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Niftyoutlook

Further correction likelyNifty traded in the daily fair value gap and taking resistance at the mid of the long term upward channel yesterday. There are 2 scenarios that could play out. The unlikely of the 2 is it breaks the resistance trend line and move up towards the top of the channel. The second more likely scenario is that it could test the bottom of the fair value gap OR even come lower to test the order block below that. 22600 or 22500 could be likely in this case. Safe traders might withdraw their money form the market and wait for election results. This could trigger a deeper retracement.
NSE:NIFTY1!Short
by OldMonk13
Consolidation and profit booking phase in Nifty. Nifty is seeing a consolidation and Profit booking phase after making a new All Time high. There was a massive pressure seen across indices. This phase and volatility which we have seen off late can continue for a while till election results are declared and a little bit post results too. FMCG and Pharma were the only 2 indices which withstood the selling pressure but broader markets were seen bleeding a bit specially the cash counters. Next one week or so will test the patience of investors and speculation should be avoided. Stay away from high risk counters and derivatives if you are not an expert. Support for Nifty can be seen near 22864 which is rather a weak support. Next support is near 22767 which is considerably strong support of 50 Hours EMA (Mother line). If 22767 is broken further support can be found only near 22602 and 22489. This zone is a strong support zone having mid channel support of the current channel and 200 hours EMA. Resistance on the upper side for Nifty are at 22937, 22999 and 23053. Above 23053 Nifty will become little strong and Bulls can further take the index to 23108 or 23150 levels which will be a strong channel top resistance.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Short, Medium, Long Term 28-May-24 to 31-May-24Nifty Short, Medium, Long Term 28-May-24 to 31-May-24 Nifty closed at 22932 (22466) and touched low & high of 22409 & 23022 RSI and stochastics levels was up from last week (66 % & 86% Respectively). Stochastic in over bought levels (>90%) on 26-May-24 and started reducing on 27-May-24 Anticipation in Political results lifted the market as exit poll started coming. As mentioned in the past 1.5 month, Post govt budget, current govt proposed 100 days plan will lead the market in coming days. Investment decision is mixed as market will be highly volatile due to the above factors. Hence those people have high risk can sell partial stocks and book profit, those have more money to invest can wait for small dips to invest. As far as my opinion, if market touching 24000 can book partial profit and can wait for market to correct as there is a strong resistance in that zone. Nifty 22932- Short & medium term (Neutral ) nifty reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance target) again and crossed resistance decisively. Nifty at PE 21.5 below the Historical Average of 22.5 Short term support 22300-22400 Short Term Resistance : 23150 ( Trend Line as shown in chart) Medium term Support - 22160 ( Trend Line) and 20830 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Long Term Market expected range bound between 24000 ( Trend Line Resistance till Jun 2024) & Support at 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). All Companies so far posted results are average other than Bank & Finance stocks which posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance, Ultratech posted good growth. Other manufacturing, capital goods companies results are awaited in coming weeks. Nifty bank 49456 (48199) - As proposed from 47250 level nifty bank jumped more than 7%. Investment decision in Nifty bank, bank stocks helped in portfolio. Still can continue to invest whenever dip in bank and other nbfc stocks. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bank of Maharasthra ( Buy on Dips) ,Canara bank( Buy on Dips) can be accumulated slowly as well. Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, ICICI Securities. Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Apollo tyres, Biocon, Coforge & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quantities till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Nifty IT broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32919. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly considering 2-3 years. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.ifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 13-May-24 to 17-May-24 every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)As mentioned in the past 1.5 month, nifty reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance target) again and crossed the resistance decisively and touched 23000. Nifty at PE 21.8 below the 3 year Historical Average of 22.5.. Short term support 22312 (MA 50)- Nifty last week had a pause between 2220-22300/ 22050 ( Trend Line Support as shown) /21800 Medium term Support - 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Long Term Market expected range bound between 24000 ( Trend Line Resistance till Jun 2024) & Support at 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). All Companies so far posted results are average other than Bank & Finance stocks which posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance, Ultratech posted good growth. Other manufacturing, capital goods companies results are awaited in coming weeks. Nifty bank 48199(47421) - Nifty bank tested trend line support 47000 last week and later part of the week. Many bank & Finance stocks are buyable zone. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bank of Maharasthra ( Buy on Dips) ,Canara bank( Buy on Dips) can be accumulated slowly as well. Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, ICICI Securities. Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Apollo tyres, Biocon, Coforge & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quantities till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results. Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Nifty IT broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32919. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly considering 2-3 years. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.ifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 13-May-24 to 17-May-24 every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
Understanding the Bullish Momentum in S&P CNX NIFTY: AnalysisUnderstanding the Bullish Momentum in S&P CNX NIFTY: A Detailed Analysis The S&P CNX NIFTY, a crucial benchmark index in the Indian stock market, is currently exhibiting significant bullish momentum. With its spot price hovering around 22,957.1, close to the pivotal 23,000 strike price, there’s a clear indication of robust market activity and investor confidence. In this blog, we’ll delve into the specifics of this movement, examining the data on traded contracts, open interest, and changes in call options, to provide a comprehensive understanding of what this means for traders and investors. Key Data Points - **Spot Price:** 22,957.1 - **Strike Price:** 23,000 - **Max Traded Contracts:** 4,860,989 - **Call Open Interest (OI) (All Strike Prices):** 98,551.95 K - **Call Turnover % Change (All Strike Prices):** 152.79% - **Call Contracts % Change (All Strike Prices):** 150.70% - **% Change in OI (All Strike Prices):** 62.43% Breaking Down the Numbers Spot Price vs. Strike Price The spot price of the S&P CNX NIFTY is at 22,957.1, just shy of the 23,000 strike price. This proximity to a significant psychological and technical level suggests that traders are closely watching this threshold. It often acts as a key battleground for bulls and bears, influencing trading strategies and market sentiment. Maximum Traded Contracts A whopping 4,860,989 contracts traded at the 23,000 strike price underscores the high trading activity and interest. This volume signifies that a large number of traders are actively participating at this level, betting on the direction of the NIFTY. Call Open Interest (OI) With call open interest standing at 98,551.95 K across all strike prices, there’s a clear indication that traders are predominantly taking long positions in call options. This high open interest reflects expectations of further price increases, as call options provide the right to buy at a predetermined price, benefiting from upward movements. Surge in Call Turnover The 152.79% increase in call turnover points to a significant rise in the value of call options traded. This surge is likely driven by increased buying activity, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment. Traders are willing to pay more for call options, anticipating that the NIFTY will continue its upward trajectory. Increase in Call Contracts The number of call contracts traded has jumped by 150.70%. This substantial increase reinforces the bullish sentiment, indicating that more traders are entering the market with a positive outlook. The rise in call contracts suggests growing confidence in the market’s upward potential. Change in Open Interest The open interest has risen by 62.43%, showing that a large number of new positions are being created. This increase in OI is a strong signal of market engagement, with traders committing capital in anticipation of further price movements. High open interest typically correlates with increased liquidity and market depth. Conclusion The data paints a picture of a bullish market sentiment for the S&P CNX NIFTY. The close proximity of the spot price to the 23,000 strike price, coupled with high trading volumes and significant increases in call turnover, contracts, and open interest, all point towards a market poised for upward movement. Traders and investors are clearly optimistic about the NIFTY’s prospects, positioning themselves for potential gains as the index approaches and potentially surpasses the 23,000 mark. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook The bullish outlook on the NIFTY could be driven by several factors, including strong economic indicators, positive corporate earnings, or favorable market conditions. However, it’s essential for investors to remain vigilant, considering broader market trends and potential risks. While the data suggests optimism, market dynamics can shift rapidly, influenced by global events and domestic policies. Disclaimer This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Understanding market trends and data is crucial, but so is considering your risk tolerance and investment goals. By keeping an eye on these indicators and understanding the underlying market sentiment, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, leveraging the bullish momentum of the S&P CNX NIFTY to their advantage.
NLong
by ruelfernandes
ATH Breakout for Nifty but has the rally got more steam?Major ATH All Time high Breakout for Nifty today however Nifty could not cross the much coveted level of 23K. Can Nifty do to it tomorrow? has it got the steam? RSI is high indicating that Nifty is getting overbought and valuations of a lot of stocks are very pricey. However there might still be opportunity left in a few Large cap stock specially IT, Banking and Finance space which have fallen out of favour of investors lately. Valuations in some PSU, Mid and Small Case space are questionable currently and we advise keeping a strict trailing stop loss wherever you have good profit. Remember nobody has ever become a pauper by booking profits. Keep strict trailing Stop Losses. They are best friends. Loss in Profit is ok but Profit to loss is not ok. Nifty Major Supports levels: 22784, 22507 and 22298. Major Future resistance levels: 22293, 23060, 23208 and 23407.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Macro Monday 47 – Major Trading Opportunities In IndiaMacro Monday 47 – Major Trading Opportunities In India 10 Reasons why you need to pay special attention to India’s economy Before I start there will be major market opportunities in India that will present over the coming 12 - 36 months in India. As an investor or trader, you cannot ignore this market. 1. India is on track to become the world's 3rd largest economy by 2027, surpassing Japan and Germany (currently India is 5th). This provides a major 3 - 5 year potential investment opportunity in Indian index funds and specific stocks in India. 2. India overtook China as the most populous nation in world in April 2024 (1.435b vs 1.425b). 3. Approximately 65% of India’s population is below the age of 35, and half are below the age of 25. In years to come this will represent a larger innovative workforce with the potential for higher productivity and increased consumer demand from this younger demographic. 4. India has the fastest GDP growth in the world. A minimum of 6% in GDP growth is expected over the next five years, separating it from both the broader emerging market cohort and from slower-growing developed markets. We noted on last weeks Macro Monday that Brazil’s GDP growth was expected to range between 2 – 2.9%, India’s GDP is expected grow at twice this rate. 5. In the shorter term India has a major domestic election concluding in June 2024. Between 1999 – 2019 India's Nifty 50 Stock Index historically tended to exhibit a positive trend six months preceding and following federal elections. A 20.5%+ increase prior to Election conclusion, 3%+ one month after election and 14.4% in the 6 months post-election. Election Season is great for the Indian Stock Market and we are right in the middle of it. 6. India has emerged as a global economic player striking deals with the US, Russian and China, having exceptional relations with all three. India actively participates in international forums and in shaping economic policies. Its presidency of the G20 in 2023 showcased its economic prowess and diplomatic finesse. This all translates into India showcasing that it is in growth mode, but more importantly, that it is economically stable, diverse and reliable. 7. According to Blackrock their emerging market ETF inflows into Indian indexes exceeded $4.4b in 2023 whilst total flows into all other EM countries ETF's combined to only $1.1b, clearly demonstrating a major influx of capital into India ahead of other EM's. 8. Indian equities earnings estimates are predicting a market with potentially prolonged and stable earnings growth. Analysts are expecting general Indian equities to post 13.8% earnings growth in the next 12 months and 14.4% in the next 18 months. Longer-term estimates call for 14.5% year-over-year earnings growth by year-end 2026. There is an incredible opportunity for TA chartist’s and investors to move into individual stock selection with the wind at their backs as the Indian Economy moves into what maybe its golden economic era. 9. Over the past two decades, India’s main stock benchmark, the Nifty 50, has offered 15.0% annualized returns in USD terms, more than double the 6.8% offered by the majority of other global Indexes and this is expected to continue. 10. India has made remarkable progress in reducing extreme poverty. Between 2011 and 2019, the share of the population living in extreme poverty was halved. This trend emulates what China achieved between 1990 and 2011 when they halved the amount of people living in extreme poverty in China. In the decade that followed China became the world’s second-largest economy, surpassing Japan. As mentioned in No.1 above, India is expected to become the 3rd largest economy in the word, overtaking Japan by 2027. Now that we have a good understanding of this major positive macro-economic trend in India, let’s have a look at some general indices where some great opportunities are present. Please note that India is firmly on my Radar now and more specific equities charts will be posted as I discover them. Ishares MSCI India ETF - AMEX:INDA The iShares India ETF is an exchange-traded fund that aims to track the performance of the MSCI India Index. This index includes large and mid-sized companies in India's equity market. Here are the top 5 holdings of the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) along with percentage allocations and brief descriptions: 1. Reliance Industries Ltd (8%): Reliance Industries is a conglomerate with interests in various sectors including petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, telecommunications, and retail. It is one of India's largest companies by market capitalization. 2. ICICI Bank Ltd (5.36%): ICICI Bank is one of the largest private sector banks in India offering a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to individuals as well as corporate clients. 3. Infosys Ltd (4.41%): Infosys is a global IT consulting and services company that provides software development, maintenance, systems integration, outsourcing, and other technology-related services to clients across industries worldwide. 4. Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd (3.76%): HDFC is a leading provider of housing finance in India. The company offers various loan products and services to individual homebuyers as well as corporate clients engaged in real estate development. 5. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (3.23%): TCS is another major IT consulting and services company from India that offers a wide range of digital transformation solutions to global businesses across industries such as banking & financial services, manufacturing, healthcare, retail, and more. Please note that these holdings are subject to change over time based on market conditions or fund manager decisions, however this is on the 2024 prospectus. These could be good starting stocks for investors seeking to pick individual stocks in India as they have the backing of analysts in one of the largest funds in the world. The Ishares India ETF Chart SUBJECT CHART ABOVE ▫️ Price has broken to new highs and now bounced off the 21 week SMA. ▫️ A potential parallel channel break out with a target at c. $68.00. ▫️ Good risk reward on a potential trade at 4:1. Entry here at $52.97. ▫️ You could raise the stop to of approx. $50 and make it an RR 7:1. ▫️ The DSS Bressert appears to be crossing and about to move upwards but this is not a guarantee yet. This outcome would be ideal. ▫️ Price could revisit the breakout point at c. $50 - $51 which would be a more ideal entry but given the positivity in the Indian market, election season, the fact we are making new highs and are above the 21 SMA, coupled with a DSS Bressert cross looking likely, this is a very reasonable long term set up.A potential parallel channel break out with a target at c. $68.00. ▫️ Good risk reward on a potential trade at 4:1. Entry here at $52.97. ▫️ You could raise the stop to of approx. $50 and make it an RR 7:1. ▫️ The DSS Bressert appears to be crossing and about to move upwards but this is not a guarantee yet. This outcome would be ideal. Price could revisit the breakout point at c. $50 - $51 which would be a more ideal entry but given the positivity in the Indian market, election season, the fact we are making new highs and are above the 21 SMA, coupled with a DSS Bressert cross looking likely, this is a very reasonable long term set up. India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index - $NIFTY_MI The India NIFTY Midcap Select Index is a stock market index that represents the performance of 25 mid-sized companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. Stocks are selected from the Nifty Midcap 150 index based on availability for trading in the Futures & Options segment, market cap and average daily turnover. Stock weights are based on free-float market capitalization. Here are the top 5 holdings of the NIFTY Midcap Select Index along with percentage allocations and brief descriptions: 1. Indian Hotels Co. Ltd (7.1%): IHCL and its subsidiaries bring together a group of brands that offer a fusion of warm Indian hospitality and world-class service. These include Taj – the iconic brand for discerning travelers, SeleQtions, Vivanta, Ginger, and amã Stays & Trails. 2. Persistent Systems Ltd (5.69%): Persistent Systems is a global company specializing in digital engineering and enterprise modernization services. They offer solutions in banking, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and technology sectors. 3. Cummins India Ltd (5.65%): Cummins designs, manufactures, sells, and services diesel and alternative fuel engines, generators, and related components. They are known for their innovation in power solutions and corporate responsibility. 4. Lupin Ltd (5.40%): Lupin is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company and one of the largest generic pharmaceutical companies by revenue globally. Their key focus areas include pediatrics, cardiovascular, anti-infectives, diabetology, asthma, and anti-tuberculosis. 5. Housing Development Finance Corporation Asset Management Company Ltd (5.21%): HDFC AMC operates as an investment management firm, offering portfolio management and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies in India. Please note that these holdings are subject to change over time based on market conditions or fund manager decisions, however this is on the 2024 prospectus. The Chart ▫️ The India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index chart is more promising than the Ishares MSCI India ETF. ▫️ There is a defined upward channel under which the 21 week SMA is providing support. ▫️We have broken recent highs, local resistance and a have a DSS Bressert Cross turning up. All three are bullish signals. ▫️A great risk reward set up is available here at 11:1. You can alter this to suit your risk tolerance or how long you want to remain in the trade. I would be inclined to lower the stop because the RR is weighted heavily to the upside. ▫️It is possible that we get a retest of the breakout area also, but given the DSS Bressert Cross and upwards momentum, I lean more directly bullish. Indian Rupee (INR) Currency Risk There is a currency risk with the second trade in the NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index as it is denominated in the Indian Rupee (INR) which has been on a long term decline against the USD since Aug 2011. If we were to move to the bottom of the current long term pennant we could lose c.5% in currency devaluation in this trade. This could happen over a couple of months, so its something to keep an eye on. Here is the INR/USD Chart for reference: Summary: There is a unique opportunity to make significant returns from one of the largest and fastest growing countries in the world. I listed 10 reasons why India's economy has major promise: 1. Projected to 3rd largest Economy by 2027 2. Largest Population in the world (since Apr 2024) 3. 50% of population are <25 years of age, 65%<35 4. Fastest GDP growth in the world at 6% 5. Election Season = 14 - 17% return historically (within 8 months of current juncture in May 2024) 6. India's presidency of the G20 in 2023 showcased its economic prowess and diplomatic finesse. 7. Three times more capital flowing into India ETF's vs other emerging market ETF's 8. Analysts predict 14.5% YoY growth in Indian Equities. 9. Over the past two decades India's Nifty 50 has offered 15.0% annualized returns in USD terms 10. In India the share of the population living in extreme poverty was halved between 2011-2019 We then looked at two India Indexes that are looking very positive and have a great risk:reward trade set ups in the $NIFTY_MI and the $INDA. We also covered off some of the indexes individual holdings as these might be worth looking at. Finally we created awareness of the currency risk that exists on the $NIFTY_MI chart. If we want to take advantage of this blooming economy in more specific and targeted ways, we will likely need to trade in the Indian Rupee XETR:INR at some stage. So we need to be familiar with the chart and the currency. We projected that it could decline by 5% against the dollar over a 6 - 12 month period so this should be factored in. This is not a prediction. It could show strenght against the dollar and break out of its downward pennant. Time will tell. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the South America market has performed. I hope its helpful. PUKA
CBOE:INDALong
by PukaCharts
Technical Analysis: NIFTY 50's Recent Shifts and Future ProspectHello, TradingView community! Today, we're diving into a detailed technical analysis of the NSE:NIFTY index, which has shown some interesting movements lately. We'll break down the technical signals, look at the potential implications, and discuss what to watch out for in the coming days. 🔍 Overview of Recent Trends The NIFTY 50 has been following a well-defined upward trend channel over the past several months, making consistent gains each time it hit the upper boundary. However, recent patterns suggest a change in dynamics, which we need to scrutinize closely. 🔁 Current Technical Setup Most notably, the NIFTY 50 recently deviated from its usual pattern by not reaching the upper boundary of the trend channel before reversing its direction towards the lower boundary. This could be an early sign of weakening bullish momentum. 📉 Significance of the Double Top Pattern The formation of a potential Double top, a classic bearish reversal indicator, adds weight to concerns about a bearish shift. While this pattern is not yet confirmed—since we haven't seen a definitive breakdown below the neckline—it's a development that warrants attention. 📊 Intersection with the 100-day SMA The recent drop of -1.5% in the NIFTY 50 brought it down to the lower boundary of the trend channel, which coincidentally aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This SMA has historically served as a strong support level, often triggering rebounds. 🔄 Potential Outcomes Bounce Back: If the 100-day SMA and the lower boundary of the trend channel hold up, there's potential for the NIFTY 50 to rebound towards the mid or upper boundary of the channel. Bearish Reversal: A decisive close below the 100-day SMA & Neckline of Double Top could indicate a more significant Bearish Trend or the start of a consolidation phase. 🌐 Broader Market Context Quarterly Earnings: The index is feeling the pressure from non-impressive Q4 results for 2024. Lackluster corporate earnings can dampen investor sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of stock valuations. Volatility Index Rise: The NSE:INDIAVIX , which measures market volatility, is on the rise. This indicates increased uncertainty among investors, as they price in a higher potential for market swings. FII Activity: There has been significant selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), contributing to downward pressure on the index. FII flows are crucial as they represent substantial investment volumes and can influence market direction. US Federal Reserve's Stance: The hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve, signaling potential interest rate hikes, is also a critical factor. Higher US interest rates can lead to capital outflows from emerging markets like India as investors seek higher returns in US assets. These points illustrate how external factors are intricately linked with the movements of the NIFTY 50 index and should be considered when analyzing its future direction. 📈 Trading Strategy Recommendations For those actively monitoring the NIFTY 50, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the 100-day SMA and the lower trend line of uptrend channel. These areas serve as critical junctures that could determine the market's short-term direction. "In the world of Market, it's not about how much you know, but how well you understand what you know and how you apply it in uncertain times." To conclude, while the NIFTY 50 presents an intriguing technical setup, traders should proceed with caution given the current uncertainties and the index's recent behavior. This analysis is intended to enhance understanding and encourage informed decision-making. Keep watching these indicators and adapt your strategies accordingly to navigate through these potentially choppy waters. Lastly, thank you for your support, your likes, Follows & comments. Feel free to ask if you have any questions.
NSE:NIFTY
by AfnanTAjuddin
NIFTY BOUNCES from the ASTRA LineWe have been holding the LONG position (CE) from our entry on 14th morning. The price saw a downward movement today exactly touching the Risological Astra line and taking a bounce back upwards. Market has overall bullish sentiments especially considering the fact that the election results are nearing and this bullish momentum could be a hidden bullish divergence that we are going to see the next day after the election result. BJP wins = Market Bullish INDI Alliance wins = Market Crash So, big moves are coming soon in the market. Hold your breath, homies!
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ProfitsNinja
NIFTY 780+ Points and RunningGUY! Look what I ve been able to catch! 780+ points on NIFTY and still running. Closed position partially. 25% still open position, Iam gonna let it run till the price crosses above the Risological Astra dotted line. The Risological astra shows there is a little more room for a dip before a reversal. Let's wait and watch. Furthermore, the election results are round the corner, so expecting crazy moves soon. I will update with fresh opportunities. Watch this space or follow my profile to catch moves.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ProfitsNinja
Can Channel Bottom Support save Nifty?As you can see Nifty is resting very timidly at the bottom of the channel after confirmation of H&S Break down. Most of the indices were thrashed like bowlers are thrashed in IPL matches this season. If Nifty has to recover it has to be done in next couple of sessions that is Friday or Monday. If the current support around 21900 is broken the next supports are only at 21769, 21543 and finally 20991. Below these levels more pain will be there in the system and Bears will become even more powerful. Resistances on the upper side now are at 22096, 22231 (Mother Line Support) (50 EMA), 22311 and 22502. Shadow of the candle is looking negative but bears will try to give a fight for sure if not tomorrow very soon.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Falling down ... Falling down!!Nifty spot and FUT, both settled at crucial levels marked in our previous analysis. This is the level that has to be protected for Nifty to stay "NOT BEARISH" at least. Now with an even in sight, I am not sure how it will behave. My previous narrative was that Nifty would stay at ATH levels and with the election result, would fall. But now it seems like there is a different narrative playing out. In the opposite scenario, Nifty should visit 21750 levels and consolidate there, to rally on "surprisingly" (Sarcasm intended) good results for BJP with a stable Govt.
NSE:NIFTY1!Short
by OldMonk13