NIKKEI 225 Falls Hard! Short Trade Hits All TargetsThe Nikkei 225 has displayed strong bearish momentum after the short entry at 39921.50, with the price moving through multiple profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 39921.50 – The short position was initiated as the price broke below this level, confirming bearish pressure.
Stop-Loss (SL): 40104.00 – Positioned above recent resistance to safeguard against potential reversals.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 39695.93 – The first target was reached, confirming the initial strength of the downtrend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 39330.93 – Further selling pressure led to this level being hit.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 38965.93 – The downward trend continued, achieving this target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 38740.36 – The ultimate target, indicating a significant bearish move.
Trend Analysis
The price is firmly below the Risological Dotted trendline, affirming the strength of the bearish trend. The continuous downward movement highlights strong selling momentum, suggesting that bears remain in control.
The short trade on the Nikkei 225 has progressed well, with all targets reached. The final target at 38740.36 underscores a strong decline, supported by the Risological Dotted trendline and consistent selling pressure.
Nikkei 225 Index (NKY)
Nikkei to find buyers at market?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
We look to Buy at 35980 (stop at 35760)
Our profit targets will be 36530 and 36630
Resistance: 37020 / 37940 / 38415
Support: 35730 / 35045 / 34565
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nikkei to find support at previous high?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 28250 (stop at 28075)
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A lower correction is expected.
The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 28695 and 28745
Resistance: 29295 / 29710 / 30300
Support: 27880 / 27395 / 27050
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Nikkei rallies to be limited by a swing high?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 28330 (stop at 28530)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Prices spiked higher and stalled at resistance in early trade.
Further selling pressure led to a reversal in price action.
The current move lower is expected to continue.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27760 and 27395
Resistance: 28505 / 29295 / 29710
Support: 27880 / 27395 / 27050
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Nikkei remains a long.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 28098 (stop at 27940)
Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (25535 - 28653) and we expect this to continue.
Short term bias is bullish.
Bespoke support is located at 28098.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 28469 and 28509
Resistance: 28276 / 28588 / 28731
Support: 28098 / 27864 / 27629
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Selling Nikkei into a rally.NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 28280 (stop at 28505)
Buying pressure from 27629 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 27705 and 27605
Resistance: 28505 / 29295 / 29710
Support: 27395 / 27050 / 26710
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Stocks - What Next?Idea for indices:
- As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts).
- China continuing to lead down.
- Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere.
- ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index performance is a critical tell for deflationary forces vs. QE.
- Watch China Tech ETFs to lead US indices down. Managers will need to also liquidate US positions as their portfolio % exposure becomes overweight.
I've been enjoying watching Nikkei lately - it just broke a critical support and 200 DMA (6m low), officially a bear market if it consolidates losses. However, it is still holding 50 WMA and 200 DMA in real performance... waiting for US markets for confirmation.
Bearish bias here, turning point is due. Aug 2 debt limit will be in focus. Early August is my trigger for reversal confirmation. If it holds, we can back off and try again later, but rugpull is definitely due.
Already short US indices (long vol).
Nikkei real performance (relative to currency):
Here is what I think will happen to Nikkei next:
GLHF
- DPT
Stocks - What do HSI and Nikkei Know?Idea for HSI & NI225:
- Delta variant proving to be a third wave globally.
- Supply chain issues, productivity decline, credit impulse having spillover on Asian indices now.
- SPX will get its wake-up call too.
I know this frequency well.
Speculate Jul-Aug will be very painful for global indices.
GLHF
- DPT
Bearish on NikkeiNI 225 looking to consolidated. Like IXI, we are more or less at the beginning of the downtrend. Some goals are provided in purple as well. RSI show dropping momentum.
None of the above is financial advice, please do your own research - your trades are your trades.
First meaningful correctionNIKKEI will have its first meaningful correction in the coming weeks
###NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE###
Nikkei Will Revisit All Time High In Few YearsChart said so.
The multi decades "bear market", "consolidation phase" may end in the next few years.
In terms of market cap, its already broke all time high long time ago. So, that's the natural progression of the financial market.
ridethepig | Nikkei Market Commentary 2020.09.19📌 The Nikkei would have freed some space to the downside with a technical break last week, but given that we have not pierced the support line and buyers are still well-placed we must be wary of a retest in the highs of the multi year top at 24,000 - the same level we have been tracking since 2018!!
The more interesting notion comes from the Global Equity board with breaks being led by NY and following through with Europe on the quadruple witching flows.
A simple move here would be playing the breakdown for a quick test of the 200 day MA which is +/- 22,000 and on the other perhaps opening up the panic leg towards the lows at 20,300 if the rest of the flows play along. Any moves to the topside lack conviction and the RSI destroys all winning chances for buyers as we approach the highs.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
The Nikkei Testing zero on GoNoGo OscillatorAnother chart showing how important it is to watch the GoNoGo Oscillator’s interaction with the zero line.
The Nikkei 225 Index has been in a “Go” trend as global stocks have rallied since the lows in march. The GoNoGo Trend is showing a little weakness as it is painting pale blue bars and the GoNoGo Oscillator is testing support at zero.
In the lower panel, I have annotated with horizontal lines how well the zero line serves as resistance in a down trend and as support in an uptrend.
Therefore, we will be watching to see if the GoNoGo Oscillator finds support at zero once again, supporting price as it attempts to move higher. If it fails at zero, we expect trouble in the short term for the Nikkei 225.
What are the GoNoGo Indicators?
The GoNoGo Trend indicator blends traditional trend concepts to color price action according to the strength of its trend. The colors range from bright blue (strongly bullish) to dark purple (strongly bearish)
The GoNoGo Oscillator blends traditional momentum concepts to demonstrate the velocity of price action. The oscillator ranges from -6 (extremely oversold) to +6 (extremely overbought)
Nikkei 225 (NKY NI225 JPN225) - Breakdown - Now at Demand ZoneTVC:NI225 has broken down from the uptrend, however now in demand zone.
If AUD Topped, SPX Topped(See previous posts on extremely tight correlation between AUDJPY and SPX)
Post FOMC Follow Up:
Despite being the core focus of markets going in, nothing of substance out of the Fed / Powell regarding Yield Curve Control. Markets are now risk-off, with AUD leading the way down. Pre-positioning long AUDUSD on hopes of US YCC are unwinding, and dragging down global equity futures.
Why were traders long AUD for YCC upside catalyst? Same reason that AUDJPY has been fueling SPX bull market off March lows - the carry trade.
Sept 2016: BOJ becomes the first major central bank to adopt YCC, pinning the 10y JGB yield at "around 0%." With the JPY rate leg of FX pairs now effectively fixed in place, AUDJPY carry trade was put back on in size by an army of levered up traders.
As the global macro picture started deteriorating, RBA joined the ~50 something other central banks who slashed rates in 2019, and with a collapsing AU-JP yield spread, AUDJPY carry trade was no longer as attractive.
March 19 2020: As global risk assets plunge, RBA becomes the second major central bank to implement YCC on the front end of the Aussie curve. Now, with two central banks pinning both sides of AUD and JPY yields in place and suppressing rate volatility (or at least perceived to be), AUDJPY carry trade makes a massive comeback on max leverage, with proceeds used to fund long risk assets- notably SPX & FANGS. This is not only why AUDJPY & S&P E Minis are so highly correlated off the March lows (even on an intraday tick for tick basis), but also in part explains how SPX can rally when the US eco data has never looked more horrendous. AUD doesn't care about US jobless claims, COVID cases, eruption of protests, Trump vs China etc. And since actual global commerce and transactions had come to a halt, speculative FX flows had ever more impact on spot FX movements. This was evident in early June, when AUD broke out ahead of SPX's upward correlation, as Australia reported another record current account surplus for its 4th consecutive quarter - in other words, real world transactions in exports made their presence known in the FX markets.
June FOMC: Leading into FOMC, there was plenty of chatter that the US Fed might become the third central bank to adopt YCC. This would then have the same effect - kill volatility in front end rates, making AUDUSD a carry trade candidate alongside AUDJPY. But alas, YCC was not a primary topic of focus, and now getting priced out of AUD upside, and down goes global risk assets in tandem with AUD.
IF AUD has finally reached the end of its massive bull run started in March, with hedge funds' net short positioning piling on as we head into AUD futures June expiry/roll, then SPX caps its relentless rise.
AUDJPY: (Still) best SPX macro correlation Wide Aussie - JGB yield spreads in the 2000’s leading up to ‘08 crisis made Aussie dollar / JP yen the go-to levered carry trade used to fuel the US housing CDO bubble (with subsequent bubble burst → mass unwind which strengthened jpy to 70 vs USD).
Post crisis era saw the AUDJPY carry trade out back on. 2016- BOJ implements YCC, pinning 10y JGB yields at ~0%, which made Aussie yields the moving variable- AUD became a gauge of macro risk sentiment as carry trades funded risk assets, including NKY & SPX.
In the wake of the global slowdown (starting pre COVID), with Australia facing the end of it’s 3 decades without recession, the RBA has since slashed Aussie cash rates to record lows and then moved to implement YCC itself, making RBA the second developed market central bank to do so after BOJ.
AUDJPY remains a favorite fx pair among japan margined retail traders, who are more bullish US equities vs domestic NKY. Japan retail is the “glue” between AUDJPY & SPX (eminis) & NKY (NKY mini futures- which now exceed standard NKY index futures in notional traded value)- when japan retail goes risk-on, AUDJPY & equities rise. When they unwind on margin calls, AUDJPY falls alongside index futures liquidation.
With other major FX pairs (namely USDJPY) as well as cross asset UST yields, gold, copper, oil, even VIX no longer having any consistent correlation to SPX, AUDJPY is the one macro asset indicator left with positive correlation.
