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NIFTY on the cusp for potential correction!Dear Traders, I trust this message finds you well in both your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am pleased to present a compelling opportunity through a new NIFTY analysis that indicates an imminent significant market shift. The recent upward surge in the market has prompted concerns, as my analysis over the past two months has consistently pointed to an anticipated correction owing to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical details: I. Resistance I: 25,388 ~ 25,430 (Extended trend line from 17th JUN'22) II. Resistance II: 25,490 ~ 25,510 ~ 25,526 (Conj. Extended trend line from 24 JAN'24 & 24 JUN'24) III. Resistance III: 25,590 (Extended trend line from 29 FEB'16 – Long & strong Resistance) *** Please note that these values serve as indicative levels of support and resistance. The wave patterns depicted in the diagram signal the completion of the trend. imgur.com Additional observations: Time series Forecasting: Top - Top - Today (04/09/2024) = 1690 D from 20jan'20 (1710 = 360*4 + 270) = 1053 D from 19oct'21 (1080 = 360*3) = 644 D from 01dec'22 (630 = 360+270) = 356 D from 15sept'23 (~360) Bottom – Top - Today (04/09/24) = 1626 D from 24mar'20 (1620 = 4*360+180) = 811 D from 17jun'22 (810 = 720 + 90) = 315 D from 26oct'23 (exactly an important angle) = 535 D from 20mar'23 (540 = 360 + 180) Given these short and long-term observations, the time resistance(s) are notably robust. Historical Repetition: The ongoing 14-day winning streak, continuously setting new records, typically precedes short-term corrections ranging from 3% to 24%, as historically observed. For instance, in May 2006, Nifty’s non-stop 9-day rally culminated in a 24% index decline in the subsequent month, while a similar trend in February 2000 resulted in an 11% decline in the subsequent month. Consequently, a market breather is anticipated, with profit booking potentially driving the market to deeper levels before embarking on a new uptrend (anticipated correction in the monthly scale, evident in the 3M time frame). Further details will be provided as the market unfolds. A correction of this magnitude is expected to materialize, with the following scenarios: The initial focus is to prioritize the trend line-based correction scenario. The primary support levels are identified at 23,100. Any subsequent breakout will result in distinct scenarios. Scenario 1: From 15,183.40, retracement towards 21,500 = 4,000 pts (38.2%R) (-12 to 15%), highly probable given the aforementioned reasons. Scenario 2: From 16,828, retracement towards 21,100 levels = 4,400 pts (50%R) (-13% to 17%), also plausible within the realm of reality. One of these scenarios is poised to unfold as the market progresses into correction. Fed and Markets: Considering the correlation between interest rates and market fluctuations, it is wise to take them into account. Typically, their relationship is inversely proportional. However, the Fed has been delaying the easing process due to economic conditions such as employment and inflation data. This month may bring many surprises. If everything goes according to plan, interest rates will be reduced, theoretically boosting investment in gold and stock markets. On the other hand, if the dovishness in the rate decision continues, it will likely unsettle the markets, at least in the short term. Further data releases this month will help in forming a consensus. IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER!!! Sept - 5, 6, 11, 12, 18 (FOMC) Strategy : 1. Being bullish beyond this point is not recommended. 2. Bearish bets are prudent from 25, 300 – 350, 400 for FOMO traders. Risky traders may consider waiting for the 25,500 levels to be tested. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Your feedback is genuinely appreciated, and I would encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section. I am committed to engaging with each response. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by liking and following me. Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Closing below trendline today shows some weakness in the rallyAlthough the closing on Nifty today was flat, as you can see from the chart closing was below a trendline which shows weakness. This weakness can lead to little more consolidation or can send Nifty searching for a substantial support. Resistance on the upper side seem to be at 25304 and 25337. Supports for Nifty are at 25241, 25197 below this level the major support for Nifty will be 25122 (Major support, Mother line, 50 EMA). If by chance 25122 is broken only 2 major supports will be at 25081 and 25005. Shadow of the candle as of now looks negative as of now.