Consolidation and profit booking phase in Nifty. Nifty is seeing a consolidation and Profit booking phase after making a new All Time high. There was a massive pressure seen across indices. This phase and volatility which we have seen off late can continue for a while till election results are declared and a little bit post results too. FMCG and Pharma were the only 2 indices which withstood the selling pressure but broader markets were seen bleeding a bit specially the cash counters. Next one week or so will test the patience of investors and speculation should be avoided. Stay away from high risk counters and derivatives if you are not an expert. Support for Nifty can be seen near 22864 which is rather a weak support. Next support is near 22767 which is considerably strong support of 50 Hours EMA (Mother line). If 22767 is broken further support can be found only near 22602 and 22489. This zone is a strong support zone having mid channel support of the current channel and 200 hours EMA. Resistance on the upper side for Nifty are at 22937, 22999 and 23053. Above 23053 Nifty will become little strong and Bulls can further take the index to 23108 or 23150 levels which will be a strong channel top resistance.
Niftylevels
In a range. Look for break out. Nifty is stuck in a range between 23100 and 22870. Though the higher time frame fair value gaps suggest a bullish price action, the news based uncertainty tells us to trade with caution. Wait for a break out on wither side. In this rage trade only if you are able to read the fine but violent moves.
Not much room to grow for Nifty unless it breaks the channel. Nifty hit the channel top today and immediately receded as there is not much space left of it to grow. Either it has to break the parallel channel and go above it or it has to fall to cool down the RSI and then come and fight to make a new high. It is obvious that as we hit levels above 23K there will be bout or bouts of profit booking too. With election results around keep expecting such volatile ralles and snap rallies. Supports for Nifty on the lower side are at 22877, 22775, 22716 and 22457. Below 22457 Nifty becomes a little weak. Resistances on the upper side for Nifty are at 22999, 23053, 23110 and finally 23150. Shadow of the candles is absolutely neutral.
ATH Breakout for Nifty but has the rally got more steam?Major ATH All Time high Breakout for Nifty today however Nifty could not cross the much coveted level of 23K. Can Nifty do to it tomorrow? has it got the steam? RSI is high indicating that Nifty is getting overbought and valuations of a lot of stocks are very pricey. However there might still be opportunity left in a few Large cap stock specially IT, Banking and Finance space which have fallen out of favour of investors lately. Valuations in some PSU, Mid and Small Case space are questionable currently and we advise keeping a strict trailing stop loss wherever you have good profit.
Remember nobody has ever become a pauper by booking profits. Keep strict trailing Stop Losses. They are best friends. Loss in Profit is ok but Profit to loss is not ok.
Nifty Major Supports levels: 22784, 22507 and 22298.
Major Future resistance levels: 22293, 23060, 23208 and 23407.
U-formation on cards if resistance at 22632 is cleared by Nifty.It looks like Nifty can create a U formation if the resistances at 22632 is cleared and we get a proper closing above it. However for perfect U-formation the Nifty will have to cross other resistances at 22693, 22734, 22768 and finally 22794. In case we do not get a closing above 22632 and Nifty returns the supports for Nifty will be at 22536, 22484 and 22445. Below 22445 there are important support levels of 50 and 200 EMA which are 22409 and 22345. Below 22345 Nifty becomes very weak and Bears take over the market. Shadow of the candle is neutral to positive for tomorrow.
Nifty returning from 22591 indicates strong resistance zone.Nifty returning from high of 22591 has given indication of strong resistance zone ahead. Also closing above Mid-Channel resistance was a good move but still it is not a convincing upward gallop with market breadth remaining negative and FII still selling relentlessly. Some decent mid and large cap stocks are not moving despite good results and some average stocks and PSU are moving towards exaggerated valuation. PE investing or comparing the 10 year PE to the current PE of the stock should be the way to go for investors. Do not get trapped at levels which might not return for years. (I am nor fear mongering but that should be the case in every and any circumstance anyway.)
Nifty Supports levels: 22470, 22402, 22345, 22257 and 22055.
Nifty Resistance levels: 22530, 22591, 22658, 22730 and 22831.
NIFTY 300+ Points Gain Target 3 ReachedSo, far this has been my safest strategy to trade Nifty:
Apply the indicator 'Risological Astra'
Set Nifty to 15 min time frame
BUY CE side if the price closed above the Astra dotted line.
I buy the monthly contract ONLY, with this strategy.
Sell 50% when the price reaches TP4.
Hold remaining 50% till the price crosses under the Astra dotted line.
This trade gave me 315+ points (unrealized PnL)
Ofcourse I will be selling 50% at TP4 and hold the remaining till the price crosses under the astra line.
I wish you all, good luck and happy trading.
Flying Index, Strolling Future!Nifty FUT does not seem keen to move up and that is a little worrisome. We are at striking distance to ATH but the timing is not to brilliant. Election results are still a couple of weeks away. We could move up a little and then retrace to consolidate near the 50% mark. This looks like a logical scenario. But informed institutions could take big positions and that could go against any narrative. Will trade only after watching for a while.
Good move ahead if mid channel support is held by NiftyGood move ahead for Nifty can hold the levels of 22470 and give a closing above 22522. Incase we get a closing above 22522 the resistances ahead will be 22587, 22658, 22730 and 22800+. In case Nifty gives a closing below 22470 the supports will be at 22345, 22246 and 22055. 22522 is however a strong trendline resistance and gap up opening and holding above it is the way to overcome it faster. Shadow of the candle is positive for the beginning of the week.
Technical Analysis: NIFTY 50's Recent Shifts and Future ProspectHello, TradingView community! Today, we're diving into a detailed technical analysis of the NSE:NIFTY index, which has shown some interesting movements lately. We'll break down the technical signals, look at the potential implications, and discuss what to watch out for in the coming days.
🔍 Overview of Recent Trends
The NIFTY 50 has been following a well-defined upward trend channel over the past several months, making consistent gains each time it hit the upper boundary. However, recent patterns suggest a change in dynamics, which we need to scrutinize closely.
🔁 Current Technical Setup
Most notably, the NIFTY 50 recently deviated from its usual pattern by not reaching the upper boundary of the trend channel before reversing its direction towards the lower boundary. This could be an early sign of weakening bullish momentum.
📉 Significance of the Double Top Pattern
The formation of a potential Double top, a classic bearish reversal indicator, adds weight to concerns about a bearish shift. While this pattern is not yet confirmed—since we haven't seen a definitive breakdown below the neckline—it's a development that warrants attention.
📊 Intersection with the 100-day SMA
The recent drop of -1.5% in the NIFTY 50 brought it down to the lower boundary of the trend channel, which coincidentally aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This SMA has historically served as a strong support level, often triggering rebounds.
🔄 Potential Outcomes
Bounce Back: If the 100-day SMA and the lower boundary of the trend channel hold up, there's potential for the NIFTY 50 to rebound towards the mid or upper boundary of the channel.
Bearish Reversal: A decisive close below the 100-day SMA & Neckline of Double Top could indicate a more significant Bearish Trend or the start of a consolidation phase.
🌐 Broader Market Context
Quarterly Earnings: The index is feeling the pressure from non-impressive Q4 results for 2024. Lackluster corporate earnings can dampen investor sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of stock valuations.
Volatility Index Rise: The NSE:INDIAVIX , which measures market volatility, is on the rise. This indicates increased uncertainty among investors, as they price in a higher potential for market swings.
FII Activity: There has been significant selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), contributing to downward pressure on the index. FII flows are crucial as they represent substantial investment volumes and can influence market direction.
US Federal Reserve's Stance: The hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve, signaling potential interest rate hikes, is also a critical factor. Higher US interest rates can lead to capital outflows from emerging markets like India as investors seek higher returns in US assets.
These points illustrate how external factors are intricately linked with the movements of the NIFTY 50 index and should be considered when analyzing its future direction.
📈 Trading Strategy Recommendations
For those actively monitoring the NIFTY 50, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the 100-day SMA and the lower trend line of uptrend channel. These areas serve as critical junctures that could determine the market's short-term direction.
"In the world of Market, it's not about how much you know, but how well you understand what you know and how you apply it in uncertain times."
To conclude, while the NIFTY 50 presents an intriguing technical setup, traders should proceed with caution given the current uncertainties and the index's recent behavior.
This analysis is intended to enhance understanding and encourage informed decision-making. Keep watching these indicators and adapt your strategies accordingly to navigate through these potentially choppy waters.
Lastly, thank you for your support, your likes, Follows & comments. Feel free to ask if you have any questions.
Good closing by Nifty just above mid-channel resistance. Nifty saw a good closing today above mid channel resistance but could not hold on to higher levels as it found the resistance at 22502 to hot to cross. 22502 was today's high and might act as a resistance again tomorrow. If this level is crossed and we get a closing above it the next resistance levels will be at 22587 and 22658. Above 22658 bull have potential to take full control of the market and in such a scenario we can see Nifty climbing to the highs of 22730 and 22801 in the coming week or weeks. On the lower side, today's low of 22345 is a good support followed by Mother line support of 50 Hours EMA at 22235. Below 22235 Nifty becomes week and we might again see the levels of 22055, 21937 and 21815. Below 21815 closing Bears take total control of the market. Nifty is interestingly placed with shadow of the candle being neutral and it was a Doji candle that we saw today emphasizing the tussle between bulls and bears or shall we call it a tussle between FIIs and DIIs + Retail investors?
Trap!Looks like Nifty has walked straight into a spot marked with a big X like in the KGF2 movie. And is waiting to be shot down by bear cartel. This is the narrative that played out in my head.
Nifty could either consolidate OR fall from here.
On the contrary of Nifty Gaps up OR there is fresh buying in some heavy weights, good enough to make 22500 sellers run for cover, then we could see an unprecedented rally.
Remarkable Comeback Nifty but now faces Mid-channel resistance.Nifty recovered handsomely 349.85 points from the low of the day in the last hour against all frantic FII selling. This shows the power of DII and retail investors. Now Nifty faces a tough mid channel resistance 22438 which will take some doing to cross it. If Nifty manages to cross 22438 the next resistances will be at 22496, 22587, 22658, 22730 and 22801. If Nifty is not able to cross the Mid channel resistance the supports will be at 22298, 22215 and 22054. Nifty will be very weak below 22054. Shadow of the candle is looking neutral to negative but if FII jump into action (which unlikely) then frantic upside is possible. Volatility and peak tussle between FII and DII might continue.
NIFTY BOUNCES from the ASTRA LineWe have been holding the LONG position (CE) from our entry on 14th morning.
The price saw a downward movement today exactly touching the Risological Astra line and taking a bounce back upwards.
Market has overall bullish sentiments especially considering the fact that the election results are nearing and this bullish momentum could be a hidden bullish divergence that we are going to see the next day after the election result.
BJP wins = Market Bullish
INDI Alliance wins = Market Crash
So, big moves are coming soon in the market. Hold your breath, homies!
Opening in the Bear's den. Nifty is all posed to open in the Bear's den. The higher probability is a few up ticks and then bears overporwer the bulls and sell aggressively. But if the bulls are aggressive enough and fresh buying comes in, there will be an epic short covering rally. Be prepared to trade. Could be a happening expiry.
Nifty Squeezing in tight space between supports and resistances.Nifty is squeezing in a tight space squeezing between major supports and resistances. A major move on either side can not be negated. With US inflation, Lok Sabha election phases, Announcements by FM about course correction discussion with SEBI on how F&O will operate in future, and other important data awaited, mixed bag results. Today 200 Hours EMA acted as a major resistance. Nifty barely touched it and returned closing fractionally below 50 hours EMA. Trend line resistance and support are also acting not allowing Nifty to move much in either directions. FII is selling on every rise. DII is buying on every dip.
Very interesting phase which is testing the patience of investors is going on. All we need to do is watch important levels, important results and important data. Holding on to what we have high conviction in and letting go of what is not convincing valuation wise is important. Not reacting to market noise and filtering out your portfolio is important, before the next bull run begins. If it has not already begun.
Important Resistance Levels: 22242, 22302 (200 Hours EMA) Father line, 22400 mid channel resistance and 22501.
Important Support levels: 22148, 22068, 21937 and 21815 (Nifty becomes very weak and goes into bear grip below this level.)
Good Closing For Nifty but major resistance ahead. Nifty closed very well above 50 hours EMA (Mother Line) but is facing a formidable resistance of 22273 and 22309. The best thing to happen can be if Nifty opens gap up above this resistance and sustains the level. In such a scenario the next resistance it will face will be at 22374. Crossing and closing above 22374 will bring back bulls firmly in the business and they can push the nifty towards 22501, 22598 or even 22695. In case the resistance of 22273 and 22309 are not crossed by Nifty successfully the supports for Nifty will be at 22205, 22096, 22020 and finally 21937. Below 21937 Nifty has only one support of channel bottom at 21815. closing below 21815 can empower the bears to run havoc but shadow of the candle looks positive right now.
Rise to be sold into!The higher the Gap up today, the mor confident I shall be to sell on the first tick. There is one stop NIFTY missed in this pilgrimage downhill: "21800". When she realizes it, she would turn around and rush to make that final downward journey before continuing up to where she belongs.
A gap down opening is when things will become tricky. In this case there might or might not be a retracement to gather longs before falling.
NIFTY Next Week Target Prediction (May 16, 2024)Nifty 15m has conquered the EMA 100 at the end of the hour today.
We were able tp capture both the PE and CE side momentum using Risological Indicators.
Hopefully next week, we will see Bullish days.
On a Daily timeframe, chart looks BEARISH. So, we might also see a BIG gapdown on Monday morning.
Trade safe. have a happy weekend!
Nifty received some support from bottom and the Home Minister. Nifty today received some support from the bottom and some support from the interview of home Minister where he was seen very confident about forming a stable government as well as talking about investments in the share markets and how things will be in case they win (Which he was confident about. Nifty took support near 21821 and broke a negative trend line and gave a closing above it at 22104 as seen in the chart. However formidable resistances at 22177, 22207 and 22317 remain to be conquered. Bulls can breath easy only above this level. Also FIIs might further sell at every bounce. Unless FII and DII both are buying volatility will remain at the forefront. Supports for Nifty at lower levels are at 22020, 21938 and 21769. Below 21769 bears can create further mayhem.
Nifty falling channel breakout Index bounced aggressively after making a temporary bottom at 21823 . 21823 stays an important level to watch out for, If index sustains below 22000 and starts sliding long traders should exit their position!
Falling channel breakout gives us the following targets -
Target 1 - 21350 zone
Target 2 - 21500/530 zone
Strict Sl once the index starts sliding below 22000 and starts sustaining below it!