Great Fightback by the Nifty in last 90 - 100 MinutesLast 2 hours today saw Nifty forming a bottom near 16828 that was the low of the day and making a pretty solid comeback. The momentum can lead us to open in positive and as US and other Global markets are supporting possibly Gap up opening tomorrow. If Nifty can sustain above 17061 tomorrow and move above 17142 tomorrow or later in the week. We can see a relief rally towards in the 17540 and 17650. 17221 and 17323 will be other important resistance points in this upmove. If Nifty can't sustain and close above 17061 we might be looking towards another dip towards 16900, 16850 or 16747. FOMC meeting of US FED on Wednesday will be the game changer for end of the month. Let us see if we have a marvelous ending of March or Melancholy March.
Niftyindia
Good Solid Support taken, Nifty can see some short covering. Good solid support taken by Nifty today near 16850. Closing was well above the level and Nifty closed at 16985. This indicates we can see some nice short covering tomorrow. There can be some selling pressure later in the day. To continue the momentum into the next week Nifty has to close the day above 17062.5 that was the high of today. 17211 and 17411 will be the resistances. Support remain at 16850 and 16747. Hopefully tomorrow we will see some cracker works...after some continuous selling. if 17062.5 is taken down cleanly.
Divergence on RSI will try to drive Nifty upwardsThere is a divergence formed in RSI in the last one hour during todays fall. Indicating that we may see positivity today. Nifty may end in Green territory if there is no further bad news from US. 17258 and 17355 will be important resistances. Followed by 17488 which is the 50 EMA. Supports are at 17113, 16952 and 16745. The last 2 only if there is some further major bad news. Otherwise 17113 and 17017 are pretty solid supports.
Weak Nifty not able to cross 50 EMA despite multiple attempts.Nifty today barely took support at 200 days EMA. In the closing hours Nifty was weak and it will be difficult for Nifty I think to hold on to this level tomorrow. Three expected support zones for Nifty in the coming days can be 17512, 17353 and Finally 17253. Nifty not able to cross 50 Days EMA after multiple attempts can not be considered a good sign. 17800 remains a ver formidable resistance as of now befores Bulls can sniff a chance.
Nifty ended the day just below 200 Hours EMA.The rampant run that Nifty started after making a base near 17255 has seen it make a high of 17799 and correct from there to close below 200 Hour's EMA at 17711(200 Hour's EMA is at 17716). Close above 17716 would have been great for the momentum to continue. Now that Nifty has closed below 200 Hour's EMA, Nifty probably will need a support to start next leg of Bull run. If by chance due to global factors Nifty can open with a gap above 200 Hour's EMA it can continue the bull run again with same momentum. Hourly RSI is at 65.7 which has corrected from 3 weeks high of 74.83. This also indicates need of little bit of consolidation before further bull run. Current squeezing pattern indicates peak 18100 or 18400 if the momentum continues.
Important Supports: 17681, 17559, 17435 and finally 17255.
Important Resistances: 17716, 17802, 17923 and finally 18007.
support zone established can Nifty fly again tomorrow?Looks like Nifty found a good support again today near 17306 range. If Nifty can hold it tomorrow certainly it can again try to leap ahead tomorrow.
Important Supports: 17306, 17259 and finally 17103.
Important Resistances: 17469 (Tough One To Conquer) and equally tough resistance of 17582.
lot of resistance to cross before bulls can sniff a chanceLot of resistances ahead for Nifty to cross. Today was just a good beginning today. May be there will be some consolidation tomorrow.
The supports for Nifty are near: 17393, 17352 and 17255.
The Resistances for Nifty are near: 17468, 17520, 17553 and finally 200 days EMA at 17584.
Nifty in most critical support zone. Nifty is looking weak and desolate. Volumes have dried and important supports have been broken. Usually rallies and up moves happen only at the times when no one expects them to happen. The good thing right now is Nifty is respecting the support zone near 17252 and 17353. As long as the last for is held we can look for a positive move to happen as Nifty Relative Strength Index is indicating an up-move. RSI is at the level which is as low as September 2022.
Nifty Supports: 17353, 17252 (Important Fibonacci Support) and finally 16747.
Nifty Resistances: 17565 to 17586 (Strong resistance) (200 days EMA and Fibonacci level resistance). Above this zone important resistance will be 50 days EMA at 17864.
Nifty Approaching Major Fibonacci Support. Nifty is near a major fibonacci support of 17252. This is the place from where it can turn positive. In case this level is broken the next support for Nifty will only be at Fibonacci levels of 16747. RSI on Nifty is also entering the zone from where it normally it can bounce. Relative Strength Index is around 31.35 on daily charts. Last time it was at similar or lower levels only in June 2022. The indications are that Spot Nifty has entered the oversold territory. Expecting a proper bounce or temporary bounce soon. For Educational Purpose only.
Nifty declining in the squeezing triangle, needs strength. Nifty has been declining within the squeezing triangle needs to gather all the strength available and jump above 17591 first and 17776 to be back in neutral zone. Currently it is in the bear zone or negative territory. Above 17921 will be a trend change and above 18116 nifty will be in positive energetic territory. Bulls can take over only after closing above 18266.
Going and closing below 17353 will be opening proper hell gates for the bears who can take the Nifty to 17104 or further sub 17K levels near 16900 or 16751. (Reaching here is very unlikely for now).
RSI of Nifty is slowly starting to enter a zone from where usually buying starts..
Nifty Squeezing between supports and resistances. In a data heavy week where lot of global events are about to happen Nifty may remain under pressure. Most important of the global events is the US FED FOMC meet on Friday. Don't carry long positions.
