NIKKEI approaching resistance, potential drop! Nikkei is approaching our first resistance at 20899 (100% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) and a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 18995 (61.8% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also approaching resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price should it react off this level.
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Nikkei 225 Index (NKY)
Nikkei 225 - Exaggerated Bullish Divergence On SupportVolume divergences play very cleanly on weekly indices.
CME's NY1! tracks the Nikkei chart to a tee, with an added bonus of volume.
Regular bearish played out strongly and landed right on McGinley as support with an exaggerated bullish divergence to pop it back up. Although the author does not agree on using any moving average as a signal, this looks like a great spot to buy with a tight stop and minimal chance of reversal if it does break down here.
Watching the aqua line ($23005 area) for resistance and for any correlation between U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies.
The preponderance of evidence: NKY This is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence.
Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months.
Nikkei Elliott Wave Right Side Calling HigherHello Traders,
Nikkei short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the decline to 22161 on 9/06/2018 low ended red wave 2. Above from there, red wave 3 remain in progress, nesting higher in an impulse structure. With lesser degree cycles showing sub-division of 5 waves structure in each leg higher i.e black wave ((i)), ((iii)) & ((v)) expected to unfold in 5 waves structure. Also, it’s important to note that the right side is up & instrument is having a bullish sequence tag available in below chart. This suggests that the selling is not recommended.
Up from 22161 low, the initial rally to 22750 high black wave ((i)) in 5 waves. The decline to 22535 low ended black wave ((ii)) pullback.
Then the rally higher from there ended black wave ((iii)) at 24120 high. The pullback to 23817 low ended black wave ((iv)). Above from there black wave ((v)) of 3 remain in progress, looking to extend higher as long as the pivot at 23817 stays intact.
Afterwards, the index is expected to do a wave 4 pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling it & expect buyers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 23817 low.
NIKKEI 225 back in positive trend channelThe Nikkei Index had left the positive trend channel after forming a diamond pattern. It fell on the support at 20.600 (fib retracement 61.8%) and rebounded on this level.
Since march 26 it has risen with volatility and reached the lower limit of the trend channel.
It took some days to break through this resistance and it is still not for sure that it´ll stay inside the channel.
Watching the indicators RSI and ADX - they signal a positive trend. This is why I think NIKKEI will remain in the channel.
If so it should climb up to 22.760 and close a gap (feb 06).
This is a hard resistance and we´ll see if there is enough momentum to come further.
Stop:
If the Index falls back well under the lower limit of the trend channel and / or breaking through the neckline of the diamond pattern at 20960.
Nikkei 225 in diamond patternbuy: if price breaks out of this pattern to the top with 1. aim 22.143 pt (fib retracement 78.6%) and 2. aim at 22.763 pt (swing trend line)
another active chart pattern is the existing trend channel which can be considered as strong because it has been tested on the downside several times and the index is sitting just on this limit; so a break of this line signals falling prices
stop: when price breaks through the bottom line at 20.930 pt
indicators: weak - so be careful
NKY Futures: Potential short term bounce to test 23.4I had previously posted my longer term short bias in the USDJPY and NKY but we all need to be aware price action is full of ebbs and flows; it is almost never a straight line up or down. The near term charts of the NY1 (240M) suggests the index is trying to stay north of a 19-month long uptrend with the potential for a CD leg to test 23.4k. Watch out for the double witching in OSE futures and options this Friday, should be interesting.
NY1!: Weekly 135 completion A 135 completion in the NK1! weekly chart coinciding with an ABCD completion in the ES1! weekly. The NKY is finally closing the gap with the USDJPY which looks like it is going to test the 100 handle again.
Nikkei - $NKY - TrendFlex ActiveNikkei - TrendFlex Active Range
TrendFlex Active Score: .95 (moderately bullish)
Price Momentum: Positive
Volatility Range: 21,929 (top end)
21,420 (midpoint)
20,918 (bottom end)
*Note: TrendFlex Active provides a quantitative approach to intraday analysis. By matching up an asset's active score, price momentum and near-term volatility range, traders can decipher when trends begin and when they inflect. An overly bullish score, when combine with the top end volatility range is indicative of take profit or sell. Conversely, the opposite is indicative of a buy or cover.
Each asset profile will be valid only until the end of session. Headline risk may effect daily profiles.
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NKY [17th - 21st Oct]Price continue to respect and trading within the bullish channel. Our bias remains bullish until this channel is violated. Key levels to keep an eye on would be the resistance at 16934 and 17290. A break above these resistance confirms the bullish momentum and can see price rally towards 17904.
Nikkei: Potential for downtrend continuation against resistanceDear trader, I'm short the Nikkei here, speculating on this being the top of the recent 'helicopter money' induced rally.
The Nikkei hit a long term downtrend mode from below, and is now sitting at this level. Would be interesting to see if price proves us right and gives reasons to add to shorts, to join the impending downtrend.
I'm also in a few *JPY shorts, associated to this setup here. I'll post a trade weighted Yen index as well, see related ideas.
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Ivan Labrie
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Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.