EUR/NOK has a strong bullish momentum, could it rise further?The price is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 11.8178
1st Support: 11.7168
1st Resistance: 12.0124
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NOK
NOK Nokia Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NOK Nokia prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 4usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-7-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.09.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
USDNOK Buy opportunity above the 1D MA50.The USDNOK pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern for the past 2 years (since June 2022) and right now is consolidating right below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after holding the Higher Lows Zone.
Within this 2-year pattern, every time the price broke above the 1D MA50 following a bottom bounce, the new Bullish Leg was initiated. Our Target is 11.000 (just below the Lower Highs trend-line).
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EURNOK Strong buy opportunity.The EURNOK pair has made contact today with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance for the first time since May 16. This is the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 1-year Triangle pattern.
All bottoms (green arcs) have been formed when the 1D RSI broke below the 30.00 oversold barrier, so this is technically a medium-term buy opportunity.
The previous Lower High was priced on the 0.85 Fibonacci retracement level and the one before on the 0.95. As a result, our medium-term Target is 11.7500 (just below the 0.85 Fib).
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Nokia to acquire Infinera in 2.3B USD dealNokia Corp ADR is poised to significantly enhance its capabilities in the optical equipment sector with the 2.3 billion USD acquisition of Infinera Corp. This strategic move aims to double Nokia's capacity to produce data centres integrated with artificial intelligence, positioning the company to compete more effectively with industry giants like Huawei and Ciena.
Post-acquisition, Nokia is set to become the second-largest player in the global networking sector, surpassing Ciena and trailing only behind China's Huawei. The deal is anticipated to immediately boost Nokia's profits, with expectations that Infinera's contributions will increase Nokia's net profit by more than 10% by 2027. Additionally, the acquisition will enable Nokia to accelerate the development and release of new products, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the telecom equipment market.
Technical analysis of Nokia Corp ADR (NYSE: NOK)
Examining the stock chart from a technical analysis perspective:
Timeframe: Daily (D1)
Current trend: There has been a global uptrend since the end of December 2023
Resistance level: 3.85 USD
Support level: 3.55 USD
Potential downtrend target: If a downtrend forms, the potential downside target could be set at 2.50 USD
Short-term target: If the uptrend continues and the stock breaks the resistance at 3.85 USD, the short-term target could be set at 4.10 USD
Medium-term target: The price could potentially rise to 4.35 USD
This acquisition not only promises to bolster Nokia's financial performance but also strategically positions the company at the forefront of innovation in the networking and data centre industries. Investors may want to monitor this stock closely as the market reacts to this significant corporate development.
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Nokia Has Completed the Acquisition of Fenix GroupNokia ( NYSE:NOK ) has completed the acquisition of Fenix Group, a privately held company specializing in tactical communications solutions for the defense communities yet the stock is down 2.53% on Thursday's market trading. The acquisition, announced in December 2023, strengthens Nokia's position in the defense sector by adding Fenix's broadband tactical communications products, such as the Banshee family and Talon MANET radios, to its existing solutions portfolio.
This expanded portfolio will allow Nokia ( NYSE:NOK ) to offer a more comprehensive suite of 3GPP-based solutions to its defense customers worldwide. Interoperable, 3GPP-based mobile networks will play an important role in the digitalization of military communications. The acquisition, including the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) review and approval, marks a significant milestone in Nokia's U.S. strategy and underscores its commitment to being a trusted provider of secure and innovative solutions to the U.S. Federal government.
The combination of Nokia ( NYSE:NOK ) and Fenix supports the objective of bringing dual-use technology capabilities to the warfighter. Mike Loomis, President of Nokia Federal Solutions, said the acquisition marks a significant step forward in Nokia's strategy to grow its defense business and overall U.S. strategy. Dave Peterson, CEO of Fenix Group, expressed excitement about joining forces with Nokia, stating that by combining their innovative solutions with Nokia's global reach and resources, they can create even greater value for customers and make a significant impact on the future of secure military communications.
