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A system for speculationThere are seven ways to improve the art of speculation. Latest cheatsheet: 1. 🔎 Find your price driver - build a macro argument based on probabilities How good is the quality of the price driver? If I look at the BOE and ECB, how wide is the divergence? We are looking for chalk and cheese, opposites attract. 2. 🖐 Execution is important - most get stopped out where they should enter The key to great execution is being able to assess market participation and price action. 3. 🛠 Start small and leverage winners - from one brick build a house Reverse engineer the retail blow ups! Start with a core unit, when it starts to pay, and the drivers are working, you can add some more. Treat it like a business! 4. ❓ Has anything changed - reassess trades everyday at the roll Don't think about the chart here, focus on the macro drivers. Are negative rates still in play for BOE? or have they changed their view on No-deal countermeasures? 5. ⛓ Remain nimble - do not get married to a position If we don't like what we see, if BOE turns hawkish, then we can just take the position off. Understand where is enough and admit where you are done. 6. 💫 Stay in the moment - perception matters more than reality If you can understand and outguess how perception will change, then you will be very profitable. Where's the sweet spot? How is the market positioned? 7. 😬 A life and death showdown - everyday is high noon in the markets Market participants are profoundly into the game. So much so that everything else in life seems unimportant. Threadneedle Street becomes the world as your opponent will keep trying to outmanoeuvre.
XEducation
by ridethepig
5
Two scenarios on USDNOK by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the chart: a) The major structure we can see is a Daily Ascending channel b) Currently, the price is on the lower trendline of the channel + major support resistance zone / That provides us with a strong level c) Now we have to pay attention either for a reversal movement or a continuation one d) We have established those 2 zones one for the bullish and one for the bearish direction. The idea is not to trade directly but to wait for the adequate corrective structures
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
EURNOK - Opportunities! Not my usual choice, but if there's a good clean set-up I will go ahead and analyse it further. EUR/NOK - Will the bullish momentum continue? Technical Aspect: - Pattern wise - Looks like inverse head and shoulders. - As long as its above that trend-line up the bulls are still in control - This trade idea, could reach towards 161.8 areas As the market moves in waves, nothing goes up in a straight line - Pull back is due EUR looking very over extended. There's various options you could take: - Do the pull back towards this trade - Wait for the pull back and then advance towards next resistance areas. Please keep in mind below that key trend-line up the bears are in control - only until then! Remember: Just an idea, not a recommendation. Have a great weekend ahead.
by Trade_Journal
Storebrands strong dividends to support 56 NOK price tag?Storebrands operates in banking, asset management and insurance. The insurance segment has filled up its coffers according to the solvency II regulation, meaning there should be plentiful of cash accessible in the future for dividends which should interest investors looking for good cash flow and dividends. The trade is not a super exciting trade but feels like a rather certain one at current prices which is low by historic standards. The main risk with the trade is negative interest rates which could affect the insurance operations negatively. The main opportunity is a change in investor sentiment towards companies with strong cash flow and dividends. I set my first price target at 56 Norwegian crowns (NOK) which is around recent highs. My stop loss is set beneath the trend line (see the chart) and beneath recent support at 48 NOK. Long term I believe that the Storebrand will trade higher, perhaps reach 60 NOK in 2020. However, the path there is not very likely without retracement. I will use retracements as buying opportunities provided that the overall trade fundamentals remain intact throughout 2020.
OSL:STBLong
by UnknownUnicorn3806802
Suppressed salmon prices to force MOWI ASA to 165 NOK?MOWI ASA (MOWI) is the world's largest producer of Atlantic salmon with operations in Canada, Chile and Europe. Being a salmon producer, the company is highly sensitive to the price of salmon. The price of salmon has been decreasing in 2020 and now trades at circa 5.15 euros per kilogram of salmon. The suppressed salmon price should affect revenues negatively which, short term, could press the stock price down further. Trend, stop loss and price target I believe a trend has formed from the June high 2020 to present date. If this belief is accurate, the trend line should act as a good place for a stop loss at 179.50 Norwegian crowns (NOK). In the same spirit, I set my price target at the July lows of 165.15 NOK. Risks Increase in salmon price (for example due to speculation) while MOWIs sales remains high. Decreased global salmon production while MOWIs production remains high. Increased demand of salmon, for example due to markets opening up for MOWI. Opportunities Decrease in salmon price. Decreased production, for example due to disruption in production. Trade restrictions, for example due to virus outbreak.
OSL:MOWIShort
by UnknownUnicorn3806802
EURNOK Short - FlashcardEURNOK Short Direction: - Pair is in Bearish Order Flow and has Bearish Momentum on the H4 and Daily. - Pattern formed in the Bearish H4 OB (Order Block). Entry: - W (Double Top) Pattern Formation. - Divergence occurred. - RSI crossed volatility bands (Shark-fin), indicating a drop in the pair. - RSI near the 68 (exhaustion zone), indicating pair was overbought. - 13 EMA cross on second leg of pattern confirmed drop. This is my entry. - MBL (Market Base Line) curved downwards after entry, confirming drop. - 800 EMA showed resistance to the pattern. Exit: - 40 pip SL @ above high (top of H4 OB). - 71 pip TP @ day close. Did not go to original TP, however I do not like holding trades for more than one day, so I closed the trade before the day ended.
Short
by FotiosDimitriou