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Attempts of Nifty to break free not successfulNifty has attempted multiple times to break free and run wild but it has not succeeded. After making a new high there is consistent bout of profit booking seen. Over a few days now overall market breadth is not on the positive side. This phenomenon is natural when we are making new tops almost every day. Resistances for Nifty at this juncture are at 25330 and 25375. Supports for Nifty remain at 25242, 25193 (Strong support of the trendline) below this level major support will be near 25081 which is a combination of Mid channel support and Mother line support making it a very strong support. If 25081 is broken by any change 24993 will be the only major support remaining before the Nifty falls to Father line support or 24677. To know the importance of Mother and Father line support and to know about the Mother, Father and the Small child theory of stock market (formulated by me), you need to read my book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Flag & Pole Bullish Continuation Pattern for TomorrowFor tomorrow, focusing on the Nifty50 in a 15-minute timeframe, the price action indicates a potential continuation pattern known as the "Flag and Pole." This pattern typically suggests that the current trend is likely to continue after a brief consolidation phase. Below is a detailed breakdown of the possible price action: Technical Analysis Overview: Pattern Type : Flag and Pole (Continuation) Script : Nifty (Index) Timeframe : 15-Minute Chart Trading Type : Futures and Options (FnO) Price Pattern Characteristics: The Flag and Pole pattern consists of two key components: The Pole : Represents a sharp and strong directional move, typically upward, indicating a significant bullish sentiment. In this case, Nifty has exhibited a strong rally, forming the “Pole” of the pattern. The Flag : After the sharp rise, the price enters a consolidation phase with a slight downward or sideways drift. The “Flag” forms as price moves within a tight range, typically between two parallel trendlines sloping downward. Trade Setup and Expectations: The price is currently in the consolidation phase, creating the Flag. This temporary pause is likely to be followed by another bullish move, resuming the earlier uptrend. Breakout Confirmation: The key level to watch is the upper trendline of the Flag. A breakout above this level, coupled with strong volume, would signal the continuation of the uptrend. Possible Targets: Target 1 (T1): 25100 Target 2 (T2): 25200 Stoploss : 24970 These targets are based on the measured move concept, where the height of the Pole is projected from the breakout point. Risk Management: Given the nature of this continuation pattern, it’s crucial to wait for a confirmed breakout with volume before entering the trade. Set a stop loss slightly below the lower trendline of the Flag to manage risk. Conclusion: The Flag and Pole pattern on Nifty's 15-minute chart points towards a bullish continuation, making it a favorable setup for FnO traders. However, ensure proper risk management, as patterns may fail or face unexpected market influences. This analysis should be taken as a probable scenario rather than an exact prediction, with adaptability to real-time price action being key. Disclaimer : DO NOT FOLLOW THIS STUDY BLINDLY. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE TAKING A TRADE.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Amankuckreja
3
Solid closing above important Fibonacci level of ATH. Nifty has given a solid closing above previous ATH and important Fibonacci level showing growing momentum. A new All Time High was made today at 25192.90 for Nifty which closed strongly at 25151.95. Now there is a strong support zone for Nifty between 24998 and 24933. 24933 happens to be 50 EMA (Mother's line) as well as mid channel support. This resistance will be tough to conquer for Bears. In case there is closing in an unlikely event below 24933 the next support will be at 24716. On the upper side the next resistances will be near 24193 (weak resistance of ATH). 25294 and finally 25411. 25411 is an important Fibonacci resistance which will be tough to conquer. In case we get a closing above 25411 next month or so the doors for 25840 in the medium to long run will open. words of Wisdom: All The boats go up in a tide so go for fundamentally strong stock which have good thematic future rather than momentum traps. Pick Fundamentally strong stocks which are giving a technical breakout. To know more about stock selection read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available on Amazon.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty not closing above 25078 is not a good sign.Nifty not able to close above 25078 after making a high of 25129 is not a good sign. It showed a kind of weakness in the rally which can send Nifty downwards searching for the support. Supports for Nifty currently are near 24960 and 24857. Resistances on the upper side are now between the zone of 25078 and 25129. Once we get a closing above 25129 the door going towards 25276 or even 25411 can open. Right now the shadow of the candle is looking slightly red in colour that is negative.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIFTY Podcast 26 Aug 2024Again on NIFTY, took only 1 trade with Gap up/down strategy. 1:1 target achieved right away in the second candle itself. Notes: - Closed early due to peer pressure of reaching or closing the targets. Next time, will mute all groups or channels to focus on the trade itself. - There was another entry based on podcast strategy, but neither it hit the target nor it hit the stoploss. Second trade can always be debit spread or credit spread to avoid loss in the decay in the premiums of naked buying options.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by gupshupblog