USDNOK One of the best sells in the market.The USDNOK pair has formed a cyclical top on the 1D time-frame and is currently pulling back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been supporting since March 14 2024. If broken, we expect a a 2nd dip to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as well and as it pierces through the (green) Ichimoku Cloud, stage a dead-cat-bounce back at its top and the 1D MA50.
That should give way to the 2nd part of the Bearish Leg towards the 2-year Higher Lows Zone. Our target is on the top of that Zone at 10.400. Take profit earlier if the 1D RSI breaks below the 30.00 oversold barrier before the price reaches 10.400.
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Battle of the Vikings - Ragnar vs EarlIn the duel of the Nordic nations between the strong Norwegian Ragnar (NOK) and the fierce Swedish Earl (SEK), only one can survive.
I am betting my gold coins on the Norwegian krone for the following reasons:
- NOKSEK is fundamentally undervalued
-> fundamentally the pair should rather be trading at 1.04 - 1.05
- Norges Bank surprised EVERYONE (including me) with an interest rate hike last week
-> inflation is still giving it a hard time
- Oil saw some strength again recently
- NOKSEK with a seasonally strong phase in January and February
- Norges Bank could reduce its NOK sales in the new year
- Rebalancing flows
From a Swedish perspective:
- The unemployment rate has recently been higher than expected (looting Vikings are currently less in demand)
- Swedish inflation rate fell more than expected (due to house prices (no, not Viking huts))
- Riksbank sold more FX reserves than expected within its hedging programme
-> less powder available
A NOKout in round 1 - Why the NOK will win 2024Over the past two years, the Norwegian krone has undoubtedly been one of the big losers in the FX market.
Not only has it embarrassingly been constantly beaten up even against the EUR and traded at an all-time low, no, since November 2022 it has bottomed vs. ALL G10 currencies.
This was hardly surprising as almost all fundamental factors spoke against the NOK.
However, the tide will turn dramatically in 2024:
NOK positive:
➡️ Energy prices appear to have bottomed out and could rise again🟢
➡️ The oil price seems to be stabilising around the USD 60-70 mark and could rise in the event of a soft landing🟢
➡️ January and February are seasonally positive for the NOK🟢
➡️ Norges Bank surprised EVERYONE in December by raising interest rates again🟢
➡️ Norges Bank enters 2024 as one of the hawkishest of the G10 central banks
➡️ A further rate hike by Norges Bank in early 2024 cannot be ruled out🟢
➡️ It would raise interest rates while virtually all other central banks would be in rate cut mode🟢
➡️ Norges Bank will drastically reduce its NOK purchases from January (as previously announced by me in the NOKSEK Tradeidee ), see here:
I get NOKed down.. but I get up again...You're never gonna keep me down,
I get NOKed down, but I get up again,
You're never gonna keep me down!
Now that you all hopefully have the song stuck as much into your head as I have ;) we can go straight to the facts:
It is true that over the past two years, the Norwegian krone has all too often been one of the big losers in the FX market.
Not only has it embarrassingly been constantly beaten up against the EUR and traded at an all-time low, but it has even brought up the rear of ALL G10 currencies since November 2022.
This was hardly surprising as almost all fundamental factors spoke against the NOK.
However, the tide will turn dramatically in 2024, especially in the EURNOK:
NOK positive:
➡️ Energy prices appear to have bottomed out and could rise again.
➡️ The oil price appears to be stabilising at the USD 60-70 mark and could rise if necessary in the event of a soft landing
➡️ January and February are seasonally positive for the NOK
➡️ Norges Bank surprised EVERYONE in December by raising interest rates again
➡️ Norges Bank enters 2024 as one of the hawkishest of the G10 central banks
➡️ A further rate hike by Norges Bank in early 2024 cannot be ruled out
➡️ It would raise interest rates while virtually all other central banks would be in rate-cutting mode
➡️ Norges Bank will drastically reduce its NOK purchases from January (as previously announced by me in the NOKSEK Tradeidee) , see here:
My CHFNOK Short should also be a sure winner in 2024:
EURNOK Bearish short-term.The EURNOK pair is currently testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), being at the same time supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This ranged trade is the Higher High after the pair bottomed on December 27 2023 and started rising within a Channel Up.
Based on the similar bottom rebound after the July 25 2023 Low, we expect the pair to reach the 0.5 Fibonacci level and then reverse downwards. If that happens we will sell there and target 11.3200 (Fib 0.236).
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EURNOK - Catch The Final Wave!EURNOK is currently in wave 4, which appears to be a flat correction. Flat corrections consist of 3(A) 3(B) 5(C) subwaves. We are currently in wave C = 5 subwaves. We are anticipating one final move down to complete wave C.
Trade Idea:
- Enter on break of trendline or signs of reversal
- stops above blue structure or above price once entry trendline breaks
- Targets: 11.2 (3000pips), Taper thereafter
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
USDNOK: Buy signal.USDNOK is trading inside a Channel Up for almost four months, with the 1D MA50 supporting as the medium term Support. The very healthy bullish 1D technicals (RSI = 62.188, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 41.092) indicate that the current price action will lead higher so we are buying into today's strength and aim at another +4.60% rise (TP = 11.500).
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Nokia and Cybernet deploy Pakistan’s first 6G commercial networkKarachi, Pakistan – Nokia and Cybernet, the leading fixed-line telecommunications provider in Pakistan, today announced they have deployed the country’s first DWDM network operating at 600Gbps per wavelength. The DWDM network enables Cybernet to deliver a high capacity, robust network that is capable of meeting requirements of even the most demanding customers. This new optical network connects Cybernet’s main metro sites and provides the enhanced network capacity needed to support growing consumer and enterprise demand for fast, high-quality broadband services across Pakistan.
By further strengthening its global footprint through the establishment of its international points of presence (POPs) in MC-1 in Barka (Oman), MRS-2 in Marseille (France), SmartHub in Fujairah (UAE) and SG1 in Singapore, Cybernet is providing its global peering community members with its advanced IXP platform powered by the Nokia 7750 SR and 7250 IXR routers. This platform ensures optimum connection capacity to meet both current and future needs. Cybernet offers Internet, EVPN and MPLS-based services with rich Quality of Service (QoS) at its international POPs.
To better meet the rising demand for high-speed broadband access and network speeds, operators are looking to upgrade their optical networks. Committed to ensuring its customers can tap into the high-speed services it provides, Cybernet partnered with Nokia for the deployment of a future-proof optical network capable of delivering over 600Gbps per lambda. This enhances the capacity and speed of its network used to connect main metro sites within the country. Leveraging Nokia’s PSS 1830 optical transport platform, Cybernet can effectively scale its total network capacity to 28Tbs, serving broadband and enterprise customers across Pakistan.
Cybernet successfully implemented Nokia’s advanced integrated ROADM architecture based on flexgrid technology. Through this deployment, Cybernet can better optimize and extend the reach of its optical network
EURNOK One of the best long-term sellsThe EURNOK pair has topped on the long-term having made a Cycle peak on the week of May 29 2023. So far however, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has (nearly) held twice as Support, but both rebounds failed to cross above the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
This price action is very similar to the previous Cycle peak of March 2020, leading to a 1W MA50 rebound that again failed to break above the 0.618 Fibonacci. The direct consequence was a Channel Down to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the -0.382 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we will sell as long as the price is below the 0.618 Fib and target 10.9000, a projected contact with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
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EURNOK: Ascending Broadening Wedge Potential Partial RiseWe have a potential Partial Rise at a 61.8% Retrace within an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern on the EURUSD with a Bearish PPO Confirmation Arrow.
If we hit the Demand Line from here, it is very likely it will break down and hit the Measured Move Target down at 7.22
USDNOK: Confirmed Bullish Butterfly at Structural Demand LineUSDNOK is sitting at the Demand Line of an Overall Bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern that happens to align with the 1.272-1.618 PCZ of a Bullish Butterfly; along with that, we have PPO Confirmation, RSI BAMM, and a MACD Bullish Crossing. Given the scenario, I can see this trying to retrace up 50-88.6% of the Harmonic Range before coming back down and confirming a partial rise, after which we will then possibly have to look for opposing Bearish signals.
NOK Nokia Oyj Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of NOK Nokia Oyj prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 4usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
USDNOK Can See More Weakness As Crude Tryign To FInd A SupportCrude oil is trying to stabilize ahead of the FED today, showing some interesting intraday recovery from around $67.00 per barrel. Can be a small impulse, but I want to see a steady recovery ehre and possibly a broken resistance line to make sure that w-x-y in E of (B) is completed. Also, the global oil supply fell 660k bpd in May on OPEC+ cuts, which can help to stabilize oil price going forward. With higher crude I like NOK. Keep in mind that crude oil and USDNOK, both traded south recently, but crude trying to stabilize now. If it closes higher today, then USDNOK can see much more weakness. Current bears on USDNOK are also acting impulsively so far.
GH
Bed Bath and Beyond - Buy the Uncanny Valley and Delete RedditOne of the first things you might ask yourself with this call is "How did a bull get stuck in a washer and dryer?"
The people who look more closely might ask "Why is this bull living out of a washer and a dryer?"
The short answer to both of these questions is that the dude listened to Reddit.
I say this in every post about memestocks, but Reddit isn't your friend. It isn't even social media. It's a social marketing and social influencing website masquerading as an organically-created and consensus-driven forum.
Moreover, the Chinese Communist Party's Tencent took a big stake in it many years ago and it spreads all the worst trash of Marxist-Leninsm.
Perhaps if Reddit had have collapsed in bankruptcy then the future would have been a lot brighter for several million young people. Too late for crying now, though.
Scrolling through Reddit is the intellectual equivalent of eating eight or nine bags of potato chips everyday and then complaining that you're fat and girls don't want to marry you.
There are two things Reddit is there for when it comes to trading. One is to condition you to feel that losing money, and a lot of it, is both normal and okay.
It's not.
If you're losing money trading, then you need to fix something, and fast, or just take your money and go buy yourself something nice with it, because you're obviously just gambling and are missing something fundamental in both your understanding and execution.
Wanting to get rich, and quick, will do that.
The second thing Reddit is there for is to indoctrinate your mind with pornography, socialism, Marxism, and atheism, and it happens all while you think you're reading the words and feelings of other people who are just like you.
But they're not just like you. They're not even people.
They're "professional" community organizers who are sitting in a cubicle referencing a flowchart pinned to its grey cushions collecting their $16 an hour and you can't figure it out because they told you that the very idea is a "conspiracy theory."
Bed Bath is this company that sucks and is going bankrupt. Don't believe it? Just go to a store and ask yourself why you're there instead of on Amazon on your phone.
That didn't stop BBBY from yielding 4 and 5 baggers if you happened to buy the bottom and sell the top (you didn't, Ken Griffin's trading desk did, though), and that's exactly the issue.
So the story with BBBY is that Hudson Bay Capital and a bunch of other Wall Street money effectively put a $1 billion blood infusion into Bed Bath. This comes in the form of some convertible preferred stock that has a profitable floor of about 71 cents and a ceiling of about $3.61, according to Bloomberg .
What's 500% among friends? That's what I always say.
So, taking a look at Reddit, there's two really notable things on this stock:
1) In the last two weeks there's almost a total blackout on BBBY from the WallStreetBets pump-and-dump-to-dumb-money brigade.
2) The Bed Bath subreddit has desperate bulls looking for the "MOASS" (Mother of All Short Squeezes), despite it already doing it twice in quick succession (lol, shows you their entry is higher than $5 and $7, doesn't it?), and telling each other to quickly "DRS" (Direct Register, AKA put your BBBY in an off-exchange personal wallet) in an attempt to mess with the float to manipulate Hudson's equity position on their convertible contracts.
After thinking about it for a while, I believe the blackout on BBBY on WSB is because the idea is to not attract the attention of retail buyers to the stock now that "everyone knows" BBBY is going bankrupt.
In other words, the PR company and the people who pay the PR company, who manage Reddit's trading forums, don't want people to buy cheap.
The BBBY forum is acting as mentally ill as it is because bag holders are feeling desperate and dosing a heavy stimpak of hopium.
All of this leads us to believe that, despite the reversal pattern that the short-dumpster to $7 produced, a new all time low is incoming.
After all, Hudson's risk is profitable above 71 cents, Bloomberg says. The ATL is 88 cents. This is 20%, by the way, and 20% is a lot. If you got a 20% move on the Nasdaq while holding a QQQ call you'd make like $4,000 a contract.
The thing to understand is that smart money isn't like you are, who is eternally unhedged and emotionally unstable. Hudson is hedged and really couldn't care less if BBBY goes under 71 cents for a few days because they'll just buy more. And they have a strategy to profit from the plummet in the meantime.
Of course they'll buy more. They obviously see a lot of upside to risk $1 billion on a bankrupt shitco retail chain that was trading at a 2-handle when they donated blood.
So, what kind of upside is there? Well, frankly speaking, the upside is this weird double top left at $30 during the RYAN F'IN COHEN pump and dump last year:
It might sound too good to be true, but look. BBBY short interest ending Jan. 13 and Jan. 31 are both twice as high as it was during the Cohen/Reddit retail rape.
Moreover, according to the most recent institutional holdings filings dated 12/31, only nobody firms sold out of BBBY.
While names like Bank of America and Barclays reduced their positions, bigger and more important names like Blackrock, Vanguard, Morgan Stanley, and Citadel increased their holdings.
Did they not know BBBY was on the verge of bankruptcy and stood to get delisted like Party City just did? Of course they knew. They know what comes three and six months from now, too.
A lot of the same big names decreased their holdings in Party City before the bankruptcy
Another key factor is at Friday's close Bed Bath is only worth like $211 million in market cap. Even a 20 bagger is only $4 billion. A 20 bagger from <$1 is only $2 billion in MCap.
For Bed Bath to go to $30 or $60 in the end requires some crazy fundamental thing, like perhaps Buy Buy Baby really does get split into its own stock, awarded to BBBY shareholders, and you get a Kodak 2020-style candle.
It's hard to say, but if you buy at 60 cents and it goes to $2.4 and you sell it all, who really cares?
Nobody except for Wall Street truly knows either what is going to happen or when it's going to happen.
But for now, it seems to me that the thing that will generate the most alpha for the MMs is to dump BBBY under its $0.88c ATL, probably while Nasdaq and the indexes feign beartown and volatility goes up.
This will cause capitulation from retail bag holders, because that's how retail does it, while the WSB brigade won't buy because they're not being told to buy.
Imo, this is the idea of everything going on right now.
So you can buy the really low prices. But there's a lot of risk. Maybe BBBY goes Chapter 11 and gets delisted and liquidated in receivership, though.
Life is hard and you lose a lot, no matter how you want to gain. You still lose a lot.
Buy a $0.6 handle and try to hold a winner to $30. I dare you.
Frankly speaking, holding a winner is really hard. In some ways it's a lot harder than holding a loser. The way to do it, though, is if you can bag some multiples, is to sell a portion equal to your risk and let the freeroll run until the entire market at large is showing the warning signs of a crash.
Then dump it all and never touch it again.
So, stay safe, lawyer up, hit the gym, and most importantly, delete Reddit.