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Ninjabenja

Failed Trade.: see below for further analysis. This trade failed largely due to my target being drawn from the wrong place, causing my t/p to be lower than it should have been. Charts have been posted below to illustrate. The symmetrical triangle broke out to the down side with a completion that looks to be around $205. I've been expecting this level for a while and it also lands on top of a 2 week SCMR support zone; so we would expect a decent bullish retrace from that level. If the bearish volume dries up and we actually see a rally from $222 - $220 I'll be watching for the 'D' completion point on this bearish Gartley. My hopes aren't high for the Gartely, but best to keep all options on the table so we can have a plan in place. If you're going to long off any rally, a Short position is advised to be opened at the 'D' completion point near $250. If you're going to take the short trade now in play; T/P would be at or around $205 - $200, trailing stops or buy stops from there for the rebound. My position is short with a stop-loss at about $237.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
9
Merry Christmas Advanced Patterns!Twas the night before Christmas, no time for the charts, every trader was searching for pudding and tarts, For hot buttered rum and some creamy eggnog, and that YouTube vid with the High Def yule log. But while they're all lounging or curled up in beds, with visions of dividends dancing in their heads, The trick ninja traders are scoping the scene and figuring out how to bring home that green. So keep these on your watch list, your finger on the button, Forget about Hoo Hash, stuffing and mutton. Forget about steep upward market correction, Bitcoin's not quite done with it's bearish direction. But when the dust settles you'll know just what to do, ... ti'l then, Merry Christmas to all, and good trading too.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
6
PSA: Bitcoin traders, YOU are the targets- Don't get hacked!No trade setup today folks. This MALWARE warning for BTC traders is purely a public service announcement with some sage advice on how you need to safeguard your hard work and earnings against looting parasite hackers. IF YOU TRADE BITCOIN YOU ARE A TARGET! Q: What the heck are you talking about? A: Recently there have been links posted in the TV chat and as comments on published charts which will take you to a website that automatically runs a flash element. This instant and automatic install pretends to be useful trading software, but it is absolutely malicious. It works to provide the attackers access to as many of your unprotected accounts as it can, particularly email and trade accounts. The attacker will change your account passwords locking you out and looting anything of value you might have. Q: How do you know this? A: I have been witness (first hand) while in the chat to people reporting the exact end results listed above, and watched them freak out while looters locked them out. I have also recently been the target of such an attack. The link was posted to my most recent published chart multiple times, in a very real-time and conversational way. The link was also posted to another TV member's chart who later investigated it. Q: What to do then? Just not click on anything? A: DO NOT CLICK ON LINKS FROM UNKNOWN/UNTRUSTED SOURCES!! Take two seconds to look at the user's profile and publication history. Is the account well established, or is it 30 mins old? Have they EVER published anything? Do you recognize the user name? USE SOME COMMON SENSE! ~ Enable Two Factor Authentication (2fa) on ALL your accounts- especially your email and Trade accounts!! ~ Use a different strong password for every account and for god's sake use LastPass or something like it. ~ In your browser settings, disable flash from running automatically. ~ Use FireFox and install the NoScript plugin. ~ Lastly, Go to www.grc.com, under "Services" click on SheildsUp and find out if you're vulnerable. It's an Internet security vulnerability profiling service offered for free by Steve Gibson one of the leading information security experts of our time. He coined the term "Malware". DO THESE THINGS!! You work too hard to lose it all to a looting parasite because of complacency. /end rant. PS. If you are interested in researching the malware referred to above, please feel free to message me, and I'll PM you the link. Anyone who re-posts the link in the chat or on a published chart will risk being permanently banned by the mods.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ninjabenja
6
Descending Wedge Progressing to CompletionI've been watching the weekly candles slowly creep towards our original trendline with a certain amount of skepticism, since the $500 level. The blue trend reversal (indicator from SCMR) was supposed to have signaled our rally into the new bull markt. However, that rally was confirmed failed by November 23th and it was in no uncertain terms, the writing on the wall for bearish continuation. As if to reinforce the obvious, the last major Daily support has failed at $340 and we're now seeing a new 16 week resistance level printing over our heads at $380. This is all despite a fair amount of really good fundamental news with PayPal and Microsoft BTC payment adoption. While I do make my living trading bitcoin (exclusively), I feel I should restate here that I do not profess to be a financial consultant or "an expert on bitcoin, a bitcoin expert." I do however, have *mad ninja skills* and it doesn't take a Satoshi Nakamoto to understand that when more and more large businesses adopt third party bitcoin payment mechanisms (bitpay, coinbase etc.) via immediate BTC to USD exchange mechanisms- it invariably equals increased sell pressure on the market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
12
Potential H&S with Bullish Gartley FormingThe bullish reversal we achieved on the weekly chart is already at risk of being negated (see chart below). There are some crying foul at the "obvious" manipulation following the over-extended bull charge, with price being beaten to lower lows. However, this is the game, and if you don't like it, play someplace else. Its entirely likely some one knew of the up coming BTC auction (gigaom.com) and needed to pump the price so they could dump for greater profits. At any rate, neither here nor there. All we can do is follow the charts and go with what price action dictates. Forget the troll box and it's trolls. Right now we have two potential setups forming. A sloppy H&S thanks to a shallow left shoulder and a very solid Gartley. Getting back to that weekly chart, neither of these I would have considered likely but with our trend reversal at risk these trades are something to keep in mind when establishing a bearish target plan. Price targets for PRZ = $346, $326 and $287
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
10
Symmetrical TriangleHere on the 12 hour chart we can observe a solidly formed symmetrical triangle. The widely held expectation is that we will see price break out bullish with target #1 at about $420. However, this pattern resolves in the direction of the overall trend- 75% of the time. A top-side breakout could signal the start of a bull market for bitcoin... or we could break lower with the current overall trend still bearish. In the event of a break out to the down side, there is the possibility for a Cypher pattern as strong support should be found at the $300 level. We will be watching with anticipation the price action to come. For a more robust explanation on triangle patterns, go here: stockcharts.com FULL DISCLOSURE: My current position is short.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ninjabenja
2
SCMR Analysis Suite Product REVIEW - live in the TV App Store!It's been a while since I've been able to publish any trade setups or ideas, but let me assure you... it was worth the wait and you wont be disappointed. This chart illustrates the newest system to grace the TV app store, "Analysis Suite - SCMR Trends" and how I used it to dominate this H&S trade setup... and basically every other trade I've taken in the last two months. It will be a staple of all my published charts going forward so it only makes sense that I give you a run down on what you'll be looking at. It is unquestionably the best thing to happen to my trading since candlestick charts. The H&S trade setup was pretty obvious, although I don't know that many took it (if at all) with the same confidence that I did. You can see how I determined my target levels- pretty standard: Distance from peak of the "head" to the "neckline" , drawn as measured moves from the peak of the right shoulder (target #1) and then from the neckline itself (target #2). The "SCMR Dynamic Levels" plot clearly identifiable support and resistance areas. By definition they are dynamic, meaning they *can* move, be pushed or be erased by follow up price action. However, the algorithm which plots them does so based on known market supply and demand levels, eliminating the guess work regarding strength and location. Monthly levels are stronger than weekly; weekly stronger than daily, etc. In this chart, the Dark Red circles are the monthly dynamic resistance and the smaller Pink/Red circles are the weekly. When price broke the neckline that was my signal to get short. But where to do it now that it's already happened? I never chase price, so I waited for my entry, which as you can see came when we pulled right back into the weekly resistance level (about $394), where I entered short with zero hesitation. Price tanked and I was making BTC hand over fist. My target #1 was tapped, but not filled then price started ranging. Is it reversing? Will it continue going up?? The candles were all over the place and largely gray (signalling indecision) but all guess work gone when the new Dynamic level had printed resistance and we broke out of the range to the down side. With the "SCMR Trends", The candles change color indicating trend, trend strength and helps to alert you to trend change so you don't miss the trade entry or exit. The "SCMR B2B" helps to qualify or disqualify trend changes and reversals so you're less likely to get left holding the bag on a fake-out. The last Blue reversal candle is where this trade ended. I had already achieved my exit level but waited for confirmation in the form of the reversal candle to close my short for target #2, giving me maximum profits and not leaving anything on the table by closing early. Full disclosure: I am *not* being paid or compensated for promoting this product or this system. I was given a demo copy for review prior to official release and all of the above analysis was based on that less refined "beta" version. The SCMR suite comes highly recommended and is an extremely high quality product that I encourage you to explore. The value is self evident. If you have questions send a PM to @SPYdyerCrusher or click on the "Indicators" button at the top of your chart and find "SCMR Analysis" under Marketplace Add-Ons. ~Cheers!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ninjabenja
7
All kinds of bearishness up in this one, Stamp 4hr.The following ideas hinge on price breaking out of the current set of triangles to the down side. We've got two concurrent triangles, one symmetrical, one descending. It is not scandalous to state that our over-all trend is still down since $650. A symmetrical triangle will break in the direction of the over-all trend 75% of the time, while a descending triangle is always bearish (i don't have a % for that one though ;p). A conservative short position would be to take an entry when we get a break below, close below $495. A more aggressive short entry would be taken on the breakout of the symmetrical triangle's purple support trend line; somewhere in the neighborhood of 500. This is a higher time frame trade and likely wont dive straight to target. The trade plan for our triangle break out will lead us right into the first target of $477, which is the AB=CD completion point for the CD leg of our bat pattern. From there we'll be trailing stops to structure on our way to Target 2, which is the D completion point of our Bat, at $452. That level is also a historically strong support and is carried through the chart in faded red line just below D.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
6
Descending Triangle, Weak Gartley combo, 4 Hr This descending triangle is always a bearish pattern, indicating a strong sell signal. Here we see it paired with either a "weak" Gartley or Crab advanced pattern. Technically it's a failed gartley. I call it weak, because the 'B' point retracement of XA doesn't reach the .618 fib levels. To be fair this has more of a potential for the Crab pattern, which would make the floating 'B' point valid and would also corroborate with our Larger Gartley pattern on the daily chart. I *may* have helped push this up and out of the descending triangle after we bounced on the blue .618 fib line. A large enough buy at the right times can do that. Considering that I was heading out of town for four days of backpacking off the grid; the failed break out was a signal that I didn't want to have open short positions of substantial size left unattended. Likely it would have continued sideways regardless but the end result remains the same. Read more about descending triangles: www.babypips.com Read more about Crab patterns: www.trade-forex-harmonic-patterns.com Read more about Gartley Patterns: www.harmonictrader.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
4