Bearish Outlook on Nifty – Based on Smart Money ConceptI'm seeing a clear downside setup on Nifty, with Smart Money indicating distribution and the market transitioning into a bearish trend.
📉 Target: 25,340
📍 Current Price: 25,474
🔍 Reasoning: Clear signs of institutional distribution and lower highs/lows forming. Smart Money is exiting, suggesting the beginning of a deeper correction.
Will monitor closely for any change in structure, but as of now, bias remains strongly bearish.
Niftyoutlook
Nifty Weekly Market Update – Brace for Bearish Momentum? Nifty ended the week at 24,837, down 131 points from last week’s close. It made a high of 25,246 and a low of 24,806, staying perfectly within my projected range of 25,400–24,500.
As highlighted earlier, Nifty has now formed an inverted hammer on the weekly chart — a classic bearish reversal candlestick. 🔍
📅 Flashback: On 6th July, I mentioned giving bulls 10–15 days of playtime. That phase seems to be ending. The monthly time frame remains bearish, and now the weekly chart is aligning, indicating a stronger downside risk.
🔮 What’s Next?
👉 Expect Nifty to trade between 25,300–24,400 in the coming week.
👉 A break below 24,400 could open doors to 23,900.
👉 If 24,400 holds, bulls may still have a chance to regroup.
🧠 Pro Tip: Only Nifty Pharma is showing resilience. Those looking for long trades should focus on strong pharma stocks — the rest of the sectors are showing bearish signs.
Meanwhile in the US:
S&P 500 hits another all-time high, closing at 6,388, up 90 points from last week. My long-standing target of 6,568 now looks well within reach.
But here’s the catch — despite US strength, it’s not supporting Indian markets. If US markets correct, expect intensified selling pressure in India.
🎯 Strategy for Indian investors:
Let the bears rule till 7–8 August. Stay alert, and be ready to grab high-quality stocks at bargain prices. This is not the time to panic, but to prepare smartly.
Long term Nifty Outlook Still upbeat. Long term outlook of Nifty is still upbeat. As you can see in the parallel channel in the weekly chart of Nifty. As you can see in the weekly chart Nifty attempted to break free above the Mid-Channel resistance went above it briefly but due to various geopolitical, Tariff and earning related concerns has not yet been successful. In a few years time the channel top can be around 30K and channel bottom seems to be around 21K. Supports for Nifty currently are near 24789, 24475, 23969 (Mother Line support of Weekly chart), 22920 and 21793 (Channel Bottom.) Below that 200 Weeks EMA ot the Father line is at 20577. Resistances for Nifty with long term perspective remain at 25351, 25780 and previous All time high of 26277. Once we get a weekly or monthly closing above 26277 the doors towards 27K+ will open.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Next Week: Can Nifty make a comeback after drubbing?Nifty received proper drubbing after falling below critical supports of Mother and Father line. Trump's warning signals for IT companies and the continuing deadlock in Trade deal with US weighing on Indian markets. Additionally the earning season also giving many disappointing and few good result has broken the back of the Bull rally and now Nifty is reeling under 25K levels.
Only silver line in the cloud seems to be that RSI is below 30. Currently RSI is at 27.52. Usually RSI has found support near 24 if not 24 it might bounce back from 16. So hopefully we can see some short covering in the beginning or middle of next week. Also next week the decision for Tariffs should come. If the result will be in favour of India we might see a strong come back as lot of sectors / Large cap stocks currently are looking oversold.
The Supports for Nifty Remain at: 24808 (Strong support), 24633, 24459 Below 24459 the index will be in firm grip of Bears who might try to drag Nifty towards 24K levels or even below that in unlikely circumstances.
The Resistances for Nifty Remain at: 24933, 25058 (Mother Line Resistance of Daily Chart), 25119 (Father Line Resistance) and 25243. After we get a closing above 25243 the Bulls can gain some momentum.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Analysis EOD – July 24, 2025 – Thursday 🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – July 24, 2025 – Thursday 🔴
📉 A Surprise Expiry Collapse – When Strength Turns into a Sucker Punch
Today’s session was an unexpected twist.
