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Gold on Edge – Will NFP Trigger the Next Big Move?🚨 Gold at a Crossroads – Will NFP & White House Comments Trigger a Volatility Spike? ⚡ 🧭 Macro Overview Gold enters the US session with a mild rebound after a sharp selloff, following its historic climb to $3,500/oz. The recent drop was driven less by fundamentals and more by aggressive profit-taking, especially from retail flows in Asia, notably China. Rather than a trend reversal, this correction looks like a healthy technical reset, just ahead of two major catalysts: 1️⃣ US Non-Farm Payrolls (May edition) 2️⃣ White House remarks on tariffs and trade strategy These two factors will likely define gold’s direction heading into next week — either toward deeper support zones or a potential recovery rally into resistance. 📊 DXY & Macro Market Lens The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off its base near 98.xx, currently testing the 100.00 level. Whether the dollar strengthens further depends largely on today’s labour data and fiscal signals from Washington. Traders should remain tactically neutral, relying on intraday timeframes like H1/H2 and respecting key price structure. 🔺 Key Resistance Levels 3,260 3,275 3,285 3,312 🔻 Key Support Levels 3,244 3,230 3,215 3,200 🎯 Trade Plan – Friday 3rd May, 2025 🔵 BUY ZONE A: Entry: 3,232 – 3,230 SL: 3,226 TP: 3,236 → 3,240 → 3,244 → 3,248 → 3,252 → 3,256 → 3,260 🔵 BUY ZONE B: Entry: 3,214 – 3,212 SL: 3,208 TP: 3,218 → 3,222 → 3,226 → 3,230 → 3,235 → 3,240 🔴 SELL ZONE: Entry: 3,276 – 3,278 SL: 3,282 TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250 ⚠️ Final Notes Volatility may spike sharply during the NY session as NFP and political news collide. This is the kind of session where traders can either capitalize massively or get caught offside — stay disciplined. Avoid emotional entries — let price come to you, wait for confirmation, and stick to your TP/SL. 📣 Conclusion We’re likely in a calm-before-the-storm scenario. Gold hasn’t made its real move yet — but when it does, it’ll be swift. Prepare. Execute. Protect your capital.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
xauusd ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT REPORTADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. FORECAST 173K PREVIOUS 192K ACTUAL 152K the data released is less than forecast and also less than previous report, which is too much bearish for dollar. its impact may show up after the us market is opened
OANDA:XAUUSD
by realmillionairefx
Nonfarm prediction April 5, 2024Gold fell back after an unsuccessful attempt to stabilize above $2,300. Traders withdrew some profits after the strong rally. Gold is still in an overbought state so there may be more downward momentum in the near future. Prediction information from Nonfarm is currently inconsistent on one side when the Average Income Index / Hour is growing strongly at 0.3% but Nonfarm is predicted to decrease compared to the previous period and Nonfarm prediction ability decreases. is extremely high when unemployment claims are at a high level and because of this, the Fed is also highly likely to reduce interest rates to attract more jobs.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MrTrongVo
The US dollar index (DXY) hints at a swing low ahead of NFPThe US dollar was the strongest major currency on Wednesday, supported by rising US yields and softer import/export data (which points to a softer global economy). And whilst the prices paid component of the ISM services PMI softened to a 20-month low of 68.8, it remains historically high relative to its long-term average of 59.8 - which suggests the aggressive Fed tightening is yet to make an impact on the inflationary forces of the robust services sector. The main economic event for the dollar this week is tomorrow's NFP report. There was some excitement that it may come in soft due to the notable fall in job openings (-9.8%), but ADP employment came in slight above expectations at 208k yesterday. As for the US dollar index (DXY) it is showing the potential for a swing low to form. As noted earlier this week, the bias was for a deeper pullback on the US dollar and to then look for evidence of a swing low. Given the RSI (2) moved below 10 (overbought) ahead of a bullish inside bar occurring above the 2002 highs, I suspect we are at or near a swing low for the dollar. This is also backed up by the fact US yields are also seemingly trying to print a swing low. And a strong NFP report tomorrow could help solidify this near-term bullish bias. The bias remains bullish above 109.27 (below the small consolidation prior to its breakout) and for a move towards 114.0.
