NOK
GBP/NOKTechnical:
- The Pair has found resistance at the 61.8 Daily Fib (Price: 11.224) and slight support/testing the 38.2% Weekly Fib (Price: 10.989).
o Looks like it will break that support.
- Looking to open short after strong daily close under the 38.2 Fib and Enter a moderate Short
o For active traders, Stack.1 will be a close below the 50.0% Daily Fib (Price: 10.90)
Fundamental
- GBP: CPI (YoY) release Tuesday, 16/5/17
- GBP: Average Earning Index + Bonus (Wednesday, 17/5/17)
- GBP: Unemployment Rate (Wednesday, 17/5/17)
- GBP: Retail Sales (MoM) (Thursday, 18/5/17)
Announcement wise the GBP will lead the pack with some core economic data coming out which will definitely test those support levels.
Down Trend Confirmed The 14. of March it failed making new highs. Didn't get much support yesterday to stay at 10ema. Indications is leaning towards a short, but major moving averages is coming up, and one should be aware that it might mean it'll zig zag in the shorter term charts. Pretty lofty SL I have set for my self. Looking through the macro economics show that Norway isn't as strong as they used to be. Currently I believe more in the dollar.
EU Losing MomentumEU have had a good run lately, but it seems over, for now at least. EURNOK is a bit special to me. Won a lot, lost a bit, yet, I keep fixating on it because of the large swings and very clear formations it makes. Finally it has come to a point when it is either breaking out short or consolidating. Looking at the past six days, it couldn't make new tops, it's sliding downwards. To add on that, short-term MACD, RSI and mid-term Stochastic seems to agree on most charts, that it's going downwards.
EURNOK New BreakoutA breakout just happened on this pair. I'm only in for a small amount, because EUR has released strong numbers and volume isn't strong. It have been building up cash for over a weak now. But it's a solid breakout, with an exhausted candle yesterday. There is always the chance it might pull back a bit, in US market open, so you could wait. If RSI is diving under 25.0000 I might add to my short position.
Eurnok Short At Major SupportANALYSIS AND RESEARCH:
We can say that it is moving in clear consolidation zone and for most traders this area is more interesting for trend reversal trades and it acts like the same so in our opinion if it drops more and breaks below lower trend Line then we can expect it to drop more towards the flag possibly.
Eur on overall basis acts as weak pair so keep an eye on that as well.
Extra News Related to this Pair:
According to zukumati sarkoshi our cheif analyst saying that if it drops below the lower major support it is armageddon for eur/nok pair let us see which way it will fall.
NZDNOK @ daily @ last 5 trading days down! What`s next?Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
more 4XSetUps @ 1482 Major Cross-Rates (741 on both sides) @ my GOOGLE Drive
drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
USD/NOK viewI suggest that traders short the Norwegian Krone against the USD for the following reasons:
/dx has broken out of its ~2yr consolidation pattern amid Trump's fiscal stimulus promises and subsequent repricing of the Fed's hiking cycle in anticipation of higher US growth and inflation.
NOK remains highly vulnerable to /cl as >50% of Norway's exports are energy-related (34% = crude petroleum and 25% = petroleum gases). Potential OPEC-inspired oil volatility and vulnerability (if a strong cut, or any cut at all, fails to materalise, which is my personal base case given recent rhetoric from Saudi Arabia; namely words to the effect of, "balancing can occur without cuts") will weigh heavily on NOK, sending this pair much higher.
On a more long-term level, oil and gas companies in Norway have drastically cut spending forecasts for 2017, deepening what was already a record reduction in offshore investment.
Main risk to the trade is OPEC cutting production significantly (or at least creating that perception to markets). In this case, I would use the opportunity to buy USDNOK at lower levels as any material increase in oil prices (to around $55-$60 on a 'strong cut') will enable US shale producers to "come online" (with lag, of course), aiding supply and sending /cl to near current levels again. It is very difficult to envisage a world in which oil comfortably sustains above $60 under current conditions. A token OPEC cut will not change this, I do not believe.
$DB is gunning for 9.05000 by Q2 '17; $GS and $MS also want around 9.00000 with time.
I personally look to buy this pair on dips.
USDNOK. Incredible BAT pattern and over-extended GartleyChek out a mega-BAT pattern which have been developing for almost 15 years! It completed by December last year but there is still a piece of a downtrend which can be taken.
Will short from 8.21 or by market
SL: 8.42
TP: 7.44
Long based on an overextended Gartley:
Entry point: 7.45
SL: 7.25
TP1: 8.02
TP2: 8.40
TP3: 10.00 (not based on these patterns)
USDNOK - Short SetupUSDNOK looks overextended with finally signal of deceleration with a reversed red hammer high test at the 0.5 Fib retracement at multiple key levels:
1) resistance at around 8.36
2) 50-60 EMA rejection
3) 200-250 EMA rejection
4) Downsloping trendline from July 27, 2016
5) 0.50 Fib Retracement
We have also Stock RSI in overbought status on daily and a clear MACD Divergence on 1 hr time frame
EUR/NOK breaks major support 9.2570, good to go short on ralliesNorway's core inflation surged to record highs in July, dampening Norges Bank’s rate cut speculation.
The Krone has surged after inflation data release. EUR/NOK hit multi-week lows at 9.2094.
The pair has broken major trendline support at 9.2570 on the daily charts, we see scope for further downside.
50-DMA at 9.3507 is major resistance on the upside, while 9.1970 is next major support on the flipside.
Good to go short on rallies around 9.2500, SL: 9.3510, TP: 9.1970/ 9.1550/ 9.1375