Nifty opened above the previous day’s high, giving early hope to the bulls—but within the first hour, it slipped to 25,155 and formed its IB. What followed was a sharp 136-point fall, breaking not just yesterday’s low, but also the July 22nd low. This sudden bearish momentum was completely news-driven, and expiry-day long unwinding only added fuel to the fire.
Despite a strong close yesterday, today’s fall erased all of July 23rd’s gains and brought us right back to July 22nd’s close—neutralizing the recent upward effort.
The day closed at 25,062, marginally above key support. Technically, today’s low respected the 0.618 Fib retracement level drawn from July 21st’s low to July 23rd’s high—so a dead cat bounce is possible if no further bad news hits. But if we open below 25,050 tomorrow, expect more downside pressure toward 24,960–24,890 zones.
🕯 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 25,243.30
High: 25,246.25
Low: 25,018.70
Close: 25,062.10
Change: −157.80 (−0.63%)
Candle Structure Analysis:
🔴 Body: Large red body (181.2 pts) shows strong intraday selling.
☁️ Upper Wick: Tiny (2.95 pts) → sellers dominated from the start.
🌊 Lower Wick: Moderate (43.4 pts) → small recovery near close.
Candle Type:
Almost a bearish Marubozu — clear domination by sellers with barely any upper shadow, signaling intense sell pressure.
Key Insight:
Bulls lost control after open.
Bears took charge below 25,155.
Close near support, but bias cautious.
Bulls must reclaim 25,150+ for recovery, else 25,000 may give way.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 185.97
IB Range: 83.55 → Medium
Market Structure: Balanced
Trades Triggered:
⏰ 10:05 AM – Short Entry → SL Hit
⏰ 11:10 AM – Short Entry → Target Hit (1:3.6 Risk:Reward)
📊 Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
25,125
25,155
25,180 ~ 25,212
25,233
Support Zones:
25,080 ~ 25,060
25,020
25,000 ~ 24,980
24,967 ~ 24,959
24,882
🔮 What’s Next?
A gap-up or stable open may trigger a dead cat bounce toward 25,150–25,180.
A gap-down below 25,050 confirms bearish continuation → next targets: 24,960 / 24,890.
Watch price action around the 25,020–25,060 zone closely.
🧠 Final Thoughts
“Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.”
— Jesse Livermore
Today was a reminder of how expiry day surprises and news flows can flip the narrative. Stay flexible, and keep a bias—but not a blind one.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
Nifty falls again as it can not sustain above 25240 level. Nifty again has shown some weakness as it was not able to sustain levels above 25240. The fall was lead by IT index which ended with deep cuts and fell 2.12% the other indices that saw fall were FMCG, Realty and Small Cap index. Trump's stance against Tech companies hiring from India and the deadlock in the trade deal also contributed to fall today. Index fell 157.8 points today and ended below both Mother and line on hourly chart. In the daily chart the candle we saw today was a bearish engulfing candle so further weakness can not be ruled out. The 2 major supports for nifty remain at 25017 and 24956 if these two supports are broken we may see Nifty falling towards 24885 or even 24742. Resistances for Nifty remain at 25097, 25138, 25182 and 25246. Only after we get a closing above 25246 we can see Nifty rally upwards.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Strong Comeback by Nifty few Resistances ahead.Nifty made a remarkable comeback today ending 159 points up closing at 25219. Infosys has posted better than expected result and as of now the Infosys ADR is up by 1.26%. So if there is a turnaround in the IT sector we can see Nifty fly upwards.
The next resistance ahead of Nifty is at 25256 if we get a closing above this the next will be at 25328. These 2 will be critical resistances to cross. Once we get a closing above 25328 Nifty can target 25433 and 25544. Above 25544 Nifty becomes very strong. In case Nifty is not able to cross 25256 or 25328 levels the supports for Nifty are at 25182. After this zone there is a dual support of Mother and Father line of Hourly chart at 25136 and 25142.
These are very strong supports. (Thus the zone between 25182 to 25136 is full of supports). We hope that these supports are held. In case we get a closing below 25136 Nifty will again fall into bearish territory and can plunge towards 25081, 24994 or even 24885.
The shadow of the candles right now is positive but 2 very important resistances mentioned earlier are yet to crossed so game is in balance but only slightly in favour of Bulls.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Comprehensive Technical Analysis: NIFTY50 ₹25060.90 as of 22/07Long-Term (Monthly/Weekly) - SWING PERSPECTIVE
Trend & Structure:
Elliott Wave:
Primary Trend: Bullish (Wave 3 or 5 ongoing since 2023).
Current Phase: Likely final sub-wave (Wave 5) targeting ₹25,800–26,200.
Risk: Completion of Wave 5 may trigger a 10–15% correction (ABC pattern) toward ₹22,500–23,000 (38.2% Fib retracement).
Wyckoff & Volume:
Accumulation/Distribution: Monthly volume declining near highs → early distribution signals.
Key Level: Close below ₹24,800 confirms distribution phase (bearish reversal).
Gann Analysis (Price-Time Squaring):
Square of 9:
Key Resistance: ₹25,317 (√25,060 ≈ 158.3; 158.5² = 25,132 → 159² = 25,281).
Major Support: ₹24,649 (157.5²), ₹24,000 (psychological + Gann 45° angle).
Time Cycle:
Aug-Sep 2025 critical for reversal (90-day cycle from April 2025 high).
Ichimoku (Weekly):
Kumo Cloud: Price above cloud → bullish bias.
Lagging Span (Chikou): Above price (26 weeks back) → no congestion.
Warning: Tenkan (9) below Kijun (26) on weekly → momentum loss.
Moving Averages (Weekly):
Bullish Stacking: EMA(20) > EMA(50) > SMA(100) → trend intact.
Support: EMA(20) at ₹24,200
Medium-Term (Daily/4H) - SWING ENTRY
Candlestick Patterns:
Daily: Doji/Spinning Top near ₹25,060 → indecision.
4H: Bearish Shooting Star → resistance at ₹25,150–25,200.
Harmonic Patterns:
Bullish Bat potential (PRZ: ₹24,600–24,750).
Bearish Crab if price rejects ₹25,300 (PRZ: ₹25,280–25,350).
Gann Angles:
1x1 Angle Support (from June 2025 low): ₹24,900 (break → accelerates selling).
Price-Time Squaring:
24th July = 180° from Jan 2025 low → watch for volatility.
RSI + Bollinger Bands (Daily):
RSI(14): 68 (neutral-bearish divergence → weakening momentum).
BB(20,2): Price near upper band (₹25,200) → overbought.
VWAP (4H): Price above VWAP → intraday bullish, but divergence at highs.
Intraday (1H/30M/15M/5M)
Ichimoku (1H):
Tenkan (9) > Kijun (26): Bullish.
Kumo Twist: Support at ₹24,950 (cloud top).
Sell Signal: If price breaks below Kijun (₹25,010).
Moving Averages (30M):
EMA(20): ₹25,040 (intraday support).
Death Cross: EMA(20) < SMA(50) on 15M → short-term bearish.
RSI + BB (15M):
RSI(14): 72 → overbought.
BB Squeeze: Bands narrowing → expect breakout (bearish bias below VWAP).
Gann Intraday Levels (5M):
Resistance: ₹25,100 (1x1 angle), ₹25,180 (2x1).
Support: ₹24,980 (1x1 downside), ₹24,920 (2x1).
Synthesis & Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario (Swing):
Trigger: Hold above ₹24,900 (Gann 1x1) + RSI > 60 on weekly.
Target: ₹25,800–26,200 (Wave 5, Gann Square 159²).
Stop Loss: ₹24,650 (Harmonic Bat PRZ).
