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NOK

EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bounded in bearish patternsThe movement of EUR/NOK has been bounded in several patterns. Following a two-week period of appreciation, the pair bounced off the upper boundary of the senior channel and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 9.70 and formed a new wave downwards. This movement has been relatively flat, as the Euro has since remained trading near the senior channel. By mid-today, the pair was testing the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 50.0% Fibo line at 9.61. The current positioning of the pair suggests that it should decline both in the short and medium term. The nearest target is the bottom boundary of the junior channel and the 61.8% Fibo at 9.52, while a downward-sloping trend-line circa 9.42 could be targeted within the following two weeks. The 9.60 area still needs to be breached to confirm this scenario. Conversely, a breakout of the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 9.63 is likely to result in a re-test of the senior channel circa 9.68.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Bearish correction expectedThe US Dollar has appreciated substantially against the Norwegian Krone this week. The pair shot up 2.82% in just one session, thus moving away from the 2016/2018 low of 7.64 and confirming one more time a downward-sloping trend-line circa 7.8820. The pair has since edged slightly lower in order to ease from the aforementioned daily surge. It is likely that the current bearish sentiment continues to prevail in the market during the following week. A breakout of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, the weekly R1 and the 55-hour SMA near 7.8270 could be an early indication of this bearish scenario. The following support of significance is formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs near 7.60. In general, the Greenback could target the bottom trend-line and the monthly R1 in the 7.66 territory next week. On the other hand, in case the strong resistance of the weekly R2, the monthly PP and the trend-line is breached near 7.860, the rate should push towards 8.00.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
SWISS INVESTORS LOOK ELSEWHERE PT. 2"We expect risk appetite to rebound, helped by benign wage growth in the US. In this environment, short CHFNOK trades should do well. Recent Norwegian macro data have generally beaten market expectations, with forward looking indicators like PMI also holding up well. NOK also receives additional support from rallying oil price which helps its oil sector, as evidenced in the strong regional network survey (next 6m outlook reaching the highest level since 2012),which has historically set the tone for the Norges Bank. On the CHF side, we expect Swiss private investors to invest more abroad with the Italian election and German SPD vote confirming that the risk of Eurozone break-up remains low, and the ECB continuing to move towards policy normalisation. We do not expect the SNB to change its accommodative policy this week given uncertainty over the impending vote on the Swiss sovereign money initiative in June and inflation still far below 2%. The SNB may continue to limit the CHF upside, as the sight deposits data suggests that they resumed FX interventions when EURCHF was hovering around 1.15. The risks to this trade are the Norges Bank striking a dovish tone or the SNB being more hawkish this week." Morgan Stanley
Short
by itzbert
1
NOK'D DOWNCurrent levels of EUR/NOK could offer interesting selling opportunities. NOK should outperform EUR in the coming weeks and months on the back of growing policy divergence between the Norges Bank’s policy outlook and the ECB’s, which is reflected in an increasingly negative 2Y EUR-NOK rate spread. The divergence could intensify as both banks start to cautiously normalise their policies. Investors may continue to see NOK as a higher beta proxy for the EUR, as NOK tends to outperform when the EUR is supported. EUR/NOK could see 9.40 by the middle of the year. However, depending on incoming data, an undershoot cannot be excluded. Credit to Credit Agricole Investment Bank
Short
by itzbert
USD/NOK Dominant resistance is testedAlthough many resistance levels were passed on other US Dollar's pairs during the fundamental surge of the Buck generated testimony of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell., the USD/NOK pair’s resistance has held its ground. Namely, the resistance of the large scale pattern, which represents the pair’s decline since late 2017, has held its ground. Its upper trend line had enough power to hold. However, it was strengthened by the weekly R1 at the 7.9194 level. Meanwhile, during the recent trading sessions a new long term pattern was spotted, which is a result of the pair bouncing off the lower trend line of a multi year pattern. To keep it short, the mentioned patterns are set to face one another in the upcoming trading sessions and a triangle pattern is likely to form and result in a break out.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bullish in medium termAfter bouncing off the senior channel on January 29, the common European currency began a new up-wave and formed an ascending channel along the way. The rate tested this junior pattern two weeks ago prior to edging lower down to the 6.68 area where it is trading today. A closer look at the pair’s previous movement demonstrates that the Euro has been successful at respecting channels. Thus, it is likely that the aforementioned junior channel is able to constrain the rate next week, as well. A possible target for the following sessions could be the upper boundary of a three-month channel in the 9.76/78 territory. The rate’s subsequent movement is likewise expected northwards in line with the senior channel. On the other hand, if the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 9.6710 do not hold, the pair might be poised for a fall down to the senior channel circa 9.60/62.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rate trades in channel downThe US Dollar has been trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone since mid-November. As apparent on the chart, the Greenback has moved in neat channels within the bounds of this pattern. After reversing from the senior channel and the 50.00% Fibo retracement at 8.0271 on February 9, the pair has since formed a new short-term channel down. Taking all this into account, it is expected that the Greenback might continue depreciating against its Norwegian counterpart within the following trading sessions. This movement could be confined within the drawn junior channel. A possible downside target for the following week could be the 2016/2018 high of 7.6353. The US Dollar did already reverse from this level on two separate occasions during 2018; thus, a subsequent surge is the most likely scenario.