Lacking Positive Energy for KMIHistorically when the True Strength Indicator reaches its current level the stock drops a minimum of 1.18% with an average of 5.06% over the next few weeks. I am tracking multiple potential trendchannel support levels and the first level to get hit coincides with a shared support level at 19.83. From the CLOSE on December 30, 2016, movement to this level would equate to a drop around 4.25% which is very realistic.
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Airline CooloffHistorically when the vortex negative hits this level the stock drops at least 1.21% with an average drop around 13.57%. A drop around this average is possible, but DAL has not been trading at large enough daily spreads to make this likely in the next few weeks. A more conservative drop would be near the 47.56 mark which has been a pseudo support/resistance level.
Even more bad indicators for FBHistorically when FB reaches this vortex negative level, the stock drops an average of 6.71%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks.
I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to reap the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018. Large amounts of profit taking can become the catalyst for a near term drop in markets, or a correction which could lead to a greater than 6% drop.
Bold Prediction Unwelcoming to FB fansHistorically when FB reaches this RSI level, the stock drops more than 1% with an average drop of 5.94%. FB is currently in a bearish pennant and due to break out up or down. Based on historics, the pennant, and potential support levels, it looks like a drop to 108.23 is highly likely over the next few weeks.
I am slightly skeptical of the pennant break within the next few trading days, but those believing Trump will reduce capital gains tax rates may conduct massive profit taking for calendar year 2017 while there is profit to be had in order to feel the reward come tax time in Spring of 2018.
The common support level is 0.01% away from the average drop when this RSI has historically been met. This could be a coincidence, but also a helpful indicator of where a selloff could lead.
When it rains it pours on BXHistorically when the coppock curve reaches this level the stock drops at least 1% over the next few weeks with an average drop of more than 11%. I am looking at two levels over that time but also monitoring two timeframes for a significant loss to take place.
My conservative drop is around 25.81 where the stock floated multiple times since the election. This would only be a 4.53%, but conservatively most likely to be a sure thing.
The other play is near the bottom of the trendchannel. BX has dropped from the top of the channel to the bottom twice this year. The first occurred over 11 trading days and the second occurred over 53 trading days. Since BX is already beyond that 11 day point, I marked out 23 days (roughly half of 53) and 53 trading days. If the bottom of the channel is hit, it could happen within one of these timeframes.
A perfect storm of levels are pointing at January 17 (23 days from the top of the trend channel) and January 18 (roughly 10% drop from January 2). The 10 percent drop is a more conservative figure than the average 11.56% decline.
FB pennant ending soonFB is currently forming a pennant and the apex is around the first week in February. Most likely the pennant will break down from its current level, or bounce and break up.
First things first, FB is going down. Historically when the Coppock Curve reaches its current level, the stock drops an average of 7.78% with a minimum move around 0.75%. My conservative take is a slight drop over the next few weeks to at least 115.60. If this is the breakout for the pennant the move could be much lower putting a 7% drop in play.
WHERE IS THE NEXT BOTTOM for BX??Historically when this level is reached on the VI, the stock drops at least another 1.19%. The average drop is 10.92%. A drop beyond 10.92% is not out of the question at this point.
The current trendchannel has a bottom more than 12% from the CLOSE on December 28. My conservative move is a drop to 25.95 where the stock hit eight days in a row at the end of November.
Last time the stock was at 27.33, it dropped 11.45% over the following 11 days which also supports a pending significant drop.
LVS is not done droppingHistorically when VI reaches this level the LVS drops at least another 1%. The average drop is 13.13% with a minimum historical drop of 1.81%.
The support line in the current trend channel would equate to roughly a 6% drop over the next few weeks. I am conservatively forecasting a drop to the 52.45 level which is roughly 3.23% from the close on December 27.
A little more room for AT&T to run upHistorically when the VI reaches this level, the stock rises an average of 2.77% more with a minimal move of 1.22%. If either of those occur, it would be part of a new trend. The stock is now above the previous channel that I have drawn. A commonly hit level is my forecasted move but it is roughly 0.79% from the closing price on December 21.
Historics do not lie, but they are ever changing. If the market continues its rally to #DOW20K then anything is possible. I am personally anticipating a correction in the near term hence my conservative movement for AT&T below the minimal movement ever seen in this situation.
ANOTHER 1% GAIN IN THE CARDS FOR AT&T?Historically when TSI reaches this level the stock climbs an average of 4.93% with the minimal movement of 1.25% over the next few weeks. My technical analysis has T at the top of the downward trendchannel which would signal an immediate retreat.
Both options could still occur in the near future which ultimately lead down, but not before quickly breaching the top of the trendchannel and immediately heading down.
Based on my analysis, the stock could move up to around the 42.70 level which is a commonly hit level from earlier this year. I would expect it to provide a conservative resistance level.
More bad news for LVSA fourth indicator of a drop is based on historical levels for the Coppock Curve. LVS drops on average 11.05% when the Coppock Curve reaches its current mark. My conservative play at this point is a drop to the psychological 49.50 mark. This would bring in around 9% for the stock, but could bring in well over 75% on a properly placed PUT option.
A quick up...and then drop for MDLZ?Historically when the coppock curve reaches this level the stock moves up an average of 4.93%. While I am tracking another indicator pointing down, both can happen. My conservative call is a move around the top of the wedge/trendline (white) and then a possible drop. A well placed call could fetch around 15-20% in a matter of days.
BABA will dropHistorically BABA drops on average 7.57% when the VI reaches its current level. I have laid out 3 potential levels it could drop to. The first hurdle (which should easily be met) is 87.88 (pink dotted line). BABA has not been South of this mark since August. My three levels will certainly be in play once the stock drops past this level.
CONSERVATIVE PLAY:
The stock will drop and a nice solid psychological 85.00 is the position I am most comfortable playing.
AVERAGE DROP:
WIth the average drop of 7.57%, a solid 7% drop above the bottom trendlines is a safer play.
BOTTOM OF PSEUDO TRENDCHANNEL:
Although it is not the "official" bottom of the trendchannel, it has been a more common support line in the current trend. This position is just below the 80 mark which is more than a 10% drop from its current position. This is a riskier bet, but not impossible considering international instability and most stocks being significantly overpriced.
Third indicator of imminent LVS dropMany historical indicators are at play and against the short term for LVS. When the TSI reaches this level is stock drops at least another 1% but drops on average 9.14% over the next few weeks. I have outlined 3 potential points LVS could drop to.
CONSERVATIVE POINT:
With the average drop around 9.14%, an even 9% drop would be around the 51.88 mark and it is within the current trendchannel.
ESTIMATED BOTTOM OF TRENDCHANNEL AFTER NEW YEAR:
The estimated bottom of the trendchannel within the next few weeks is around the 50.50 mark which roughly equates to a 11.42% decline.
PRIOR 2015 INTEREST RATE HIKE DROP:
When interest rates were increased in December 2015, LVS dropped around 20.22% from the OPEN the day after the decision to the bottom before it turned around. This bottom is the current bottom line of the trendchannel, however, a similar 20% drop would bust out of the current trend. Although movement of this nature is most likely not going to be as drastic, nothing can be ruled out.
More bumps in LVS roadHistorically when this indicator surpasses this level, the stock declines by at least 1%. The average decline is 10.85%. There are many fundamentals in play with this technical indicator that will support a decline.
There are three levels to watch, my play is always the most conservative one.
CONSERVATIVE:
A simple 6% drop to around the low from Dec 8 over the next few weeks.
HISTORICAL AVG:
For historical drops, I try to chose a conservative milestone. Even though the average drop is more than 10%, A safe play is a drop to the 52.10 level.
LAST INTEREST RATE INCREASE:
Last time interest rates increased. LVS dropped more than 22% in only 10 trading days! That was exactly two weeks about a year ago. Unsure what the reaction will be this time around since most pundits agree a interest rate increase is not built in to the recent BULL market boost. The stock could drop another 22%, but my conservative play is to the psychological milestone of 48.00.
Third indicator CRM will dropHistorically when CRM hits this level it drops a minimum of 5.23% and an average drop of 13.21%. Historical support is just south of 67.00 so my conservative play is a drop to at least 67.00. This is the third indicator this week signalling a drop in the very near term. Great PUT plays to be had.
More good times ahead for Blackstone?Historically when the stock crosses above this RSI level it moves at least 1% over the next few weeks. The average move is 11.32%. A move of that magnitude is possible to a common resistance level around 34.85.
My conservative move would be to the 31.00 milestone so long as it breaks above its resistance level for this calendar year which is where it currently sits.
The best case scenario is to wait one more day to see if it breaks the 2016 resistance, especially on volume. If this occurs, my conservative goal is certainly in play but the next viable ceiling could be around 34.85. This stock has just received multiple STRONG BUY recommendations which could easily propel it.
MORE DOWN DAYS TO COME FOR LVSHistorically when LVS surpasses this RSI level, the stock drops at least one more percent over the next few weeks. In fact the minimal drop is 2.93% with an average drop of 6.17%. The bottom of the trend channel is well beyond the 6% but my conservative play is a drop to the 53 milestone which would net around 3% and most likely around 30% with a PUT option.
Historically singular large drops for LVS are not isolated incidents and the stock continues downward in the immediate days following a shock drop like the one that occurred on Dec 8, 16.
ADDITIONAL INDICATOR CRM is heading downFor the second trading day in a row, another historical indicator points to continued decline for CRM. Historically when TSI breaks below this level, the stock drops at least 1.05%, with an average of 2.37%. There are two long term support trendlines and the nearest is around 65.30.
A conservative drop to around 65.75 within the next few weeks is my safer play. PUT options could bring in 15-35% if placed appropriately.
The long term trend is a wedge with an apex around 68.88 for November 2017. Most like the stock will break the wedge prior to that point but could be entering a state of less than 10 point moves over many months.
SALES PROBLEM FOR SALESFORCE?Historically when the RSI for CRM hits this level, the stock drops at least 1%. The more likely figure is 4.82%. A conservative drop continues along one of the many trendlines. My play is a drop of around 3.83%.
This play could bring in 20-41% with perfectly placed PUTs.
No news is good news, especially FAKE news for FBHistotically, when the VI (negative) reaches this level, FB drops at least 0.74%. All trendlines have been busted and an actual bottom to this disaster is unknown. Some advertisers may be unwilling to play FB's game and the value of the stock could easily continue to suffer.
Once this VI level is breeched, the average drop is 4.82%. I have chosen a more conservative drop based on recent common support levels. My safer play is a decent PUT position that can easily bring in 20-40% within two weeks.
NO-GO for GOPROStill going down.My conservative play is only 2.34% to a common support level. Historical when the VI (negative) breaks above this level, the stock drops an average of 15.12% over the next few weeks. The minimal move is 1.25%.
Fortunately or not, there is not much room to drop. Holiday shoppers are most likely looking for deals and the price tag on GPRO products versus lower priced competitors continues to make GO PRO a NO-GO.
GM break out is not overHistorically when the RSI breaks above this level, the stock continues to gain at least 1% more. In looking for the next trendline and resistance level, a conservative level would be above 38.00. While that level is likely the safer play is a call with anticipated movement to at least 37.67.