Bearish Reversal (Intraday/Swing):
Trigger: Close below ₹24,950 (Ichimoku cloud) + RSI < 50.
Target: ₹24,600 (Harmonic Bat), ₹24,000 (monthly SMA).
Stop Loss: ₹25,200 (Bollinger upper band).
Intraday Levels (23rd July):
Resistance Support
₹25,100 (1H VWAP) ₹25,000 (psych)
₹25,180 (Gann 2x1) ₹24,950 (Ichimoku)
₹25,280 (Sq9) ₹24,800 (daily pivot)
Key Risk Factors
Gann Time Cycle: 24–28 July = high volatility (price-time square).
Elliott Terminal Wave: Wave 5 exhaustion → strict stop losses.
VWAP Divergence: Failure to hold above VWAP on 4H → short.
Instrument: NIFTY50
Strategy:
Swing: Wait for daily close above ₹25,150 (confirms bullish) or below ₹24,800 (bearish).
Intraday: Sell rallies to ₹25,100–25,150 (RSI>70, BB squeeze) for ₹24,950.
Verified Tools:
Gann Square of 9 + Ichimoku for precision entries.
RSI/BB for overbought/oversold filters.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.(world wide web shunya trade)
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
world wide web shunya trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Nifty has taken support at Mother line as expected.Despite poor showing by Reliance post result and TCS continuing to fall Nifty staged a remarkable comeback on the back of Pvt Sector banking which did well. Bank Nifty came back strongly posting 1.19% gains today which enabled Nifty to rise 122 points or 0.49%. Capital Goods, Finance and Metals indices also gained more than 1% each.
Resistances for Nifty now remain at: 25150, 25277 (Trend line resistance), 25448, 25684 and finally channel top resistance at 25915.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 24938 (Mother Line Support of Daily Chart), 24759, 24503, 24259 and finally 24116 (Father Line support of Daily chart).
Shadow of the candle right now is neutral to positive and RSI is 47.63 with median RSI resistance at 54.09.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Wkly Market Wrap: Nifty Under Pressure, S&P 500 Hits Record HighThe Nifty 50 closed the week at 24,968, down 180 points from the previous week's close. It traded within a tight range, posting a high of 25,255 and a low of 24,918—perfectly aligning with the range I’ve been tracking between 25,600 and 24,700.
As I’ve been highlighting over the past few weeks, the monthly chart continues to show weakness, and now even the weekly chart is starting to reflect bearish signals. This growing weakness is a notable concern.
What to Watch for Next Week:
If Nifty sustains above 25,100, we could see a potential rebound toward the 25,400–25,450 resistance zone.
However, a breakdown below this week's low of 24,918 opens the door to a retest of key support near 24,500.
What’s interesting is that, despite Nifty’s indecision, the number of bullish stocks on the monthly time frame has increased significantly. Last week, there were 18 such stocks on my radar; now that number has jumped to 26, even after excluding about 10 others that showed bullish patterns but had high volatility.
This divergence—index showing weakness while quality stocks turn bullish—could indicate a possible bear trap being set by institutional players. If true, we might see a sharp short-covering rally after a final shakeout.
Nifty Outlook:
For the upcoming week, I expect Nifty to remain range-bound between 25,400 and 24,500. A decisive breakout or breakdown from this range could lead to sharp directional movement, so traders should stay alert.
Global Markets: S&P 500 Soars to New Highs
The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 6,296, with a weekly high of 6,315 and low of 6,201. The index remains in strong uptrend mode.
A breakout above 6,315 could see it testing 6,376, 6,454, and potentially 6,500 in the coming sessions.
My next major Fibonacci target is 6,568.
As long as 6,149 holds on a weekly closing basis, I continue to view every dip as a buying opportunity.
Final Thoughts:
The Indian markets are sending mixed signals, with the broader index showing caution while individual stock strength is quietly building. This divergence warrants a tactical approach—stay nimble, respect levels, and be ready for sharp reversals or breakouts.
Next week could be crucial. Stay focused, stay disciplined.
Can Reliance and Banks turn Nifty around? do or die Monday. Nifty as of now has taken support at Mother line in daily chart. As expected in my Yesterday's message. So Hopefully if Big Banks Results are in line tomorrow we might see Nifty going upwards from Monday.
Mota Bhai just announced the results. EBITDA is slightly less than expected but Net Profit and Revenue is much better than Market expectation. In my view market should react positively to this result.
Supports For Nifty remain at 24932 (Mother line), 24759, 24503. As indicated earlier if we get a closing below 24503 we may see a Fall towards 24106 or 23929 (In unlikely circumstances).
Nifty Resistances remain at: 25035, 25248, 25400 and 25613 (Channel top Resistance).
Results for tomorrow
HDFC BANK
ICICIBANK
AUSMALL BANK
RBL BANK
UNION BANK
YES BANK
CENTR BANK
PUNJA BANK
CENTR BANK
So it seems like a Do or Die Monday on cards. Shadow of the candle looks neutral as of now.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Analysis EOD – July 16, 2025 – Wednesday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – July 16, 2025 – Wednesday 🔴
"Bounce Back with Caution: Bulls Show Up, But Still Not in Full Control"
Nifty started the day on a flat note, but the opening candle turned out to be the day’s high, and from there, it quickly lost 91 points, marking the day’s low at 25,121 within the first hour. The early pressure gave a bearish opening tone, but bulls gradually stepped in.
Around 11:45 AM, Nifty broke above the VWAP–Day Low range, crossed the CPR zone, and then pushed toward PDH. It did make one attempt to break PDH, but failed, resulting in a slow drift downward toward VWAP and CPR into the close. The day ended at 25,212.05, nearly at CPR — a zone of indecision.
📉 The structure shows sharp reversal from the lows, but also clear hesitation near resistance zones. The session was volatile, forming a typical pre-expiry pattern with mixed sentiment. Bulls must take charge tomorrow by crossing the 25,250–25,260 zone to regain strength.
🕯 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 25,196.60
High: 25,255.30
Low: 25,121.05
Close: 25,212.05
Change: +16.25 (+0.06%)
📊 Candle Structure Breakdown
Real Body: 15.45 points → small green body
Upper Wick: 43.25 points
Lower Wick: 75.55 points → significant downside recovery
🔍 Interpretation
Market opened flat, dropped quickly to test 25,120 zone
Strong buying emerged after initial fall
Buyers lifted the index above CPR, but failed to hold breakout above PDH
Candle closes with long lower wick → buyers defended dip, but lacked closing dominance
🕯 Candle TypeSpinning Top with Long Lower Wick — often a neutral to mildly bullish candle, suggesting buying interest at lower levels, but with uncertain momentum.
📌 Key Insight
Bulls clearly defended the 25,120–25,125 support zone
Momentum will only resume above 25,250–25,260, leading to targets around 25,300–25,315
Failure to hold 25,120 could reopen downside toward 25,000–25,050
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 180.99
IB Range: 91.20 → Medium IB
Market Structure: 🟡 Balanced
Trades Triggered
11:34 AM – Long Trade → ✅ Target Achieved, Trailed SL Hit (R:R 1:2.42)
📌 Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance Levels
25,168
25,180 ~ 25,212
25,260
25,295 ~ 25,315
Support Levels
25,125
25,080 ~ 25,060
25,000 ~ 24,980
24,965
💭 Final Thoughts
“Structure is forming — but conviction is lacking. Let expiry day bring clarity. Above 25,260 we fly, below 25,120 we fall.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
Nifty Dips, Suggests Range-Bound Movement AheadIndian markets ended the week with a decline of nearly one percent, driven by lingering concerns over global tariffs and a weak start to the earnings season.
The 25,500 level has now turned into a strong resistance zone, marked by heavy call writing, while 25,000 continues to act as a solid support level backed by significant put writing.
