Very Important Fibonacci resistance level approaching in Nifty.Very Important Fibonacci resistance level 19448 approaching in Nifty. If Nifty can sustain above it above 19450 the doors will open for next Fibonacci level of 20162. I dare say Nifty needs some consolidation and RSI needs some cooling down before the next big leap. RSI is right now 74.85 and as soon as it touches 80, Nifty will enter Overbought zone if already it is not overbought. Investors should take care of their trailing stop losses. Take care of their profits by putting proper trailing stop losses/ stop losses. If Nifty jumps the resistance and sustains 19450 well and good but if not there should not be loss. Loss in profit is ok if a trailing stop loss is hit but important thing is profit should not become loss in case of correction.
Niftysupports
The hourly Channel broken on the upper side. What Next?The hourly channel that we were following since last 2 months or more has been broken on the upper side due to the ongoing mad bull run. The question that comes to various minds is what next for Nifty or where next for Nifty. To answer that we go back to the daily chart and apply simple fibonacci levels. Fibonacci levels on daily charts suggest the following supports and resistances:
Next Fibonacci Resistance at: 19448 followed by 20162 (Both have potential to be Major resistances with many minor resistances in between).
Fibonacci Supports: 18887.6 (previous Peak), 18446 (Major Fibonacci support and 50 days EMA very close to it), 17856 (Another Mega Fibonacci support with 200 days EMA very close by).
Momentum with Nifty, but it is approaching over-bought zone.Momentum is with Nifty, but it has reached or will soon reach the Zone which might be very close to the overbought zone. Relative Strength Index cooldown / consolidation might also be required for Nifty to scale further highs. If not tomorrow then later next week. RSI will do some catching up and Profit booking at higher levels like we saw towards the end of Wednesday can also surprise. Beware of the Bull trap in some shares with weak fundamentals which might also rise as if they are genuine dark horses. 19000-19020 is the resistance zone now. Top of the channel for current let of the rally can be 19080 to 19200 range. Support for Nifty is near 18945, 18887.6, 18839 and 18796. Bear right now are on Oxygen. Some signs of life can return only if Nifty closes below 18602. Till that time Bulls will be in firm control.
Our Chart continues to work perfectlyAs you can see and we had depicted yesterday Nifty had taken a firm support at 18646 and the only now was upwards. Despite negative to Neutral US markets Nifty opened gap up above what was 50 Hours EMA, confirmed support of the EMA at 18742 for few hours and then marched ahead. The march of Nifty was halted by the Mid-Channel Line resistance at 18829 and that is where Nifty cooled down a bit to close the day at 18817.4.
How is that for Precision? I hope you all are appreciating the efforts that we are putting in the analysis.
What Nifty holds for tomorrow? If Mid channel line (18829) is conquered tomorrow and Nifty hold above it, we will be sooner than later looking towards re-approaching the All Time high of Nifty and probably this time around Nifty might even break it and make a new high.
Resistances: 18829, 18840 and 18887.6. Post making a new high 18956 and 19018 can be very very tough resistances.
Supports: If the Nifty is not able to conquer 18829 to 18840 range and sustain above it the supports will be at 18795, 18742, 18646, 18576 and 18421.
18646 giving a great support can the rally re-launch from here?18646 giving a great support can the rally re-launch from here is the question now. Usually when index or the stock finds a proper support and investors feels confident about the support, there is a possibility of restart or re-launch of the rally from that region. Whether rally will be successful like the previous phase will remain the question. However if the rally re-starts the next resistance will be near 50 Hours EMa that is 18733. Crossing 18733 the most important ATH resistance zone of 18795 to 18887.6 awaits Nifty. Supports at the lower side remain at 18646, 18562 and finally the bears wake up if 18421 is broken.
Nifty Dives below 50 hours EMA After Failing to Conquer ATH. Nifty Nose-Dived below 50 hours EMA After Failing to Conquer All Time High which was within the touching distance. The factors responsible for the fall can be attributed to Hawkish stance of FED before July FOMC. Hawkish stance of global Central banks and Profit booking near all time high. Relative Strength Index of Nifty (RSI) also needed some cooling down.
50 Hours EMA is working as an important resistance now and today low of 18647 will be important support for Monday. If the support at 18647 is broken Nifty can languish upto bottom of current channel and 200 Hours EMA which is near 18554. If Nifty closes below 18554 final support for Bulls is near 18421 closing below which bears will spring back to life.
