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NIFTY Market Insights: Anticipating significant shiftsDear Traders, I trust this message finds you well in both your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am pleased to present a compelling opportunity through a new NIFTY analysis that indicates an imminent significant market shift. The recent upward surge in the market has prompted concerns, as my analysis over the past two months has consistently pointed to an anticipated correction owing to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical details: I. Resistance I: 25,388 ~ 25,430 (Extended trend line from 17th JUN'22) II. Resistance II: 25,490 ~ 25,510 ~ 25,526 (Conj. Extended trend line from 24 JAN'24 & 24 JUN'24) III. Resistance III: 25,590 (Extended trend line from 29 FEB'16 – Long & strong Resistance) Please note that these values serve as indicative levels of support and resistance. The wave patterns depicted in the diagram, signal completion of the trend. Additional observations: Time series Forecasting: Top - Top - Today (04/09/2024) = 1690 D from 20jan'20 (1710 = 360*4 + 270) = 1053 D from 19oct'21 (1080 = 360*3) = 644 D from 01dec'22 (630 = 360+270) = 356 D from 15sept'23 (~360) Bottom – Top - Today (04/09/24) = 1626 D from 24mar'20 (1620 = 4*360+180) = 811 D from 17jun'22 (810 = 720 + 90) = 315 D from 26oct'23 (exactly an important angle) = 535 D from 20mar'23 (540 = 360 + 180) Given these short and long-term observations, the time resistance(s) are notably robust. Historical Repetition: The ongoing 14-day winning streak, continuously setting new records, typically precedes short-term corrections ranging from 3% to 24%, as historically observed. For instance, in May 2006, Nifty’s non-stop 9-day rally culminated in a 24% index decline in the subsequent month, while a similar trend in February 2000 resulted in an 11% decline in the subsequent month. Consequently, a market breather is anticipated, with profit booking potentially driving the market to deeper levels before embarking on a new uptrend (anticipated correction in the monthly scale, evident in the 3M time frame). Further details will be provided as the market unfolds. A correction of this magnitude is expected to materialize, with the following scenarios: The initial focus is to prioritize the trend line-based correction scenario. The primary support levels are identified at 23,100. Any subsequent breakout will result in distinct scenarios. Scenario 1: From 15,183.40, retracement towards 21,500 = 4,000 pts (38.2%R) (-12 to 15%), highly probable given the aforementioned reasons. Scenario 2: From 16,828, retracement towards 21,100 levels = 4,400 pts (50%R) (-13% to 17%), also plausible within the realm of reality. One of these scenarios is poised to unfold as the market progresses into correction. Fed and Markets: Considering the correlation between interest rates and market fluctuations, it is wise to take them into account. Typically, their relationship is inversely proportional. However, the Fed has been delaying the easing process due to economic conditions such as employment and inflation data. This month may bring many surprises. If everything goes according to plan, interest rates will be reduced, theoretically boosting investment in gold and stock markets. On the other hand, if the dovishness in the rate decision continues, it will likely unsettle the markets, at least in the short term. Further data releases this month will help in forming a consensus. IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER!!! Sept - 5, 6, 11, 12, 18 (FOMC) Strategy: 1. Being bullish beyond this point is not recommended. 2. Bearish bets are prudent from 25, 300 – 350, 400 for FOMO traders. Risky traders may consider waiting for the 25,500 levels to be tested. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Your feedback is genuinely appreciated, and I would encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section. I am committed to engaging with each response. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by liking and following me. Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
