#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 4th-8th Nov 2024Last week, the Nifty 50 index concluded at 24,304 points, marking a 125-point surge from the previous week's close. It reached a high of 24,498 and a low of 24,134. As anticipated, the index successfully tested the 24,500 resistance level before settling at its current position.
With the India VIX index indicating an upward trend, the Nifty 50 is expected to trade within a broader range of 24,900 to 23,700 in the coming week. A breach of these levels could trigger significant market volatility. The upcoming US elections on November 5th are likely to intensify the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
I'm closely monitoring the 23,511 level (DEMA200) as a potential entry point for NiftyBees. However, it remains to be seen if this opportunity materializes.
S&P 500's Weekly Performance and Outlook
The S&P 500 index ended the week at 5,728 points, approximately 80 points lower than the previous week's close. It touched a high of 5,850 and a low of 5,702. This week, the index found support at the DEMA50 level. If it dips below 5,702 next week, it could test support levels at 5,637, 5,585, and 5,400, which would have negative implications for global markets.
To resume its upward trajectory, the S&P 500 needs to close above 5,700 on consecutive days. This could propel it towards the 5,821, 5,868, and 5,899 levels.
Niftylevels
FIIs continue to weigh in on Nifty Index. Unblemished sell off from FIIs has dampened the festive mood of investors in the Indian markets. Looks like there was not much support for DIIs today as Retails investors might be busy with Diwali festival so FIIs today had a clear upper hand. There are signs of bottom formation and Higher high higher low pattern is formed on Nifty. Unless we have a closing below 24172 or 24069 levels, I think the things will hold. If we get a closing below 24K bears and FIIs can push Nifty further down to 23.8K or 23.2K levels. Thus supports for Nifty are at 24172, 24142 and 24069 levels. Resistances for Nifty remains at 24242, 24370, 24395, 24505, 24601, 24702 and finally 24811 levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 31-Oct-2024
Intro:
On the previous trading day, Nifty exhibited a mix of consolidation and upward momentum, with notable resistance zones tested near 24,594 . Key levels for 31-Oct-2024 have been identified, with trends marked as follows: yellow for sideways movement, green for bullish momentum, and red for bearish sentiment. This plan provides strategies for different opening scenarios.
Trading Plan for 31-Oct-2024
Gap Up Opening (100+ points above)
If Nifty opens 100+ points above the previous close, it may test the First Resistance/Consolidation Zone near 24,594 . If the index sustains above this level, we may see a push towards the Profit Booking Zone at 24,694 . However, if it struggles to hold above 24,594 , expect a retracement towards the Opening Support/Resistance level at 24,320 .
– A reversal from the resistance levels could prompt a move back to the Support at Retracement at 24,163 .
Flat Opening (within 50 points of the previous close)
For a flat opening, the key level to watch is 24,349 . Sustaining above this point could lead to a breakout, targeting 24,594 and possibly extending towards the Profit Booking Zone at 24,694 . Conversely, if momentum fails above 24,349 , Nifty might move sideways around 24,320 or even test the lower support at 24,285 .
– A downside break below 24,285 could increase bearish pressure, with potential support found at 24,163 .
Gap Down Opening (100+ points below)
In a gap-down scenario, initial support may be found near 24,285 . A rebound from this level could bring the price back toward 24,349 . If the index sustains above 24,349 , bullish momentum could retest the resistance at 24,594 . However, if 24,285 fails to hold, a decline towards Support at Retracement near 24,163 is likely.
– Persistent weakness below 24,163 might drive further downside towards the Last Intraday Support at 24,040 .
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
Manage your position sizes wisely, especially when volatility is high.
Consider deploying trailing stops near major resistance/support levels to protect gains.
Options spreads can limit risk exposure, which is particularly useful in a choppy market.
Summary and Conclusion
The primary focus for 31-Oct-2024 remains on the resistance at 24,594 and support at 24,163 . Traders should stay flexible with these levels and use disciplined stop-loss strategies to manage risks. Observing the price action after the opening will provide better insight into the day’s trend.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is based on technical levels and reflects my personal view. Please perform your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before trading.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 29-Oct-2024
Intro:
On the previous day, Nifty displayed a upward movement from the provided levels in yesterdays trading plan and minor fluctuations within key levels. The chart illustrates potential sideways movement in yellow , an expected bullish trend in green , and a bearish trend in red . For today's trading, we will observe various opening scenarios and outline strategies accordingly.
Trading Plan for 29-Oct-2024
Gap Up Opening (100+ points above)
If Nifty opens with a 100+ points gap up, it is likely to face resistance near the 24,453 - 24,563 range, which is marked as the Opening Resistance / No Trade Zone . Observe price action here. If Nifty sustains above 24,563 , it may target the Profit Booking Zone around 24,715 - 24,759 . However, if it fails to break above the resistance, expect a potential retracement towards the Opening Support at 24,282 .
– In case of strong selling pressure, Nifty could pull back further, aiming toward 24,162 as a potential support.
Flat Opening (within 50 points of the previous close)
With a flat opening, focus on the initial 30 minutes to gauge market sentiment. If prices sustain above the 24,453 level, we may see a push toward 24,563 . A breakout above 24,563 will likely lead to a bullish trend targeting Profit Booking Zone at 24,715 - 24,759 . However, if it fails to sustain above the No Trade Zone , expect sideways movement or a dip toward 24,282 .
– Any move below 24,282 could potentially extend towards 24,162 , testing the Last Intraday Support level.
Gap Down Opening (100+ points below)
In a gap-down opening, monitor the 24,282 level as the immediate support. If it holds, Nifty may attempt to retest the Opening Resistance Zone around 24,453 . A breakout above this level could bring sideways or bullish momentum up to 24,563 . Failure to reclaim 24,282 may lead to further downside pressure, potentially pulling prices to the Last Intraday Support at 24,162 .
– Watch for price stability around 24,162 if it is reached, as this may serve as a potential reversal point.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
Consider setting a defined stop-loss for each options position based on volatility levels; hourly candle closes can be useful for managing intraday risk.
Avoid over-leveraging. In options trading, position sizing should reflect the inherent risk and potential for quick price changes.
Utilize trailing stops to lock in profits if Nifty moves favorably. This is particularly effective in highly volatile sessions.
Summary and Conclusion
Today, focus on the key zones: 24,453 - 24,563 as resistance and 24,282 as support. A break above or below these levels could set the day's trend. Use a balanced approach, aligning with the prevailing sentiment indicated by the chart structure.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is based on personal views and technical parameters. Please conduct your research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Technical bounce in Nifty today, recovery can be a long processToday what we saw can be called as technical recovery by Nifty in the process of bottom formation. Actual recovery can still be a long process. Bulls can be back inn business only if we get a closing above mother line of 50 days EMA that is at 24898. 24898 is a critical level because mid channel resistance for the current parallel channel as well as Mother line. Whether Nifty can weather the storm and move ahead is only a question which time will answer in the short term. Long term investors can see current situation as partial entry zone for large and mid-caps which have given a good result this quarter or are giving a good result.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 23865, 23684, 23464 (Father line Strong support 200 days EMA) and 23626 (Strong Parallel Channel Bottom Support).
Resistances for Nifty Remain at: 24492 (Today's high and strong Trend line resistance), 24679, 24898 (Strong Mid-channel and Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA), 25221 and 25623.
Strong momentum and positive action has potential to take Nifty back to 26K+ levels. As on date even after strong resilience shown by Nifty FIIs are still on the selling side as they were net sellers of Equity worth Rs.3228 Crores. DIIs and Retail investors have been on the buying side at every dip. This is what is not allowing the Nifty to fall currently beyond 200 days EMA. Let us see who given in first. Very interesting tussle going on between FIIs and DIIs + Retail investors combination. Shadow of the candle for tomorrow is neutral to slightly positive but it is hanging by a thin thread. (Approach for long term should be cautious but positive. Approach for short term is still very cautious as we are not out of deep waters).
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 28-Oct-2024Nifty Trading Plan for 28-Oct-2024
**Previous Day Recap**: Nifty experienced volatility yesterday, with a downward bias. Major support levels held around the **24080-24100** mark, indicating potential buying interest. However, resistance levels remain active, with **24,276** serving as a pivot zone. For today, trends are illustrated as follows:
- **Yellow** trend signifies a sideways market.
- **Green** trend indicates a bullish outlook.
- **Red** trend reflects a bearish sentiment.
Opening Scenarios for 28-Oct-2024
Gap Up Opening (+100 points or more)
If Nifty opens with a gap up of 100+ points:
- Immediate resistance can be seen at **24,276**. A break above this may push the index towards the **24,392** level, which acts as the Last Resistance for Intraday .
- Consider booking profits if Nifty approaches the **24,531 - 24,589** zone (highlighted as Profit Booking Zone ) as sellers might attempt to re-enter.