Given these dynamics, the index is likely to enter a consolidation phase, with upcoming earnings announcements expected to keep sectoral volatility elevated.
Nifty at Make-or-Break Zone: What to Expect Next Week Markets eMarkets ended the week under pressure, with the Nifty 50 closing at 25,149, down 312 points from the previous week. The index traded within a tight band, hitting a high of 25,548 and a low of 25,129 — perfectly respecting the 25,900–25,000 range mentioned in last week’s analysis.
Now, Nifty finds itself at a crucial support level near 25,000. A rebound from this zone could trigger a short-term rally towards 25,500–25,600, which will act as immediate resistance. However, traders should proceed with caution, as the monthly chart remains neutral to bearish, indicating that this could just be a temporary bounce rather than a sustained uptrend.
Looking ahead, expect Nifty to trade within a range of 24,700 to 25,600. A breakdown below 24,700 could open the gates for deeper cuts, while a breakout above 25,600 needs to be backed by strong volume and participation to confirm a trend reversal.
Sector Watch: Reliance Shines Amidst Caution
Among the large caps, Reliance Industries stands out as the only stock showing strength on the monthly chart, while other heavyweights and key sectors continue to lack momentum. This narrow leadership is a red flag for broader market sustainability.
Global Markets: S&P 500 at a Crossroads
Globally, the S&P 500 closed at 6,259, down slightly from last week. What’s more important is the formation of a Doji candle — a classic sign of indecision. A move above 6,300 could lead to upside targets of 6,376 / 6,454 / 6,500, which would likely boost sentiment in global and Indian equities.
However, if the index slips below 6,150, it would mark a failed breakout, potentially triggering a global correction — a risk that Indian markets can't ignore.
Final Word
We’re at a critical juncture. While technicals suggest a potential bounce in Nifty from 25,000, the lack of confirmation on higher timeframes and uncertain global cues call for prudence over aggression.
👉 I’ll be staying out of the market this week. The setup doesn’t offer a favorable risk-reward, and in trading, patience is often the best position.
Let the charts speak. We’ll act accordingly.
Nifty approaching Mid-channel support zone now. Nifty after a 120 point negative closing is entering an important support zone. This support zone has 3 layers. The First of the support lies at 25322 which is just above the mid-channel. The second for Nifty is near 25222 which is just below the mid channel support.
There is a possibility of bounce either from the current level or either of these 2 levels. If we get a closing below 25322 then there is a possibility that bears might try to pull Nifty down towards 25167 which is the Father line or 200 Hours EMA.
The resistances for Nifty remain at 25404, 25437 which is the Mother line or 50 hours EMA. Post that there are resistances at 25477, 25551 and 25641. Closing above 25641 is required for Nifty to fly towards 26K levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Closing above 25544 should be first step for Nifty to break freeNifty today closed in positive but still it might not be free enough to crate further bull run. the first step that Nifty needs to take to get out of this range bound trade zone or consolidation is to get a closing above 25544.
Further to this step it my find resistances at 25597, 25672. Once we close above 25672 the possibility that Bulls can regaining 26K levels and go even higher becomes stronger.
The Supports for Nifty currently remain at 25471, 25437 which is Mother line or 50 Hours EMA, 25344, 25219 and finally 25125. 25125 is the Father line support or 200 hours EMA. Closing below 25215 will empower Bears to drag Nifty further down wards.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty in Volatile Range#NIFTY FUT– 25,508.0
S1 – 25,395.0
S2 – 25,348.0
R1 – 25,658.0
R2 – 25,718.0
Doji formation has seen post Red
candle with inline volume,
indicates consolidation on daily
chart. Nifty has closed above 7, 14
and 21 DMA that seen at 25487,
25337 and 25222 levels. Nifty
future has resistance at 25658
levels while support seen at 25395
level..
More support and Resistance Show in chart...