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 4H Chart: Surge in sight The Euro began weakening against the Norwegian Krone after reaching the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel located at the nine-year high of 9.9880. The pair reached a one-year up-trend marked with the dotted line late in January and subsequently began surging in a steep upward movement. The pair was testing the 23.60% Fibo retracement (low and high at 8.7883 and 9.9949, respectively) and the 200-period SMA circa 9.70 today. The current positioning of the pair suggests that the Euro might be due for a slight decline down to the 55– and 100-period SMAs and the trend-line during the following trading sessions prior to breaching the upper boundary of the aforementioned resistance area and accelerating towards the 9.90 mark.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair respects senior channelThe US Dollar has made a sharp recovery against the Norwegian Krone during the past trading sessions. This strong upward movement comes after the pair bounced off the bottom boundary of a long-term descending channel circa 7.63. Given that this line was respected, the pair is likely to advance even further within the following week or two, setting the 8.05 area as a possible target. In the short term, however, traders might see a brief correction south down to the combined support of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP located at 7.71. In case this area does not hold, the US Dollar should be stopped by the channel line near 7.63. Subsequently, the rate should accelerate and move higher, as already described previously.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair consolidates near four-month lowThe US Dollar has been trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone since mid-October. The bottom boundary of this pattern was tested last Wednesday when the pair hit a four-month low of 7.82. It has remained relatively stable during the past week. The Greenback re-tested the aforementioned low a few sessions later but nevertheless failed to form a distinct wave either up or down. It is expected that the pair continues to approach the upper boundary of both channels near the 7.88 mark. The steepness of the longer-term channel demonstrate that this pattern could be breached in the nearest time. However, the Greenback should still overcome a significant resistance cluster set by the 100– and 55-hour SMAs, the weekly PP and the monthly S3 circa 7.87; the 200-hour SMA is likewise located nearby at 7.92. A successful breakout of these levels might suggest that the upside momentum towards the 8.01 area is to persist for several sessions.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Pair likely to breach triangle soonFollowing a southern breakout of a three-month ascending channel, the Euro started to weaken against the Norwegian Krone, thus resulting in a formation of an opposing channel. This pattern was likewise breached on Friday, thus leaving the rate in a symmetrical triangle—a pattern that has already reached its maturity. Currently, the pair is stranded between the 200-hour SMA from above and the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP from below. Given the strength of the southern barrier, it is more likely that the former is breached. In order to confirm a surge, the pair should also breach the monthly S1 and the weekly R1 circa 9.7050. A possible upside target in this scenario could be the monthly PP circa 9.85. On the other hand, the 9.56 area should limit further losses in case bears take the upper hand.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Unhappy christmas for USD, and new year's eve too ;-)A negative market pressure on USD continue to push USD to lower prices. This is really clear on crosses with huge movement. On USDNOK a long term market pressure of -4.8 and a short term market pressure of -6.8 is driving the prices in a continue fall, and the market did'nt find an hard rock bottom. This analysis is based on market pressure. On my twitter profile twitter.com you can find everyday the market pressure value for all crosses. Have a nice trading !
Short
by MarketMiracleAdvisor
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Breached long-term channelThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone in a channel up since late August. During this period of appreciation, the pair managed to reach its six-month high of 8.4161 on December 21. After that, the bearish sentiment took over and thus allowed for a breakout of the aforementioned long-term channel earlier this week. It is expected that the Greenback could be tended north during the following sessions; however, this upward movement might not be very significant. A possible target in this case might be the 8.2690 area, as the monthly and weekly PPs and the 200-hour SMA are located nearby. By and large, the bearish sentiment should eventually prevail and thus push the rate lower.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Greenback re-tests channelThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone in a channel up for the last four months. The trading range within this pattern, however, shifted upwards when the rate failed to reach the bottom channel boundary three weeks ago. The same situation occurred last week. As apparent on the chart, the Greenback was trading between 8.2523 and 8.3509 since late November. A massive surge last week breached this range and allowed for a re-test of the upper channel boundary circa 8.39. Technical indicators suggest that the rate is likely to either move lower or remain near 8.38 during the following day. The nearest resistance is the monthly R1 and weekly R2 circa 8.41, while significant support is set by the 100– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 8.31. It is likely that the US Dollar starts weakening during the second half of this week, thus approaching the monthly PP at 8.2551.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Euro points to weaknessThe common European currency has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone in an ascending since late September. This pattern has guided the pair up to the 9.9156 mark—its highest level during the past several years. Apart from this channel, the pair is likewise trading in a junior one valid since November 21. Its slope is relatively steep; however, as apparent on the chart, the Euro has failed to initiate a solid wave up. This suggests that a change in the bullish sentiment might occur soon. This assumption is likewise supported by technical indicators. In terms of support, the pair might hinder near the 9.75 area near where the monthly PP, the 200-hour SMA and the weekly S1 are located.
by UnknownUnicorn890690