Nifty Medium to Long Term Outlook. Nifty on a weekly chart seems to be in the consolidation mode. With important geopolitical events that happened around the globe and India Nifty is trying to find a firm footing from where it can launch ahead. The events like Ukraine and Russia conflict, Israel and Iran++ conflict, Indian election results, Haryana assembly elections, US elections proved very volatile for the market. Upcoming events like China stimulus package and Maharashtra Elections will also be key for the direction of Nifty while moving ahead.
Best case Scenario for Nifty right now following the Parallel channel seems to be 27796 towards the mid and end of First quarter of 2025. (We would have to be a pure optimist to think it can reach close to 28K in the next 5/6 months but you never say never).
Median Scenario can keep Nifty range bound and we might find it exactly in the zone that it is right now that is between 24K and 25K.
Worst case scenario for Nifty seems to be between 20 and 21K as of now.(This is a less likely scenario but you never say never).
Major Support Levels for Nifty are at: 23816, 23211(Major Support 50 Weeks EMA-Mother Line), 22711, 21813, 21343 and 20858 (Channel Bottom Support).
Major Resistance levels for Nifty are : 24589, 25241, 25796, 26277, 27120 and 27796 (Channel Top Resistance).
To learn more about Parallel Channels and Mother, Father and Small Child theory read my book. The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation Available on Amazon in paper back and Kindle version. The book is now available on Google Play books in E-version too.
Disclaimer: The views are personal and request you not to take positions based on the above data. The chart and the levels given in the message are purely for the purpose of education.
Nifty50
Sectoral Scanner study 8 Nov for the upcoming 46th Week 11 NovSectoral Analysis vis-à-vis the Nifty 50
Observations of the sectors and example of individual sectoral analysis with stock screening.
and Bullish and Bearish picks amongst them.
Along with a couple of homework to be submitted before the next session.
Nifty unable to break Hourly Channel top corrects. Nifty had reached channel top of the downward channel on hourly chart and was clearly not able to defeat it as evident in the chart and corrected wiping all the gains from yesterday's trump rally. Can it make one more effort to claim the channel top and defeat it is the question. Supports for Nifty remain at 24179, 24073 and 23816. Below 23816 the bears will feel empowered and can drag Nifty down to 23500 or 23200 levels. Resistances on the upper side remain at 24262 (Mother line resistance of 50 hours EMA), 24504, 24559 and finally father line of 200 Hour EMA at 24650.
This will remain a volatile week with major shift in global policies and realignments, FED Rate decision and other Geopolitical events. Keep an eye on situation in the Middle East and Ukraine, Russia front. Positive news will have again empower bears and give another rally like Trump rally seen yesterday. Shadow of the candles is Neutral to negative again. Bond yield, Gold, Silver, Dollar index, Crude can remain volatile while NASDAQ and Dow are in the Optimistic curve. November month will in general will remain volatile and next one week will decide the fate of Indian markets. With FIIs still on selling side and DII on buying side looks like things will remain topsy turvy for Indian markets.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only and views are personal. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Most Global Markets Welcome Donald TrumpMarkets breathed a sigh of relief it seems on the victory of Donald Trump and rallied crossing important trend line hurdle. Now 2 important resistance remain to be conquered before Bulls can claim victory over bears. The next likely resistance levels that bulls will face will be at 24537 and Mother line resistance at 24748. (50 days EMA). Once that is crossed the next likely resistance will be at 25000 and 25217. Supports for Nifty on the lower side seem to be at 24333, 24170, 23816 and finally Father line at 23519 (200 days EMA). Below 23519 in unlikely circumstances the Nifty will fall again in Bear clutch and bear can potentially drag it down to 23201 or 22820. (currently this looks unlikely). Shadow of the candle right now is neutral to positive.
