Shorting Nifty 50: Potential Reversal Signal at Bearish OBHey Traders,
Thinking of taking a short ride on the Nifty 50? Here's why I'm feeling bearish about it. So, there's this Bearish Orderblock (OB) lurking around 0.30% above the current price, hinting at a market reversal. But wait, there's more! The Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) is also signaling some downward action, possibly even before we hit that OB.
Now, let's talk strategy. Our entry point is 22343.70, a sweet spot where we expect things to turn south. And to play it safe, we've got our stop-loss (SL) set at 22637.55. As for the take-profit (TP) targets, we're aiming for TP1 at 21710.20 and TP2 at 20983.10. Feel free to cash out earlier if you're happy with your gains, and don't forget to trail that stop-loss.
Oh, and here's a pro tip: keep some cash handy for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) around 22526.60. This way, we're ready to tweak our position if the market throws us a curveball.
Our decision to enter the market is also influenced by Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the presence of Golden Pockets, reinforcing the validity of our trade setup.
In summary, the confluence of technical signals, including Bearish OB, Bearish FVG, and Fibonacci retracement, strengthens the rationale behind shorting the Nifty 50. By adhering to prudent risk management principles and remaining adaptable to market movements, we aim to capitalize on potential downside opportunities effectively.
Note important thing: It could be that the market opens at monday and the market goes up, so we will wait a bit.
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Nifty-signals
NIFTY did a MACD Bearish Cross. 1-month correction very likely.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) gave us an excellent bottom buy opportunity on November 03 2023 (see chart below) easily hitting our 21000 target and transitioning into a longer term Channel Up:
Right now the index is coming off the strongest 1W red week since October 23 2023, the first pull-back after a series of 4 straight green weeks. This week will complete a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame, the first such formation since September 25 2023 and before that, December 26 2022.
Naturally this is a technically bearish pattern and being so rare suggests that it shouldn't be taken lightly, even though we have been on this Channel Up since June 2022. More specifically, those 2 MACD Bearish Cross occurences delivered monthly corrections of -6.75% and -7.45% respectively, so an average of -7% pull-back. Both also hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Channel's last Higher Low.
As a result, assuming a minimum correction of -6.75%, we are now turning bearish on NIFTY, targeting 21100. That may make contact, or at least come very close to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
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NIFTY Hit our long-term target. What's next?The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) gave us an excellent bottom buy opportunity last time we looked into it (November 03) and hit on Thursday our 21000 target (see chart below):
We've been receiving a lot of messages on what's next for this index. Well if we turn the Channel Up into the logarithmic scale, we can see that the price is almost on its Top (Higher Highs trend-line). The 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross and the 1D RSI is pulling back aggressively after being extremely overbought at 85.00.
Technically this is a sell signal and even though the shortest decline within the 18-month Channel Up has been -3.74%, we see more similarities with the September 13 2022 top, hence we will aim for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 20500, initially at least, where contact should be made with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). If the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), we will short again and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 19300, which will also be a -11.03% decline, similar with the strongest one on March 20 2023.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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