After making a new high Nifty finds temporary bottom. There was an immense bout of profit booking specially in the mid and small cap stocks decimation happened in PSU stocks. Many of these stocks are near important support levels now. Many seem to have taken support today. Nifty itself took support today near 25376. Looks like this was a strong support below which is another important mother line support of 25322. To know more about Mother, Father and Small Child theory read my book available on Amazon in Kindle and paperback version. Below 25322 the important support levels will be 25278, 25134 and 25008. However as support of 25376 has been taken for now things look little rosy to start the day with resistance levels will be 25485, 25533, 25611 and channel top now is at 25712.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Flag and Pole Breakout is not taking of as on date. Since Flag and pole breakout there are chances that even though 50 bps rate cut has been announced by US FED there are chances of Nifty trying to retest some supports. Today Nifty tested 50 hours EMA Mother line. But there is a chance that it may test the support again. If Mother line 25282 does not support again like today there is a chance of Nifty testing further supports which are near 25203, 25135 or even 25027. Resistances on the upper side will be near 25407, 25485, 25533 and 25607. As of now shadow of the candle is negative or red in colour. But if 50 EMA gives support the things can turn positive again. Expect some volatility in the coming days.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIFTY Podcast 17 Sep 2024Today, only 1 trade was taken. - Initially the market was sideways, as 5m candles closed both below and above Opening Price - 25409 - The OI data was positive, but 2 departments were Bullish, so after taking look at the closer look at the strikes 25400 and 25450, the Put Writers increased, which gave us confidence to take the trade. - The risk to reward wasn't 1:1, instead the target was Thick line, and with 5 points buffer the target was 25441 Notes: - In such sideways market, it would be better to take Short Selling Price Action strategy to aim for 1% target and 1% stoploss.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by gupshupblog
Flag formation in Nifty indicates some strength but be cautious Flag formation in Nifty indicates some strength but be cautious as there might be chances of profit booking at higher levels. The Fibonacci levels drawn based on previous peaks indicate the next resistance between 25449 and 25493. If 25493 is crossed and we get a closing above it there is a possibility of a rally upto 25600 or 25698 levels. This will be a resistance which will be very tough to conquer for now. The support for nifty in case the Flag and pole formation break out fails will be at 25333 and 25270. Mother line support of 50 hours EMA will be at 25193 which is also the mid channel support. Making it a strong dual support.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIfty50 outlook for upcoming week 16-20th Sept 2024#nifty50 Stellar Climb: The Nifty index has reached a new all-time high weekly close of 25,356, surpassing its previous peak of 25,433. Despite a bearish engulfing candle last week, the Nifty managed to rebound, thanks to a strong performance in the US market. As predicted, the index remained within the anticipated range of 25,500 to 24,150. Looking Ahead: For the coming week, I expect the Nifty to remain within the range of 25,810 to 24,750 . If the index can successfully break above the crucial Fibonacci level of 25,810 , it could potentially test 25,965 , although this may be challenging. However, below 24,750, the DEMA50 support level at 24,624 could act as a strong demand zone. Global Market Outlook: The S&P 500 rallied this week, driven by better-than-expected inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts. The index closed at 5,626, just below the important Fibonacci level of 5,637. On a weekly timeframe, the S&P 500 is showing signs of forming a W pattern. If it can close above 5,637 for consecutive days, it could open the door to a significant uptrend, targeting 5,806, 5,900, and even 6,005. Such a move could propel the global market, including India's Nifty, towards new all-time high levels of 25,800 or 25,950. However, if the S&P 500 falls below 5,535, there could be selling pressure, leading to potential support levels at 5,493, 5,390, and 5,270.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssudhirsharma11
Fresh Bullish Breakout in Nifty after consolidation. Nifty consolidated for a while tested new bottom near 24753 Nifty has today taken down all the resistances and made a new all time high of 25433. Nifty could not hold on to 25.4K+ levels today so the immediate resistance for Nifty will be today's high that is 25433. The next resistance is near 24537. Channel top seems to be near 25653. The door are now open for 26K+ long term target. As of now the long term target as per the trend line seems to be near 26355 with supports at 25293, 24910 and recent bottom formed near 24753. Below this level Mother line support will be near 24571 below which the trend can change bearish.