Nifty Set for an Uptrend Soon..?The NIFTY index has been experiencing a consistent downtrend over the past month. Throughout this period, it has encountered rejection from the established trendline approximately five to six times, indicating strong resistance at that level. For NIFTY to initiate a reversal and shift to an upward trend, it is essential for the index to not only break through the trendline but also to maintain a position above it for a sustained period.
Moreover, the level identified as 24150 is not only a crucial support level but also serves as a significant support range that has been tested during July and August. Therefore, if the price can hold steady at the 24150 level for a few more days, combined with a decrease in selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), we may witness the formation of a new upward trend. This convergence of factors could provide the necessary momentum for a trend reversal in NIFTY.
NIFTY50 || RSI positive divergence As mention in my previous idea, the recent rally was indeed a 'Dead Cat Bounce' as NIFTY50 has experienced another significant drop. However, examining the charts above reveals positive RSI divergence in both the 2-hour timeframe (TF) and the daily timeframe (DTF), with NIFTY reversing from a marked support zone.
For the next bull run to be confirmed, NIFTY should hold above today’s low and meet the following two criteria:
1. The index begins trading above the 20 EMA band.
2. The RSI surpasses the 70 mark.
This setup could indicate a more sustainable upward trend if both conditions are fulfilled.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and it’s essential to perform your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Essential principles for traders:
1. Be Disciplined, Avoid FOMO: Maintain a disciplined approach to avoid impulsive decisions based on the "fear of missing out" (FOMO), which can lead to risky trades.
2. Risk and Reward Management: Always assess potential rewards relative to risks before entering a trade. Proper risk management ensures long-term success by limiting losses on any single trade.
3. Follow Stop Losses: Calculate and set a stop loss for every trade to protect against significant losses. Make it a habit to adhere to it without exception, even if the market seems to be in your favor.
4. Journal Your Trades: Maintain a trading journal to track decisions, wins, and losses. Analyzing past trades can help improve future strategies and identify patterns in behavior or biases.
5. Master One Strategy Before Expanding: It’s beneficial to focus on mastering a single trading strategy before exploring others. Once consistent, you can broaden your approach to diversify risk and opportunities.
6. Control Emotions: Emotions, especially greed and fear, can cloud judgment. Cultivating a mindset that balances confidence and caution is key to maintaining objectivity.
APOLLOHOSPITAL 240 MINS TIME FRAME - MY VIEW ONLYThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
Thanks for your support
Tradelikemee Academy
Saanjayy KG
Mother Line, Trend line and other resistnace up ahead to watch.Before Nifty can fly further there are some important resistances to be crossed in the near by zone are 24368 that is the high of Muhurat day, Mother line resistance at 24391, Trend line resistance near 24400. After closing above 24400, Nifty can quickly reach 24505 or even 24601 in a short time. Supports for Nifty are at 24280, 24239, 24172 and 24142. Final support for Nifty is in the range of 24069 below which bears can create further havoc. Shadow of the candle is slightly positive but FII's deep selling is making the investors vary and fearful this does not include DIIs as of now but below certain level even they can start to give in if things do not improve. Shadow of the candle is slightly positive.
Performance of U.S. and Indian Indices (2012-2024)Comparative Performance of U.S. and Indian Indices with INR Adjustment for period (2012-2024)
This TradingView chart displays a comparative performance analysis of multiple indices and assets from 2012 to 2024, measured in a mixed percentage scale. The assets include:
1. **QQQ in INR** (QQQ * USDINR): Represented in green, this line shows the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) adjusted to Indian Rupees, which has the highest performance, growing approximately +1,267.50% over the period.
2. **Nifty Midcap 150** (NIFTYMIDCAP150): In pink, this index tracks India's mid-cap companies, showing a significant growth of +883.72%.
3. **QQQ**: Shown in cyan, this is the U.S. QQQ ETF in its original USD form, with a return of +705.77%.
4. **S&P 500 in INR** (SPX * USDINR): In blue, this line represents the S&P 500 index adjusted to INR, showing an increase of +641.27%.
