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Dynamics of NIFTY50 21750 March 2024 Call OptionDate: 20-03-2024 As a seasoned derivatives trader, I find myself constantly immersed in the intricate dance of market movements, option data, and technical analysis. Today, I delve into the world of NIFTY50 futures and options, particularly focusing on the March 2024 contract. Join me as I unravel the insights gleaned from my custom-built software, MRISKA DTS5, and share my perspective on the probable expiry level in terms of the strike price for this contract. Let's embark on this journey by stepping back to the 29th of February 2024, the day the Nifty50 February 2024 contract expired. On that date, the Nifty50 spot settled at 21982.80, setting the stage for our analysis. One of the key observations from my data exploration was the significant short buildup in the 21750 call option . The 21750 call option caught my attention with its last traded price of 626.10 and a stop loss level of 922.30, valid until 28th March 2024. Tracking its performance from 29-02-2024 to 20-03-2024, the option saw its highest high at 915.00 on 06-03-2024. Fast forward to today, the Nifty50 spot closed at 21839.10, while the 21750 call option stood at 262.40. At this juncture, two distinct possibilities emerge. The first scenario entails the 21750 call option hitting the stop loss level of 922.30 by 28th March 2024. This outcome would signify a substantial move in the market, reflecting the dynamic nature of derivatives trading. Conversely, the second scenario revolves around the Nifty50 spot settling below 21750 by the contract's expiry. This scenario hinges on various factors such as market sentiment, economic indicators, and global events that can influence market movements. It's crucial to emphasize that my analysis and views are purely educational and should not be construed as trade recommendations. Derivatives trading demands a comprehensive understanding of risk management, market dynamics, and thorough research, which are essential for informed decision-making. In conclusion, navigating the complexities of NIFTY50 futures and options requires a blend of data-driven insights, technical expertise, and a nuanced understanding of market behavior. As we approach the expiry of the March 2024 contract, the unfolding dynamics will offer valuable lessons and opportunities for traders and investors alike. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to explore the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets.
NShort
by IndexAce
Navigating Volatility: Positional Strategies for MarchWork religiously irrespective of temporary failures, have risk management systems in place As a seasoned derivatives trader with over a decade of experience, I find myself continuously drawn to the dynamic nature of the market. Inspired by familial ties and fueled by a passion for challenge, my journey into this realm began with humble internships and has evolved into a successful career within reputable broking firms. Today, I stand firm in my enthusiasm for derivatives, where each trading session offers renewed excitement and abundant opportunities for growth. Futures and options are highly volatile so one should not assume that they know everything from day one. My journey has seen a fair amount of ups and downs, but it has all been a great learning experience at the end of the day. The most important thing is that I have been willing to learn something new every day. I also make sure to have risk management systems in place before taking a position. This makes losses bearable and the victories more joyous. Advice to women who want financial freedom and are very excited to enter the derivative field? Continue working your way religiously irrespective of temporary failures. Maintain discipline and do a lot of preparation before entering the markets. Learn to embrace the fact that one bad day or one wrong trade does not define the rest of the year, if you have been disciplined. Expect the Nifty 50 climbing above 23,000 in March after reading options data? As per my analysis, I was looking at Nifty targets till 22,500 – 22,800 first. Any further correction or upside will be re-evaluated then. Top two positional bets for March and why? Since volatility is at its peak now, a good balance approach is important. Hence, my first pick would be as a defence play: Buy Dabur India with a support at Rs 525-520 zones and look for upside targets till Rs 585/600. Buy Glenmark Pharma with a support of Rs 920 and target of Rs 1,020/1,035. Nifty or Bank Nifty strategy for next week? FIIs net long position as on date is at 40 percent, which is quite steady. If it crosses 45 percent, then a strong short covering rally can come which will propel markets to a new highs and Nifty can test 23,000. Bank Nifty is also on a strong momentum and can move towards 49,500/50,000 zones from here. We have been recommending largecap private banks and PSUs to our clients on a regular basis, and I still feel Axis Bank and SBI can see further meaningful upside from here in the March series. The other sectors participating strongly now are chemicals, FMCG, technology, energy. So, I retain my view to go long in Tata Power, Reliance Industries, SRF, GNFC, Infosys, and Birlasoft. For option traders, Bull Call spread on Nifty monthly expiry with 22,500 CE buy and 23,100 CE sell can be done (do not forget to keep stop losses as per risk appetite). A Bull Call spread comprises buying one Call option with a lower strike price and simultaneously selling a Call option with a higher strike price. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Implementing a stop-loss strategy to mitigate potential losses in case of adverse market movements. Position Sizing: Adhering to proper position sizing principles to ensure risk is managed effectively and in line with overall portfolio objectives. Conclusion: In conclusion, my journey into derivatives has been marked by challenges, opportunities, and unwavering passion. As I continue to navigate the intricacies of this dynamic realm, I remain committed to embracing the unpredictability of each trading day, knowing that therein lies the potential for continued success and growth. Disclaimer: This trade idea is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by khushaljain023
2
Nifty50 Weekly Observations to assist with Options StrategyThe insight: Here's an analysis of 9 years of data of Nifty50, showing that Nifty50 gave a weekly gain >3.5% 19 times (i.e in 19 individual weeks). This is roughly 2 times a year, or 4% of times. Ideas to apply the insight: Credit spread, Iron Condor, etcetera etcetera. It helps to know what is the "maximum likely movement" that Nifty50 will give on a weekly closing basis to select the right "Call strike prices" to sell. Using this insight, one can short Call Option strikes that are >3.5% away from current price at the end of the week (for next week's expiry). This is a simple way to get 1-2% returns a week. A simple modification is to wait for Monday's day closing, and select a strike price 3.5% away from Friday's closing (to get higher premiums if Monday's closing is higher than Friday's closing). Why this can work: Option Sellers (usually) earn when market movements are not wild in 1 direction. Simply put, this is due to options decay (theta) and subsequent Out-of-the-money expiry of the strike price that Option Seller has shorted. We see that Nifty gives >3.5% close only about 2-3 times a year (avg of 9 years). Therefore, in theory, we are likely to make profits for 49 out of 52 weeks in a year if we choose to short "Call" strike prices that are 3.5% away from closing price on Friday. Word of caution: The analysis is for Nifty50 gain (i.e >3.5% move). This does not apply to Nifty50 crash. We should be mindful that crash intensity is stronger than gain intensity (because fear is greater than hope). So strong downside movements (crashes greater than 3.5% will require different analysis). It's a fool's errand to sell naked Call Options and hold overnight, as the losses can be huge (even though temporarily). Be gentle on your heart. It is advised to always hedge a Call Option short (which is why strategies like Credit Spread, etc. exist). Disclaimer: This is neither backtested on softwares/tools nor tested with live trades. This idea/insight is to help build/improve your strategy based on your trading style. Trade with poise.
NSE:NIFTY
by PriyadarshiDesai
1
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 21st Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 21st Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my view Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 20th Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 20th Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my view Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 14th Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 14th Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 13th Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 13th Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 10th Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 10th Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 9th Feb 2023 Expiry SetupNiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 9th Feb 2023 Expiry Trade setup Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 8th Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 8th Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 7th Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 7th Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 6th Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 6th Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 3rd Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 3rd Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 2nd Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 2nd Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 1st Feb 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 1st Feb 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 31st Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 31st Jan 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 27th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 27th Jan 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 25th Jan 2023_ExpiryNiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 25th Jan 2023 Expiry Tradesetup Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
Nifty Futures Key Trading Levels for 24th Jan 2023Nifty Futures Key Trading Levels for 24th Jan 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 19th Jan2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 19th Jan2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 17th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 17th Jan 2023 Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views. Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by sbkurandwad77