Cup and Handle Formation in Nifty in Progress in the long run.Nifty Outlook: Nifty Looks good for a long haul in the long run. In the short term though Nifty seems a little bit of consolidation before it heads further. RSI on hourly chart shown a need of little bit of strength through consolidation. Which means we may see little bit sluggish end of the week tomorrow as Nifty is already in the resistance zone. This zone might not allow Nifty to escape the clutches easily. But if Nifty does escape this medium term resistance, It can fly ahead with even more power.
Medium Term Resistance zone: 17857 to 18100.
Long Term Resistances: Long Term resistances for Nifty lies at 18446 and 18887.
Medium term Supports: 17614 and 17314.
Long Term Supports: 16828 and 16520.
Long Term Targets for Nifty which it can reach within This year or by Second quarter of 2024 seems to be 19447 or on the upper side 20160. .
Niftyoutlook
An Equation of the Financial Markets in form of an Endless Loop.Elliot Wave Theory claims that Markets form similar patterns of formations on smaller time frames that are visible on higher time frames, (higher/lesser degree). Crowd behaviour which the theorist defined for traders or market participants is predictable in a manner that it ought to cause a definite result after each sequential or circumventing interval. First half of idealised Elliot Wave is Motive Wave, which consists of 5 kinds of movements but majority are in the direction of higher degree trend (3) and 2 the even movements are retracements or corrections from that higher degree trend. For example on a Monthly chart there is an Upward Trend in the markets then at weekly time frame motive wave would have 1,3,5 actionary movements in upward direction and two corrective movements in downward direction. Motive Wave is further categorised with Impulse Sub-Wave and Diagonal Sub-Wave. Impulse Wave is the normal Motive wave whereas the Diagonal Wave forms consolidation in a channel at 3rd level. The Cycle that I have marked on the chart is Elliot Wave Bearish Cycle which consists of 5 Motive Waves( 15 levels of downward trend and 10 corrective retracements in upward trend) plus 3 corrective Waves as in form of 2nd phase or 2nd overall wave of the Cycle. In my calculative assumption the Corrective Waves are ending ending 18200 levels for nifty and began at 16850. I hope I could make this loopic concept a bit clearer.
How much more Fizz left in the rally? The main question that is springing in every mind is that how much more Fizz is left in the rally? Is it a genuine back to bull market rally or should we consider it a relief rally only? We will know only if the critical resistance are crossed in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty Critical Resistances: 17639, 17720, 17804 (Major Resistance) ,18066, 18136, 18207 and finally 18292 (Major Resistance) .
Nifty Critical Support Zones: 17515, 17482, 17402, 17309 and finally 17210.
NIFTY strong REVERSAL candle on WEEKLY TF#NIFTY Strong reversal candle this week & long leg Doji on Monthly Chart after 3 Consecutive months sell-off!
If one had read the chart without any bias, the trend on weekly charts was up & not down.
Only a break below 16740-50 levels would mean a change in trend to downtrend.
The Price perfectly fulfills my last idea and moved towards the upside and also closes above the 17222+ On weekly chart. From the support zone of 16850 price moved towards the upside till the 17380+ with a bullish candle and price closes on positive note on weekly chart in the Friday session. After 3 consecutive red candle on weekly chart we closes in big green candle in the last week.
Now the price can head towards the 17555--17600 level to touch the upper downward parallel channel and if price go sideways for 1 or 2 days near the upper hand of parallel channel and than breaks the upper parallel channel and level of 17600 and sustain above it than we can see tremendous move towards upside and targets will 18000/18222+ In coming trading sessions.
If price unable to breaks the upper parallel channel and again respects it and face Resistance than we can again move towards the downside till the support level.
Nifty nearing a major resistance zoneNifty has come at the doorstep of Major resistance zone. This is the region between 17586 and 17812. This Zone is full of small and big resistances for Nifty. Momentum of Nifty is good but it will take some major effort in crossing this most important zone. In case this zone is crossed this week or later next week, the next resistance are near 17977 and 18125. Supports for Nifty are near 17514, 17478, 17417 and 17310. It is a critical day tomorrow as Friday we have very rare Second holiday of the week.
Market Outlook for 3rd to 7th April 2023. After consolidating for about 2 weeks Nifty Finally had a shackle breaking close to the week and month in the last couple of days where momentum totally changed and both FIIs and DIIs turned buyers simultaneously. While the closing of Nifty is good, a major resistance zone of 50 and 200 days EMA between 17478 and 17515 is there to be crossed. If this zone is crossed there will be another major resistance near 17618 which will be tough to cross. If we are able to cross 17618 Nifty will face a trend line channel top resistance near 17817. Bulls can be in full control only after these zones are crossed. Supports on the lower side now remain at 17300, 17204 and 17080. Let us hope that bulls can carry the momentum through to the next month and next financial year.
IF PRICE ACTION IS WRONG THEN I AM HAPPY TO LOOSE MONEY.Go short, I cannot shout more. A little change of direction does not hurt a trend, a trend takes huge momentum which is missing till now, DJI for instance has just retraced back from risk aversion levels of crisis haphazard, nonetheless they have shifted to uptrend no doubt but India lacks that fundamental support from Foreign Investments and also our Domestic Institutions have filled their belly of buying equities as much as possible. The index has a bit more room in downtrend, smaller up ticks would occur for sure but at the end April is going to be a BEARISH month.
Tomorrow might be a dropping expiry.Fibonacci Retrace tool is like a wonder in Century, I began to notice nowadays. So the Quadrants explained in the picture tells that the little but some bullish energies that have been lying near nifty option chain and FUTs, its because FIIs have lost most of their holdings in their sell outs and DIIs have to balance of their Balance Sheet before THE REAL EXPIRY OF FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS. But none the less GLOBAL powers are going in a SEESAW, Indices open higher due each other's end resulting cycle chain and mostly due to Dow Futures, then the Indices are hedged in shorting them because a lot of volume can be seen in Equity Shares. The weightage stocks take the Index Higher at that moment Hedge Funds short it and thats whats happening. So 31st March will be the day when this volume in equity will ran off and Indexes wouldn't fluctuate momentum like they have been. Lets hope today Dow returns negative because I have 10 lots of 17000 PE 6 April Expiry. :0
Until there is clarity there is chance of trend reversals.U.S. markets had started to recapitalise with strong volumes and Federal Reserve had yet again thrown the markets into dungeons, sentiments for far ended future is dark but calmness in Traders mind is soothing who do not indulge into straightforward long calls, and have fun with PUTS. Theme of Global Securities and ETFs is increasing at higher ends but Equities have shown bad faith to the Investors at large. Soon there will come another retracing peak and everybody will start to think the Downtrend ends here and Uptrend begins, it could be because it is much required and estimated now, not even now then when? But technical analysis is giving vibes of Shorting the NSE indices each and everyday, but fundamentally speaking going long is always the choice we all like and end up thinking more about it and then ultimately doing the human error. Bots are vitalised well enough to trade in any environment but are they configured to see an end of a trend and signal it to us? No only TA can do that.
Trading plan for 24th March 2023Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
NIFTY Monthly Divergence Indicates Bearishness for Months !!This is not to scare anyone ! But I have rarely seen any divergence on Monthly NIFTY50 chart. A monthly divergence indicates bearishness that might last for several months. Good thing is that, divergence has about 30% failures, and bad thing there is about 70% chances of happening this. My initial target would be about 15500 and further direction may be decided based on price action there.
Whats Happening on the weeklies:
Good thing is that, the early weekly candle appears it is getting rejected from previous weekly low of July 21. However, almost four trading sessions to go!!! Breaking these level would be more downwards. However, some pull back from this level is possible. The hourly chart below is also showing some bullish divergence, indicating some reversal from here. But God Knows how long that will hold.
nifty50 spot view in dcbNSE:NIFTY presently trading at around major support zone and as well as 50% fibonacci retracement zone, hence we may see a reversal move from hereon.
Disclaimer - This chart analysis is only for educational purpose. Do proper research before trade/investment or consult with your financial advisor. This expressed opinion/view/analysis isn't a trade/investment advice/recommendation. SEBI unregistered independent trader/analyst.