5. **Nifty Junior (NIFTYJR)**: Represented in purple, this index tracks India's next 50 large-cap stocks after the Nifty 50, showing a gain of +617.46%.
6. **Nifty 50** (NIFTY): In teal, this represents India’s benchmark index, which has grown by +423.78%.
7. **S&P 500** (SPX): In red, this represents the S&P 500 in its original USD form, with a performance of +336.51%.
8. **Gold in INR** (GOLD * USDINR): Represented in red, this shows the price of gold adjusted to INR, growing by +167.45%.
The chart indicates that, over this time period, U.S. tech (represented by QQQ) outperformed Indian indices and other asset classes when adjusted to INR, showcasing a strong relative growth in technology-focused U.S. equities compared to Indian mid-cap, large-cap indices, and gold. The Nifty Midcap 150 also exhibited impressive growth, especially when compared to other Indian and U.S. large-cap indices. Gold, while traditionally considered a safe asset, showed the least growth in comparison to equity indices.
This chart offers a clear view of the benefits of sectoral diversification, currency-adjusted performance, and asset allocation across different geographic regions.
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 4th-8th Nov 2024Last week, the Nifty 50 index concluded at 24,304 points, marking a 125-point surge from the previous week's close. It reached a high of 24,498 and a low of 24,134. As anticipated, the index successfully tested the 24,500 resistance level before settling at its current position.
With the India VIX index indicating an upward trend, the Nifty 50 is expected to trade within a broader range of 24,900 to 23,700 in the coming week. A breach of these levels could trigger significant market volatility. The upcoming US elections on November 5th are likely to intensify the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
I'm closely monitoring the 23,511 level (DEMA200) as a potential entry point for NiftyBees. However, it remains to be seen if this opportunity materializes.
S&P 500's Weekly Performance and Outlook
The S&P 500 index ended the week at 5,728 points, approximately 80 points lower than the previous week's close. It touched a high of 5,850 and a low of 5,702. This week, the index found support at the DEMA50 level. If it dips below 5,702 next week, it could test support levels at 5,637, 5,585, and 5,400, which would have negative implications for global markets.
To resume its upward trajectory, the S&P 500 needs to close above 5,700 on consecutive days. This could propel it towards the 5,821, 5,868, and 5,899 levels.
FIIs continue to weigh in on Nifty Index. Unblemished sell off from FIIs has dampened the festive mood of investors in the Indian markets. Looks like there was not much support for DIIs today as Retails investors might be busy with Diwali festival so FIIs today had a clear upper hand. There are signs of bottom formation and Higher high higher low pattern is formed on Nifty. Unless we have a closing below 24172 or 24069 levels, I think the things will hold. If we get a closing below 24K bears and FIIs can push Nifty further down to 23.8K or 23.2K levels. Thus supports for Nifty are at 24172, 24142 and 24069 levels. Resistances for Nifty remains at 24242, 24370, 24395, 24505, 24601, 24702 and finally 24811 levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
50 Hours EMA and Trendline resistance again stop Nifty progressAgain The Mother line (50 Hours Resistance) and trendline resistance threw spanner in the growth effort of Nifty. Till Mother line and trendline thereafter is not crossed we can't reach Father line resistance which is at 24853. Supports for nifty remain at 24307, 24173 and finally 24073. Below 24073 Nifty will become very weak and bears will spell further doom. Resistances on the upper side remain at the zone between 24448 and 24513 (tough to conquer Mother line and Trend line resistance respectively), 24613, 24730 and 24853. Above 24853 the critical resistance will be the zone between 24860 and 24971. Bulls can come back into the game after the close above 24971. Above 24971 Bulls can create an upward rampage. Tomorrow is a very critical day where Nifty going into November needs to close above 24513 or atleast above 24448. Signs are looking little difficult for Nifty with a negative shadow of the candle but festive buying can bring back the bulls in action hopefully. .
To know more about Techno-Funda investment, Mother-Father and Small Child theory, Happy Candles Number read my book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation. Gift it to yourself or your special ones this festive season.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
U shape recovery on cards for Nifty. There is a chance of U shape recovery on Nifty if it is able to beat Mother and father line resistance. Today we saw a swift recovery by Nifty after making a low of 24140. Nifty closed at 24466. That was a recovery of 326 points which is quite remarkable. The only negative point was the close which is 2 points below the Mother line resistance of 50 Hours EMA at 24468. With this close if we can get an opening above Mother line tomorrow and if Nifty sustains above it we can see further swift recovery till Father line of 200 Hours EMA which is at 24887 with a trend line resistance at 24613.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 24468 (Strong Mother Line Resistance) , 24613(Strong Trend Line Resistance), 24887 (strong Father Line resistance), 24917 and 25204. Above 25204 Bulls can come back aggressively.
Nifty Supports Remain at: 24349, 24173 and 24073. Below 24073 Bears can get very aggressive in dragging the market downwards.
To know more about Mother, Father and Small child theory and it's correlation to stock price and 50 and 200 days EMA read my book. The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available on Amazon in Paperback and Kindle version.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Technical bounce in Nifty today, recovery can be a long processToday what we saw can be called as technical recovery by Nifty in the process of bottom formation. Actual recovery can still be a long process. Bulls can be back inn business only if we get a closing above mother line of 50 days EMA that is at 24898. 24898 is a critical level because mid channel resistance for the current parallel channel as well as Mother line. Whether Nifty can weather the storm and move ahead is only a question which time will answer in the short term. Long term investors can see current situation as partial entry zone for large and mid-caps which have given a good result this quarter or are giving a good result.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 23865, 23684, 23464 (Father line Strong support 200 days EMA) and 23626 (Strong Parallel Channel Bottom Support).
Resistances for Nifty Remain at: 24492 (Today's high and strong Trend line resistance), 24679, 24898 (Strong Mid-channel and Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA), 25221 and 25623.
Strong momentum and positive action has potential to take Nifty back to 26K+ levels. As on date even after strong resilience shown by Nifty FIIs are still on the selling side as they were net sellers of Equity worth Rs.3228 Crores. DIIs and Retail investors have been on the buying side at every dip. This is what is not allowing the Nifty to fall currently beyond 200 days EMA. Let us see who given in first. Very interesting tussle going on between FIIs and DIIs + Retail investors combination. Shadow of the candle for tomorrow is neutral to slightly positive but it is hanging by a thin thread. (Approach for long term should be cautious but positive. Approach for short term is still very cautious as we are not out of deep waters).
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 28-1st Nov 2024. Nifty Nosedives! This week, the Nifty took a dramatic plunge, closing a hefty 700 points down from the previous week at 24,180. The bulls fought valiantly, pushing the index to a high of 24,978, but the bears ultimately prevailed, dragging it down to a low of 24,073.
Key Levels Breached and Tested: My predicted range for the Nifty this week (25,550 - 24,350) was unfortunately shattered on the downside. Furthermore, the critical support level of WEMA21 was breached for the first time since October 2023, a potentially bearish sign.
Is a Short Squeeze Brewing? With many retail investors now anticipating a continued downtrend, a counter-intuitive uptrend might be on the horizon. This could be a strategic move by the bulls to trap those who are shorting the market.
Next Week's Crucial Levels: Buckle up, because next week is a pivotal one for the Nifty. If the index can defend the crucial support zone of 23,900-24,000, we might witness a surge testing resistance levels around 24,500-24,600. However, a breach below 23,900 opens the door for a further decline towards 23,600 and even the psychologically important 200-day moving average (23,500). This is where I, for one, will be getting "greedy" by considering adding Niftybees and some fundamentally strong stocks with favorable risk-reward ratios. Remember the age-old wisdom: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." The time to be greedy for value might be just around the corner!
S&P 500: Holding the Line (for Now): Across the pond, the S&P 500 failed to surpass its previous week's high of 5,878 and experienced a correction of more than 1.5% from its weekly peak of 5,866. The silver lining? It managed to hold above the crucial support level of 5,762. The upcoming week will be critical as well. If the S&P 500 can maintain a position above 5,863, it could potentially surge towards a significant Fibonacci retracement level of 6,013, which could also provide a positive tailwind for the Indian markets. However, a dip below 5,700 could trigger a correction ranging from 1.6% to 3.3%, potentially dragging the Nifty down with it.
Wishing everyone a very happy & prosperous Diwali. Enjoy
NIFTY 50 ---- MAYBE NIFTY support level looks between 24000-23890 and also RSI of NIFTY is close to oversold.
Expectation for next week, we may see more dip till support level which will push RSI to oversold zone, and from there bounce back is expected.
If you see the history of NIFTY 50, it has never stayed in oversold zone for more than 2-3 days, only if we have global crisis.
This is just a study based on technical indicators and experience, My study can go wrong.
Hope for the Best.
Today we received first signals of bottom formation. Today Nifty gave first indication of bottom formation after a long time. Will the bottom hold is a question which only time can answer. Nifty staged good recovery of 107 points from the day's low that was a positive sign. MMI (Market mood index) for Nifty on Ticker tape shows that Nifty is currently in the Extreme Fear zone of 26.5. Usually good money is made when you buy in extreme fear zone and sell in extreme greed zone. The supports for Nifty for the next week remain at 24102, 24703, 23366 and 22821. Resistances for Nifty for the next week remain at 24408, 24547, 24714, 24996 and 25338. Above 25338 Bulls can come back into full action mode and can take Nifty towards 25656 in the best case scenario.
The Critical Mother and Father resistance for the hourly chart are at 24547 and 24966. Critical Mid channel resistance is near 25338. Channel Bottom support is in the zone of 24102 to 24072.
To know more about Parallel channel and my Mother, Father and Small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in Kindle and Paper back version. You will learn a lot about Fundamental analysis, Candle Sticks analytics, Profit booking and behavioural finance from the book. The book is currently one of the highest rated books on Amazon in the financial analysis and strategy category. I assure you it will be worth every money spent.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY Buy opportunity on solid cyclical patterns.We last looked into the Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) on September 05 (see chart below), when we got an excellent buy on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that quickly hit our 25700 Target:
As you can see, our trading approach was based on the recurring technical patterns (Megaphones) since July 2023. Even though the current wide price action doesn't fit the former Megaphone patters, we can still call for a bottom soon as, not only is the price approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also the 1D RSI is almost on the same oversold (below 30.00) level as 1 year ago (October 26 2023)!
In fact the pattern of September - October 2023 looks very similar to Sep - Oct 2024. The risk of buying here is low while the reward is high, making for a very appealing R/R ratio. As a result, we turn long again, targeting 27400 (+15.67% rise as the previous bullish break-out legs).
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Another day another weak show by Nifty. Nifty again could not sustain the highs of the day and ended up in the negative. Nifty on an hourly chart is spiralling downwards in a downward parallel channel. Every bounce even if it is a small one is seen as an opportunity to sell specially by the FIIs. Even today the signs or signals for bottom formation are not visible.
To know more about a parallel channel do read my book the Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
One thing is for sure upward curve also starts out of nowhere just like the downward slide started out of nowhere so there is no need to sweat about it as the Macros for India remain healthy. Dollar index gaining more and more strength is a sign of concern however. Once the Dollar starts to relent we will see a better performance from many sectors. RSI of Dollar index is just starting to touch the overbought zone.
Nifty supports remain at 24370, 24149, 23806 and finally 23111.
Resistance levels for Nifty remain at 24592, 24757 and 25069 levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.