All information Education Purpose only
Nifty took support at the Mother line and trying to recoverNifty has taken support at the Mother line today and tried to post a recovery. Again proving our Mother, Father and small Child theory correct. To know more about the Mother father and small Child theory of stock market. Read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION. Nifty during the day made a low of 25378 and closed the day at 25453. It is not a strong recovery nevertheless the recover of 75 points recovery which makes shadow of the candle neutral to positive. Let us see if Nifty can recovery fully tomorrow or Friday to close the week in positive.
Nifty Supports remain at: 25396 (Mother Line Support which is also near the trend line support at 25378), there there is a support at 25245 and finally mid channel support near 25177. Closing below 25177 will make the Bears more powerful and they can drag the index further down towards Father line support near 25108.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 25470, 25528 (Trend line resistance), 25603 and finally 25679. 25759 seems to be the channel top currently in the hourly parallel channel.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty goes into consolidation mode to end the month at 25500.Today Nifty went into consolidation mode searching for the supports nearby after a massive upward run in the last week. Even though we saw Nift climbing down 120 points today the closing above 25500 is a good sign. It was a volatile day where Nifty made a high of 25669 and a low of 25473 moving 200 points down. But recovered a bit to close at 25517.
The Supports for Nifty remain at: 25450, 25321 (Mother line Support), 25133 (Mid-channel support). If that is broken the Nifty may fall further towards 24976 or 24956 (Which is the Father line support). Channel bottom seems to be at 24657. If we get a closing below this zone we will comment about further supports on the down side.
The Resistance for Nifty remain at: 24539, 24596, 25665 and finally 25712. (25712 seems to be the channel and trend top. Once Nifty closes above this zone we will be able to comment about further levels on the upside.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Market Recap: Nifty Breaks Out After 5 Weeks of Consolidation!The Indian stock market saw a strong bullish move this week, with Nifty 50 closing at 25,637, marking a significant gain of 525 points from the previous week's close. The index made a high of 25,654 and a low of 24,824, finally breaking out of the key resistance zone of 25,000–25,100 after five weeks of sideways consolidation.
This breakout is a critical technical development, signaling renewed strength in the broader market. However, to sustain this momentum and target the all-time high zone of 26,134–26,277, Nifty may need to either:
Consolidate within the previous week's range of 25,650–24,800, or
Retest the breakout level near 25,200 for confirmation.
Failing to do so could make this breakout a false one.
Weekly Outlook for Nifty:
For the coming week, the expected trading range is between 25,200 and 26,150. Price action around these levels will be key to watch.
On a broader sectoral view, out of 14 NSE indices, only Nifty Financial Services is showing relative strength on the monthly chart—a potential red flag for sustained bullish sentiment. When just one sector leads while others lag, it's often a sign to remain cautious.
Strategy Suggestion:
Consider booking partial profits and trailing stop losses on the remaining positions. Until the monthly time frame turns decisively bullish, it's wise to stay alert and manage risk actively.
Global Markets: S&P 500 Breaks Out!
In the U.S., the S&P 500 surged to close at 6,173, successfully breaking above its key resistance level at 6,013. This breakout, if sustained above 6,150 next week, opens up the path toward higher targets: 6,225 / 6,376 / 6,454 / 6,500.
However, traders should remain flexible. If the breakout fails, we could see a pullback to support zones near 6,013 or even 5,899.
Pro Tip:
Be ready to switch trading positions quickly if the breakout doesn’t hold—volatility is still very much in play in both Indian and U.S. markets.
The Nifty Futures Intraday Trend analysis on June 30, 2025According to my analysis and time cycle study, a Gap Down opening is likely on Monday, June 30, 2025. However, the intraday trend appears bullish. Key support levels are at 25,707 and 25,635, while resistance is seen at 25,788 and 25,808. I consider 25,808 to be a strong resistance level—if breached, it may trigger further bullish momentum.
The magnitude of the gap remains uncertain. These levels reflect my personal analysis and are not guaranteed.
Trading in Futures and Options involves significant risk. Traders are strongly advised to conduct their own technical analysis before making trading decisions.