EURUSD NFP Strategy: Into the DipTrade tension between the US and China are contributing to the recent USD strength at the time of this writing. New tariffs on China may lead to a retaliation, causing some nervousness in global markets.
As a result the focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may be limited, however, some reaction is often seen when the US employment figures are released.
Initiating a trade at market price prior to the NFP may require a larger protective stop due to the volatile market conditions that are often seen upon the release of the figures.
Our strategy is fairly straightforward, a buy limit order may be more appropriate. I highlighted on the chart the key levels in EURUSD. Do note that this setup is for experienced technical traders only.
An appropriate entry price may be at 1.1547, protective stop layered at 1.1500, targeting 1.1620.
The estimated duration for the strategy is no longer than 30 - 45 minutes. The risk ratio is poor but it is a short-term strategy. I must also highlight the risk of exercising the strategy as significant volatility may be seen. Over-leveraging is not encouraged. The aim of the protective stop is to contain losses rather than prevent losses.
I will rarely post trade ideas with an entry, stop and take profit in tradingview, this is an exception. In an event EURUSD will continue trading lower prior to the NFP where it is only 40 pips from the entry price I suggest to cancel the order. In an event EURUSD does not trigger the entry within 15 minutes after the release I suggest to cancel the buy limit order.
Nonfarmpayrolls
EUR/USD idea for next weekNext week would be slow because of waiting for ECB Monetary Policy meeting and Nonfarm Payrolls on Thursday and Friday therefore. But on the days we can see a lot of volume for our market and we will get a right way in pair. We must be concentrate fully on Thursday and Friday as much as we can, because break 1.22 and go and go down will give to us bearish trend for weeks, but it's just 10% for that. I think we will get a good news from ECB and our pair will grow on Thursday and we will confirm by low Nonfarm Payrolls results on Friday and 1.25-1.27 seems for next week 9-13 April.
We can feel free to BUY on 1.230, 1.235 and 1.240 also for next week. But if we break 1.23 and go down, dont be scare and wait for Thursday's and Friday's news. Bad ECB desicions and pretty good Nonfarm Payrolls will broke down pair to 1.20. Otherwise, good ECB policy and bad Nonfarm Payrolls will push pair to 1.25 as easy as possible.
AUDUSD ShortGood Evening Traders,
This is my analysis for AUDUSD Nonfarm Payroll release. I believe USD will strengthen tomorrow. I will not place any trades for tomorrow due to the fact how volatile its going to be. As you can see in the charts basic price action has occurred. We have a bearish trend, prices broke support and has turned into resistance. I placed a slightly big SL due to market makers looking to sweep out the market. Good luck everyone
US NFP :USDJPY rejected @ 114.90 level 4 times, may be 5th time?Dollar had a longest winning streak in an year's time against yen. Looking both at fundamentals and Technicals pair is in corrective structure since Jan 2017. We believe that US$ will break upwards unless real risk aversion mode prevails market. Such an event is right on the tap, none other but US Non-farm payrolls report, tomorrow.
If we look at Jan 2017 labor department report, highlighted in red on the chart, right after the december rate hike. Inflation element of report was poor. Market was expecting .3% increase in avg hourly earnings. Not only report missed it and printed .1% increase but adding insult to the injury previous month .4% increase in avg hourly earnings was revised down to .2%.
In last one year US has generated on average 185K job/month. Market expects the 200K a bit above than median average. But as we mentioned the most important element of tomorrow's NFP would be avg-hourly earnings. If missed, market definitely wouldn't like it 3rd time and dollar bulls may have to hold their reins.
WAIT AND SEE IS BEST THE STRATEGY.....
USD/ DXY: NFP FAILS TO ANSWER SEPT HIKE & FED LACKER SPEECHThe USD Jobs report missed expectations across the board with the print, earnings and URate the like. Market reaction was interesting to say the least, initally we said dollar trade aggresssively on the offer, however not for long. it was USD bulls who look to have closed the day winning. On reflection this makes sense given fed funds rate held up relatively well only shedding 3pcts, and 150k jobs is still well above the 50-75k target needed to maintain employment levels which have been stated by a few Feds already as "at full employment".
USD positioning:
Initially I was a $yen bear, however offers there were squeezed out on the break above 104 likely on yen supply as risk markets moved higher and some dollar demand as jobs added was significantly more than Fed Mester said this week was enough to maintain the economy at full employment (50-100k jobs). Instead my focus now has moved to Equities market where I added SPX shorts at 2180 average price and hedged some of that exposure with some pre-existing Apple longs from earlier in the week when EU Tax allegations brought the stock into the low 105s.
USD FX trading from here imo will remain very choppy as there once again remains no clear consensus on medium-run positioning/ further hikes from the Fed as US data continues to trade below expectations, thus I will adjust my strategy to suit (tone down FX positioning) whilst look to add some cross asset positions instead. I will however continue to be on the lookout and post if there is any statistical opportunities, as these are tradable in any environment.
$Yen I will also watch closely and also GBP Services PMI data on Monday will be vital to STG trades.
Fed Lacker Speech Highlights:
Fed's Lacker: Fed Rates Should Be 'Significantly Higher' Based On Rules
Lacker: Rate Benchmarks Are Good Guide For Setting Fed Policy
Lacker: Economy Continues To Make Progress On Jobs, Inflation
Lacker: Current Jobless Rate Essentially At Full Employment Level
Lacker: Taylor Rule Points To 3.3% Fed Funds Rate For Third Quarter
Lacker: Economy Adding Jobs At Double Pace Needed For Population Growth
Lacker: Inflation Moving Back To 2% Price Target
Lacker: Fed Could Deal With Inflation Problem With Rapid Rate Increases
Lacker: Rapid Rate Increases Would Cause Pain To Economy
Lacker: More Attention Should Be Paid To Inflation Risks
Fed's Lacker: Level of Discouraged Workers Not Historically Elevated
Lacker: Some Uncertainty Around Exact Level of Full Employment
Lacker: Reverse Repos in Place as Long as Needed, May Not Need in Future