How the FII-DII Tug of War Could Shape Nifty 50's Future Good Afternoon TV Family, Summary: The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, global equity markets could experience a shake-up. In this idea, we delve into how a U.S. rate cut might trigger foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to rethink their allocations and the crucial role domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail flows will play in stabilizing Nifty 50. Let's explore the dynamic between FII outflows and DII buying, and how this tug-of-war could impact the Indian equity market. Lets Deep Dive : 1. Jackson Hole Meeting and Rate Cuts: If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25-50 basis points, it would signal an accommodative stance aimed at supporting economic growth or preventing a slowdown. Lower interest rates generally boost equity markets because they reduce the cost of borrowing and make risk assets like stocks more attractive compared to bonds or cash. US Equities: A rate cut would likely be bullish for the US stock market. Lower rates improve corporate profitability, make borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, and reduce the yield on bonds, encouraging investors to shift to equities. This should lift major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. 2. Impact on Global Markets: Global Spillover: A strong rally in the US equity markets often leads to positive sentiment spilling over to global markets. Optimism in the US can create a "risk-on" environment where investors globally are more willing to take risks in equities and emerging markets. Currency Impact: A rate cut might weaken the US dollar, which could benefit emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee. A weaker dollar generally supports emerging markets by making their debt cheaper to service and boosting exports. 3. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) Impact: Capital Reallocation: A rate cut in the US could lead to a reallocation of capital by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). If US markets become more attractive due to lower rates and expectations of better returns, FIIs could redirect funds from emerging markets like India back to the US. Risk of FII Outflows: Historically, when the US markets become more attractive, FIIs tend to pull capital from riskier emerging markets to take advantage of the safer and more promising environment at home. If FIIs reduce their exposure to India, we could see short-term pressure on Indian equity markets. FIIs vs. DIIs: The Balancing Act FII Dominance: Historically, FIIs have had a significant impact on Indian equity markets due to their sheer scale. Large-scale selling by FIIs can cause downward pressure on the markets, and in periods of uncertainty or risk aversion, they often pull out capital quickly. DII Counterbalance: On the flip side, DIIs (including mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) have grown stronger in recent years. While they may not match the FIIs in volume, their growing influence means they can absorb some of the selling pressure. In fact, DIIs often act as stabilizers when FIIs sell aggressively. 4. DII Firepower and Their Role DIIs’ Buying Capacity: DIIs have been steadily increasing their presence in the market, supported by growing retail participation via mutual funds and SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) inflows. Monthly SIP inflows in India have consistently been hitting record levels (e.g., over ₹15,000 crores). This gives DIIs a significant pool of funds to deploy, which can offset some of the FII selling pressure. Insurance and Pension Funds: In addition to mutual funds, large domestic players like insurance companies (e.g., LIC) and pension funds have deep pockets and tend to be more long-term focused. They can step in to support the market during periods of FII outflows. 5. FII Selling vs. DII Buying: Historical Context In recent years, there have been several instances where FIIs have sold heavily, but DIIs have stepped in to absorb some of the selling pressure. For example, during periods of global uncertainty (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic or geopolitical tensions), DIIs have been active buyers when FIIs were selling. However, the degree of balance between FIIs and DIIs is critical. If FIIs engage in a prolonged or aggressive selling spree, it could overwhelm the DIIs' ability to absorb all the outflows. In such cases, the market could still see a downward correction, albeit potentially less severe due to DII intervention. 6. Retail Investor Participation Growing Retail Participation: While individual retail investors may not have the power to single-handedly stop a market decline, their cumulative impact through mutual funds and SIPs is growing significantly. Retail participation has become more pronounced in the Indian markets, with a steady flow of domestic savings being funneled into equities. SIP Flows: Monthly SIP inflows have created a steady and predictable stream of liquidity for the market. Even during periods of FII outflows, DIIs can rely on these inflows to buy equities and stabilize the market. While this might not entirely counterbalance FII selling, it provides consistent support and can cushion downside moves. 