The Zone around ATH is proving to be a tough resistance. The Zone around 18862 and ATH of 18887.6 is proving to be a tough resistance to conquer. Nifty has so far made multiple attempts but has not been successful so far this week after coming in the touching distance couple of times. Once ATH resistance is crossed the next resistance will be near 18953 and 19018. But before we get there Nifty might again take a dip in search of a proper launchpad for that leap of faith. Global markets are expecting a hike by FED again in July FOMC as the action was PAUSE but commentary was hawkish. If that remains the case little bit of correction can also happen in Nifty. In such a scenario the supports this week will be 18827, 18790, 18756 and 18660. Below 18524 bear will try to snatch back control. Possibility of that happening is difficult this week. But we never really know.
The Question is When will Nifty Hit the All Time High? Nifty staged dramatic recovery in the afternoon today and covered shorts shocking the bears who were thinking of staging a comeback. Nifty hourly candle took support at 18660 and staged a mighty comeback of about 156 points to end the day at 18816 which is just below the resistance zone of 18842 and 18865. Final resistance will be 18887.6 which the the all time high of Nifty. Supports for Nifty are near 18790, 18752 and a strong support of 18726 followed by supports at 18660 and 18500. So the answer to the question The Question is 'When will Nifty Hit the All Time High?' is very soon. It can be later this week it can be tomorrow.
Again invariably Mid-Channel line comes to rescue. Again invariably Mid-Channel line comes to rescue as the NIFTY failed to make new All Time High today after coming very very close to the top. When you are near the top or while bottom is forming volatility will be at it's peak as near the top there will be profit booking and near the bottom there will be loss boking. Spot Nifty Supports and resistances are as under:
Nifty supports: 18717, 18637, 18555 and finally 18482. Below 18482 Bears will come out of coma and will try to regain control.
Nifty Resistances: 18784, 18826, 18865 and finally 18887.6 (Previous Top).
Top of the current channel can be between: 18887.6 and 19020.
Nifty at Mid-Channel Key Support Zone. Can it aim for ATH?Mid-Channel Key Support Zone for Nifty. Can it aim for All time high taking support from here? It is quite possible. Key resistances will be 18717, 18798, 18831 and finally All time high 18887.6. Key supports for Nifty 18672 (Major support which should not be broken). 18639, 18555 and 18512. It is mostly matter of time when Nifty will reach all time high, rather than will it reach all time high.
18768 to 18778 proving to be resistance once again. The Ten point range between 18768 to 18778 proving to be resistance once again. Nifty however closed above the strong support of 18728. Other supports for Nifty are 18656 to 18639 zone (Strong Support). Below this area Nifty has support only near 18555, 18465 and 18417. Resistances for Nifty on the upper side if it crosses the zone of 18768 to 18778 are near 18831 and 18887.6 (Previous All Time High).
Nifty retreated after coming within touching distance of ATHNifty retreated after coming within touching distance of All time high. Perhaps it will check the box after one more push or rally within rally. Within every Bull run there are phases where Index or a stock cools down its RSI (relative strength index). Similarly Within every bear run there will be phases when market will be oversold and stock rises to balance RSI.
This particular fall of Nifty can be considered one such pullback within the bear run. The Bull run reverses or bears take over if Nifty gives a daily closing below 18169.(This will be key major support). Other than that support and resistances are as under:
Nifty Supports: 18555, 18512, 18465, 18402 and 18354.
Nifty Resistances: 18601, 18649, 18721 and finally 18778.
Good Closing on Friday, positive to start the new week expected.Due to Good Closing on Friday, positive to start the new week can be expected. We might have a positive gap up start on Friday if there is no negative news on the global or local level during the weekend. The resistances to look forward to are 18600, 18662 and finally 18742. Long term targets are 18887 and 19200+ levels. Supports at the same time remain at 18488, 18325 and finally 18048. closing below 18048 has potential to handover the control of the rally to the Bears.
Short and Medium Term Outlook for NIFTY on Daily chart. In the short Nifty looks little indecisive. I the medium term Nifty looks solid.
Couple of Dojis after cup and Handle Break Out for NIFTY indicates some tussle between Bulls and Bears. Where Bulls have managed to or are trying to free Nifty from a two year consolidation phase where Nifty was mostly between 16000 and 18000. At the same time Bears are trying that Nifty again falls into the Abyss and stays in the consolidation zone.
One 3 to 5% dip will come in the next couple of months before or just after Nifty reaches near or closes above All time high levels.
Supports for Nifty: 18584, 18508, 18372, 18225 and finally 18011.
Resistances for Nifty: 18661, 18736, 18784 and finally 18887.
Strong Close by Nifty on Friday.Nifty has given a strong closing on Friday by closing above the Mid Channel line. The nifty has given a close just below a strong resistance of 18509. 18509 was high of Friday above which the Nifty could not close. One way to avoid this resistance would be to open gap up on Monday. If we open gap up on Monday above 18509 levels, the next resistance will be at 18562, 18601 and 18678. Supports on the lower side will be at 18460, 18389, 18324 (50 Hours EMA) and 18197. Below 18197 Final support will be 200 Hour EMA at 18101. Below 18101 Bears will regain the control. If by chance during the week or later this month or next month we get a closing below 18101 trend can change into negative.
Good end to the day but lot of resistances to conquer The end of the day was good for Nifty as the Nifty bounced from the support given earlier which was at 18206. (Nifty went just below it 18202 Low of the day and bounced back substantially to end at 18321).
The major resistances to conquer remain: 18324, 18382 and 18455.
Supports on the lower side remain at: 18202, 18190 and the zone between 18075 and 18068. (Below 18068 Bears will become very active).
Nifty Not sustaining above mid channel support not a good omenNifty Not sustaining above mid channel support not a good omen for the Bull run. Somehow Nifty has to make a comeback in next 2 or maximum 3 days and sustain above Mid channel line which is around 18413 mark.
Right now Nifty als faced a trend line resistance which emancipates from previous top. The zone was too hot for Nifty to handle and it leaped back towards the support of 18323.
Supports for Nifty Will be at: 18323, 18275, 18206 and finally 18068 to 18040 zone. (Major buffer Support). Below 18K Bears start to loose control.
Resistances for Nifty: 18413, 18455, 18525 and finally 18601 (Major Resistance).
NIFTY Facing Mid-Channel Resistance. Nifty is currently facing mid-channel resistance drawn on hourly candles chart. Taking support at the channel bottom Nifty rose today but was stopped by the mid channel line.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 18267, 18240, 18206 and finally 18119. Below 18119 the major support will be 200 hours EMA at 18018.
Resistances for Nifty will be at: 18341, 18389 and finally 18450 which will be a major resistance. Above 18450 the channel towards 18600 opens up.
Soft Landing of Nifty after Karnataka Election Results. Nifty made a soft landing after Karnataka Election results. Despite Global markets performing well Nifty had a subdued week. After starting the week well, the rally simply could not sustain the upper levels and continued to slide.
Bollinger Band and Daily chart technical analysis shows Friday low of 18060 and 18107.5 as strong support for Spot Nifty. Below these levels if 18060 broken Nifty can slide further to 17873 and 17636. The zone between 17636 and 17675 is strong support buffer zone. Resistance on the upper side will be at 18293, 18458 and 18539.
Nifty took support near 18115 and is trying to bounce from thereNifty took support near 18115 and is trying to bounce from there on the way up 18235 to 18270 zone which wich was a great support will prove to be a strong resistance. If that hurdle is crossed Nifty can travel back to 18308, 18346 and 18384 or even 18400+ staging a V-shaped recovery. Before that happens it is important to cross 18235 to 18270 zone.
Supports at the lower side will be near today's low that is 18115, 18040 and finally 17972. Weekly closing below 17972 will bring smile on the face of bears. In case that happens.
Will Reverse Head & Shoulders Breakout be a success? Market Outlook:
Nifty is on a roll and taking all the negative news under it’s wings and rising like a phoenix. The Mother of all bi-monthly economic events FOMC meet and decision on US Federal Reserve rate hike/Pause and US Fed chief Powell’s comments about the future rate decisions awaits to test its resolve. A positive looking Reverse Head & Shoulder like structure is formed on Nifty Chart as you can see below. We will know later this week if the Reverse Head and Shoulder Breakout is successful or not.
One thing is for sure that corrections are temporary but Indian economy, it’s strength remains intact. It may take time but Indian Indices do bounce back. Long Term Investors should trust the story of India and continue to invest for long term irrespective of whether the current Breakout or current rally sustains or not.
Nifty Supports From Current Level: 18124, 17966, 17888 and 17632.
Nifty Resistances from Current Level: 18180, 18252 and 18441.
Strength of the rally to be tested next week.After the much awaited break out of Nifty which was playing in the range between 17900 and 16900 it is the time for the strength of the rally to be tested. Nifty has to battle some important resistance next week to sail further upwards. All eyes will also be on FOMC meet of US Federal Reserves on 2nd May 2023. I don't want to sound pessimistic but everyone should note that this event has potential to become a party spoiler. (Looks less likely though as rally has crossed some important resistances but you can never really decouple your economy from what happens globally).
Important Supports For The next week: 17973, 17878, 17779 and finally the strong buffer zone of 17473 to 17687. (This buffer zone has multiple supports including 50 Weeks EMA, 50 and 200 days EMA in addition to some other supports).
Important Resistances: 18140, 18268, 18397 and 18481.