- If resistance at **24,276** holds and shows weakness, expect a potential pullback towards **24,143** for support.
Flat Opening
In case of a flat opening near **24,210**:
- Initial support is at **24,191**, followed by a stronger base around **24,143**.
- If Nifty moves up from these levels, the next resistance can be expected at **24,276**. Watch closely for consolidation in this area, as a breakout could trigger a rally toward **24,392**.
- A failure to hold support at **24,143** could signal a downtrend, targeting **23,998** and below.
Gap Down Opening (-100 points or more)
For a gap down opening of -100 points or more:
- Initial support will likely emerge around **23,998**. If this holds, a bounce is expected toward **24,143**.
- If **23,998** breaks, the next significant support level sits at **23,740**, marked as the Possible Bottom Zone for Current Trend . This is a critical level; a breach could lead to a deeper correction towards **23,590**.
- A recovery from this lower level may indicate reversal buying, ideal for intraday long positions up to **24,086**.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
- Always define your stop-loss levels based on the nearest support/resistance zones to manage risk effectively.
- Avoid aggressive positions in high-volatility scenarios like gap openings. Start small and scale up if the trend confirms.
- Be cautious of time decay when trading options, especially if the price is near critical support or resistance zones.
- Consider hedging positions if holding overnight, given the volatility in global markets.
Summary and Conclusion
For 28th October 2024, key zones to watch are **24,276** on the upside and **23,998** on the downside. A breakout or breakdown from these levels could determine the day’s trend. Remember that the market may consolidate before choosing a direction, and it’s wise to wait for confirmation at these levels before entering trades.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 25/10/2024Flat or slightly gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening expected nifty will consolidated between 24400-24500 zone. Bullish rally only expected if nifty gives breakout of 24500 level and sustain above this level. Downside expected if nifty starts trading below 24400 level.
Nifty Intraday Levels 24-OCT-2024, Sell Trend Continue Today Nifty also reversed near "Reaction Area", we can consider that area as resistance.
Nifty is now trading away from selling area and a pullback is possible from buyer side. Only "Resistance Area" is the most safest place to sell in nifty.
Wait for the price pullback and sell only when price is reversing from selling zone "Resistance Area" Near 24520.
If price is waiting near today closing price and making 3-4 candles in 5 min timeframe then breakdown. We can also sell after that but first wait for the buyers to come and defend the price.
Note : Its just an analysis, wait for the price to confirm.
Disclaimer : Always follow risk to reward, this is the only key to success in market, no matter how much good a trade is looking we never know the future.
Another day another weak show by Nifty. Nifty again could not sustain the highs of the day and ended up in the negative. Nifty on an hourly chart is spiralling downwards in a downward parallel channel. Every bounce even if it is a small one is seen as an opportunity to sell specially by the FIIs. Even today the signs or signals for bottom formation are not visible.
To know more about a parallel channel do read my book the Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
One thing is for sure upward curve also starts out of nowhere just like the downward slide started out of nowhere so there is no need to sweat about it as the Macros for India remain healthy. Dollar index gaining more and more strength is a sign of concern however. Once the Dollar starts to relent we will see a better performance from many sectors. RSI of Dollar index is just starting to touch the overbought zone.
Nifty supports remain at 24370, 24149, 23806 and finally 23111.
Resistance levels for Nifty remain at 24592, 24757 and 25069 levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY Bears Roar! TP2 Hit, Momentum Building for More!NIFTY 15m time frame Short Trade
Entry: 24,827.10
Current Price: 24,565.50 – TP2 completed, moving closer to TP3 and TP4
Key Levels:
Stop-Loss (SL): 24,902.70 – Protecting against reversals above resistance.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 24,733.70 – Hit, confirming downtrend initiation.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 24,582.50 – Hit, trend acceleration seen.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 24,431.30 – Approaching the next key target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 24,337.85 – Final target for this move.
Trade Outlook:
NIFTY continues its downward journey, with TP2 successfully hit. Bearish pressure remains strong, and we anticipate the next targets being met as the market sustains its downtrend.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 23/10/2024In today's session, Expected nifty will open near 24500 level. After opening if it's sustain above 24500 level then expected correction movement upto 24700. Upside 24700 will act as a strong resistance for today's session. In case, Nifty gives breakdown of 24450 level then possible strong downside upto 24200 level in today's session.
Very weak candle more pain may be in store for Nifty. Today we saw a confirmation of a pattern similar to head and shoulders pattern. The pattern is not exactly the classic head and shoulder but it is similar which can yield similar break down results meaning more pain might be in store if next 2 support levels are broken. The low of August 5 that is 24055 will be vital zone for Nifty to take support and make a comeback. There are 2 weak supports before we reach that level. These supports are near support previous to that at 24407 and 24113. If by chance 24055 is broken the next support is there near 23811 followed by 200 days EMA (Father line) at 23428. Below this level there is pure bear territory as this chart is drawn on daily candle sticks. On the upper side the resistances that Nifty will now face are at 24711 (Strong resistance along with a trend line resistance). If this resistance will be crossed the next resistance is at 24879. By chance we get a closing above this level Mid channel resistance and Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA awaits us near 24995 and 25231 respectively. The Macros of Israel Vs Iran++, US Elections and China stimulus are the major factors affecting FII outflow. Indian Growth story remains intact sectoral churning near the bottom is a real possibility. Overbought sectors of Defense and PSU in addition to some Mid and Small caps are taking most of the beating. At some point their PE will become attractive and at some point their dividend yield will also attract investors. whether that point has arrived or will arrive soon is yet to be known. There are no signals of bottom formation as of now and Shadow of the candle remains negative.
Mother Line Stopping moves to Nifty to go ahead.As you can see clearly from the chart with daily candles that mother line of 50 days EMA is stopping Nifty from progressing ahead. Nifty since October 7 is unable to close substantially above the mother line. This is the power of Mother line resistance. Trend lines are merging and Squeezing the Nifty with very less space left for it to maneuver. Nifty is at exact crossroads with possibility of Breakout or Breakdown at time later during this week.
To know more about stop losses, trailing stop losses, Profit booking and investment, financial awareness in general, process of investment in Equity or Mother, Father and small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. Many People who have read it consider it as hand book and perfect guide to equity investment. You can read reviews of the book or purchase the same from Amazon. The book is available on Amazon in Kindle and paperback version. I am sure you are going to find it of massive use. Once you have read the book, I assure you that you will become a next level investor. The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation is a book currently rated highest in the category of financial analysis and strategy on Amazon.
Supports For Nifty are at: 24685, 24565, 24065 and Father line support of 200 day's EMA at 23417. (Below 23417 in unlikely situation of some major global escalation Bears will take total control of the market).
Resistances for Nifty: 24858, 25017 (Mother line Resistance of 50 day's EMA), 25321, 25469 and 25634. Above 25634 bulls can come back to action.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 21-25th Oct 2024The Nifty 50 index concluded the week at 24,854, a 110-point decline from the previous week's close. Despite hitting a high of 25,212 and a low of 24,567, the index remained within its expected trading range of 25,550 to 24,350. Looking ahead, I anticipate the Nifty to continue trading between 25,400 and 24,300.
A breakdown below 24,486 , the WEMA21 support level, would signal a bearish trend, potentially leading to a decline towards 23,400 or 23,300 . Conversely, a sustained move above 25,144 could pave the way for a rally to 25,500-25,600.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index achieved a new all-time high weekly close of 5,864, up approximately 40 points from the previous week. This suggests a potential upward move of 2-2.5% from its current level, targeting the significant Fibonacci level of 6,013. It remains to be seen if this positive momentum in the U.S. market will translate into a recovery for the Indian stock market."
Nifty is trying to stage recovery but 3 big hurdles are nearby.Nifty has on Friday tried to stage a recovery. It ended up 287 points from day's low which was a remarkable feat. Now it is staring at 3 or 4 major hurdles before Bulls can come back in business. But well begun is half the job done. The three major resistances are at 24886 that is Friday's high, 24960 that is Mother line of 1 hour chart, and 25172 that is father line of 1 hour chart.
To know more about Mother, Father and Small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
After 25172 the major hurdle will be at 25211. Closing above 25211 the bulls can try to take Nifty to higher levels. Support zones for Nifty will be at 24611, 24559 and 24466. If we get a closing below 24466 the bears can pull the Nifty further down and create more downside.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 18/10/2024Nifty will open slightly gap down in today's session. After opening if nifty starts trading below 24700 level then possible strong downside fall upto 24450 level in today's session. 24750-24900 will act as a consolidation zone for nifty. Any bullish side rally only expected above 24900 level.
Nifty Next MoveNifty have formed harmonic pattern
we can expect a small down trend and after Rally
also the area is above 70% of the trend line formation so we can expect buyers in Discount area
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