levels to watch out I’ve been bearish on the market since last year, constantly warning about an impending correction. While it seems we've moved past the initial anxiety phase, retail investors are still in denial. Many are clinging to losing positions, hoping for a rally to help them average out their losses. A small 100-200 point uptick might bring temporary relief, but the real panic session is yet to come.
When that moment arrives, it’s likely to trigger a bloodbath, with the market potentially correcting deeper than anticipated, possibly even dipping below the 19,000 mark. That level, in my view, would represent an ideal opportunity for long-term accumulation. Once that floor is reached and the market stabilizes, it could set the stage for a new bull run that breaks through previous highs.
NIFTY
Review and plan for 4th March 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 04.03.2025Monday’s session started on a positive note with a gap-up, as Nifty touched a high of 22,261.55 but failed to sustain and dropped to 22,004.70. It later recovered slightly, closing at 22,119.30, losing just 5 points from the previous close. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains negative, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is now in oversold territory.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Support: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 22,508.40 - 22,625.30
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 22,720.30 - 23,049.95
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 23,222 - 23,807.30
Outlook
Nifty has declined 4,272 points (16%) in the last 5 months from its All-Time High of 26,277. The Daily 50 SMA is now oversold, which could lead to some buying near the 22,000 psychological level. However, multiple gaps and fresh supply zones on the Daily and Weekly charts indicate that any upside move is likely to face selling pressure at higher levels. A Sell-on-Rise strategy remains favorable until a strong reversal is confirmed.
Correction Done?? Some Green candles coming. Here is a quick update.
Watch out this graph. here are few points which is clearly highlighting some upcoming moves in Nifty.
1. Weekly MA 100 is on point to support.
2. as per volume traded, 22000 is strong support.
3. Yellow trend line showing weekly movement. giving hope for some recovery in upcoming days.
4. Please watch out for this high volume area. if it breaks. we fall down to 21600-21000.
Please always use stop loss and trade with your knowledge.
levels to watch I had anticipated a top and currently hold a short position on the index and most of the 50 stocks at 25,200. The market is now approaching the first target of 21,800. Expect a minor bounce in the short term, likely to trap retail investors. However, if the index closes below 21,800, the downward move is likely to accelerate, targeting 19,200.
Additionally, a deeper correction toward 16,900 remains a possibility and should not be ruled out at this stage.
Review and plan for 3td March 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Market Still Searching for Bottom. Nifty is still searching for a firm bottom from where it can form a base and launch a comeback. RSI of Nifty on Weekly chart is at 34.15. The weekly RSI was this low only during COVID fall when market RSI had gone below the level of 20. Most of the levels are being broken down week after week and day after day.
Now Nifty supports are at 22054 and 21813. 21813 seems to be a very strong support if this support is broken we have only 21281 support which was the Election day low where there was a fear of regime change. If 21281 is broken then 20507 and 19706 Father line of weekly Chart.
Daily RSI is at 22.4 which indicates Nifty might be near the oversold zone. Upside resistances for Nifty are at 22588, 22743. Crossing these 2 hurdles will bring in a formidable Fibonacci resistance of 23214 and 23334 (Mother line of Weekly chart) into picture. Bulls can make a come back only after we get a closing above 23334.
Amongst all these negative indications Nifty 50 PE valuations are at 19.7. The 10 year Average PE of Nifty 50 is at 23.5. Which means lot of stocks are trading below their 10 year Price to Earning average and value buyers can see an opportunity here for long term investment and they can start collecting fallen stars.
Daily Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Review and plan for 28th February 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Bajaj FInance The stock is the strongest among the nifty 50 stocks. It is making newer highs; it broke the symmetrical triangle and has gone up on good volumes
Long term we can expect 12000 levels
short term 9200 cannot be ruled out.
A buy on dip strategy needs to be followed on this. A test of the triangle can be a buying opportunity.
SRF looking to break out Nifty has been on a downtrend for a long time, but some stocks are strong as they are going against the trend.
SRF is one of those stocks. It is relatively strong as Nifty is falling , the stock is building the base. Today's volumes were good. The stock needs to move above 2880-2920 range. IF that happens then 3100-3200 range awaits.
I don't have any idea how it will react to tariff news tomorrow but if it can weather the storm them a good up move awaits.
Nifty Support or Fall From HereWe can only draw what the chart reveals—so keep drawing.