And now that US rates have been cut from above → below Aussie rates with Fed Funds pinned at zero for the foreseeable decade+ and UST 2s approaching zero quickly, the RBA policy meetings are the “new” FOMC with respect to central bank short term SPX influence.
Coronavirus Regional Long/Short Japan (EWJ) outperforms as Coronavirus cases are low (due to low testing), but country now on the verge of a massive virus outbreak, in line w/ EU & US.
Italy (EWI) lags DM, seen as new epicenter of Coronavirus. Country on lockdown, virus priced in (relative to Japan).
Italy also has sov debt & banking crisis overhang- but Japan also has massive sov debt & banking crisis, just not as widely publicized.
Banking/debt crisis aside, strictly from coming Coronavirus data reaction, RELATIVE pair trade:
Short EWJ (Japan) / Long EWI (Italy)
ETFs are FX hedged to mitigate some of USD vol interference.
Nikkei 225 the First to Recover, Gold Facing Historical Shortage The Nikkei 225, or Japanese Stock Index had an 8% gain for the day, following on from its 7% gain from the previous day. Less than a week ago the Nikkei had just hit lows not seen since 2017, falling below 20,000 points. However in just 2 days it has made back its losses and is now rapidly on the rebound back to the 20,000 mark.
As well as this, other Asian stocks are on the recovery as well, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Korean KOSPI, and Shanghai Composite all on the upside.
In Europe, the UK FTSE 100 is following suit, with a 2.5% increase for the day.
Following on from this, it is reasonable to expect the US stock indices to produce a similar pattern in the upcoming days. US stocks have already started to recover, with the Dow Jones posting its best single day session since 1933, rising 11.4%.
This market optimism comes after the US Senate finally agreed on passing the $2 trillion coronavirus bill. The bill, which had been in dispute over the last 2 days due to being blocked by the Democrats, has now been settled with a deal being reached, although the final vote still needs to be made. Although details still need to be agreed upon as well, the gist of the bill is that $250 billion is to go towards directly paying individuals and families, $350 billion on small business loans, and $500 for other companies, amongst others. This is expected to be the largest ever economic stimulus package ever passed.
The 2020 Tokyo Olympics have also been officially postponed, after several weeks of discussions. While Japan was originally adamant about the Olympics going ahead despite the alarming growth of the coronavirus pandemic, today they were finally forced to postpone the games until 2021. Japan was initially extremely reluctant to make this move, as it would’ve been the first time in the 124 year history of the modern games that they had to be postponed. Olympic officials said that the games would be postponed to a date before Summer 2021, but no later than that, and that the flame would continue to stay in Japan for the time being.
In other news, gold is facing a historic short squeeze, as New York is currently under lockdown. The movement of gold has been severely impeded by the coronavirus, as metal refineries have been forced to close, and all travel has been severely restricted. Normally, in the case of such a shortage in New York, suppliers would ship from overseas locations. But the travel restrictions mean that there is the possibility that the supplies could become trapped, making banks and traders reluctant to do so. Even in other times of economic hardship such as war, gold refineries have not had to close.
The price of gold, which had been on the recovery as well this week, has now fallen again, down 1.8% back towards the $1,600 mark after looking like it would reach $1,650. This move could also be attributed to investors discarding the safe haven asset after the announcement of the $2 trillion stimulus package, as risk appetite improved.
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Buyers in ControlNikkei shows Elliott Wave bullish sequence from December 26, 2018 low and August 26, 2019 low. This suggests that buyers are in control and favors further upside in the Index. The pullback to 21079 ended wave ((2)) and the Index has resumed higher in wave ((3)). Internal subdivision of wave ((3)) takes the form of a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure.
Wave (1) of ((3)) is currently in progress as a leading diagonal. Up from 21079, wave 1 ended at 21650, wave 2 ended at 21325, wave 3 ended at 22265, and wave 4 ended at 21905. Expect Index to soon complete wave 5 of (1). Afterwards, Index should pullback in wave (2) to correct the cycle from October 3 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 21079 low stays intact.
Nikkei 225 index formed bullish Shark | A good long opportunityPriceline of Nikkei 225 index has formed a bullish shark and entered in potential reversal zone.
I have defined the targets using Fibonacci sequence as below:
Buy between: 20094.62 to 20460.02
Sell between: 20779.31 to 21503.43
Regards,
Atif Akbar (moon333)
Nikkei225 [Daily] Bulls: Failed today, in big trouble below 21kBulls failed when was trying to breakout of the consolidation. More longs covering may bring retest of 21200/20900 and two consecutive daily close below may even expose new LL below 19 000
A bit unsure stillNikkei 225 is a bit tricky. Good fundamental data out of Japan such as dovish monetary policy, but weak export figures which is why its down today. Technically, we are well above most exponential moving averages, but stochastic reads overbought while momentum suggests we are still headed in an uptrend. Overall, not enough signals for one way or the other.
