Get started

NIO

NIO Sprints Back into Growth Mode – No Regulatory Risk Thus FarNIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, up 124.48% year-on-year, down 2% month-on-month. ● We estimate NIO's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock. ● The methodology includes a car sales forecast and average selling prices. ● Our evaluation indicates that the stock is currently fairly priced. ● None of the currently acute regulatory risks apply to NIO. Introduction NIO, China's arguably most successful EV startup, saw an incredible performance both business-wise and in the capital market. More investors have joined the camp of those bullish about the electric car maker's prospects. In 2021, NIO has been solidifying a high premium profile in China, launching a new model, the ET7. NIO has also recently started shipping the ES8 to Norway, with global expansion ambitions. This article follows an approach similar to that we used in our latest Xpeng analysis, estimating the value of the stock based on its projected future sales performance. Revenue estimation In this section, we will project NIO's revenue by 2030 and use the 2022 figure to evaluate the stock's current investment potential. The revenue will be calculated by multiplying projected car deliveries with average selling prices. The calculation of whole fleet (including ES6, EC6, ES8 and ET7) sales is based on a top-down methodology. It starts with a forecast of light vehicle sales in China. According to CAAM (link in Chinese), China's light-vehicle sales will hit 22.2 million in 2021. Under an assumption of slowing economic growth affecting the auto market, we estimate the growth rate will decline to 4% gradually. The market will reach 32.6 million in 2030. Speaking of the market share, we assume NIO can reach 2.4% of the total market by 2030. It results from the fact that William Li, the founder of NIO, has aligned the company's goals with those of iconic brands like Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi. We linearized that number and estimated NIO's 2022 market share and deliveries, which will account for 0.6% and 152,066 units, respectively. To calculate the revenue, we also need to project the average selling price (ASP). Historically, NIO's ASP has been declining as new models have been rolled out. This trend will continue, whereas we think the ASP will remain higher than CNY 300,00 per vehicle. We set a declining rate for ASP calculation, from -2% in 2021 to -0.5% in 2030. The ASP in 2022 will be CNY 328,000. Per this projection, NIO's 2022 vehicle sales will be CNY 50 billion. Apart from car sales, NIO also generates revenue from selling charging facilities and related services, data, insurance and merchandise. These segments have correlated to vehicle sales and shown a faster growth pace. Thus, we project a slightly increasing percentage of revenue from selling them. In 2020, the number was 6%, and we allocated 7% and 9% for 2022 and 2030, respectively. In total, NIO is expected to make CNY 53.5 billion (USD 8 billion) in revenue in 2022. Similar to our Xpeng analysis, we multiplied NIO's PS ratio in 2022 by nine (referring to the Street's average expectations). Its fair market capitalization target is thereby around USD 74 billion. Risks NIO has recently been indirectly involved in the regulatory crackdown-related narrative. We think investors' massive selling may insignificantly hurt the company's business. To specify all the possible risks, we summarize all the incidents concerning Chinese concept stocks within this year. The antitrust and other new regulations are the key obstacle imposed by the central government. Some famous 'victim' cases include Tencent Music's copyrights, Alibaba's 'pick one from two' strategy and Meituan's rider employment and other issues. Obviously, the NEV market in China is still in its infancy (compared with ICE cars). NIO is certainly not a monopoly. Data/cybersecurity concerns are also not suitable for NIO. In early July 2021, it was reported that Didi Global had illegally collected users' personal data. Clearly, the ride-hailing giant possesses huge chunks of users' travel information. However, NIO is also collecting data that seems less significant than important route data handled by legitimate third-party providers like map products of Baidu and the likes of AutoNavi. NIO and its peers won't see anything like what happened to the country's edtech industry either: the central government, which is ''seeking to decrease workloads for students and overhaul a sector that has been 'hijacked by capital,'" is rather interested in the nationwide EV adoption. In short, NIO, much like any local EV maker, is not exposed to these major risks. Apart from regulatory risk, supply chain issues are worth discussing. The issues seem to remain controllable, but investors need to keep eyes on them – the component shortage will be a hot topic in the upcoming Q2 earnings calls. Conclusion Among Chinese concept stocks, NIO is a company with a solid product line, growing sales and great prospects. The stock has gone down and has remained volatile since the beginning of 2021. Suffering from the chip shortage, it is currently fairly priced. And is well set to gain more in the following quarters. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
1
NIO: Complete Analysis (H, D and W charts).Hello traders and investors! Yes, since our last analysis, NIO has been trading around the Fibonacci Retracements we talked about last week, and it is moving accordingly to the technique. First, let’s see the 1h chart. Today, NIO dropped to the previous support at $ 44 area, and it is trying to react. Although we are under the 21 ema, the bias is slightly bullish. The red line at $ 46.99 is the technical resistance for NIO in the short-term. Now, let’s see the daily chart: We see that NIO is trading between the 38.2% and the 61.8% retracements, and as long as it keeps between these points, nothing surprising will happen here. For now, it is hard to tell which direction NIO will do a breakout, but since it is in a bull trend in the 1h chart, the odds are that it’ll break upwards the 38.2% retracement, unless we see something new. If we lose the 61.8% retracement, we would drop to the $ 32 area again, as we lack other support levels. But it we break the 38.2% we might seek the next top at $ 55.13, which is a pivot point seen in the weekly chart: NIO found a support in the 21 ema in the weekly chart , and in addition to the Fibonacci Retracements seen in the daily chart, this is a strong support level for NIO in the mid/long-term. What's more, we have bullish candlestick patterns around here too. The $ 55.12 is a pivot point, and if triggered, NIO could easily seek the previous ATH. Let’s follow NIO closely in the next few days, and see how it’ll play next. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and support this idea if you liked it! Thank you very much!
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
18
NIO Delivered 7,931 Vehicles in July, Up 124% Year-over-YearNIO's local counterparts, XPeng Motors and Li Auto delivered 8040, 8589 vehicles, respectively, in July. NIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July, up 124.48 percent year-over-year and down about 2 percent from June. The deliveries consisted of 1,702 ES8s, 3,669 ES6s, and 2,560 EC6s. NIO has completed the delivery of 49,887 units in 2021, exceeding last year's full-year delivery. NIO's 100kWh battery pack is deploying to every battery swap station and the delivery of the 100kWh battery pack will significantly ramp up in the coming months, the company said. At the same time, the first batch of ES8 for user delivery has been officially shipped to Norway and is expected to open for ordering and delivery in Norway in September this year, it said. Ahead of the July delivery data was released, a team at Hong Kong-based financial services firm CMB International raised its price target on NIO earlier today, citing marginal improvement in chip supply and the prospect of continued growth in deliveries in the second half of the year. The team raised its price target for NIO by 13.6 percent to USD 52.60 per share, maintaining a buy rating. NIO closed up 4.83 percent to USD 44.68 on Friday and the price target implies an upside of about 18 percent. CMB believes that in the short term, NIO expects to drive sales growth through increased density of battery swap stations. In the long term, NIO's unique business model of separating the vehicle from the battery will contribute to vehicle sales as it focuses on providing quality service to its customers. Local tech media 36kr reported on Friday that Ai Tiecheng, former general manager of WeWork Greater China, has joined NIO to take charge of the company's mass-market-oriented sub-brand, and that a new model could be released in the first half of next year at the earliest. NIO is the only local Chinese brand that has a firm foothold in the high-end market, with a minimum price of CNY 358,000 (USD 55,400). If customers choose its BaaS battery leasing service, the purchase threshold can be lowered by at least RMB 70,000, but they will need to pay a monthly battery rental fee. The latest data from China Automotive Technology and Research Center shows that the average price of NIO vehicles in May was CNY 432,900, higher than BMW's CNY 391,000 and slightly lower than Mercedes' CNY 435,600. The high-end positioning means that NIO's sales could hit the ceiling earlier than its local counterparts XPeng Motor and Li Auto, and the launch of a mass-market-oriented brand is expected to make that ceiling higher. The so-called sub-brand, a mid-to low-end brand independent of the NIO brand, is expected to be priced in the CNY 150,000 (USD 23,200) - 250,000 market, the 36kr report said. "Li is also factoring in the positioning of the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV (priced at around CNY 30,000)," the report said, citing an unnamed source. The Mini EV is the top-selling EV in China, with sales of 29,143 units in June, up 12.56 percent from May, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. NIO's sub-brand will follow the battery swap technology, but will operate through a separate system that includes channels, communities and an app, the 36kr report said. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
$SNOW $CRWD $NIO $MSFT I OptionsSwing WatchlistSNOW 4H I After June, we see another SNOW ascending triangle leading into earnings in September. Watching a bounce near $260 or a break above $276. CRWD 1D I CRWD was rejected right on our trend line last week near $270, watching for a bounce near $240-$245. CRWD is due to report earnings on 09/01. NIO 1D I NIO possible cup and handle pattern. Watching for a break above $45 and the trend line. Our scanners picked up bullish activity expiring on 08/06. MSFT 1D I A bounce above the breakout of this channel ($280-$285) that was formed back in 2020, could take MSFT closer to the average stock price target of $321.
NYSE:SNOWLong
by optionsswing
NIO: Keep an eye on these Fibonacci Retracements!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing today! First, it crashed two days ago, but the movement was completely denied . NIO triggered a pivot point at $ 41.87 , and it is trading above the 21 ema again. Pullbacks to these points are expected. Now, it seems we are heading to the $ 44.87 , but we have an open gap up there, that could make NIO go even higher. This week NIO just dropped to retest the 61.8% retracement , and now it is bouncing back up to the 50%. The situation is not the best for NIO, as we still have many challenges ahead. We have the 21 ema, which is another resistance to be defeated, and the 38.2% retracement might be another resistance as well. Since we have an open gap , I see NIO retesting the 38.2% retracement next. Then we’ll have to wait for more information. We have a bearish momentum in the daily chart, and no good reversal sign around, aside from the 1h chart (which is a good start, but not enough). Let’s see how NIO will behave in the next few days. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
11
NIO Pullback Over? [LONG]NIO had a rough start to the week on Monday as did many Asian equities. But somehow it appears that NIO could be on the brink of a successful back test of a key support area that could hold as the key to NIO running to higher prices in the future and sustaining it. Keep an eye on the open tomorrow morning. If price opens above $39.27, this could be a great entry for a long. Anything below this price level instantly flips this asset to bearish as shorting would again be the most attractive bet for the foreseeable future. A break and confirmed daily candle close below $39.27 would be a violation of the .236 fibonacci level, and that could insinuate price action to downside for a retest of the previous swing low at $30.71. The risk/reward on this at the moment is perfect however, as we are nearly exactly at our support. So stop losses can be a little loose due to the room for error we now have. Again, most of this will depend on where NIO price is at come opening bell. Should this $39.27 level hold, we could be looking at a 13% move to our first target at $55.57. Ultimately, a move back to the all time high, which represents X of this retracement, makes this a potential 70% profit trade.
NYSE:NIOLong
by TradeVibez
NIO vs similar Market cap Car ProducerNIO Market Cap 64.492B BMW Market Cap 65.701B NIO Revenue 2020: 16.26B usd NIO Earnings 2020: -5.61B usd BMW Revenue 2020: 104.21B euro BMW Earnings 2020: 4.92B euro NIO Revenue Q1 2021: 7.98B usd NIO Earnings Q1 2021: -4.87B usd BMW Revenue Q1 2021: 26.78B euro BMW Earnings Q1 2021: 2.81B euro NIO Forward Dividend & Yield N/A (N/A) BMW Forward Dividend & Yield 1.90 (2.22%) And NIO is not audited by an American company. US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted. When i wrote my first article about NIO it was undervalued at 6.98usd and my target was around 18usd. i sold it between 12 to 14. I reentered at 20, but just for the hype. Now i started to become more confident in my first target. :) Most likely it will test the 30usd support. I`m looking forward to read your opinion about NIO.
NYSE:NIOShort
by TopgOptions
2
NIO - Potential 15% drop!-Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) maker Nio (NYSE:NIO) are about 30% below January 2021 highs. But investors still might think it's too late to buy shares, as the stock is still up 260% from one year ago, and just under 1,000% higher since the start of 2020. -Though the company is making progress toward profitability, Nio is still recording net losses. With a market cap of over $70 billion, there is already much future success built into the company's share price. -Target Price: $31
NYSE:NIOShort
by caldooninvestment
14
ADDED $NIO NEW Target 54.80 for 30.73% $NIO Target 54.80 for 30.73% Or next add at 38.35 ----- — On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average. ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible. I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading.
NYSE:NIOLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading