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Nonfarmpayroll

USDOLLAR: NON-FARM PAYROLLS - DATA EXPECTED TO BE STUNNING ! 🔔The April U.S. jobs report partially justified the Fed's reluctance to adjust the parameters of the QE, as the economy created only 266,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. However, commodity markets continue to call out that price pressures have reached levels that pose a real danger to the economy. Frenzied inflation is hard to get under control. Last week's released CPI figure reflected a 0.8% jump in prices, while experts had predicted a 0.2% increase. And while Fed officials are confident that they can handle the pressure with monetary policy tools, there is no guarantee of that. Moreover, it is monetary and fiscal policy that fuels inflationary pressures. Twenty-two U.S. states are eliminating federal unemployment benefits. Today, U.S. citizens are paid $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits as part of the Biden bailout package. But these payments have resulted in many Americans receiving more in benefits than they would have earned at work. Quite naturally, the desire to look for work disappears. Such negative effects go a long way toward explaining the very contradictory statistics in the United States: On the one hand, business activity indices are off the charts, companies are willing to hire workers and produce more. On the other hand, unemployment rose in April compared to the previous month. Since the beginning of March, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time has fallen by more than a third. Over the same period, the total number of people receiving benefits has fallen only 12.7%. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Last data: 266K Consensus Forecast: 650K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. Unemployment Rate Past data: 6.1% Consensus forecast: 5.9% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
DJ:USDOLLARLong
by FOREXN1
11
US: Strong economic data lift stocks to record highsUS Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. The March Manufacturing PMI registered a record high 64.7 percent, and the March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent. As we mentioned before, the US economy in Q2 would be benefited by the Manufacturing and Services industry. MM Analysis US Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. In particular the education and health services up by 101k and the professional and business services up by 66k, showing that the vacinnation has helped the SMEs to recover. Construction ( + 110k ) and Manufacturing ( +53k ) industries has also backed strong support on the US economy recovery. The March Manufacturing PMI registered 64.7 percent, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. New orders 68 percent, Production 68.1 percent and Backlog of Orders 67.5 percent are in a fast growing direction. Customers’ Inventories 29.9% has been at historically low levels. Besides the above indexes, a low inventory-sale ratio on January shows that manufacturing cycle would continue due to the capital injection by the US government. The March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent, an increase of 8.4 percentage points from the February reading of 55.3 percent. Employment 57.2%, comments from respondents include: “Have recalled everyone put on waivers and made new hires” and “Additional employees added to service the need of new customers at new locations.” Showing a high probability for corporate to hire more and a optimistic outlook on the labor market, boosting consumer confidence and the US Q2 economy.
DJ:DJI
by MacroMicro_Global
Potential Sniper Shot off the 1.29 Handle - USDCADCurrently I'm bullish but I'll be bearish off the 1.29 handle. This morning we had fairly decent ADP figures from the US in at +174k. Typically on a monthly basis the ADP provides a leading clue as to what we might expect with the following NFP figures. My guess is that Non-Farm on Friday will come in hot and could add some strength to the greenback. I don't think the dollar will remain strong for too long though if we do in fact get some strength following the report. For that reason, I'm placing pending sell limit orders off the 1.29 area in an attempt to snipe the intra-day top. ------------------------- Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ... If you like my analysis:) Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
Long
by Michael_Harding
What to Expect on NonFarm FridayStocks got smacked down to relative lows. We may be forming the first shoulder and head of a head and shoulders pattern. Watch 3396. If the S&P can't break this high, then we will have our second shoulder. The neckline will be solidly established at 3308. The Kovach OBV is trending down, so we may not even see this H&S form before a breakdown. We do have several levels of support before that at 3293 and 3279. There are several more before 3200, which is a very strong technical and psychological number. Nonfarm payrolls today will play a huge roll in whether the S&P can keep current levels or dive further.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
The Best Way to Trade Nonfarm Payrolls!The unprecedented world wide Coronavirus pandemic has put the markets on edge and set expectations really low for virtually all financial data points. Considering this, Non Farm Payrolls came in very strong, or at least not as bad as expected. Stocks reacted accordingly, and this tutorial is about how stocks react to strong numbers. This occurs in three phases: Phase 1: Initial reaction - In the event of a number that the markets perceive as 'strong', stocks will rally accordingly. This usually continues until they hit a Fibonacci level or other technical level, or traders take profits. Phase 2: Retracement/Squeeze - The rally discussed above usually will continue to around 9:00am or so. Don't forget that NFP comes out at 8:30am which is before the North American open. At this point, futures traders have taken profit, and stock traders are gearing up for the open. Watch the Kovach OBV to make sure that this retracement is not a reversal! Phase 3: Continuation at open - At 9:30am, the US markets open, and stock traders clamour into trades pushing the markets up again. Stocks could retrace later on in the day, or set the stage for strong growth in the subsequent week. Hopefully this tutorial can help you set up for some good trades if you see this behavior! If you want to learn more, check us out at Ghostsquawk!
FX:SPX500Education
by quantguy
Best Ideas for Stocks on NFP FridayStocks are absolutely crushing it, continuously making new highs. Watch for a bit of a squeeze, especially before nonfarm payrolls. As with bonds, a bumper number could set stocks rallying further, just watch for profit taking. A bad print may also be good for stocks because it would warrant more intervention from the Federal Reserve. If we do see a pullback, watch for support around 3100 from technical and Fibonacci Levels. Note that the Kovach Momentum indicators are solidly bullish so wait for a dip to enter a long if you are bullish.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Either which way for NZD/USD - its all on 13:30!!!!NZD/USD have been locked in a titanic battle for control of this chart for the last 8 hours or so. Technically we should break south to relieve overbought conditions on H1 timeframe but with the key Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate out of the USA due at 13:30 GMT, this pair ain't goin' nowhere for 3 hours. The risk it has to be said is that the numbers which will be the worst on record will miss target and be worse than expected. This could induce heavy dollar selling but if the numbers come in as expected we could see a USD bounce. I'm positioned SHORT because of the technicals but I have an ultra tight STOP which will be tightened more before 13:30. This could be very interesting!
by theforexportal
The DOWn JONES On Schedule For May 6th-8th Reversal?Of course we can reverse sooner, as I predicted previously, but this is what makes the most sense today and falls in line with some old charts... Let us assume that the money printing is the rising tide. If the market goes up on average this week and or at least follows the rules for a TD9 printing, we will have a potential reversal on that indicator (not a big deal). Normally, I wouldn't be looking for this speculative of a play. But if we get to the $25,200-$27,100 zone, this hits my targets on previous charts and has strong confluence with the FIB Zones. I then decided to ask the question what type of PLANNED news events around May 6th-8th that would cause this reversal within the fundamental narrative. NEWS TO EXPECT May 8th *Non-Farm Payroll *Unemployment Report *Average Hourly Earnings *Wholesale Inventories Please do your own due diligence and remember this is NOT trading advice.
DJ:DJI
by ChartProphet
4