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Mid-Channel Resistance stopped Nifty growth todayAfter remaining positive and buoyant the full day Mid-channel resistance came to force and stopped Nifty from further growth today, dragging it down from day's high of 25130. The closing is good and above Mother line (50 days EMA). To know more about Mother, father and small child theory and Happy Candles numbers that we assign to stocks read my book The Happy Candles way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version. The supports and resistances for Nifty now are as under: Supports for Nifty remain at: 24034 (Mother Line support), 25005, 24832, 24807 and finally 24527. Resistances for Nifty remain at: 25130, 25192, 25273 and 25333. Shadow of the candle right now is neutral to positive.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Strong comeback by Nifty indicating temporary bottom formation.Nifty today came back strongly after taking support from Father line of 200 EMA and trendline. The support of Father line will be confirmed if we get a positive and strong closing tomorrow. The supports as of now for Nifty remain at 24790 and 24753 (Today's low and trend line support). If by chance FED will not announce a big rate cut, Nifty may again go support searching. If 24753 is broken the next support will be only at channel bottom near 24527. Shadow of the candles as of now remains positive and resistances for the Nifty is in the zone between 25005 and 25033 (Mother line 50 Hour's EMA). If we get a closing above 25033 the next resistances for Nifty will be at 25192, 25273 and 25333. See how Father line support saved Nifty today. To know about Father, Mother and the small child theory you can read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
#nifty50 analysis for next week 9th Sept-13th septThe Indian stock market experienced a significant downturn last week, with the Nifty 50 closing at 24,852, a substantial 400 points below the previous week's close. Despite reaching a weekly high of 25,333, the index ultimately settled within its expected range of 25,850 to 24,600. Looking ahead, a bearish outlook prevails for the coming week. The Nifty is anticipated to trade within a range of 25,500 to 24,150. A bearish engulfing candle formation suggests continued selling pressure on Monday and Tuesday. However, a potential bounce to 25,000 on Wednesday or Thursday could offer bears an opportunity to initiate fresh short positions. A daily close above 25,080 would be a positive sign for bulls, while a close below 24,486 (DEMA50) could lead to further declines, potentially opening the gates to 24,150, 24,000, or 23,840 (DEMA100). Globally, the S&P 500's decline of 240 points from the previous week's close triggered selling across various markets, including India. The 5,380 support level (DEMA50) is crucial for the S&P 500. A break below this level could result in a 3.5-4% correction, potentially testing the 5,200-5,170 support zone, which would likely exert further pressure on global markets.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Major weakness in Nifty with across the board selling.Nifty today looked very weak as it was not able to sustain many important support levels. Relative strength index of Nifty is also looking that it might fall further. The candle looks like an Olympic diver which has jumped from the podium. You can never say never but shadow of the candle as of now looks very negative and dark red in colour. Resistance for Nifty will be at 24914, 25076 and 25333. Support for Nifty seem to be at 24702, 24483 (Major Mother Line 50 days EMA support). If this support is broken Bears can have a field day or a field week with no stopping. In such a scenario they can drag Nifty further down to 24242, 24016 or even 23673. The worst case scenario as of now looks like 23174 and 22759. 22759 will be Father line support. Nifty last took father line support only on 4th june 2024 when it looked as if NDA will not be able to form a Government and there were deep cuts. So it looks improbable that Nifty will fall till father line but you never say never as US and other global markets are in panic mode. Long term investors can be / should be ready with some liquidity as they might get a good chance for bottom fishing. Long term and ultra long term outlook for Indian markets still looks very positive.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty delicately placed near Mother line & important trendline.Nifty which closed at 25145 is delicately placed just above mother line 50 EMA and an important trend line near 25143. Another important support will be today's low that is 25127. Below this level there can be further weakness which can take Nifty to 25083, 25005 and 24875. If major support of 24875 is broken the final support will be near 24776. If 24776 is broken Bears can take over the market. Resistances on the upper side are at 25173, 25208, 25234, 25269. Above 25269 Bulls can take control of the market at take the market to 25304 or even 25337. Right now shadow of the candle is still little negative.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment