Get started

NOK

ridethepig | NOK for the Yearly Close📌 NOK for the Yearly Close Now comes the traditional complex NOK and SEK map complex. I have mentioned a number of times SEK was in a very good position for sellers, now NOK is joining the disco because it is unlikely that dollar can manage to force the defence. A very amusing chart, for those with a background in waves we are playing the breakdown on a 5 wave multi-decade flow ending. Here we are dealing with a remarkable position for sellers, a staggering -12% downside to go to the nearest support ....meaning the manoeuvre is intended to put pressure on our opponent as one might suppose with capitulation. Invalidation can be defined above the latent outside reversal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | G10 FX Christmas Chartbook 🎄 @ridethepig | G10 FX Christmas Chartbook 📌 USD - devaluation continuation is the name of the game ...the breakdown is cooking; Biden has turned dollar into an awful shelter. Look for cover elsewhere, a 'digital dollar' could also be a beautiful political manoeuvre in which we may see the transfer of whole equipment from West to East. Needless to say, the centrepiece to the FX board is looking a lot less convincing as we end the year compared with how we started. 📌 EUR - bridges are building ...eurobonds entering into the picture has been decisive, debt mutualisation is a necessary component for the currency to survive and Coronavirus was for Merkel what Britain was for Alexander Hamilton. Political bridge building will provide a nice shelter for the coming year(s) and the bias is to remain long EUR/USD. 📌 GBP - is also playable of course ... and should be one of the better isolated macro trades here. While Johnson has managed to provoke Biden, he has lovingly moved away from no-deal via Trump back to secured the 'deal' with Europe. The subordinate Johnson deal will not really be considered better by anybody in the ST and is unlocking a leg lower in GBP assets. The only prevention for the annihilation manoeuvre, as has already been pointed out, comes from the dollar devaluation which can enter into play sharply into 2022. This is an instructive example of balancing a portfolio. 📌 JPY - "if it aint' broke, don't fix it" ...the West have a lot to learn from Japan when it comes to understanding how to deal with the issues surrounding private debt from 1991. Of course, you are right to say well @ridethepig the West didn't let asset prices considerable weaken, sure, but this is why growth fizzles out. Japan knows the problem is terribly restrictive and must sacrifice fiscal policy. Paying down on private debt with wonderful imaginative gifts while using Government spending to continue the money supply flows. A risk-off inversion is/was the only way to avoid deflation and the 30 year gap is now plugged with experience. 📌 CHF - "SNB have played skilfully" ...in order to protect the currency as best it can, the CB has been granted a chance for some more direct action at 0.870x. And in the meantime, with a WhiteHouse dependent on Fed resources and conducting desperate struggles for its own existence, dollar devaluation is opening the waterfall towards 0.780x if the pivot would fail. 📌 AUD - "Commodity shortages and supply restraint" ...the prognosis for the Aussie seems quite good (and for other commodity currencies NZD and CAD more broadly). The barricades from global government have managed to disrupt supply chains and in this game, because of the relationship the Australian currency has with commodities, a test of 0.80c is needed. 📌 NZD - "keep an eye on RBNZ" ...the dollar shorts across G10 are mobile but here I must say NZD is my least favourite of the commodity currencies. The blind spots to this come from RBNZ bringing debt:income measures generally back into play, which is not helpful for credit and will potentially unlock threats of negative rates once more. 📌 CAD - "the taxing neighbour" ...is leading to direct inflows into Canada. A Biden sweep in GA is grounding the manoeuvre for the outflows, the soundness of which will give us the chance to park capital for a few quarters at most. Losing 1.280x for the yearly close is sufficient that we are able to work out the waterfall towards 1.20xx. Stay short USD versus CAD into 2021. 📌 SEK - "Classical manoeuvring" ...a very good year for SEK after the initially softer start, it rallied aggressively alongside NOK. The main line in SEK at 8.2x is within touching distance. 📌 NOK - "more volatility to come" ...with a strong indication from models to buy both NOK and SEK. Commodity shortages (including Oil) can no longer be staved off. The successful penetration of 8.7x support will unlock a -12% waterfall for 2021. =================================================================== These materials do not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell without the prior investment products or securities, including security- based swaps. These materials are provided for information purposes only and do not contain all of the information that is material to an investor. ===================================================================
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | SEK for the Yearly Close📌 SEK for the Yearly Close In general the following flows are working flawlessly, sellers have recaptured the control and are bringing about a lot of pressure on the main macro targets issued at the beginning of 2020. One indication of the weakness is clearly the USD devaluation, and is represented by the attacking side rushing to SEK. Introducing some layers to time for this just as an example for reference points using Gann, it is strategically interesting to see Feb 2022 as it is also a panic cycle in the dollar according to my models. The buyers are hanging by a thread, they are having trouble trying to pay their debts and will have to convince the creditors. At the point when this was made, Fed was seen as a deer in the headlights via Covid capitulation / flip flop and, with what immense trouble they will have now in achieving credibility after funding the Whitehouse policies in broad daylight!! Watch for the lows next week, its not quite so easy for buyers to dispose of the momentum here: if this happens we may enter into waterfall mode. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