Nifty Supports: 17820, 17720 and 17590. Below 17590 market goes into bear territory. Below 17353 market goes into absolute bear grip. (doesn't look likely as of now).
Nifty Resistances: 17959, 18034, 18139 and finally 18262. (Above 18262 Bulls take control).
Nifty ends the week just under mid channel resistance. Some commentators in US are reflecting that during the FOMC in March 2023 can see US Fed hike rate by 50 bps. This move is anticipated based on US Inflation numbers which where worse than expected. Also there are some questions being asked about recovery of certain sectors in China which is still to come out fully from the COVID-19 grip. These two news items in general and US related news in particular purged the momentum Nifty was gaining since beginning of the week and we saw the index nosedive a bit on Friday.
Nifty Supports remain at: 17913 (Major support), 17885, 17794, 17651 and finally 17353.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 17976, 18031, 18134, 18181 and finally there will be a major resistance at 18269.
Long Positions should be taken only after closing above 18269.
Perfect Candle Stopped by Perfect Resistance. As you can see in the chart. It was a perfect candle taking a perfect support near 17795 zone (Today's low 17800). From where it kept on going North until it was stopped by a perfect resistance of 50 days EMA which was at 17960 (High of the day was 17954.55). Those who doubt Technical analysis and say that these are just post mortem lines without any meaning should have a look at the chart and see the importance of Technical analysis.
Also look at the trend line or Asymmetrical line resistance generating from recent high of Nifty at 18887.6 which stopped Nifty twice before once near 18703 on 14th December and once 18201 on 24th January. That line acted as a resistance today again and As Nifty was surging ahead and went upto 17954.55 brought it back to 17929.
Also you can see the 50 days resistance at 17960 which pushed the Nifty down before it could can touch it as the Nifty ended the day near 17929.
How to overcome these two important resistance?
Ans: They can be overcome by a gap up opening.
How can we get a gap up opening?
There is US Inflation Data tonight . If the data is good we might get a gap up opening tomorrow and once Nifty sustains above 50 EMA and trend line resistance...We can see it go further and far....
Critical day tomorrow.
50 and 200 Hours EMA proving to be major hurdles for Nifty. We have been seeing from 25th January 2023 that both 50 and 200 Hours EMA are not allowing Nifty to settle above it. Even if Nifty crosses below immediately. Currently the Nifty is below both 50 and 200 EMAs at 17770.9 indicating immense weakness and lack of confidence of retail investors. FIIs are also on the selling side. Only saving grace has been DIIs stepping in on every major fall to save the index.
Nifty Supports : 17720, 17650, 17494 and finally 17352. 17352 is a critical level below which bears will be dominating the market.
Nifty Resistances : Nifty has to overcome lot of resistance before we can see proper Bull Run in the market. Resistances on hourly chart are at 17794, 17893, 17916, 17975, 18113, 18202 and finally 18264. Bulls can take control of the market only after we have a weekly closing above 18264.
Nifty Consolidating Between Strong Support and Strong ResistanceNifty on a weekly chart is consolidating between strong support and strong resistance with a positive bias starting to appear for medium to long term. Strongest support for Nifty is between the zone of 17352 and 17430 (50 Weeks EMA). Strong resistance zone for Spot Nifty is 17916 and 18027. However crossing 18027 is not enough for bulls to take charge of the market. Bulls will regain the control only after we get a closing above 18266. Bears can overpower the market if the level of 17352 is broken. Things are interestingly poised with Adani saga turning new leaves every day once the fizz of the matter settles completely we may see a proper trend emerge.
Nifty Facing 200 Hours EMA as a strong resistance. As expected 200 hours EMA is proving to be a strong resistance for NIFTY. Unless Nifty can convincingly close above it further journey will be difficult. Tomorrow again Nifty might consolidate a bit later in the day Nifty might try to cross 200 hours EMA. let us see if that can sustain.
Resistances For Nifty: 17910, 17974 and a very tough resistance thereafter near 18068.
Supports for Nifty: 17810, 17765 (Strong support 50 hours EMA) and finally 17649.
Medium Term Post Budget Outlook for NiftyIf Nifty holds on to 17427 which is the 50 Weeks EMA there are chances that we may see an upswing and turnaround in market sentiments in the medium term we may see a rally which can take us close to All time high of 18887 or give us a new All-time high on Nifty which can be just above 19K levels. If the support levels are held we have a chance of Cup and Handle BreakOut on Nifty.There are however my resistances to be crossed for this to be achieved. One of the major resistances will be 50 days EMA at 17991. Supports and Resistances in the medium to long term range.
Nifty Resistances: 17854, 17991, 18196, 18369, 18612 and 18887 and finally 19036
Nifty Supports: 17558, 17427 and finally 17353. Below 17353 only major support is near 17088 and 16757.
Medium to Long term Target for Nifty around 19,000. Strong closing on Friday and a good budget have increased the hopes of a post budget rally in Nifty investors are hoping that the worst of Hindenburg-Adani Saga is behind us and the momentum gained on Friday can continue further.
In any case in the medium to Long term target of Nifty is Point B shown in the chart which is around 18800 and 19,000. How Nifty reaches there is the point. Either we will see Nifty take the route of point A to point B directly or we may see further consolidation and Nifty might go from A to C first and then it may go from point C to point B.
The routes are purely based on assumption and mathematical models which might not be very accurate. The purpose of chart is to provide education. The time when Nifty will reach point B can’t be estimated accurately as there are many unknown factors and surprise elements at play.
One important deduction, 17386 is a major support for Nifty which should not be taken down on weekly closing. If 17386 is broken the trend will become negative.