TVC:DXYLong
by CityIndex
Dollar Strengthens on NFP DataThe US dollar has gained incredible strength off of the Non Farm Payroll numbers, which came at a headline beat with employment at 3.5%. This suggests that the markets feel that the Fed is now more emboldened to hike rates even further at their September meeting. The DXY is still holding the range established when it started its sideways corrective phase after the pull back from the low 109's. We dipped down into the 105's, and subsequently pivoted back to the 106's, with 107.20 still an upper bound. If we retrace this rally, then expect support at 106.13 or the 105's.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What Today's Employment Data Means for Stocks and the FedNon Farm Payrolls introduced some volatility in stocks. The numbers came in hot, with a headline beat and unemployment at 3.5% . The S&P 500 had already edged higher, reaching our target of 4178, and establishing value between 4144 and 4178. The NFP data release introduced some volatility, with a small selloff extending past 4122 into the vacuum zone down to 4068. It appears the figures were priced in already, and stocks may be correcting because of that. Also, the strong numbers give the Fed more justification to hike rates in September. If stocks fall further watch for support at 4068, but be mindful of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Await Non Farm Payrolls DataAs we suggested in the previous report, stocks are generally ranging until news from one of the most significant data points traders can have: Non Farm Payrolls. This is particularly significant because a lower than expected reading will signal that tapering from the Fed is likely off the table until well into next year. In a Central Bank driven economy, this will drive stock prices higher. Currently, the S&P is ranging in a well defined value area from 4521 to 4545, though we are seeing a clear affinity for the upper bound of this range. Recall that 4564 is our next target, which should be easily within reach depending on how the markets digest NFP. We have support from 4504 and 4487 below, if volatility kicks in.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Non-farm Payrolls - Data Expected to Be Stunning!Following last week's Fed meeting, it was clear that the central bank was only putting off hawkish rhetoric, but was not ruling it out in the near future. Consequently, the basis for expectations is there, we just need data that would indicate that the economy continues to grow. The hope is the U.S. unemployment report coming out this Friday. It is expected that job growth, the most important indicator in terms of the Fed's post-pandemic policy impact could show a figure close to a million. If the economy creates more jobs than forecast, the odds increase sharply that the Fed will warn in August about a policy adjustment - a reduction in the pace of asset purchases (treasuries and mortgage-backed securities), probably this year. In that case, long-dated bonds would become slightly less profitable, given the approval of the infrastructure plan, which would require new borrowing, investors could start exiting treasuries en masse. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Last data: 850K Consensus Forecast: 880K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY Last data: 0.3% Consensus forecast: 0.3% Unemployment Rate Past data: 5.9% Consensus forecast: 5.7% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
Potential Sniper Shot off the 1.29 Handle - USDCADCurrently I'm bullish but I'll be bearish off the 1.29 handle. This morning we had fairly decent ADP figures from the US in at +174k. Typically on a monthly basis the ADP provides a leading clue as to what we might expect with the following NFP figures. My guess is that Non-Farm on Friday will come in hot and could add some strength to the greenback. I don't think the dollar will remain strong for too long though if we do in fact get some strength following the report. For that reason, I'm placing pending sell limit orders off the 1.29 area in an attempt to snipe the intra-day top. ------------------------- Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ... If you like my analysis:) Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
Long
by Michael_Harding
The Best Way to Trade Nonfarm Payrolls!The unprecedented world wide Coronavirus pandemic has put the markets on edge and set expectations really low for virtually all financial data points. Considering this, Non Farm Payrolls came in very strong, or at least not as bad as expected. Stocks reacted accordingly, and this tutorial is about how stocks react to strong numbers. This occurs in three phases: Phase 1: Initial reaction - In the event of a number that the markets perceive as 'strong', stocks will rally accordingly. This usually continues until they hit a Fibonacci level or other technical level, or traders take profits. Phase 2: Retracement/Squeeze - The rally discussed above usually will continue to around 9:00am or so. Don't forget that NFP comes out at 8:30am which is before the North American open. At this point, futures traders have taken profit, and stock traders are gearing up for the open. Watch the Kovach OBV to make sure that this retracement is not a reversal! Phase 3: Continuation at open - At 9:30am, the US markets open, and stock traders clamour into trades pushing the markets up again. Stocks could retrace later on in the day, or set the stage for strong growth in the subsequent week. Hopefully this tutorial can help you set up for some good trades if you see this behavior! If you want to learn more, check us out at Ghostsquawk!