1
A system for speculationThere are seven ways to improve the art of speculation. Latest cheatsheet: 1. 🔎 Find your price driver - build a macro argument based on probabilities How good is the quality of the price driver? If I look at the BOE and ECB, how wide is the divergence? We are looking for chalk and cheese, opposites attract. 2. 🖐 Execution is important - most get stopped out where they should enter The key to great execution is being able to assess market participation and price action. 3. 🛠 Start small and leverage winners - from one brick build a house Reverse engineer the retail blow ups! Start with a core unit, when it starts to pay, and the drivers are working, you can add some more. Treat it like a business! 4. ❓ Has anything changed - reassess trades everyday at the roll Don't think about the chart here, focus on the macro drivers. Are negative rates still in play for BOE? or have they changed their view on No-deal countermeasures? 5. ⛓ Remain nimble - do not get married to a position If we don't like what we see, if BOE turns hawkish, then we can just take the position off. Understand where is enough and admit where you are done. 6. 💫 Stay in the moment - perception matters more than reality If you can understand and outguess how perception will change, then you will be very profitable. Where's the sweet spot? How is the market positioned? 7. 😬 A life and death showdown - everyday is high noon in the markets Market participants are profoundly into the game. So much so that everything else in life seems unimportant. Threadneedle Street becomes the world as your opponent will keep trying to outmanoeuvre.
XEducation
by ridethepig
5
Two scenarios on USDNOK by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the chart: a) The major structure we can see is a Daily Ascending channel b) Currently, the price is on the lower trendline of the channel + major support resistance zone / That provides us with a strong level c) Now we have to pay attention either for a reversal movement or a continuation one d) We have established those 2 zones one for the bullish and one for the bearish direction. The idea is not to trade directly but to wait for the adequate corrective structures
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
EURNOK - Opportunities! Not my usual choice, but if there's a good clean set-up I will go ahead and analyse it further. EUR/NOK - Will the bullish momentum continue? Technical Aspect: - Pattern wise - Looks like inverse head and shoulders. - As long as its above that trend-line up the bulls are still in control - This trade idea, could reach towards 161.8 areas As the market moves in waves, nothing goes up in a straight line - Pull back is due EUR looking very over extended. There's various options you could take: - Do the pull back towards this trade - Wait for the pull back and then advance towards next resistance areas. Please keep in mind below that key trend-line up the bears are in control - only until then! Remember: Just an idea, not a recommendation. Have a great weekend ahead.
by Trade_Journal
Storebrands strong dividends to support 56 NOK price tag?Storebrands operates in banking, asset management and insurance. The insurance segment has filled up its coffers according to the solvency II regulation, meaning there should be plentiful of cash accessible in the future for dividends which should interest investors looking for good cash flow and dividends. The trade is not a super exciting trade but feels like a rather certain one at current prices which is low by historic standards. The main risk with the trade is negative interest rates which could affect the insurance operations negatively. The main opportunity is a change in investor sentiment towards companies with strong cash flow and dividends. I set my first price target at 56 Norwegian crowns (NOK) which is around recent highs. My stop loss is set beneath the trend line (see the chart) and beneath recent support at 48 NOK. Long term I believe that the Storebrand will trade higher, perhaps reach 60 NOK in 2020. However, the path there is not very likely without retracement. I will use retracements as buying opportunities provided that the overall trade fundamentals remain intact throughout 2020.
OSL:STBLong
by UnknownUnicorn3806802
Suppressed salmon prices to force MOWI ASA to 165 NOK?MOWI ASA (MOWI) is the world's largest producer of Atlantic salmon with operations in Canada, Chile and Europe. Being a salmon producer, the company is highly sensitive to the price of salmon. The price of salmon has been decreasing in 2020 and now trades at circa 5.15 euros per kilogram of salmon. The suppressed salmon price should affect revenues negatively which, short term, could press the stock price down further. Trend, stop loss and price target I believe a trend has formed from the June high 2020 to present date. If this belief is accurate, the trend line should act as a good place for a stop loss at 179.50 Norwegian crowns (NOK). In the same spirit, I set my price target at the July lows of 165.15 NOK. Risks Increase in salmon price (for example due to speculation) while MOWIs sales remains high. Decreased global salmon production while MOWIs production remains high. Increased demand of salmon, for example due to markets opening up for MOWI. Opportunities Decrease in salmon price. Decreased production, for example due to disruption in production. Trade restrictions, for example due to virus outbreak.
OSL:MOWIShort
by UnknownUnicorn3806802