7. Role of Mutual Funds and SIPs Mutual Funds and SIPs: With SIP flows providing a reliable source of funds, DIIs can manage their buying strategies more effectively, especially during periods of volatility. This has been one of the reasons why the Indian markets have remained relatively resilient in the face of global shocks. SIP Inflows’ Resilience: SIPs are typically long-term, driven by retail investors who are less likely to pull out during short-term corrections. This means that mutual funds have a steady flow of capital to deploy, which can help support the market over time, even if FIIs sell off in the short term. 8. Indian Market Reaction: Short-Term Negative Impact: The Indian markets might see a negative reaction in the short term, particularly due to potential FII outflows and global investors reallocating capital to US equities(not a must but a possibility). However, this will depend on the scale of the US market rally and how much FII sentiment is swayed by the rate cut. Longer-Term Outlook: In the longer term, India remains a strong emerging market story with robust growth potential. So, while there might be short-term downside due to FII outflows, domestic factors like earnings growth, reforms, and economic resilience could offset the impact over time. 9. Potential Limits of DII Support Magnitude of FII Selling: If FIIs engage in heavy and sustained selling (e.g., billions of dollars in outflows), DIIs may not have the capacity to fully absorb the impact. In such cases, the market would likely see a correction, and DIIs would focus on selectively buying stocks where they see long-term value. Global and Domestic Factors: DIIs’ ability to support the market also depends on the broader domestic economy, liquidity conditions, and global sentiment. For instance, if global markets are in turmoil, even DIIs might become more cautious, limiting their ability to counteract FII outflows. 10.Other Considerations: Sectoral Impact: Some sectors in the Indian market, such as IT services, might benefit from a weaker US dollar and stronger US growth prospects, while rate-sensitive sectors (like financials) could face pressure from FII outflows. Central Bank Response: The RBI may also factor in the Fed’s decision when considering its own interest rate policy. If FIIs withdraw capital, the RBI might need to adjust its stance to support the rupee and maintain financial stability. 11. Sectoral Impact Different sectors of the Indian economy could experience varying effects based on these developments: IT Sector: Indian IT companies could benefit from a weaker dollar, as a strong US growth outlook would drive demand for IT services and outsourcing, positively impacting the sector's earnings. Financials: Rate-sensitive sectors like financials could face short-term pressure due to FII outflows, but DIIs and retail inflows could stabilize them in the medium to long term. Export-Oriented Sectors: Export-driven sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and automobiles could see a boost from a stronger rupee and weaker dollar, enhancing their competitiveness globally. Summary & Conclusion: A. Short-Term Risk: A Fed rate cut could lead to short-term selling pressure on Indian markets due to FII outflows, as investors chase better returns in the US. B. Global Risk-On Sentiment: However, if global sentiment improves significantly, emerging markets might benefit indirectly from stronger global growth prospects. C. Domestic Strength: India’s strong domestic fundamentals should eventually provide support, even if there is an initial dip due to global factors. D. DIIs can provide significant support to the market and act as a counterbalance to FII selling, especially due to consistent retail inflows via mutual funds and SIPs. However, the extent to which DIIs can offset FII outflows depends on the magnitude of the FII selling. In a severe selling spree, even strong DII buying might not fully prevent a market downturn, though it could cushion the impact. E. Retail investors, through mutual funds and SIPs, have become a crucial source of liquidity, helping DIIs stabilize the market, but the balance between FII outflows and DII inflows is key to determining market direction. Thank you for reading, Now let's just brush up on technical's : 1. If the index moves up which is only possible above 24900 zone then we have : 25460 to 25560 which is immediate upside levels, above that it might move further upside as per chart around 29K. 2. If breaks down and starts declining then : 24350 to 24400 zone should be a immediate support, if breaks below then 24180,23630,23180 worst case will be 22730. Let's see how this all works out. Once again Thank you for taking your time to read. If I am wrong any where please do leave a comment to correct me. PS: The above idea and thoughts are purely educational and do not consist of any financial advise or investment. Please do consult your financial advisor for any investment.