FX:SPX500Education
by quantguy
Either which way for NZD/USD - its all on 13:30!!!!NZD/USD have been locked in a titanic battle for control of this chart for the last 8 hours or so. Technically we should break south to relieve overbought conditions on H1 timeframe but with the key Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate out of the USA due at 13:30 GMT, this pair ain't goin' nowhere for 3 hours. The risk it has to be said is that the numbers which will be the worst on record will miss target and be worse than expected. This could induce heavy dollar selling but if the numbers come in as expected we could see a USD bounce. I'm positioned SHORT because of the technicals but I have an ultra tight STOP which will be tightened more before 13:30. This could be very interesting!
by theforexportal
SIGNAL GOLD ,before imfomation nonfarmpayrollYesterday Chile unexpectedly announced the cancellation of hosting of APEC due to concerns over protests and riots. Delayed trade agreements can also greatly affect. There are new concerns that even if the first phase agreement can be reached, the next phase will be very difficult. The dollar is generally weakening Under inflation this does not provide support for the greenback, as it is pressured by selling after FOMC. It is natural for the Fed to cut interest rates, the market is not surprised, the market is considering what FED's directions after the meeting, but recently the US President Donald Trump said: the US and China will soon announce a venue, where he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will sign a trade deal this period is likely to have the effect of a slight gold depreciation effect. The chairman of the Fed said it would not raise interest rates until the US economy stabilized and inflation increased. hope. Personal spending increased by 0.2%, equivalent to US $ 24.3 billion, also in line with expectations. The headline PCE price index dropped to 1.3% yoy, down from 1.4% yoy, below the expectation of 1.4% yoy. Core PCE price index decreased to 1.7% yoy, down from 1.8% yoy, in line with expectations. With quite good economic data, the fact that nonfarm SparaFX today has been informed that the USD will have a slight adjustment. Technical analysis GOLD on the H4 frame has completely broken the downtrend before breaking the extended trendline, the buy strategy yesterday was quite successful when targeting the 1505 area. supply zone and trendline on d1 at the same time, however, with the current scenario SpartaFX receives GOLD most likely to increase first and then decrease later, in particular, it will move to 1520-1522 area. was. Here we give some reference scenarios for you guys !! GOLD sell 1520-1521 SL 1524 TP 1506 Consider buying around 1505-1506 SL 1500 TP 1531 I wish you a successful weekend trading, please note the absolute compliance with stoploss. Goodluck
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MCHTRADING
1
EURUSD Trading HALTED in lieu of Non Farm Payrolls?Since price topped off at 1.09 the bears have been relentless in their pursuit of driving the price back down to previous lows. In the first week of April the EURUSD retraced over 40% with almost no resistance and just in the last 72 hours price has taken another 15% dive. Currently, price is consolidating between 1.07 and 1.065 or in Fibb terms .50 and .618. As we approach tomorrow mornings (Friday @ 8:30am EST) news release of Non Farm Payrolls , it seems that the major players have either reduced position sizes and/or exited their positions completely. These actions/precautions appear to be creating the dreaded barb wire consolidation that we see being produced since March 31st. What should you do? This type of movement is not terrible for scalpers as price has created VERY significant support and resistance at both 1.065 and 1.07. Due to the nature of this pattern I would suggest sitting it out until after the news releases and inevitable breakout that will occur, but if you HAD to enter for the sake of having an open position I would place orders to sell in the 1.068 area and orders to BUY in the 1.065 area, with profit target being set at the opposing price side of the range. You like breakouts - great, I do too and I'm anticipating a big one! We may see the classic NFP release where price moves hard in one direction then totally reverses direction leaving a BIG UGLY wick candle and half your account behind. So, in order to avoid that last part I said, wait for price to move and CLOSE past either 1.07 to BUY or 1.064 to SELL. Good Luck!
by MrTakeProfit