly used. The trendline should be more significant due to the number of touches.
Trendlines are very suitable in combination with several technical indicators, one of which is the Money Flow Index (MFI).
MFI is an indicator used to measure money inflows and outflows, both from local and foreign investors in the stock. Since MFI measures money inflows and outflows, it also involves volume in its indicator.
In other words, MFI also measures market interest in a stock (inflows and outflows are closely related to market interest). That's why MFI also includes volume in its indicator.
How to read the MFI indicator is very easy, almost the same as how to read other indicators, such as the relative strength index, stochastic, and others.
MFI has 2 main boundary lines, the overbought and oversold lines. The overbought line is at 80 and above. The oversold line is at 20 and below (note the arrow above). This means that if the MFI indicator is at 80 and above, there has been too much money inflow from investors, which causes the stock price to rise, thus causing overbought.
Meanwhile, if the MFI indicator is at 20 and below, there is too much money outflow from investors, which causes the stock price to fall, causing oversold.
Buying Nikkei at current lows.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 25620 (stop at 25400)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Previous support located at 25616.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 26245 and 26430
Resistance: 25795 / 26430 / 26830
Support: 25060 / 24500 / 24120
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Selling Nikkei into current swing highs.K225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 26635 (stop at 26855)
Buying pressure from 25931 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 26015 and 25795
Resistance: 26435 / 26830 / 27150
Support: 25795 / 25060 / 24120
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
$JPN225: Nikkei setting up for a rallyAs China reopening looms, maybe we get a boost too Japanese equities from here onwards...There's some interesting names, like Casio, whose line of luxury and more fashionable watches has been successful as of late. Definitely worth looking into it more. The index futures chart has a potential bottom signal in the short term at least, and with news of COVID zero being phased out, we might get the pop that is needed to kick start a Santa Rally here. Entries and stops and take profit levels on chart.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Nikkei225 short term bullish?The Daily RSI is pretty low
BoJ didn’t raise the interest rates
The market is trading withing range for over six months now.
With low Christmas volatility, the buyers might move the market to 27100- ish.
This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky, always do your own analisys before opening the trade.
Buying Nikkei at previous support.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Buy at 27510 (stop at 27290)
Selling pressure from 28166 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned.
The current move lower is expected to continue.
The medium term bias remains bullish.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 28030 and 28460
Resistance: 28460 / 29235 / 30220
Support: 27425 / 26700 / 26470
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Selling Nikkei into a rally.NIK225 - 20h expiry - We look to Sell at 28080 (stop at 28260)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27565 and 27110
Resistance: 27925 / 28425 / 29240
Support: 27520 / 27110 / 26610
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 NIKKEI225 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.16%, up 2.05% from last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 38th percentile,
while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.82% movement
Bearish: 1.74% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 22.4% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 28309
BOT: 27170
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
73% probability we are going to touch previous high 27955
27% probability we are going to touch previous low 27419
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 64% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 21% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates 7% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Selling Nikkei at swing high.NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 27925 (stop at 28140)
Buying pressure from 27410 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27415 and 27110
Resistance: 27925 / 28425 / 29240
Support: 27515 / 27110 / 26610
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Nasdaq going back to 1989 - Japanese Nikkei 225Sometimes reality is clear in front of everyone you just need to rewind and take a look at history.
Cycles are like human habits they do not change unless the environment around them changes.
Enjoy the good times while they last, we have only months left.
We Have Learned Nothing.
Nikkei to fakeout?NIK225 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 28455 (stop at 28650)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
Previous resistance located at 28339. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27895 and 27515
Resistance: 28425 / 29240 / 30175
Support: 27925 / 27515 / 27110
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Buying Nikkei in a bullish channel.NIK225 - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 27675 (stop at 27360)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 28580 and 29240
Resistance: 28360 / 29240 / 30175
Support: 27370 / 26930 / 26385
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.