I want to share something simple yet valuable. I’ve discovered three key secrets of the market:
1 Technical Analysis
2 ############
3 Emotion Management
What are your thoughts on point "2" ? Share in the comments!
Based on my chart analysis, I anticipate 21,750 in the upcoming week.
This is not a recommendation—just an educational note to leave proof that ZZ drawing works. Of course, I could be wrong because the MARKET is supreme.
Thank you!
Long Term Nifty Outlook Based on 2023 Fibonacci levels. Based on the Fibonacci levels plotted from the point from where rally started on 2023 towards the peak and reverse Fibonacci from the same 2 points. We can make the following deduction:
Major Supports for Nifty can be around: 22500, 22169, 21845. Negative scenario as of now seems to be near 21227, 20507, Father line support of Weekly chart 19710. Worst case scenario 19170 or 18769. (Possible but improbable) But you never say never.
Major Resistances for Nifty will be at: 23214 Fibonacci level resistance, 23351 Weekly Mother line resistance, 24921 and then previous peak at 26277. Best case scenario for Nifty to make a come back with a bang and show us a new high near 28000+ levels (Possible but improbable) But your never say never.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Review and plan for 27th February 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 25.02.2025Monday’s session saw Nifty opening with a massive gap-down of over 185 points at 22,609.35, attempting a minor recovery to 22,668.05, but eventually slipping to a low of 22,518.80. It closed at 22,553.35, losing 242 points from the previous close. Both the Weekly (50 SMA) and Daily Trend (50 SMA) are now negative, signaling weak market sentiment.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Support: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Minor Supply/Resistance Zone (5m): 22,605.55 - 22,617.80
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 22,763.20 - 22,812.20
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (75m): 23,176.15 - 23,235.50
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (75m): 23,248.45 - 23,301.75
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (125m): 23,316.30 - 23,409.65
Outlook
With Nifty breaking and closing below the key 22,600 - 22,800 support zone, bulls are struggling to hold ground. This breakdown confirms a Lower High - Lower Low pattern, reinforcing a Sell-on-Rise strategy. Unless Nifty reclaims 22,800 decisively, expect further downside pressure.
Review and plan for 25th February 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Review and plan for 24th February 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Reverse Hammer in Nifty (confirmation pending) sign of reversal.A reverse hammer pattern is formed in Nifty in the weekly charts. Usually This kind of formation signals trend reversal. For reversal to be successful we need a closing next week above 23044. If this happens investors and traders can breathe a sigh of relief from the on going market correction.
If the reversal is not successful we might see Nifty fall further to 22427 or in the worst case scenario the next supports will be at 22132, 21718 or even 21302 as of now. On the positive side if the reversal is successful we may see Nifty rising to 23383, 23819, 24205 or close to 25K if we get a weekly or monthly close above 23044 level.
Another point which goes in favour of Nifty is that weekly RSI currently is at 39.39. Last time the weekly RSI was this low was in March 23 when it was 38.80. After this point we saw a rally in Nifty which lasted almost 18/19 months. So a further small dip post which we can see a come back in Nifty as per the Relative Strength Index.
Next week and the week after than will be critical for reversal of Nifty. Shadow of the candle neutral to positive this week. We might be near a temporary bottom (confirmation pending).
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Levels to watch out Based on the intrinsic value analysis, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. (M&M) is currently overvalued. With an intrinsic value of 1,633 per share and a market price of 2,665, the stock is trading at a premium of about 39%. This suggests that M&M does not present an attractive investment opportunity at these levels.
Given my outlook for the Nifty index to correct in the coming weeks, I believe many stocks, including M&M, are overvalued and may face downward pressure. Investors who chase these stocks by buying into strength or during market dips could be setting themselves up for a bear trap.
Instead, I plan to begin accumulating M&M shares in the range of 1,700 to 2,100. I see potential for new highs in the long-term, but only after the stock has corrected to more reasonable levels.
#NIFTY higher time frame update 6M close was one of the worst for bulls & now we are seeing good follow through on price as well.
it is very much possible we don't have full retracement as I am expecting but I am overall bearish for next couple of years, price have been flowing below yearly pivot point, I usually target S1 in that matter which is lining up with 50% retracement, there is a possibility of cypher I am watching here that will push price back up for a double top kind of structure.
We are here to speculate not predict what will be the outcome. all we can do is to have a plan & act on it when & if levels are hit. will try to keep this idea updated in next few months as price develops further
Review and plan for 21st February 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Few stocks analysed.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT