NIO
BIDU - Look out Below.. Big Bearish Move DownToday we look at BIDU
We see a Huge Bearish Descending Triangle in which we have been in for the last 280 days or so.
We can observe this as illustrated with the lower highs while we are posting the same level lows
To add to the bearish sentiment we also formed a Bearish "Bear Flag" within the same price structure.
We just broke down from the bear flag and closed below.
Looking at price action and volume we find data to support a bigger move lower as well.
We are taking longer time buying then we are selling AND the price action bars buying are far weaker than those selling. Volume supports and agrees as well.
Going into Monday we are looking for some small corrections to start the week then ADD to our PUT OPTIONS as the market continues to sell off.
First Long Term Target: $95
Ideal Re-Entry: 153-157
Zoom out the Zoom..! The past 3 yearsI think whatever you need to know about a Formation of bubbles and their burst you can see in the ZM chart:
An 805% move in 18 months followed by an 84% decline in the next 17 months:
During that 84% decline, you see a 36% and 48% positive surge, but the aftermath remained the same..!
Even a significant change in the fundamental did not help:
But ZM was not alone, other examples are:
NIO: +5500% followed by -80%
DOCU:
And the mother of All bubbles:
ARKK:
and the Final point:
Gauging Market Changes
The key determinant of whether the market is bull or bear is not just the market's knee-jerk reaction to a particular event, but how it's performing over the long term. Small movements only represent a short-term trend or a market correction. Whether or not there is going to be a bull market or a bear market can only be determined over a longer time period.
However, not all long movements in the market can be characterized as bull or bear. Sometimes a market may go through a period of stagnation as it tries to find direction. In this case, a series of upward and downward movements would actually cancel-out gains and losses resulting in a flat market trend.(Investopedia)
Conclusion:
You can be in the Bearish market yet see the most Exotic Bullish rallies..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*I have open positions in SARK(74.36), SOXS(40), TZA(30.60)
Will chaos in nickel prices disrupt the EV boom?The nickel market has been in disarray in recent weeks as prices soared to unprecedented levels before going on a freefall amid supply concerns and an unexpected short-squeeze by one of the world’s largest steelmakers.
Nickel is one of the most common metal elements in the world used to make stainless steel, batteries, coins, and other metal applications.
How the Russia-Ukraine conflict drove nickel prices higher
Russia is one of the world’s largest producers of nickel, supplying about 20% of class 1 nickel that is mainly used in the production of stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. Data from market research firm Statista showed that Russia was the world’s leading exporter of nickel and nickel products in 2020, shipping about $3.02 billion worth of the commodity.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine sparked fears of a nickel supply crunch as Russia has been hit with a number of economic sanctions and as importers of other Russian commodities like oil avoid being impacted by sanctions.
The short-squeeze that sent prices skyrocketing
In addition to the supply concerns induced by the ongoing Ukraine conflict, a short-squeeze involving Tsingshan Holding Group, touted as the largest nickel producer in the world, was also behind soaring nickel prices.
The Chinese company took a nickel short position of 200,000 tons of nickel in the London Metal Exchange (LME) and as the price of nickel surged in the early days of the Ukraine crisis, the company’s short position was left in disarray, setting it up for a paper loss of about $8 billion.
Tsingshan recently inked a deal with banks to avoid further margin calls, buying it time to cut its nickel position as markets stabilize.
LME forced to halt trading
The short-squeeze and supply concerns sent nickel prices skyrocketing by more than 50% to $100,000 per tonne on March 8, significantly up from about $25,000 per tonne a week earlier.
The surge prompted the LME to suspend nickel trading and impose price limits to maintain stability.
Since the trade resumption, prices have been on a freefall over low trading volumes and concerns about the status of Tsingshan’s short position. The benchmark three-month nickel on the LME fell 2.2% on Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. GMT to $32,000 per tonne.
What the volatility in nickel prices could mean for EV makers
Higher nickel prices could drive up the costs of electric vehicles even higher as nickel is one of the key materials used to produce EV batteries. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas had recently warned that EVs in the US could be $1,000 more expensive as nickel prices soar.
This could hurt electric carmakers’ profit margins and impede the growth of the burgeoning EV market at a time when markets like China, Europe, and the US transition to new-energy vehicles.
The shortage in nickel and skyrocketing prices of the metal have forced some EV makers like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to look for other battery materials. In late February, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the Silicon Valley-based company’s biggest concern for scaling lithium-ion cell production is nickel.
“That’s why we are shifting standard range cars to an iron cathode,” Musk said. Tesla recently hiked the prices of its Model 3 and Model Y cars in the US and China, the world’s biggest car market, due to high raw material prices.
Its rivals in China including XPeng (NYSE:XPEV), Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and BYD (HKG:1211) also announced price hikes to counter rising raw material costs. However, NIO (NYSE:NIO), another local player, last week said it has no plans to raise prices at the moment after its sales have lagged behind its rivals XPeng and Li Auto for five straight months.
NIO Breakout Alert $the moment we clear our ascending line, we will see a bearish trend reversal , and have a massive test around the 29$, before we continue the trend up, before that we should hold above our box, and never go below to confirm the bullish momentum and breaking our ascending line, and doing higher lows, by bouncing above our support box.
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NIO at the begining of a new era..!This is NIO weekly chart which clearly shows the long-term outlook!
with the current trend, 20-15 could be possible in the next few months!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
XPEV Price TargetPrice target for XPEV is $33.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
NIO Price TargetPrice target for NIO is $21.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
Nio - Watch out for the break out of the channelHello everyone,
China said Wednesday that it would keep its stock markets stable and take measures to boost economic growth in the first quarter, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency.
The government should roll out policies favorable to capital markets while being cautious in introducing contractionary measures, according to the Financial Stability and Development Committee under the State Council, during a meeting chaired by Vice Premier Liu He.
This is huge, because the reason why Chinese stocks were down so much was due to delisting fears, unstable political environment and the recession looming over us.
While the recession and the war between Ukraine and Russia is not going anywhere as of yet, the improvement in the policies of China and significantly reducing the fear of delisting is something that will have an affect on all the beat-up Chinese equities, at least in the short-term.
Nio is trading inside a decending channel and we need to watch out for a break and possible retest of the last resistance.
In case it does not break though, we are headed down to the 10$ mark.
Good luck!
TESLA looking bearish on the dailyLooking at Tesla on the daily chart I have broken down how I am playing this one for the long and short-term.
So clearly TSLA is looking pretty bearish along with most of the major stocks these days. Today we see price breaking down and setting up to potentially test that very strong support level and low of $700 from a couple of weeks ago.
Since Tesla hit all time highs on November 4th the stock has had a few failed breakout attempts. On one occasion it looked pretty promising to break all time highs only to hit 1200 resistance.
$1000 is a very important psychological price level and on this chart we can see lots of areas of support and then breaking through that level so now 1000 is resistance.
Price also hit some resistance at the 950 level as well.
The plan for the bulls would be for of course 700 to hold and for price to start making higher highs and higher lows. A break back above any whole number is a start, 800 then 900 and then that 950 wall.
Once TSLA is breaking back above 1k I would feel pretty confident for the bulls but until then I see this looking more on the bear side.
Chinese Stock sinking ..!I believe this process will not end soon, do not try to catch a falling Chinese knife..!
Charlie Munger has tried this with BABA and I do not think he is happy with his decision!
Consider this:
What would happen if China and Taiwan situation escalate..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NVDA 182 PRICE TARGET - BY MARCH 21NVDA should hit a price of 182 on or before March 21st - if this level does not hold, it should continue down near the 160 range.
The Volume and On Balance Volume helps confirm this. As far as patterns go, NVDA seems to be at the top of a strong channel, and has plenty of room to descent.
I will be looking for puts on NVDA in the coming days.