NSE:NIFTY
by Tron029
2
Nifty at mid channel support trying to cool down RSI. Nifty is currently resting on the mid channel support and is trying to cool down overheated RSI. This consolidation is necessary before it can march further. Earlier in the day RSI had reached over heated zone of 75+. Currently the RSI has cooled down to 67.89. Further consolidation will be good for the market before it's next leap towards 25K+ again. The new channel top seems to be near 25.41K. In the medium to long run the Nifty has potential to reach anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K within this year or within this financial year. Supports for Nifty currently are near: 24738, 24652, 24601 and 24409. 23893 will be a critical support closing below which the Nifty rally can turn bearish. Resistances For Nifty on the upper side are at: 24869, 24949, 25078 and finally Channel top resistance near 25411. Closing above 25411 will open our gates for new target which can be anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow: Levels for 23 August, 2024Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow: Levels for 23 August, 2024 Sideways today! But, all CE buying side targets have been met and a small position of the CE monthly trade is still open with open target. Trailing Stoploss : 24,687 Resistance: NONE, all CE side targets met If the price crosses and closes below the Risological Trendline, I will be looking at buying PE side position. Till then, Iam gonna enjoy the CE side profit. Good luck
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ProfitsNinja
NIFTY Podcast 22 Aug 2024Total 2 trades were taken today. 1st trade was based on Gapup/down strategy with R:R of 1. Although the outcome wasn't in the trade's favor, so closed along with the second trade. 2nd trade was on Podcast levels, the OI data was negative and there was huge Call writer on 28500 CE side, so took the trade with R:R of 1. Closed the trade with profit of only 3 points, but based on position sizing had taken with 4 lots. Notes: - Instead of Naked buying, Credit Spread would have worked in the favor for the 1st trade as today was the expiry of Nifty.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by gupshupblog
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 21/08/2024🔔 Nifty Update for Today: 📈 Gap-Up Opening Expected: Expected Opening Level: Near 24700 Key Level: 24700 Potential Upside Target: 24850 Nifty is expected to open with a gap up near the 24700 level today. If the index sustains above this level after opening, we could witness a strong upside rally, potentially reaching up to 24850 during the session. 📉 Watch for Downside Risks: Critical Reversal Level: 24650 Support Level: 24500 However, if Nifty starts trading below 24650, downside movement may occur. The 24500 level will serve as an important support in today’s session.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
Gap generated on 5th August Finally Filled today. Gap generated due to gap down opening of 5th August is finally filled today. It is not necessary that all gaps either on the way up or on the way down are filled every time. As there are different type of gaps and different timings of gaps / intervals etc there are many factors which create loop holes in the gap theory. We will discuss that some other time. Gap Theory is a subject in itself. The supports for Nifty now are at 24517, 24324 and finally 24088. Resistances for Nifty in the short to medium term are at 24736, 24857, 24950 and 25080.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 19/08/2024🔔 Nifty Update for Today's Session: 📈 Gap-Up Opening Expected: Opening Level: Near 24550 Key Level: 24550 Potential Upside Target: 24850+ In today’s session, Nifty is expected to open with a gap up near the 24550 level. If Nifty can sustain above this level after opening, we could see an upward movement, potentially reaching 24850 or higher. 📉 Watch for Reversal: Critical Level: 24450 Potential Downside Target: 24200 However, if Nifty reverses and starts trading below 24450, a downside rally may occur, with the index potentially declining towards the 24200 level.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
#Nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 19-23rd Aug 2024#Nifty 50 index concluded the week on a positive note, climbing 174 points to settle at 24,541. The index danced within the anticipated 25,150-23,800 range, as predicted in the previous analysis. For the upcoming week, a similar trajectory is expected, confined between 25,200 and 23,900 . A breakout from either end could ignite significant volatility. The broader bullish trend persists on both weekly and monthly charts, offering a comforting backdrop. A decisive daily close above 24,700 would be a key indicator, potentially propelling the Nifty towards 24,860, 24,950, or even the all-time high of 25,078. However, breaching the 25,200 level appears challenging at this juncture. The S&P 500 also mirrored a positive week, gaining 210 points to close at 5,554. Intriguingly, this settlement is near the July 26th high, a level that previously triggered selling pressure. A sustained position above 5,570 could pave the way for a move towards 5,620 or 5,637. A consecutive close above the crucial Fibonacci level of 5,637 would open doors to 5,700, 5,806, and ultimately, 6,142, potentially boosting Indian equities. The bottom line remains unchanged: as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 mark, the bullish outlook prevails.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11